A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

If we put our best 4 hitters 1-2-3-4, the next 5 will find it hard to scratch across some runs. Studies show the #5 slot is ultra important, so to me, putting our best 4 in the top 5 slots is best. That means someone else should hit somewhere in the top 5. Maybe the third slot is best, but anywhere but 2, 4 and 5 is okay with me.

[moonslav59]

5.4 CIN

5.2 AZ

5.0 HOU

4.8 LAA

4.8 BOS

4.7 LAD

4.7 ATL

4.6 MN

4.5 STL

4.5 TOR

 

15. TBR 4.2

 

23. NYY 3.9

 

27. BAL 3.6

 

ERA Leaders:

 

2.72 SDP

2.90 NYM

2.95 SFG

2.98 LAD

3.09 NYY

3.27 MIL

3.40 MIA

3.42TOR

3.51 BOS

3.62 CWS

 

15. BAL 4.01

18. TBR 4.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Some serious slumping bats the last 7 days.

 

.562 team OPS

 

1.228 Devers

1.157 JD

 

.710 Verdugo

.600 Bogey

 

.389 Vaz

.388 Kike

.381 Renfroe

.350 Arroyo

.327 Dalbec

 

.229 Marwin

 

16 PAs from Plawecki, Cordero and some pitchers combine for a .000 OPS.

 

Last 14 Days

.414 Vaz

.410 Renfroe

.250 Plawecki

.170 Cordero

[moonslav59]

Pitching Numbers

(By mots PAs against) Pitcher and OPS against

 

143 Eovaldi .647

109 Richards .773

106 Perez .746

104 Pivetta .603

89 ERod .643

 

52 Andriese .577

50 Barnes .351

50 Taylor .993

48 Whitlock .319

46 Sawamura .792

45 Houck .806

43 Ottavino

42 DHern .796

40 Valdez .368

33 Brice .792

5 Bazardo .400

 

We've used 16 pitchers, this year, and Bazardo was only for one game. (Houck for 3.)

 

What a difference from last year's merry-go-round.

[oldtimer]

Some serious slumping bats the last 7 days.

 

.562 team OPS

 

1.228 Devers

1.157 JD

 

.710 Verdugo

.600 Bogey

 

.389 Vaz

.388 Kike

.381 Renfroe

.350 Arroyo

.327 Dalbec

 

.229 Marwin

 

16 PAs from Plawecki, Cordero and some pitchers combine for a .000 OPS.

 

Last 14 Days

.414 Vaz

.410 Renfroe

.250 Plawecki

.170 Cordero

 

Hate to harp on it but why wait with 2 guys in particular who add nothing offensively. The time has come and passed when we should send Codero down and consider the same with Renfroe. Maybe they are waiting for Santana, but why risk losses instead of trying to bolster the outfield.

[moonslav59]

Santana extended his opt out into May. I think he'll get a call-up. It seems like an easy choice to send Cordero down for some work on that swing.

 

Brasier is on the IL. Any idea when he comes back? Since Brice is out of options, Taylor will likely be the one sent down.

 

Sale has a long rehab ahead, so there is little to be gained by trying to figure out who is demoted from the rotation, and who is demoted to AAA or DFA'd.

 

We can be pretty certain these players will get a serious look in 2021:

 

Houck as a starter or long man,depending on how well our starters do, and how healthy they remain.

 

Bazardo should get plenty of chances, especially if Taylor and Brice keep struggling.

 

These players may only see time, if there is an injury, serious slump or as September call-ups:

 

Michael Chavis

Jarren Duran

Jeter Downs (not on 40 man roster)

Connor Seabold

Colten Brewer

Jonathan Arauz

Connor Wong

Marcus Wilson

Hudson Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Ronaldo Hernandez

 

Need to be added to 40 Man Roster to see action:

 

Tristan Casas

Yairo Munoz

Josh Ockimey

Chris Hermann

Ryan Weber

Kyle Hart, Matt Hall, Kaleb Ort, Rayel Espinal, Stephen Gonsalves, Seth Blair, Bobby Poyner, Marcus Walden, Daniel Gossett, John Schreiber, Josh Winckowski, AJ Politi, Thaddeus Ward, Frank German, Durbin Feltman

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Hate to harp on it but why wait with 2 guys in particular who add nothing offensively. The time has come and passed when we should send Codero down and consider the same with Renfroe. Maybe they are waiting for Santana, but why risk losses instead of trying to bolster the outfield.

 

I'm usually one to want to wait on longer sample sizes, but Cordero should be sent down, very soon.

 

2 reasons we waited:

 

1. The alt site is not playing live games, so anyone called up is not really in sinc.(AAA starts, now.)

2. Santana agreed to have opt out date extended into May, presumably because he was not ready. He seems like the obvious choice- yes, even over Duran or Chavis due to his opt out clause and his great numbers in 2018.

