A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

I agree that Cora can be stubborn, but Kike did say he liked hitting leadoff.

 

My bad...I did not read that....

[moonslav59]

No, they were 54-53 when they traded Archer. They ended up winning 90 games but missed the playoffs. You're looking at the wrong year.

 

Sorry, my bad.

 

The Kazmir deal was an example.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry, my bad.

 

The Kazmir deal was an example.

 

I vaguely remember the Kazmir deal. I know there was some very negative reaction to it.

 

So that's one extremely rare example, out of all the transactions over the years.

[Bellhorn04]

Coincidentally, Kazmir just got released by the Giants.

[moonslav59]

Bloom was hired to win, too. This is the Red Sox, not the Rays.

 

He was hired to build a winning team and probably to set up a system where it can be sustainable.

 

If you look at what the Rays did after some of their "sell-offs" they actually improved in the short and long terms, and many of the very good players they dealt away had a lot of people scratching their heads, until the guys they traded fell off a cliff shortly afterwards.

 

Look, I'm not saying Bloom will trade Barnes, or that he will follow the Rays example 100%. He had to do some of those moves for financial reasons. He does not have to do that here, but he did learn some valuable lessons from several of those trades that may carry over to his time, here.

 

Another factor to think about is how we define "competitiveness."

 

Is it having an outside shot at a WC slot?

 

Is it having an inside shot at a WC slot?

 

Is it having a good chance to win the division?

 

Is it having a good chance at winning a ring?

 

I know many of you believe in the playoff crapshoot doctrine, but I don't, and maybe Bloom & Co. don't either.

 

If they think we have a 10% chance at winning it all, and a trade of Barnes might make it a 2 or 3% chance, but will greatly increase our chances, next year and/or for several years afterwards, maybe they consider it.

 

If they think our chances are 20-30%, the choice gets much harder, but if you believe in the crapshoot doctrine, nobody ever has a20-25% or higher chance of winning a ring.

[moonslav59]

I agree that Cora can be stubborn, but Kike did say he liked hitting leadoff.

 

I kinda liked the idea of trying Arroyo leading off. I know Santana has speed, but Arroyo has been getting on base better than any of the non top 4 hitters on the team...

 

Note Santana's ranking.

 

.326 Arroyo

.310 Plawecki

.299 Renfroe

.288 Vaz

.287 Marwin

.284 Kike

.248 Dalbec

.222 Santana

[moonslav59]

I vaguely remember the Kazmir deal. I know there was some very negative reaction to it.

 

So that's one extremely rare example, out of all the transactions over the years.

 

It's the only deadline trade I remember by the Rays at the deadline, yes. There may be more.

 

I don't think the David Wells trade in 2006 was major enough to be an example, but we were 10 games over .500 at the time of the trade, and I do remember some grumbling about throwing in the towel too early.

 

That season was promising until losing 5 in a row to the Yanks in mid August, which was part of losing 12 of 14 shortly before the deadline.

 

We ended up 10 over .500 and lost out by 9 games to the 95 win Tigers, but at the end of August, it was not a clear thing.

 

[notin]

There's not much logic or consistency with this stuff.

 

I think there’s often more logic than we realize...

[a700hitter]

Per mlb.com

 

Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 29 international prospect during the 2018 signing period, Valdez inked a deal for $1.45 million with the Mets that July 2. He was big for the class then and that remains the case as he stands in at a listed 6-foot-3, 212 pounds. The Dominican Republic native showed off some power and ability to take a walk in his first taste of the pros in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, hitting .268/.357/.432 over 57 games. That prompted a first stateside move to the Gulf Coast League that season, and he returned to the U.S. for the instructional league last fall.

 

The Mets like Valdez for his above-average hand speed that can result in some impressive exit velocities when he makes a solid connection. He also shows an impressive eye at the plate for someone his age, though he can get too passive at times. His swing can also get long, which holds down the overall hit tool. Valdez is a solid runner but is decidedly a corner outfielder, due to his size and struggles at times with routes and jumps. His arm is a potential above-average tool, though that too will take work as he works on his release to make the most of his arm strength.

