A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

I have a lot of faith on Bloom. A lot. We will be like the Dodgers in the AL (maybe better). Great farm. Great pitching. Balance of elite talent and veterans. Great FA signings.

 

With literally nothing, Bloom assembled a very competitive team this year. Just imagine what he can do with plenty of money and flexibility.

[moonslav59]

We won last night with pen guys Sawamura, Workman (struggled), J Taylor and Whitlock. Darwinzon, Ottavino and Barnes should be available tonight.

 

Ranking based on my eyes only

 

1 Barnes

2 Taylor

3 Ottavino

4 Sawamura (glad his hip issue wasn't serious)

5 Darwinzon

6 Whitlock

 

I would go:

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Taylor

Sawamura

Valdez

DHern

[moonslav59]

There really aren't any #1 free agents coming up next winter -- Bloom won't be overpaying for an older guy like Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw or Greinke.

 

Gausman may be the best choice, and thus in high demand. Syndergard is an uncertain option, coming off TJ like Sale and Verlander.

 

If the Sox do suddenly plan to spend big (like many here expect), is it more likely on position players to replace others traded for a younger, primetime controllable pitcher?

 

I would not be so sure about us not signing one of the "old guys." The upside is none will get a 6+ year deal. Some won't even get 4.

 

A strong veteran presence may help, too.

 

Our best bet may be to hope Sale is the guy we need and Whitlock covers another slot, although all of our rotation, except ERod is under team control for 2022.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see this: Moon

 

1. Arroyo 2B 1 yr/$581.5K A1-A3 (22-24) age 26

2. Verdugo LF 1 yr/$649.5K A1-A3 (22-24) age 25

3. JD DH 5 yr/$110M (18-22) age 33

4. Bogey SS 6 y/$120M (20-25)+26 opt (opt out after 22) age 28

5. Devers 3B 1 yr/$4.575M (21) A2-A3 (22-23) age 24

6. Renfroe RF 1yr/$3.1M (21) A3 22 age 29

7. Vaz C 3yr/13.55M (19-21) 22 opt age 30

8. Dalbec 1B $575K, A1-A3, (22-24) age 26

9. Hernandez CF 2yr/$14M (21-22) age 29

 

Biggest bargain, Verdugo (25). Arroyo has chance to make the 'core group' going forward. As Cora said, he was 1st round draft pick because someone saw talent in him.

 

Arroyo (26), Verdugo (25), Dalbec (26) all with 3 more years of team control. Devers (24) with two more years of team control via arbitrations. Xander (28) under team control for another 5 years if he does not opt out (chances are Sox extend with better contract).

 

Kike (29) and Renfroe (29) will return for 2022 season.

 

Vaz (30) and JD (33) will return for 2022 season. Some say JD has an opt out after 21.

 

Some improvements can be had but this is pretty good hitting team.

 

Improvements will be made, and this was supposed to be the season we tried a number of borderline players at 1B, 2B and OF to determine who might stick and what our highest need area would be for 2022 and beyond.

 

As of now, it looks like 2B might be covered- long term: Arroyo, Downs, Yorke and others.

 

OF and 1B seem like our biggest need, and catcher will be after 2022.

 

We may not spend big at SP'er, this winter, but we will need to re-sign or replace Barnes and Ottavino, add another pen piece and try to upgrade OF (beyond just Duran) and 1B (Dalbec or Chavis may be gone by '22).

 

There should be enough cash to fill all those needs.

[moonslav59]

Bloom stole Arroyo for nothing, and Red Sox are better for it

 

http://https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/chaim-bloom-stole-christian-arroyo-nothing-and-red-sox-are-reaping-reward

 

Very good read on Arroyo.....

 

(I hear Bloom's password is Master-Thief)

 

Thanks.

 

Nice words on Sale, too.

[moonslav59]

Staying Patient with Bobby Dalbec

http://https://www.pitcherlist.com/staying-patient-with-bobby-dalbec/

 

Here's a great read on Dalbec hitting analytics. Compares it to why Trout is so successful. Must read.

 

I could not get this to open.

[iortiz]

Yeah it doesn’t open.

