A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

I'll take Houck over Porcello all day long, every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. Besides, Porcello was just one of a zillion starters the Sox have acquired (and not developed in the Sox system) over the years, and he doesn't come close to the good ones. His career ERA is 4.40, for crying out loud, and in the 5 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.92, 3.15, 4.65, 4.28, and 5.52. His cumulative WAR in 12 seasons is a tiny 20.2, but his cumulative salary is sizable $127M.

 

This!

 

I love you Max.

[iortiz]

We can afford to trade a couple guys that may not make the 40 man, next year- guys like Potts, Rosario, Chavis or someone we might be surprised by Bloom thinking we can do without.

 

I don't see him trading anyone very promising.

 

I think the highest he goes is maybe Groome or Ward.

 

Agree! 100%

[notin]

We can afford to trade a couple guys that may not make the 40 man, next year- guys like Potts, Rosario, Chavis or someone we might be surprised by Bloom thinking we can do without.

 

I don't see him trading anyone very promising.

 

I think the highest he goes is maybe Groome or Ward.

 

I'd actually take Ward off that list, since he's a bit of an issue right now. He's hadly even a lock for the 40 man roster in December.

 

Groome, Potts, and Rosario are probably the headliners on the 40 man roster, with Chavis and Arauz available to anyone interested. If he does actually deal a promising prospect, a situation I agree is unlikely, I will nominate Gilberto Jimenez as my candidate..

[notin]

Or showcasing him .

 

I doubt one AAA start makes for much of a showcase...

[moonslav59]

I'd actually take Ward off that list, since he's a bit of an issue right now. He's hadly even a lock for the 40 man roster in December.

 

Groome, Potts, and Rosario are probably the headliners on the 40 man roster, with Chavis and Arauz available to anyone interested. If he does actually deal a promising prospect, a situation I agree is unlikely, I will nominate Gilberto Jimenez as my candidate..

 

Jimenez is hard to value.

 

His upside may keep Bloom from dealing him.

 

Ward may not even need rule 5 protection, but he may still be wanted by some GM

[moonslav59]

I doubt one AAA start makes for much of a showcase...

 

Not the one he just had.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox History...

 

Only Teddy Ballgame and Tony C hit 100 HRs by the same age as Devers.

[vegasbob]

Red Sox History...

 

Only Teddy Ballgame and Tony C hit 100 HRs by the same age as Devers.

 

Love me some Teddy B. and Tony C was robbed of an HoF career. Rafael is a real chance at a big time player

[Nick]

I get excited watching Duran play. Not sure how he will turn out but HE SURE LOOKS LIKE HE BELONGS. I don't see him with his heads down even after striking out. He's got the swag.

 

I also know many of you are down on Rios. But he's a guy Bloom knows well. He has some command issues but who doesn't? From my perspective he's ahead of Workman and Andriese and has tons of upside.

 

Workman as usual, got hammered facing the leadoff hitter in the ninth. Luckily, it was right at someone. Even with 6-1 lead, I was holding my breath.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I get excited watching Duran play. Not sure how he will turn out but HE SURE LOOKS LIKE HE BELONGS. I don't see him with his heads down even after striking out. He's got the swag.

 

I also know many of you are down on Rios. But he's a guy Bloom knows well. He has some command issues but who doesn't? From my perspective he's ahead of Workman and Andriese and has tons of upside.

 

Workman as usual, got hammered facing the leadoff hitter in the ninth. Luckily, it was right at someone. Even with 6-1 lead, I was holding my breath.

 

Agreed; Duran does seem to play with the kind of confidence that you find in quality major league players. It is worth noting that his ground rule double in game 2 against Cole was really the first big hit off of Cole in that game. From that point forward, things went downhill for the Yankees and Cole. It was Duran who opened that wound, showed the rest of his teammates that Cole could be hit and hit hard. I thought it was a great moment.

