2021 Prospects

[moonslav59]

And over 99% of player's sons never sniff the bigs.

 

Maybe 98%.

 

Over 99.99% our non player's sons never sniff the bigs.

[mvp 78]

Maybe 98%.

 

Over 99.99% our non player's sons never sniff the bigs.

 

It might give you a leg up at some point, but once you become the college version of Leiter and Rocker, the issue about genetics becomes moot.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pitching is different than hitting. A pitcher controls the action 100%. No other game has that. A pitcher can have less powerful stuff, less movement, etc and still win due to his mind and his execution of his pitches. You need the physical gifts to get big league hitters out. Leiter inherited those. He then was trained both mentally and physically to get where he is and that mentality will serve him well. I think he will be better than his father if he can avoid the injury bug

[moonslav59]

My guess is that sons of MLB players will also be given a longer look and attention by coaches and get access to better training early on in life right through their teens and early 20's- that coupled with a higher chance for better genes gives them a rather significant edge over non-player children.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My guess is that sons of MLB players will also be given a longer look and attention by coaches and get access to better training early on in life right through their teens and early 20's- that coupled with a higher chance for better genes gives them a rather significant edge over non-player children.

 

Everything Moon and Jax have been saying about this topic makes total sense, and I don't know why any organization wouldn't take all those factors into consideration when evaluating such a prospect.

[moonslav59]

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel released his Top 100 Prospects list this week with two Red Sox making the list - Jeter Downs at 41 and Triston Casas at 52. (Eric Longenhagen also put out his Top 100 for Fangraphs, and while he had the same two in his ranking, he ranked them back-to-back at 52 and 53.)

 

He ranked the Red Sox farm system 21st in baseball.

[moonslav59]

My Top 30 Sox Prospects Ranking:

 

1. Casas

2. Downs

3. Mata

4. Dalbec

5. Houck

6. Jimenez

7. Song

8. Duran

9. Seabold

10. Ward

11. Rosario

12. Potts

13. Hernandez

14. A Ramirez

15. Bello

16. German

17. Whitlock

18. Wong

19. Groome

20. Yorke

21. Lugo

22. Jordan

23. Bonaci

24. C Murphy

25. Arauz

26. Bazardo

27. Wallace

28. Zeferjahn

29. E Lopez

30. Winckowski

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel released his Top 100 Prospects list this week with two Red Sox making the list - Jeter Downs at 41 and Triston Casas at 52. (Eric Longenhagen also put out his Top 100 for Fangraphs, and while he had the same two in his ranking, he ranked them back-to-back at 52 and 53.)

 

He ranked the Red Sox farm system 21st in baseball.

 

Keith Law ranked us #20.

[moonslav59]

Keith Law ranked us #20.

 

I sort of expected us to be between 16-19. Maybe after the PTBNL's we might move up a slot or two.

 

The draft might move us up another 2-5 slots, so maybe we'll be at #15 by mid season.

[moonslav59]

None in the top 30 hurts, but two in the top 53 is better than the expected 2 in the top 60 as the league average projects.

 

Who has the best chance at breaking the top 100 by mid season?

 

Mata?

Edited March 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Keith Law ranked us #20.

 

A step up from where we were very recently.

[notin]

None in the top 30 hurts, but two in the top 53 is better than the expected 2 in the top 30 as the league average projects.

 

Who has the best chance at breaking the top 100 by mid season?

 

Mata?

 

Mata will probably have to not suck in AA before he makes it. I have seen some lists than have Jarren Duran as an Honorable Mention. But not Mata...

[moonslav59]

Zach Bryant

[mvp 78]

I just need to get his off my chest:

 

The new Worcester hats and mascot suck. Both are just horrible.

 

With all of the cool and interesting MiLB logos and mascots, why'd we get stuck with this garbage?

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Scouts have said that OF Jeisson Rosario's offensive potential is difficult to evaluate because of the infrequency with which he swings. He took all 6 pitches he saw to work a full-count walk in his first spring training AB.

His K rates have been OK considering his age and level (just over 20% in A at age-18 and HiA at age-19). His walk rates are insanely high (over 16% in HiA), perhaps the better indicator. But B.B. rates aren’t sustainable across levels without offensive impact.

[Bellhorn04]

@alexspeier

Scouts have said that OF Jeisson Rosario's offensive potential is difficult to evaluate because of the infrequency with which he swings. He took all 6 pitches he saw to work a full-count walk in his first spring training AB.

His K rates have been OK considering his age and level (just over 20% in A at age-18 and HiA at age-19). His walk rates are insanely high (over 16% in HiA), perhaps the better indicator. But B.B. rates aren’t sustainable across levels without offensive impact.

 

Interesting to see a young hitter who likes to take walks.

[mvp 78]

Interesting to see a young hitter who likes to take walks.

 

Good defense and a good idea of what the k zone looks like. He's definitely a guy that can bounce around for his career at the very least. It raises his floor a bit.

[moonslav59]

Good defense and a good idea of what the k zone looks like. He's definitely a guy that can bounce around for his career at the very least. It raises his floor a bit.

 

From what I've heard, it may be great defense. Let's hope the offense is not a drag.