 

They may wait for Santana to actually play a few games before calling him up, so I'm guessing 3-7 days more.

 

Much of the league is struggling offensively. There is no guarantee the guy we call up will do well, but it would be awfully hard to do worse than what Cordero has been doing.

 

I don't see Renfroe being sent down, anytime soon. He has a longer and better history than Cordero, especially vs LHPs. I do think the concern level is growing on him, too. Maybe he gets 2-3 more weeks, but probably even longer. I'm not sure the Sox brass thinks Duran is ready. They may want him to get a month of live action in AAA before considering a call-up for him. Chavis may be called up before him.

[oldtimer]

I'm usually one to want to wait on longer sample sizes, but Cordero should be sent down, very soon.

 

2 reasons we waited:

 

1. The alt site is not playing live games, so anyone called up is not really in sinc.(AAA starts, now.)

2. Santana agreed to have opt out date extended into May, presumably because he was not ready. He seems like the obvious choice- yes, even over Duran or Chavis due to his opt out clause and his great numbers in 2018.

 

They may wait for Santana to actually play a few games before calling him up, so I'm guessing 3-7 days more.

 

Much of the league is struggling offensively. There is no guarantee the guy we call up will do well, but it would be awfully hard to do worse than what Cordero has been doing.

 

I don't see Renfroe being sent down, anytime soon. He has a longer and better history than Cordero, especially vs LHPs. I do think the concern level is growing on him, too. Maybe he gets 2-3 more weeks, but probably even longer. I'm not sure the Sox brass thinks Duran is ready. They may want him to get a month of live action in AAA before considering a call-up for him. Chavis may be called up before him.

 

I agree with you. It is probably Santana, provided he demonstrates he is ready. He is a proven commodity if healthy. His switch hitting could be a plus and he is capable in the outfield. Codero is not demonstrating he belongs at this point. Yes, the league is not hitting well, but we do have 5 that are and who is to say one or more of those might slump.

 

You are probably correct that Renfroe has more leeway but he has been awful offensively. How long do you wait when we have Duran who they have indicated is a player expected to be a starting CF? Dalbec is getting leeway as well although the Sox may see him as equal to or better than Chavis, so nothing to be gained by that move.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you. It is probably Santana, provided he demonstrates he is ready. He is a proven commodity if healthy. His switch hitting could be a plus and he is capable in the outfield. Codero is not demonstrating he belongs at this point. Yes, the league is not hitting well, but we do have 5 that are and who is to say one or more of those might slump.

 

You are probably correct that Renfroe has more leeway but he has been awful offensively. How long do you wait when we have Duran who they have indicated is a player expected to be a starting CF? Dalbec is getting leeway as well although the Sox may see him as equal to or better than Chavis, so nothing to be gained by that move.

 

I'm not sure any of us know if Sox management feels Duran is ML ready, right now. Even if they do, they may want him to actually play a few live games before throwing him in the hot Boston spot light.

 

If they think he's ready, I think they give Renfroe another 2-3 weeks, minimum, assuming Santana replaces Cordero.

 

GMs do not usually make decisions based on just a 68 PA sample size during the coldest month of the season. I, for one, am glad they don't.

 

That's not to say I'm not really concerned about a few slumping players. I am, but there are several good reasons to wait, at least until AAA is up and running for a few days, and the possible replacement players have a few real games under their belts.

[dgalehouse]

We will have a better idea of things when the minor league season gets going. The so- called " alternate site " is no substitute for the minor leagues.

[moonslav59]

We will have a better idea of things when the minor league season gets going. The so- called " alternate site " is no substitute for the minor leagues.

 

That might be the major reason we have not sent Cordero down already.

[Nick]

Jeez Nick. Let me see if I've got this straight.

 

You're still pretty pissed that a Rule 5 rookie coming off Tommy John surgery didn't get his first high leverage outing until all the way to April 23.

 

Yes, Rule5 has more courage in his pinky than our coaching staff.

[Kimmi]

Baseball fans fanatical enough to hang out on sites like this all year are very discerning. We can see flaws in the Red Sox' offense, defense, pitching, coaching, and general managing. But after the first month or 1/6th of the season, all other clubs in the MLB have just as many -- if not bigger -- flaws. Even the mighty Dodgers are whiffing, just three Ks away from the worst swing-and-miss team in the NL.

 

The Sox were seven games over .500 for April. If they can maintain such a reasonable rate -- and go just 71-64 the next five months -- it's an 88-win pace. In an overrated, mediocre division, that should be enough to contend for a playoff spot all season... and to keep us watching all summer!

 

The baseball fans here are the best. Very knowledgeable, and yet fanatical enough to let our emotions get the best of us sometimes. Not that wanting Kike out of the leadoff spot is an emotional reaction. It has merit.

