What are your realistic expectations of Chris Sale for the 2021 season?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For the Red Sox to contend in '21, this rotation needs a complete overhaul. Any contributions the Sox get from their top three of ERod, Eovaldi and Sale -- all question marks -- just cannot be anticipated. Anything from the bottom three of Pivetta, Mazza and Houk -- all projects -- will be a welcome bonus.

 

Boston could sign the top two free agent starters, Bauer and Odorizzi, and still not be a playoff team next season. Realistically, even if Bloom splurged on both those guys, the club would probably have a better shot at making the postseason in '22, when hopefully one of either ERod and Sale were fully recovered and all the way back as frontline pitchers.

 

The only thing guaranteed by adding three or four mediocre pitchers to a brutal staff is that the new staff will just become mediocre.

[mvp 78]

FWIW, in 2020 Porcello had an fWAR of 1.7 in 59 innings compared to 0.4 in 62 innings for Perez.

 

FanGraphs always loves Porcello.

 

Leaning heavily on that FIP.

 

I think Porcello is a better pitcher, I just think Perez will be much cheaper.

 

If Porcello signed for 1/7.5M I'd be into it.

[mvp 78]

For the Red Sox to contend in '21, this rotation needs a complete overhaul. Any contributions the Sox get from their top three of ERod, Eovaldi and Sale -- all question marks -- just cannot be anticipated. Anything from the bottom three of Pivetta, Mazza and Houk -- all projects -- will be a welcome bonus.

 

Boston could sign the top two free agent starters, Bauer and Odorizzi, and still not be a playoff team next season. Realistically, even if Bloom splurged on both those guys, the club would probably have a better shot at making the postseason in '22, when hopefully one of either ERod and Sale were fully recovered and all the way back as frontline pitchers.

 

The only thing guaranteed by adding three or four mediocre pitchers to a brutal staff is that the new staff will just become mediocre.

 

And they could sign nobody and contend with a rotation of:

 

Sale

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And they could sign nobody and contend with a rotation of:

 

Sale

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

 

Agreed, if they start 157 games like the '04 rotation:

 

Schilling

Martinez

Wakefield

Lowe

Arroyo

[Thunder]

I'd rather Perez than Porcello.

 

Same, but I'm not fond of either option. It's like when the Cowboys play the Eagles. Somebody has to win, but I'd rather not see it

[mvp 78]

Agreed, if they start 157 games like the '04 rotation:

 

Schilling

Martinez

Wakefield

Lowe

Arroyo

 

They have Seabold and Mata who could both come up at some point. 2020 was dreadful, but better bullpen construction and rebound seasons from Beni and JD could fix that.

[Elktonnick]

And they could sign nobody and contend with a rotation of:

 

Sale

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

 

Sale E Rod and Eovaldi will need to travel with an entire wing from Mass Gen Hospital to keep them playing. They give new meaning to the term walking wounded. They might as well have Pedroia at second to.make a complete foursome.

[moonslav59]

ERod may say he's fine, but he will likely be pampered.

 

Eovaldi is almost always out for some or long periods of time. making him the closer may be the best idea.

 

Sale may not be back until July or August.

 

Pivetta could surprise, but we need a plan B.

 

Houck will likely be on a strict pitch and inning count for 2021. He may spend some time in AAA to lengthen his years of team control.

 

Mazza, Seabold and Mata offer some depth, at some point in the season- maybe as "openers".

 

Let's add up the expected months each of the top 5 will pitch: ERod 5-6, Eovaldi 2-5, Sale 1-3, Pivetta 4-6, Houck 3-5= 15-25 months. Let's say 21. That's 3.5 starters total. Expecting Mazza, Seabold and Mata to fill those 48 starts and keep us competitive is asking a lot. If we end up with 15-18 months, it means we have 2.5 to 3 starters total.

 

IMO, we need to add 2 solid & durable SP'ers and maybe one AAA type. If we move Eovaldi to the pen add one more.

[Bellhorn04]

There will likely be some more bullpen games in 2021.

[mvp 78]

Sale E Rod and Eovaldi will need to travel with an entire wing from Mass Gen Hospital to keep them playing. They give new meaning to the term walking wounded. They might as well have Pedroia at second to.make a complete foursome.

 

ERod pitched 200 innings as a 26 year old two years ago. He was out last year, but it had nothing to do with his arm. He'll be fine.

[mvp 78]

There will likely be some more bullpen games in 2021.

 

"Get the duck boats ready!"

 

Kidding aside, if the bullpen is better, I would have no problem with this.

[moonslav59]

ERod pitched 200 innings as a 26 year old two years ago. He was out last year, but it had nothing to do with his arm. He'll be fine.

 

That was the first time he ever cam close to 200 IP. His highest before that was 137. He's had knee issues, which can come back easily.

 

Who knows how much his heart issue will affect his 2021 season. I'm thinking we start him out slowly- very slowly.

[mvp 78]

ERod may say he's fine, but he will likely be pampered.

 

Eovaldi is almost always out for some or long periods of time. making him the closer may be the best idea.

 

Sale may not be back until July or August.

 

Pivetta could surprise, but we need a plan B.

 

Houck will likely be on a strict pitch and inning count for 2021. He may spend some time in AAA to lengthen his years of team control.

 

Mazza, Seabold and Mata offer some depth, at some point in the season- maybe as "openers".

 

Let's add up the expected months each of the top 5 will pitch: ERod 5-6, Eovaldi 2-5, Sale 1-3, Pivetta 4-6, Houck 3-5= 15-25 months. Let's say 21. That's 3.5 starters total. Expecting Mazza, Seabold and Mata to fill those 48 starts and keep us competitive is asking a lot. If we end up with 15-18 months, it means we have 2.5 to 3 starters total.