 

Cora seems to like Rios and seems to have confidence in him. I was shocked when Rios came back for a second inning of work (the Red Sox were up 3-1) but he gave Cora another solid inning. I agree that Rios is ahead of Workman and Andriese in terms of roster priority. Moreover, Rios has an option remaining and so he will remain with the Red Sox this year--he will be sent down before he is released. I suppose there is a chance that the Red Sox will not have room for Rios on the 40 man roster after the season, but that will also depend on what they do at the trade deadline. While Rios has a chance to remain on the team for next season, Workman and Andrisese will definitely be gone.

[oldtimer]

Agreed; Duran does seem to play with the kind of confidence that you find in quality major league players. It is worth noting that his ground rule double in game 2 against Cole was really the first big hit off of Cole in that game. From that point forward, things went downhill for the Yankees and Cole. It was Duran who opened that wound, showed the rest of his teammates that Cole could be hit and hit hard. I thought it was a great moment.

 

Cora seems to like Rios and seems to have confidence in him. I was shocked when Rios came back for a second inning of work (the Red Sox were up 3-1) but he gave Cora another solid inning. I agree that Rios is ahead of Workman and Andriese in terms of roster priority. Moreover, Rios has an option remaining and so he will remain with the Red Sox this year--he will be sent down before he is released. I suppose there is a chance that the Red Sox will not have room for Rios on the 40 man roster after the season, but that will also depend on what they do at the trade deadline. While Rios has a chance to remain on the team for next season, Workman and Andrisese will definitely be gone.

 

Actually, Kike hit the line drive high off the wall just before Duran hit the rope to center for ground rule double. Too early to tell about Duran but he looked good in the field, on the bases and at bat. Good start for him and for the Sox. I agree that Rios has the stuff to be good but his command leaves a lot to be desired.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello only pitched 5 seasons for the Sox, after which they were eager to let him go on his way. I just like Houck more than Porcello because Porcello drove me nuts because he didn't have one single really good pitch nor all that much command. I entirely agree we have no idea what Houck will amount to.

 

Porcello didn't have command? How absurd. He pitched 2,096 major league innings and averaged 2.1 walks per 9 innings. He was a strike thrower all the way.

 

I think maybe Max, you don't appreciate how hard major league baseball is.

[dgalehouse]

Everything is coming up roses right now. And the Yankees are dejected , demoralized and defeated. Pour it on. Sweep them away.

[moonslav59]

Love me some Teddy B. and Tony C was robbed of an HoF career. Rafael is a real chance at a big time player

 

That's a nice club of 3 to belong to.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

 

.939 Dever (just passed the formidable JD)

.935 JD (hanging steady)

.903 Bogey (wrist bothering him)

 

(.886 Duran in 17 PAs)

 

.792 Arroyo (on the IL again)

.789 Kike (about to pass Arroyo)

.765 Renfroe (needs to get hot)

.759 Verdugo (showing signs of heating back up)

 

.668 Plawecki (maybe he needs to play more)

.656 Dalbec (just when you think he's getting better...)

.637 Vaz (getting a free pass from posters)

 

.583 Marwin (IL)

.578 Chavis (days are numbered?)

.501 Cordero (placeholder for Arroyo)

[notin]

Updated Sox OPS

 

.939 Dever (just passed the formidable JD)

.935 JD (hanging steady)

.903 Bogey (wrist bothering him)

 

(.886 Duran in 17 PAs)

 

.792 Arroyo (on the IL again)

.789 Kike (about to pass Arroyo)

.765 Renfroe (needs to get hot)

.759 Verdugo (showing signs of heating back up)

 

.668 Plawecki (maybe he needs to play more)

.656 Dalbec (just when you think he's getting better...)

.637 Vaz (getting a free pass from posters)

 

.583 Marwin (IL)

.578 Chavis (days are numbered?)

.501 Cordero (placeholder for Arroyo)

 

Catching offene is clearly a weak spot, although calling for Plawecki over a difference of 30 OPS points might be a bit extreme.