 

Going into the season, most people were hoping for a watchable product. I think we have hit that standard and then some. We still have a long way to go, but so far, so good. An 88 win pace is certainly doable.

[Nick]

Sale began throwing in September and initially was expected to begin throwing off a mound by the end of January. But neck stiffness and a mild case of COVID-19 set him back.

 

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported back in January that Sale’s recovery process is “expected to be deliberate” and the Red Sox are “apt to take a conservative approach” with him.

 

How can our baseball people continue to be so far off? It's May 1st, by the end of January? Hell at this rate I'll be happy to see him for opening day 2022.

 

I prefer the answer, "We have no f***ing idea." I can live with that.

[Nick]

The baseball fans here are the best. Very knowledgeable, and yet fanatical enough to let our emotions get the best of us sometimes. Not that wanting Kike out of the leadoff spot is an emotional reaction. It has merit.

 

Going into the season, most people were hoping for a watchable product. I think we have hit that standard and then some. We still have a long way to go, but so far, so good. An 88 win pace is certainly doable.

 

I'm enjoying watching the team play. I take good with the bad but at the same time I like to see us improve.

 

There has to be different goal sets for different players. Dalbec is a ninth batter and we should just let him play. But that means either Cordero and/or Renfro has to hit. We can't have all three go on a strikeout hitless spree. Dalbec is future. We should have enough offense to carry him. I think he'll get it going at some point.

 

The goal is to be competitive this year and at the same time finding out our core group for future. Verdugo, Devers, Xander and hopefully Dalbec is next up.

[illinoisredsox]

Yes, Rule5 has more courage in his pinky than our coaching staff.

 

Right, because a kid who has thrown 0 innings above AA (and only 70 innings at that level) should be thrown to the wolves ASAP. And if he failed, you’d have been the first one with the pitchfork saying why did we take this schmuck.

 

Let’s see what happens when he hits a rough patch (he will) and how he reacts before we anoint him Pedro’s successor, okay?

[Nick]

Right, because a kid who has thrown 0 innings above AA (and only 70 innings at that level) should be thrown to the wolves ASAP. And if he failed, you’d have been the first one with the pitchfork saying why did we take this schmuck.

 

Let’s see what happens when he hits a rough patch (he will) and how he reacts before we anoint him Pedro’s successor, okay?

 

I read a lot and reports coming out on him have been excellent from get go. The way he has carried himself has impressed among others our esteem manager Cora. Everyone is high on his stuff and his ability to challenge hitters. Reports praise his command of strike zone. To me that's the big tell with young pitchers. Walks per nine innings.

 

Unlike you, I don't just make s*** up. He has succeeded in each of his outings. I've never compared him to Pedro.

 

I don't think you should hide talent. I just like to see more of Whitlock.

[notin]

I read a lot and reports coming out on him have been excellent from get go. The way he has carried himself has impressed among others our esteem manager Cora. Everyone is high on his stuff and his ability to challenge hitters. Reports praise his command of strike zone. To me that's the big tell with young pitchers. Walks per nine innings.

 

Unlike you, I don't just make s*** up. He has succeeded in each of his outings. I've never compared him to Pedro.

 

I don't think you should hide talent. I just like to see more of Whitlock.

 

He’s just coming off TJ. We’re probably honestly seeing too much of him as it is...

[illinoisredsox]

I read a lot and reports coming out on him have been excellent from get go. The way he has carried himself has impressed among others our esteem manager Cora. Everyone is high on his stuff and his ability to challenge hitters. Reports praise his command of strike zone. To me that's the big tell with young pitchers. Walks per nine innings.

 

Unlike you, I don't just make s*** up. He has succeeded in each of his outings. I've never compared him to Pedro.

 

I don't think you should hide talent. I just like to see more of Whitlock.

 

I make stuff up? Show me when I’ve done that.

 

And as a guy who reads “a lot”, you may want to review the meaning of hyperbole.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock is second in IP from the pen.

 

I'm not sure what more is expected. They said they want to stretch him out, so he can't pitch everyday.

 

I'm not sure what the rush is to max out Whitlock and Houck's IP before we reach September, let alone October.

 

This team was supposed to win between 70-85 games, but are on pace to win 98, and yet somehow, we're being run by a pack of idiots.

 

I, for one, am glad we have leaders looking at the long game and not short term gratification that might for players into situations not conducive to success. Maybe part of the reason Whitlock has done so well, is that Cora has only placed him in situations where he had the best chances for success, and he's been building his confidence by not overusing him right out of the gate.

[moonslav59]

He’s just coming off TJ. We’re probably honestly seeing too much of him as it is...

 

The more we can save Whitlock & Houck for the dog days of summer, the better.

[moonslav59]

Sale began throwing in September and initially was expected to begin throwing off a mound by the end of January. But neck stiffness and a mild case of COVID-19 set him back.