 

IMO, we need to add 2 solid & durable SP'ers and maybe one AAA type. If we move Eovaldi to the pen add one more.

 

1. The Sox should never be messing around with "team control" stuff. They have the budget and means to play everyone who is ready.

2. If Mata comes up, it won't be as an opener. He'll be full Voltron when up

3. I think you're getting a little too cute with your months needed for starters calculation.

4. I already said that they should sign Lester and Perez due to their durability.

5. I don't think they need a AAA type. They already have Hart. He's the AAA/AAAA guy.

[mvp 78]

That was the first time he ever cam close to 200 IP. His highest before that was 137. He's had knee issues, which can come back easily.

 

Who knows how much his heart issue will affect his 2021 season. I'm thinking we start him out slowly- very slowly.

 

It's his last year under contract. Grip it and rip it and see what happens.

[Thunder]

That was the first time he ever cam close to 200 IP. His highest before that was 137. He's had knee issues, which can come back easily.

 

Who knows how much his heart issue will affect his 2021 season. I'm thinking we start him out slowly- very slowly.

 

I don't think he will ever be the same again. Would love to be proven wrong, but I think we need to take it easy on him all season. I would put him in the #5 spot and alternate his turn in the rotation with somebody else (either bullpen day or the same guy every time) and have that persist all year. If he puts up good numbers early, increase the workload at a snail's pace. We're in a very precarious situation here, because our best two pitchers have so much uncertainty regarding their future potential. It's a crapshoot at this point. Sale could pitch like he did in 2018, and ER how he did in 2019, or they could both be shells of their past selves for the rest of their careers. Overworking either of them this year definitely won't help anything

[notin]

4. I already said that they should sign Lester and Perez due to their durability.

 

 

Last 3 seasons IP and ERA+

 

Lester: 414.1 106

Perez: 312.2 87

Porcello: 424.2 91

Happ: 388.1 105

Odorizzi: 337.0 107

Leake 387.0* 98 (*Skipped 2020)

Paxton 331.1 108

Quintana 355.1 98

Tanaka 386.0 107

Teheran 381.2 99

Urena 282.0* 90 (*60 games but only 49 starts)

Williams 371.2 93

 

 

With regards to durability and performance, Lester actually does make a ton of sense. Perez has been one of the worst pitchers over the last 3 seasons for all the starting options that are available, and he is not remarkably durable. Leake is also one of the more durable options, but he pitches to contact and gives up a lot of home runs. Negotiate at your own risk...

[moonslav59]

Last 3 seasons IP and ERA+

 

Lester: 414.1 106

Perez: 312.2 87

Porcello: 424.2 91

Happ: 388.1 105

Odorizzi: 337.0 107

Leake 387.0* 98 (*Skipped 2020)

Paxton 331.1 108

Quintana 355.1 98

Tanaka 386.0 107

Teheran 381.2 99

Urena 282.0* 90 (*60 games but only 49 starts)

Williams 371.2 93

 

 

With regards to durability and performance, Lester actually does make a ton of sense. Perez has been one of the worst pitchers over the last 3 seasons for all the starting options that are available, and he is not remarkably durable. Leake is also one of the more durable options, but he pitches to contact and gives up a lot of home runs. Negotiate at your own risk...

 

I would not be surprised, if we sign 2 from this list.

[TylerD]

I would not be surprised, if we sign 2 from this list.

 

Doubt we sign Porcello lol.

[notin]

I would not be surprised, if we sign 2 from this list.

 

I think just one if a good trade partner can be found.

 

I think the Sox best spend the bulk of their free agent cash on the bullpen. Two from Bradley, Hand and Robles, please...

[Bellhorn04]

Doubt we sign Porcello lol.

 

You know you want this.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think just one if a good trade partner can be found.

 

I think the Sox best spend the bulk of their free agent cash on the bullpen. Two from Bradley, Hand and Robles, please...

 

I'm ok with it, as long as they sign relievers to use for the middle to end of games...

[notin]

I'm ok with it, as long as they sign relievers to use for the middle to end of games...

 

Again, two from Bradley, Hand and Robles. Or is it Bradley, Robles and Hand? (And Young?)

[moonslav59]

I think just one if a good trade partner can be found.

 

I think the Sox best spend the bulk of their free agent cash on the bullpen. Two from Bradley, Hand and Robles, please...

 

Maybe we trade for RP'ers and sign SP'ers.

 

Many options.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Again, two from Bradley, Hand and Robles. Or is it Bradley, Robles and Hand? (And Young?)

 

The pen's at least a four-way street. Don't let it bring you down; it's only castles burning...

[TylerD]

You know you want this.

 

I do not......

 

 

“Goes and stares at his Porcello poster and cries softly in his bedroom”

[Kimmi]

I do not......

 

“Goes and stares at his Porcello poster and cries softly in his bedroom”

 

I am, and have always been, on the Porcello bandwagon with you.

[Bellhorn04]

I am, and have always been, on the Porcello bandwagon with you.

 

The thing about Porcello is he takes the ball every fifth day, and chomps innings. He has to be one of the most durable pitchers in the game over the last 20 years or more.

[notin]

The pen's at least a four-way street. Don't let it bring you down; it's only castles burning...

 

SOMEONE GOT MY JOKE!!

 

Thought that reference might have been too hidden...

[notin]

The thing about Porcello is he takes the ball every fifth day, and chomps innings. He has to be one of the most durable pitchers in the game over the last 20 years or more.

 

And after 12 years and 2100 IP, he’s still on 31. For a couple more weeks...

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello to innings is like a brontosaurus to tall, leafy trees. Edited December 9, 2020 by Bellhorn04