[Swiharts Ghost]

b

From what I've heard, it may be great defense. Let's hope the offense is not a drag.

 

Didn’t get to see game today vs ATL .I read Thad Ward struck out Albies and then hit a batter which he does from time to time then committed an error but got out of it with a pop up ? I really like this kid a lot upper 90s FB mid 90s cutter his breaking stuff is pretty good and has a good change .Without killing the kid what was everyone’s impression stuff wise today ? Again I’m very bias but would love opinions .

[mvp 78]

b

 

Didn’t get to see game today vs ATL .I read Thad Ward struck out Albies and then hit a batter which he does from time to time then committed an error but got out of it with a pop up ? I really like this kid a lot upper 90s FB mid 90s cutter his breaking stuff is pretty good and has a good change .Without killing the kid what was everyone’s impression stuff wise today ? Again I’m very bias but would love opinions .

 

Here's the Albies AB:

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1366476286273683458

 

He has great stuff. He's just young and has a ways to go. Fielding errors can be cleaned up over time. He's probably one of the top 5 Sox pitching prospects of the past 10 years, not that that's saying much.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Here's the Albies AB:

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1366476286273683458

 

He has great stuff. He's just young and has a ways to go. Fielding errors can be cleaned up over time. He's probably one of the top 5 Sox pitching prospects of the past 10 years, not that that's saying much.

 

Thankyou and ETA on Ward ? I’m really hoping we see him in September.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ward seems to have bullpen also written all over him. Top end stuff, s*** command

[jacksonianmarch]

One of our big prospects go down, so does one of yours. Mata down with “triceps strain”, MRI pending

[notin]

@alexspeier

Scouts have said that OF Jeisson Rosario's offensive potential is difficult to evaluate because of the infrequency with which he swings. He took all 6 pitches he saw to work a full-count walk in his first spring training AB.

His K rates have been OK considering his age and level (just over 20% in A at age-18 and HiA at age-19). His walk rates are insanely high (over 16% in HiA), perhaps the better indicator. But B.B. rates aren’t sustainable across levels without offensive impact.

 

There is always an exception, of course. Tony Phillips had a long career based on his ability to take walks, and his career .763 OPS was largely carried by his .374 OBP, which was far above his career .266 BA.

 

Now there has really only been one Tony Phillips in MLB history, so hoping Rosario is the second version is probably wishful thinking...

[moonslav59]

There is always an exception, of course. Tony Phillips had a long career based on his ability to take walks, and his career .763 OPS was largely carried by his .374 OBP, which was far above his career .266 BA.

 

Now there has really only been one Tony Phillips in MLB history, so hoping Rosario is the second version is probably wishful thinking...

 

Rickey Henderson had some power, unlike Phillips, but his career OPS was fueled a lot by his OBP, and there was a big differential between his BA and OBP. Here are some others, too...

 

BA/ OBP Player SLG

.267/.403 Henderson .408 (lower SLG than Phillips)

.268/.399 Nick Johnson .441

.273/.392 Phillips .409

.286/.392 Dave Magadan .375

.301/.392 Brett Butler .373

.262/.399 Randy Milligan .413

.283/.378 Tim Raines .405

.289/.378 Knoblauch .406

.270/.372 Q Veras .362 (very low SLG)

.267/.368 M Lawton .417

.290/.368 L Castillo .351

 

[notin]

Rickey Henderson had some power, unlike Phillips, but his career OPS was fueled a lot by his OBP, and there was a big differential between his BA and OBP. Here are some others, too...

 

BA/ OBP Player SLG

.267/.403 Henderson .408 (lower SLG than Phillips)

.268/.399 Nick Johnson .441

.273/.392 Phillips .409

.286/.392 Dave Magadan .375

.301/.392 Brett Butler .373

.262/.399 Randy Milligan .413

.283/.378 Tim Raines .405

.289/.378 Knoblauch .406

.270/.372 Q Veras .362 (very low SLG)

.267/.368 M Lawton .417

.290/.368 L Castillo .351

 

 

Also the infamous Jose Offerman

 

.273 / .360 / .373

[jacksonianmarch]

Rosario is going to be entirely dependent on his position. If he can stick in CF and play average defense, then a guy who can get on base and steal some bases is a plus. If he ends up a COF, then his skillset would be lessened because of the lack of power

[moonslav59]

Rosario is going to be entirely dependent on his position. If he can stick in CF and play average defense, then a guy who can get on base and steal some bases is a plus. If he ends up a COF, then his skillset would be lessened because of the lack of power

 

He's supposed to be a huge plus on D. Why say "average D?"

 

"Strong instincts and reads. Very quick first step. Really can go get it with great closing speed. Will make highlight-reel plays, fun to watch. Potential plus defender in center field. Above-average arm. Plenty for any outfield position. Speed and defense are known quantitites..."

-soxprospects.com

[jacksonianmarch]

If he’s average or better in CF, then his offensive skill set will be good, that’s all I’m saying

[jacksonianmarch]

Mata with a slight UCL tear. Rest and rehab recommended, but these are more than 50-50 odds he ends up needing it fixed