 

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported back in January that Sale’s recovery process is “expected to be deliberate” and the Red Sox are “apt to take a conservative approach” with him.

 

How can our baseball people continue to be so far off? It's May 1st, by the end of January? Hell at this rate I'll be happy to see him for opening day 2022.

 

I prefer the answer, "We have no f***ing idea." I can live with that.

 

I'd hate to see what you'd be posting, if we were 11-17 or worse.

Edited May 2, 2021 by moonslav59

[illinoisredsox]

I'd hate to see what you'd be posting, if we were 11-17 or worse.

 

Maybe Nick can enlighten us as to what MLB team he has run or how he just knows so much more than the people actually paid to run teams.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Nick can enlighten us as to what MLB team he has run or how he just knows so much more than the people actually paid to run teams.

 

I guess Cora never read the "reports" on Whitlock, until it was too late.

 

We should be 20-8, right now.

[Nick]

Maybe Nick can enlighten us as to what MLB team he has run or how he just knows so much more than the people actually paid to run teams.

 

I've been a loyal fan since 1967. Not going anywhere. We lost a winnable game last night.

[Nick]

I guess Cora never read the "reports" on Whitlock, until it was too late.

 

We should be 20-8, right now.

 

So some pussy doesn't agree with me so that you f***ing jump on his bandwagon? I"ve lost all respect for you Moon. Sure join the fun. Where did I say Cora never read the "reports" on Whitlock? Quit putting words into my mouth.

[moonslav59]

So some pussy doesn't agree with me so that you f***ing jump on his bandwagon? I"ve lost all respect for you Moon. Sure join the fun. Where did I say Cora never read the "reports" on Whitlock? Quit putting words into my mouth.

 

I didn't need someone else to post to disagree with you.

 

You've been harping on team management from nearly day one. No words being "put in your mouth."

 

The fact is Whitlock has been handled just right. His success is a testiment to Cora, Bloom & Co., yet you have ripped them to shreds for not using him more.

 

The kid is returning from TJS and is certainly on an innings limited plan, this year- same with Houck. We have 5 starters, all of which have shown signs of being okay to pretty good, and they all deserved a few starts to show what they got. Management has stated they want to stretch Whitlock out, so he hasn't been pitching everyday, but when he does pitch, he goes 2+ innings. He's nearly the leader in RP'er innings on the team, yet you complain he hasn't been used enough, especially in high leverage situations. Am I mischaracterizing your position, here?

 

No.

 

I never called you names. I simply disagreed with you, as I have quite a bit, lately. The team is overperforming and very exciting to watch. If I have lost your respect because I haven't "f***ing jumped" on your almost total Sox-bashing bandwagon, then so be it.

 

I happy Cora hasn't over-used Whitlock & Houck or set them up for failure. I have given my reasons, and I think they have merit. I don't expect or want everyone to agree with me.

[illinoisredsox]

So some pussy doesn't agree with me so that you f***ing jump on his bandwagon? I"ve lost all respect for you Moon. Sure join the fun. Where did I say Cora never read the "reports" on Whitlock? Quit putting words into my mouth.

 

As the “pussy” you are referring to, all I’ll say is: ooh, another internet tough guy resorting to name calling because someone has the temerity to disagree with him.

 

Still waiting on your response on where I make things up, but I knew you’d never follow through on that.

Edited May 2, 2021 by illinoisredsox

[Kimmi]

I'm enjoying watching the team play. I take good with the bad but at the same time I like to see us improve.

 

There has to be different goal sets for different players. Dalbec is a ninth batter and we should just let him play. But that means either Cordero and/or Renfro has to hit. We can't have all three go on a strikeout hitless spree. Dalbec is future. We should have enough offense to carry him. I think he'll get it going at some point.

 

The goal is to be competitive this year and at the same time finding out our core group for future. Verdugo, Devers, Xander and hopefully Dalbec is next up.

 

I was just thinking the same thing about our 7-8-9 hitters. We can easily bury Dalbec in the #9 hole, but trying to cover 3 spots in a row is a different story. I like having Arroyo and Gonzalez hitting 7 and 8. I think it's pretty much a given that Santana will up and Franchy will be down as soon as Santana is ready.

[Kimmi]

I've been a loyal fan since 1967. Not going anywhere. We lost a winnable game last night.

 

By my count, all but 2 (maybe 3) of the games that we've lost have been winnable. As frustrating as losing those close games is, it's really a good sign for the team. It's much better than getting blown out in losses. As I've posted many times, all teams, even the best teams, will be roughly .500 in the close games. It's a team's record in blowout games that is the true measure of the team's talent. Okay, maybe not a 'true' measure, but a much better measure. We are 6-2 (.750) in blowout games. Small sample, of course.