[Nick]

Staying Patient with Bobby Dalbec

 

http://https://www.pitcherlist.com/staying-patient-with-bobby-dalbec/

 

Here's a great read on Dalbec hitting analytics. Compares it to why Trout is so successful. Must read.

 

 

Lets try it again.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Staying Patient with Bobby Dalbec

 

http://https://www.pitcherlist.com/staying-patient-with-bobby-dalbec/

 

Here's a great read on Dalbec hitting analytics. Compares it to why Trout is so successful. Must read.

 

 

Lets try it again.

 

Great article. Thanks.

[Nick]

Per OvertheMonster, recap of our AAA team from last night's game.

 

It was nice to see Chavis continue his hot run down in Triple-A over the last few days, but the pitching is what stands out about this game.

 

First of all, Gonsalves continues to work after an opener, which continues to be interesting to me. There must be at least some consideration for him being the guy to come up if there’s a rotation injury before Tanner Houck is set to return. And Gonsalves is making his case, too, having tossed five scoreless innings in each of his last two outings. The lefty has interesting stuff, and he may not be able to give more than four or five even in a best-case scenario, so getting him used to coming in after an opener may be best for everyone involved. It’s interesting that he seems to be the only one getting this treatment.

 

And then at the end of games, Ort continues to rack up saves and may be the most intriguing reliever in Worcester right now. He has an 0.60 ERA over 15 innings with 21 strikeouts and seven walks.

 

Ort has been lights out. Another Yankee Rule-5 Minor League player. Stands 6-4, 240 lbs. Not drafted. 29 years old. Primarily pitch is fastball, average slider.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Nick

[Fan_since_Boggs]

OF and 1B seem like our biggest need, and catcher will be after 2022.

The Red Sox future outfield:

LF: F.Cordero and M.Wilson platoon

CF: Duran

RF: Verdugo

The nice thing about this OF is that two-thirds will be inexpensive, giving the Red Sox the resources to resign Verdugo and Devers while dealing with Bogaerts' contract.

 

Future 1b: T.Casas

Future Catcher: my hope is that the Red Sox draft H.Davis. The Red Sox need a stud catching prospect more than anything. Vazquez isn't going to last forever and he has a funny body to begin with. He is already 30 years old and I could see him breaking down over the next few years and we are arguably seeing a decline in his bat this season. Remember a few years ago, the Red Sox signed D.Flores to a 3 million dollar international contract--he tragically passed away at such a young age. Davis is needed to fill that gap.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

For the 2021 season, should the Red Sox promote Duran for CF or should the Red Sox trade for a starting CF? For example, how about M.Chavis and Chris Murphy to the Marlins for Starling Marte? Edited June 12, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

Future Catcher: my hope is that the Red Sox draft H.Davis. The Red Sox need a stud catching prospect more than anything. Vazquez isn't going to last forever and he has a funny body to begin with. He is already 30 years old and I could see him breaking down over the next few years and we are arguably seeing a decline in his bat this season. Remember a few years ago, the Red Sox signed D.Flores to a 3 million dollar international contract--he tragically passed away at such a young age. Davis is needed to fill that gap

 

I'd still prefer a college pitcher with our first pick if one is still available.

[Hugh2]

For the 2021 season, should the Red Sox promote Duran for CF or should the Red Sox trade for a starting CF? For example, how about M.Chavis and Chris Murphy to the Marlins for Starling Marte?

 

I think Bloom gets hung up on for that offer.

[Nick]

Bullpen

 

5 More YRS of Team Control

Garrett Whitlock (25) $570.5K, 5 more years of team control (22-26). Maybe a starter in 2022.

 

4 More YRS of Team Control

Josh Taylor (28) $580.5K, 4 arbitration years coming up (22-25).

Darwinzon (24) $578.5K, 4 more years of team control (22-25)

Phiilips Valdez (29) $578.5K, 4 more years of team control (22-25)

 

2 More YRS of Team Control

Ryan Brasier (33) $1.250M, 2 more arbitration years (22-23).

Sawamura (33) 2 year/ $3M, with 23 option. 2 more years (22-23).

