A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

Maybe faves to win AL- maybe.

 

The Dodgers and Padres are stacked and also adding pieces.

 

The Astros look great on paper, especially if they add some pen help.

 

The Astros added RHP Kendall Graveman to their pen.

 

The Dodgers haven’t been any more active than the Red Sox so far.

 

The big movers to date are the Rays, who been buying, selling and renting, and the Padres and Mets…

[notin]

Yes, I'd say the 2015 trade of Price is a valid comp.

 

Not Machado? Not a pitcher but absolutely a top tier addition who does have Hall of Fame potential himself…

[Bellhorn04]

Not Machado? Not a pitcher but absolutely a top tier addition who does have Hall of Fame potential himself…

 

In that Price trade, the Tigers got Matthew Boyd along with Norris, plus another player.

[notin]

Yes, I'd say the 2015 trade of Price is a valid comp. Jays also got Matthew Boyd along with Norris and another player.

 

Boyd was unranked. That he has worked out better than the flop Norris is inconsequential for this discussion.

 

If the Sox traded Jeter Downs and Jon Arauz for Scherzer, it is theoretically possible Arauz could become an All Star and Downs never got out of AAA. But the more valuable piece at the time will always be Downs…

[Bellhorn04]

Not Machado? Not a pitcher but absolutely a top tier addition who does have Hall of Fame potential himself…

 

I'm fine with Machado, but sometimes I have to agree with our old friend Slasher's "pitching = parades" credo...

[Bellhorn04]

Boyd was unranked. That he has worked out better than the flop Norris is inconsequential for this discussion.

 

Well, OK, the Tigers got Norris plus 2 lottery tickets or whatever. That's still more than getting Norris.

 

All in all, it seems like a valid template for a Scherzer deal.

[notin]

A USA TODAY Sports analysis of 94 July trade-deadline deals from 2015 to 2019 that shipped 204 prospects from buyers to sellers confirms a strongly held feeling throughout the industry – that teams are holding their top prospects tighter than ever, making it exceedingly difficult to extract value for star players.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/07/26/mlb-trade-deadline-history-dealing-prospects-rumors/8075954002/

 

Wasn’t that exactly my point?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Whether or not you think Price’s significantly younger age at the time was a factor is debatable. Obviously extending 30 year old Price felt like a smarter move than extending 37yo Scherzer will be,

 

... I started to think a Scherzer trade and subsequent extension would mean the Sox deemed he'd be part of their sustainable future. Then I saw your mention of Price, and that brought back uncomfortable flashbacks to Dombro's plan going into 2019, counting on a veteran but aging rotation fraught with recent postseason strain.

 

So now I'm thinking no to Scherzer. Bloom is just as likely to seek and swing an unexpected deal for an under-30 controllable arm that BTV over-Vs.

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with Machado, but sometimes I have to agree with our old friend Slasher's "pitching = parades" credo...

 

Machado also struck out to lose the WS.

[mvp 78]

Wasn’t that exactly my point?

 

Yes, I was agree with you.

[d-money]

Maybe faves to win AL- maybe.

 

The Dodgers and Padres are stacked and also adding pieces.

 

The Astros look great on paper, especially if they add some pen help.

 

Really? The stros are the only team that we have trouble beating.

[mvp 78]

Really? The stros are the only team that we have trouble beating.

 

Yes, the Astros are a weird matchup for the Sox for sure.

[d-money]

I don’t want scherzer. If he was 32 i would trade for him but the guy’s 37.I am not giving a highly touted prospect for a rental. He prefers the west coast as well. What a clown. Does he want to pitch for the dodgers? Edited July 28, 2021 by d-money

[d-money]

Yes, the Astros are a weird matchup for the Sox for sure.

 

Funny thing is that the Yankees don’t have trouble beating them. Baseball is very weird like that.

[d-money]

Frankly i prefer Berrios or Jon Gray.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Frankly i prefer Berrios or Jon Gray.

 

Yup, it would seem to go against everything Bloom has stood for if he gave up a good prospect for an old pitcher who was shut down early in his last start with a sore arm (and whose team won't let him pitch again until he's traded).

[mvp 78]

Frankly i prefer Berrios or Jon Gray.

 

I don't like Gray's stats away from Coors. Berrios will cost more than Max.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Scherzer can help someone, probably on the west coast, but would be astonished if he came to Boston.

 

That said, if WAR has any value, the current strengths of the Sox are the bullpen and the lineup and decidedly not the rotation even though it is to their credit that all five (Eovaldi, Pivetta, Perez, Richards, and ERod) have started 19 or 20 games apiece.

 

When and if Sale returns with the same ability he had when he arrived in Boston, the Sox mantra could well be, "Eovaldi and Sale, then pray for hail."

[moonslav59]

Really? The stros are the only team that we have trouble beating.