 

There was plenty to build on for Valdez in 2020, and that will continue to be the case for him when he returns to game play in 2021. The power and arm make him a standard corner-outfield candidate at the top level, and the other holes in his game could be improved with experience.

A 16 year old and a 17 year old. What ... no grad school players were available? Bloom dumped Beni at his lowest value and got a commensurate return.

[moonslav59]

A 16 year old and a 17 year old. What ... no grad school players were available? Bloom dumped Beni at his lowest value and got a commensurate return.

 

Beni's value is lower, now, and will continue to decline as his years of service decline.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have Renfroe, anyway.

 

The rest is just gravy.

[a700hitter]

Beni's value is lower, now, and will continue to decline as his years of service decline.

I disagree.

[moonslav59]

I disagree.

 

He's hitting below his career norm and has less and less team control with every passing day.

[a700hitter]

He's hitting below his career norm and has less and less team control with every passing day.

And he was traded when he had a .442 OPS, likely to be the low point in his career.

[moonslav59]

And he was traded when he had a .442 OPS, likely to be the low point in his career.

 

I seriously doubt GMs set value based primarily on most recent small sample sizes.

 

Years of team control, contractual costs and projected performance is likely all higher ranked than a tiny sample size.

[a700hitter]

I seriously doubt GMs set value based primarily on most recent small sample sizes.

 

Years of team control, contractual costs and projected performance is likely all higher ranked than a tiny sample size.

Under your approach almost every players value decreases with decreasing years of control and/or age until retirement? Let’s just say that Beni was far from peak performance when he was traded and coming off the worst funk of his career. IMO, that got a bag of balls for him.

[moonslav59]

Under your approach almost every players value decreases with decreasing years of control and/or age until retirement? Let’s just say that Beni was far from peak performance when he was traded and coming off the worst funk of his career. IMO, that got a bag of balls for him.

 

Obviously no, and I never said that. I said it was a bigger factor than a most recent 50 PA sample size.

 

Plus, players get extended, get hurt, have big seasons or bad ones (not tiny sample sizes) that all affect their value, but years of team control and what cost is certainly a significant factor.

[Larry Cook]

I kinda liked the idea of trying Arroyo leading off. I know Santana has speed, but Arroyo has been getting on base better than any of the non top 4 hitters on the team...

 

Note Santana's ranking.

 

.326 Arroyo

.310 Plawecki

.299 Renfroe

.288 Vaz

.287 Marwin

.284 Kike

.248 Dalbec

.222 Santana

 

I have watched Santana’s at bats and I see a guy who goes up to the plate with a plan, and has decent bat speed, but his timing is off. He is picking up the spin too late.

 

He gets his timing back, then we may have a decent hitter on our hands!

[moonslav59]

I have watched Santana’s at bats and I see a guy who goes up to the plate with a plan, and has decent bat speed, but his timing is off. He is picking up the spin too late.

 

He gets his timing back, then we may have a decent hitter on our hands!

 

Who knows.

 

He deserves a shot, but maybe not at the 1 slot.

[notin]

Under your approach almost every players value decreases with decreasing years of control and/or age until retirement? Let’s just say that Beni was far from peak performance when he was traded and coming off the worst funk of his career. IMO, that got a bag of balls for him.

 

It’s very possible none of the players makes the majors or makes any impact. But what if the Sox traded Benintendi for Sawamura and Gonzalez? Since they basically spent his salary on those two...

[moonslav59]

It’s very possible none of the players makes the majors or makes any impact. But what if the Sox traded Benintendi for Sawamura and Gonzalez? Since they basically spent his salary on those two...

 

Or Renfroe, who has an arb year left after this year.

[moonslav59]

AL Standings

 

37-23 TBR

35-23 BOS WC

35-23 CWS

35-25 OAK

31-25 CLE tied for last WC

32-26 HOU tied for last WC

 

30-26 TOR -1.0 WC

31-28 NYY -1.5

29-27 KCR -2.0

 

NL

37-21 SFG

36-23 SDP WC

34-24 LAD WC

32-26 CHI

32-26 MIL -2.0 WC

27-23 NYM

31-28 STL -3.5 WC (-1.5 NL Central)

27-29 ATL & CIN -6.0 WC (-3.0 NL East)

27-30 PHI -6.5 WC (-3.5 NLE)

 

All three top teams are from the NLW, which means both Wild Cards would come from the same division.