 

1 More YR of Team Control

Matt Andriese (31) 1 year/$2.1M, 22 club option, 1 more year (22)

 

Free Agents

Adam Ottavino (35) $8.85M. last year of contract, FA for 2022.

Matt Barnes (31) $4.5M, last year of contract, FA for 2022

Edited June 12, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

For the 2021 season, should the Red Sox promote Duran for CF or should the Red Sox trade for a starting CF? For example, how about M.Chavis and Chris Murphy to the Marlins for Starling Marte?

 

I wouldn't do either, except call up Duran when he is deemed ready by the Sox organization.

 

I'm not trading anything very promising for any rental.

 

I might trade Chavis for a RP'er.

[moonslav59]

Bullpen

 

5 More YRS of Team Control

Garrett Whitlock (25) $570.5K, 5 more years of team control (22-26). Maybe a starter in 2022.

 

4 More YRS of Team Control

Josh Taylor (28) $580.5K, 4 arbitration years coming up (22-25).

Darwinzon (24) $578.5K, 4 more years of team control (22-25)

Phiilips Valdez (29) $578.5K, 4 more years of team control (22-25)

 

2 More YRS of Team Control

Ryan Brasier (33) $1.250M, 2 more arbitration years (22-23).

Sawamura (33) 2 year/ $3M, with 23 option. 2 more years (22-23).

 

1 More YR of Team Control

Matt Andriese (31) 1 year/$2.1M, 22 club option, 1 more year (22)

 

Free Agents

Adam Ottavino (35) $8.85M. last year of contract, FA for 2022.

Matt Barnes (31) $4.5M, last year of contract, FA for 2022

 

Nice breakdown.

 

And this...

 

Brandon Brennan 3-4 yrs remaining

Workman is a FA after this year.

 

I think Houck (4-5 yrs of control remaining) ends up in the pen, and maybe Whitlock ends up in the rotation.

 

Not counting current starters in the minors that could be converted to pen arms, here are a few names that may make an impact in the bigs, this year or next- only Bazardo is on the 40, now:

 

Kaleb Ort

Eduard Bazardo (5 years)

Durbin Feltman

John Schreiber

 

AA now

Chase Shugart

Jacob Wallace

Frank German

Alex Scherff

[moonslav59]

Injury Updates (MLB.com):

 

Bogey: Day to day

Alex Cora said in the NESN pre-game show that Bogaerts will likely be out a couple of days and Sunday is the hope for his return.

 

Sale: August

Three days after throwing off Fenway Park’s bullpen mound, Sale fired a side session on the main diamond on June 11. The Red Sox are so encouraged by the way he looks that they’re actually trying to contain their enthusiasm.

 

Ryan Brasier: July

The Red Sox had good news on Brasier. One day after he was struck on the right side of his face by a line drive in a simulated game, the reliever was released from the hospital and resting comfortably at his apartment in Fort Myers, Fla. Brasier has a concussion, but it appears he has otherwise dodged any additional head injuries.

Before that scary incident, he was in the final stages of recovering from a left calf strain suffered at the end of Spring Training. Brasier's sim game on Friday was expected to be his last step before going on a Minor League rehab assignment. Now, he will have to go through concussion protocol and additional recovery before the Red Sox clear him to return to baseball activities.

[Nick]

Nice breakdown.

 

And this...

 

Brandon Brennan 3-4 yrs remaining

Workman is a FA after this year.

 

I think Houck (4-5 yrs of control remaining) ends up in the pen, and maybe Whitlock ends up in the rotation.

 

Not counting current starters in the minors that could be converted to pen arms, here are a few names that may make an impact in the bigs, this year or next- only Bazardo is on the 40, now:

 

Kaleb Ort

Eduard Bazardo (5 years)

Durbin Feltman

John Schreiber

 

AA now

Chase Shugart

Jacob Wallace

Frank German

Alex Scherff

 

Old adage is true...you just can't have enough good pitching. I'm stunned by number of injuries to minor league pitchers for the Sox.