 

One thing about Renfroe, despite his minor slump recently, his OPS on April 30 was .485. Since then it's .834.

 

Upgrade 1B. Bat the catcher 9th....

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Against

 

.498 Barnes (Kojiesque)

 

.571 Ottavino (quietly putting up great numbers)

.600 Whitlock (steal of the winter)

.621 Houck (just 74 PAs against, but WOW!)

.623 Rios (I was wrong about him.)

.635 Valdez (back in the saddle again)

 

.673 Taylor (been great since April)

.685 Eovaldi (steady Nate)

.695 DHern (still an enigma)

 

.743 Pivetta (the difference maker)

.757 Sawamura (ups and downs)

.762 Workman (perhaps the odd man out)

.775 ERod (on the rise, until last night?)

.794 Perez (top 5th starter in baseball?)

 

.851 Richards (to the pen when Sale returns?)

 

.942 Andriese (Will he even get another chance?)

 

[notin]

Andriese will get his chances in mop up roles in games the Sox are out of. If he can rediscover his groove, maybe meaningful innings follow.

 

He's not this bad over his career, but he has seen something go terribly wrong since April.

[moonslav59]

Catching offene is clearly a weak spot, although calling for Plawecki over a difference of 30 OPS points might be a bit extreme.

 

What makes you think I'm looking at just OPS or this year's OPS numbers?

 

It's no secret I'm no fan of how Vaz has handled our staffs over the years, but here are the OPS numbers from 2020-2021:

 

.769 Plawecki (167 PAs)

.697 Vaz (510 PAs)

 

That's 73 points.

 

I'm not saying bench Vaz, but just to play Plawecki a little more and see what happens.

 

I realize 1Bmen are supposed to hit and catchers catch, but Vaz has been pretty awful at the plate after 2 years of near .800 hitting. I'm not sure what's up with him, but he has gotten a free pass among a crowd of posters that seem to bash just about everything and everyone in the game threads.

 

[moonslav59]

Andriese will get his chances in mop up roles in games the Sox are out of. If he can rediscover his groove, maybe meaningful innings follow.

 

He's not this bad over his career, but he has seen something go terribly wrong since April.

 

That may all be true, but who gets bounced from a 12 man staff?

 

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Perez, Richards

Barnes, Ottavino, Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, DHern

 

Even a 13 man staff.

Sawamura

Valdez

Brasier

Rios

Workman

 

I know you've never been high on Valdez, but I'd take him over Andriese.

 

Sawamura is a lock for the 13th slot, IMO.

[notin]

That may all be true, but who gets bounced from a 12 man staff?

 

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Perez, Richards

Barnes, Ottavino, Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, DHern

 

Even a 13 man staff.

Sawamura

Valdez

Brasier

Rios

Workman

 

I know you've never been high on Valdez, but I'd take him over Andriese.

 

Sawamura is a lock for the 13th slot, IMO.

 

As mentioned, Sale can’t necessarily be counted on and maybe shouldn’t be. ERod is also now in doubt as well. And while both Eovaldi and Richards have been healthy to date, history tells us this, too, cannot be counted on.

 

We may not be as ready to start shedding pitchers as you think…

[moonslav59]

As mentioned, Sale can’t necessarily be counted on and maybe shouldn’t be. ERod is also now in doubt as well. And while both Eovaldi and Richards have been healthy to date, history tells us this, too, cannot be counted on.

 

We may not be as ready to start shedding pitchers as you think…

 

Of course I was assuming top health, so answer my question based on a possible faulty scenario...

 

Who is demoted or DFA'd to make room for Andriese?

[Bellhorn04]

What makes you think I'm looking at just OPS or this year's OPS numbers?

 

It's no secret I'm no fan of how Vaz has handled our staffs over the years, but here are the OPS numbers from 2020-2021:

 

.769 Plawecki (167 PAs)

.697 Vaz (510 PAs)

 

That's 73 points.