 

Yes, that's why I said maybe AL faves, as the Astros look better on paper, despite their pen issues and have beaten us. (They will likely add some pen, help at the deadline.)

 

Scherzer may make us the AL faves, but not faves to beat an NL west team that wins the NL. (Note: they will all improve at the deadline, too.)

 

[moonslav59]

Really? The stros are the only team that we have trouble beating.

 

The White Sox are tough, too.

[notin]

Machado also struck out to lose the WS.

 

… which means he wasn’t a rental?

[notin]

The White Sox are tough, too.

 

The White Sox are far scarier than the Astros. They’ve been dominating the AL Central without arguably their two best hitters.

 

One just came back and the other is expected back soon…

[moonslav59]

The White Sox are far scarier than the Astros. They’ve been dominating the AL Central without arguably their two best hitters.

 

One just came back and the other is expected back soon…

 

The AL is no cake walk.

 

This is scary good: HOU OPS leaders

.878 Alvarez

.856 Brantley

.856 Altuve

.847 Gurriel

.837 Correa

.848 Tucker

.789 McCormick

.787 Bregman

.785 A Diaz

(.688 catcher J Castro)

 

Incredibly balanced lineup.

 

Their rotation (listed by most GS'd)

 

3.48 Greinke (21)

3.23 McCullers (17)

3.19 Garcia (17)

3.38 Urquidy (14 on IL)

4.23 Odorizzi (12-had a real bad start to year)

2.97 F Valdez (11)

2.82 Javier (9)

 

Their pen is a huge weakness, but they may trade to improve it.

[mvp 78]

… which means he wasn’t a rental?

 

What?

 

Poster 1: Pitching equals parades.

Poster 2: Manny Machado struck out to lose the WS. (Hitting doesn't equal parades)

Poster 3: Manny Machado wasn't a rental?

[mvp 78]

The White Sox are far scarier than the Astros. They’ve been dominating the AL Central without arguably their two best hitters.

 

One just came back and the other is expected back soon…

 

They get to beat up on those s***** Central teams.

[moonslav59]

The White Sox are far scarier than the Astros. They’ve been dominating the AL Central without arguably their two best hitters.

 

One just came back and the other is expected back soon…

 

The CWS offense looks pretty balanced, but not like HOU and nobody above .825. Here are their OPS numbers in order by most PAs:

 

.796 Abreu

.799 Moncada

.779 Anderson

.770 Vaughn

.671 Garcia

.732 Mercedes

.824 Grandal (on 10 day IL)

.642 Eaton

.774 Madrigal

under 200 PAs

.694 Collins

.578 Mendrick

.738 Goodwin

.644 Hamilton

 

Here is their strength: SP'ers by GS'd

4.14 Cease (21)

3.78 Giolito (20)

4.32 Keuchel (19)

1.91 L Lynn (18)

2.24 Rodon (17)

(only 6 starts from the non top 5, including Kopech at 1.56 in 40 IP.)

 

Pen OPS Against (listed by most PAs against)

 

.517 L Hendricks

.802 Heuer

.643 Ruiz

.633 Bummer

.625 Crochet

.859 Foster

.522 Kopech

[Bellhorn04]

They get to beat up on those s***** Central teams.

 

As Nick posted recently, the White Sox are below .500 vs. teams above .500.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers have 13 guys with over 135 PAs. Here are their OPS in order of most PAs:

 

.891 Turner

.876 Taylor

.876 Betts (IL)

.972 Muncy

.656 Lux (IL)

.839 W Smith (Catcher)

.853 Pollock

under 200 PAs

.701 Beaty

.555 Bellinger

.783 Seager (60 day IL)

.685 McKinstrey

.689 A Barnes (back-up C)

.744 Pujols

 

Rotation by most GS'd

 

3.54 Urias

2.31 Buehler

3.39 Kershaw (IL)

2.59 Bauer (toast)

2.38 Gonsolin

3.35 Price (some as RP'er)

2.74 May

 

Their pen has been criticized, but here are the OPS Against numbers in order of most PAs against in the pen:

 

.539 Treinen

.571 Jansen

.674 Gonzalez

.613 J Kelly

.424 J Nelson

.863 Price

.616 Bickford

(nobody else has more tan 85 PAs against)

 

LA is a pitcher's park.

[notin]

As Nick posted recently, the White Sox are below .500 vs. teams above .500.

 

But they also have been without Jimenez and Robert all season. Would the Sox be above .500 against better teams without, say, Bogaerts and JD all year??

[Nick]

But they also have been without Jimenez and Robert all season. Would the Sox be above .500 against better teams without, say, Bogaerts and JD all year??

 

And we've been without Sale all year. Tanner Houck has been in and out. Brasier has been out all year. What is your point?