 

 

[oldtimer]

It was an important win for the Sox for a lot of reasons last night. It was the hated Yankees and at their park. JDM was being rested after the grind we have been in. E-Rod was pitching and showed improvement. The usual offensive guys contributed and best of all both Hernandez and Dalbec had hits that helped the club. The Yankee fans have to be crying in their beer.

[oldtimer]

Update on the Olympic Qualifier round. The US team beat Venezuela last night 4 to 2. to qualify for Tokyo. Venezuela had former Red Sox prospect Annibel Sanchez on the mound. Our guys Duran went 1 for 4 and Casas went 1 for 3 with a walk. The hero was Todd Frazier with a 4 for 4 night including a Home run. Venezuela and Puerto Rico get to play in another round in Mexico for the final spot in the Olympics.

[a700hitter]

It’s very possible none of the players makes the majors or makes any impact. But what if the Sox traded Benintendi for Sawamura and Gonzalez? Since they basically spent his salary on those two...

if they signed Holt for $1 million instead of Kike, they would have had more than enough money for those 2 guys plus more and still kept Benintendi. Beni and Renfroe would have been a vet productive platoon.

[Nick]

Boston selected Whitlock from the Yankees in December’s Rule 5 Draft. The 24-year-old righty has a 1.63 ERA in 27 ⅔ innings (15 relief appearances).

The Red Sox view him long term as a starting pitcher. Right now, he’s a perfect high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen option for Cora.

 

Few have asked...

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

if they signed Holt for $1 million instead of Kike, they would have had more than enough money for those 2 guys plus more and still kept Benintendi. Beni and Renfroe would have been a vet productive platoon.

 

Based on what you say, it's obvious Sox expected MORE from Kike than what he's delivered. I hear he is what he is, but Sox obviously thought he is much more than what he 2 year, $14M was an overpay, so far.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

It was an important win for the Sox for a lot of reasons last night. It was the hated Yankees and at their park. JDM was being rested after the grind we have been in. E-Rod was pitching and showed improvement. The usual offensive guys contributed and best of all both Hernandez and Dalbec had hits that helped the club. The Yankee fans have to be crying in their beer.

 

All true....good things from last night

 

1. E Rod did look more comfortable on the mound

2. Great to see Whitlock come in a high leverage situation and get the job done.

3 Ottavino looks closer to what we expected

4 With 2 strikes, Barnes is almost unhittable.

5 Good to have Kike moved off the leadoff spot and take some pressure off of him

6 Maybe, maybe Dalbec found something

7 Marwin has been making decent contact recently

 

I do think Santana is struggling...

[Nick]

However, Cora does not want to disrupt what he feels is a perfect 2-5 combination of Verdugo (lefty), J.D. Martinez (righty), Xander Bogaerts (righty) and Rafael Devers (lefty).

 

"One thing for sure, putting Alex like everybody wants to in the leadoff spot, it doesn't guarantee us to keep scoring runs at this rate," said Cora. "We've been doing a good job scoring runs. It just happens that our leadoff guy hasn't been able to get on base at the rate that we would love to or he would love to.

 

Intellectually, Cora's statement does not make sense. What the hell is the difference between 2-5 vs 1-4 by moving up everyone? Right now, 2-5 comes up with one out. I know some of you will jump in and say well they may not feel comfortable. Only thing these guys want from comfort standpoint is they want to FOLLOW the same guy. Only person the change happens to is Verdugo. Everyone else is on deck with the same guy that's in the batter's box.

 

I agree if there's an high OBP guy, current 2-5 works. But please don't give me ******** about 1-4 will not score as many runs as 2-5 with same order.

[notin]

if they signed Holt for $1 million instead of Kike, they would have had more than enough money for those 2 guys plus more and still kept Benintendi. Beni and Renfroe would have been a vet productive platoon.

 

Maybe they lost some faith in Benintendi? He’d been a below average since 2018, and while still young, really just had the one good season.

 

But hindsight moves like that where multiple transactions need to get rearranged make for weak arguments...