 

I'm not saying bench Vaz, but just to play Plawecki a little more and see what happens.

 

I realize 1Bmen are supposed to hit and catchers catch, but Vaz has been pretty awful at the plate after 2 years of near .800 hitting. I'm not sure what's up with him, but he has gotten a free pass among a crowd of posters that seem to bash just about everything and everyone in the game threads.

 

 

Vaz is not getting a lot of off days this year.

 

I have to assume that has something to do with Bloom and Cora liking the way he's handling the pitchers?

[dgalehouse]

Vazquez is fine. Things are going good and folks are looking for things to worry about. Normal situation.

[Bellhorn04]

Vazquez is fine. Things are going good and folks are looking for things to worry about. Normal situation.

 

Everyone goes after the 'low hanging fruit'. LOL

[moonslav59]

Vaz is not getting a lot of off days this year.

 

I have to assume that has something to do with Bloom and Cora liking the way he's handling the pitchers?

 

One could look at this over performing staff as evidence Vaz is handling the staff very well.

 

As for playing a lot...

 

% of games played

 

87% 2021 (85/98) 76 games started at C (78%)

78% 2020 (47/60) 41 games started at C (68%)

85% 2019 (138/162) 103 GS'd at C (64%)

 

One could argue, he needs more rest.

 

One could argue Plawecki might do better (and better than Vaz), if he plays a little more.

[Maxbialystock]

What makes you think I'm looking at just OPS or this year's OPS numbers?

 

It's no secret I'm no fan of how Vaz has handled our staffs over the years, but here are the OPS numbers from 2020-2021:

 

.769 Plawecki (167 PAs)

.697 Vaz (510 PAs)

 

That's 73 points.

 

I'm not saying bench Vaz, but just to play Plawecki a little more and see what happens.

 

I realize 1Bmen are supposed to hit and catchers catch, but Vaz has been pretty awful at the plate after 2 years of near .800 hitting. I'm not sure what's up with him, but he has gotten a free pass among a crowd of posters that seem to bash just about everything and everyone in the game threads.

 

 

I don't like Vazquez one darn bit. He's stopped hitting, he needs to stop taking chances on the basepaths, he leads MLB in passed balls with 9 (next worst only has 5), and he's overweight.

 

However, I think one reason why the pitching staff--and last night is a perfect example--has exceeded expectations has to be that Vazquez knows what he is doing behind the plate.

 

So, yeah, I'm fine with more Plawecki or even Wong (who looks great behind the plate--no passed balls and very few if any wild pitches). But I think Cora likes Vazquez out there and maybe for good reason.

[iortiz]

Porcello didn't have command? How absurd. He pitched 2,096 major league innings and averaged 2.1 walks per 9 innings. He was a strike thrower all the way.

 

I think maybe Max, you don't appreciate how hard major league baseball is.

 

Throwing at the strike zone doesn’t necessarily mean you have a good command.

 

Rick Porcello pitched a lot of meatballs because he didn’t have command of his sinker. Those meatballs cost him a lot of HRs, reflected in his career 12% HR/FB which is pretty awful.

[iortiz]

I’m loving what I have seen in Duran. He seems he belongs here. He could easily be a 5 tool player. His athleticism is really impressive.

 

Also, I think he has been doing oks at defense. He has read the ball pretty well.

[Bellhorn04]

Throwing at the strike zone doesn’t necessarily mean you have a good command.

 

Rick Porcello pitched a lot of meatballs because he didn’t have command of his sinker. Those meatballs cost him a lot of HRs, reflected in his career 12% HR/FB which is pretty awful.

 

He gave up 1.1 HR per 9 innings.

 

Schilling, another strike thrower who gave up few walks, gave up 1.0 HR per 9 innings (and 1.1 in the AL.) So not much difference. Schilling obviously had better swing and miss stuff.