[Larry Cook]

Future Catcher: my hope is that the Red Sox draft H.Davis. The Red Sox need a stud catching prospect more than anything. Vazquez isn't going to last forever and he has a funny body to begin with. He is already 30 years old and I could see him breaking down over the next few years and we are arguably seeing a decline in his bat this season. Remember a few years ago, the Red Sox signed D.Flores to a 3 million dollar international contract--he tragically passed away at such a young age. Davis is needed to fill that gap

 

I'd still prefer a college pitcher with our first pick if one is still available.

 

This draft is really intriguing. It looks like there are 4 super short stops at the top with the kid from wake forest high school having tons of helium.

 

Our minor league system is really light on quality pitching.

 

Ideally, I would love either one of the Vanderbilt pitchers. Lieter had a rough spot in the middle of the Season but before that and after that he has been a beast,

rocker can be great one week and bad the next, against East Carolina the other night he was great again!

 

1st round - leiter or rocker. They both have ceilings of #2 or #3 starters.

 

2nd round - I really like pitcher bednar, but I think he has pitched himself into round 1. So my back up plan is pitcher Williams of East Carolina.

 

3rd round - Carter Jensen (catcher) I think his hit tool is vastly under rated. Not sure he can stick at catcher but he can hit, which means we will find a place for him to play.

[Larry Cook]

Speaking of Duran, he went 0-5, tonight.

 

Wilson went 1-4 (2B) with a BB

 

Chavis homered, went 2 for 4 and had 3 rbi.

 

Lopez came in for Arauz and went 2-3.

 

Gonsalves went 5 strong (4H, 1BB, 0 ER)

 

Ort got the save- no hits or BBs, again.

 

In AA, Ronaldo Hernandez had 3 hits, including his 4th HR. Castellanos went deep and was 2-5.Rosario ad 2 hits an na BB

 

Is gonslave the only pitcher in triple a working after an opener?

[Nick]

Is gonslave the only pitcher in triple a working after an opener?

 

Yes. If a starter goes down today, he may get the call up.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Nick

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I wouldn't do either, except call up Duran when he is deemed ready by the Sox organization.

 

I'm not trading anything very promising for any rental.

 

I might trade Chavis for a RP'er.

 

Chris Murphy has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and so it's not like the Red Sox are giving up a premium talent for a rental in Marte. I wouldn't trade Bello for a rental.

 

Instead of trading for a CF, I would prefer promoting Duran and using Chavis in a deal for a relief pitcher.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

es. If a starter goes down today, he may get the call up.

 

They would need to open a spot on the 40 man roster. They could remove Arauz from the 40 man, I'm not sure what the Red Sox see in him anyway.

[moonslav59]

They would need to open a spot on the 40 man roster. They could remove Arauz from the 40 man, I'm not sure what the Red Sox see in him anyway.

 

Arauz is maybe 5-10th on the DFA/trade list.

[Larry Cook]

Arauz is maybe 5-10th on the DFA/trade list.

 

What order would you list the top ten players to be dfa’d?

[moonslav59]

What order would you list the top ten players to be dfa’d?

 

 

We do also have the option of 60 day IL'ing Potts, but here's my current DFA-trade list:

 

1. Santana

2. Workman

3. Wilson

4. Brennan

 

The following could probably be traded not DFA'd

5. Chavis

6. Arauz

7. Andriese

 

Certainly traded not DFA'd:

8. Potts

9. Wong

10. Cordero/Groome

 

 

[Larry Cook]

 

We do also have the option of 60 day IL'ing Potts, but here's my current DFA-trade list:

 

1. Santana

2. Workman

3. Wilson

4. Brennan

 

The following could probably be traded not DFA'd

5. Chavis

6. Arauz

7. Andriese

 

Certainly traded not DFA'd:

8. Potts

9. Wong

10. Cordero/Groome

 

 

 

Very nice list.

[moonslav59]

Very nice list.

 

I kinda liked Arauz, but I thought he was a decent fielder. I'm not thinking that, right now. Plus, he's at .639 in AAA, now, so maybe he moves up on my list.

[oldtimer]

So the Sox lost to a very good offensive team while being without one of their best hitters (Bogaerts). No a great concern although having one turn around the rotation being ineffective does give me pause. The good news is Dalbec got an extra base hit for the 3rd game in a row. I am hoping they get back to their winning ways tomorrow.