2021 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Mata with a slight UCL tear. Rest and rehab recommended, but these are more than 50-50 odds he ends up needing it fixed

 

He should just go under the knife, now. Mark my words.

[jacksonianmarch]

He should just go under the knife, now. Mark my words.

 

Nearly every f***ing time they rehab this, it ends in surgery. Just fix it

[moonslav59]

Nearly every f***ing time they rehab this, it ends in surgery. Just fix it

 

Exactly. Why even try?

 

Plus, why even wait. The sooner he has it done, the sooner he's back.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Why even try?

 

Plus, why even wait. The sooner he has it done, the sooner he's back.

 

It's natural for us fans to feel that way. The athletes and doctors obviously feel differently, so our opinions don't really matter.

[notin]

Nearly every f***ing time they rehab this, it ends in surgery. Just fix it

 

As a doctor, you know surgery is the most extreme medical solutions and typically a last resort. I get why people try to avoid. Plenty of people who are not MLB pitchers do what they can to avoid it. We as fans get frustrated because we know how it usually ends anyway. But honestly, in the same position, I would do everything I could to avoid surgery...

[jacksonianmarch]

As a doctor, you know surgery is the most extreme medical solutions and typically a last resort. I get why people try to avoid. Plenty of people who are not MLB pitchers do what they can to avoid it. We as fans get frustrated because we know how it usually ends anyway. But honestly, in the same position, I would do everything I could to avoid surgery...

 

This isn't standard medicine. This isnt like a gallbladder or appendix issue where the problems are more apparent and recovery path more concrete. This isn't a 40 year old soft ball player on weekends who has a mild tear who will just rest it and suck it up. This is a professional athlete who is able to use his arm to throw a baseball 98 mph. That is not normal. The UCL keeps the elbow together, for lack of a better term. If it is partially torn, frayed, whatever you want to call it, then surgery is your FASTEST option to get back to prior performance. This is a prime athlete who needs to weigh the risks and benefits of lost prime years to his earning potential. If he rests, rehabs, goes through the throwing programs and tears it late in the season, then he loses all of next year too. If he goes under the knife now, he has less risk of losing all of next year.

 

Here is how I look at it. He is now cooked for the next 3-4 months at a minimum. Now we are into July best case. He is already staring at a lost half season with recovery being uncertain thereafter. By the time he returns, Sale is back, so he isn't an option at the big league level at the outset anyway, so he is gonna be in the minors. If all things work swimmingly, he is looking at a month or two of starting in the minors and maybe, just maybe he can find a way to crack the rotation next year, provided his elbow doesnt explode or his stuff doesnt drop. That is best case, and as we have seen over, and over, and over again, the best case rarely if ever happens. The likelihood is he rests, rehabs, gets PRP, works his way back, pitches in a few games on the minor league level and has return of pain. Then, he gets his TJS in July or August and loses all of 2022 as well.

 

Need I remind you how many times I am right on these things?

Edited March 7, 2021 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

It's natural for us fans to feel that way. The athletes and doctors obviously feel differently, so our opinions don't really matter.

 

True, but there are time when doctors present two or more options for treatment, and the player often chooses the one that does not involve surgery. I don't blame the player, but the results often end up where the players gets the surgery, later, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Top Trade Value of Sox Prospects according to BTV:

24 Casas

21 Downs

14 Duran

14 Hernandez ©

11 Jimenez

8 Yorke

6 Houck

5 Seabold, Ward, Lugo

4 Groome, Song

3 Rosario, Wong, Murphy, Decker

2 Bonaci, Jordan, Potts, Gonzalez, Lopez, Ramirez, Bello, Cannon, Rafaela

1 Koss, Feliz, Flores,Marcan, Vaughn, Wilson, Whitlock, Liu, Espin, Howlett, Wallace, Politi, Brannen, Northcut, Celluci, Drohan, German, Gettys, Reed, Wu-Yelland (0.6 and below not listed)

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Top Trade Value of Sox Prospects according to BTV:

24 Casas

21 Downs

14 Duran

14 Hernandez ©

11 Jimenez

8 Yorke

6 Houck

5 Seabold, Ward, Lugo

4 Groome, Song

3 Rosario, Murphy, Decker

2 Bonaci, Jordan, Potts, Gonzalez, Lopez, Ramirez, Bello, Cannon, Rafaela

1 Koss, Feliz, Flores,Marcan, Vaughn, Wilson, Whitlock, Liu, Espin, Howlett, Wallace, Politi, Brannen, Northcut, Celluci, Drohan, German, Gettys, Reed, Wu-Yelland (0.6 and below not listed)

 

 

Not sure why Hernandez has a higher trade value than Jimenez/Houck/Seabold/Ward.

[moonslav59]

Not sure why Hernandez has a higher trade value than Jimenez/Houck/Seabold/Ward.

 

That's what jumped out at me.

 

Makes that trade look like a steal, since I was fine getting nothing for both of them.

 

I'm not sure I would even trade Wong, Groome and Decker for him.

[mvp 78]

That's what jumped out at me.

 

Makes that trade look like a steal, since I was fine getting nothing for both of them.

 

I'm not sure I would even trade Wong, Groome and Decker for him.

 

Wong has looked good in ST. Almost hit a bomb yesterday. Didn't notice him behind the plate, so that's a good thing.

[notin]

Not sure why Hernandez has a higher trade value than Jimenez/Houck/Seabold/Ward.

 

Proximity to the majors gives him better projections?

[mvp 78]

Proximity to the majors gives him better projections?

 

Houck and Seabold are closer to the bigs? Ward will be on the same team as Hernandez on 5/1.

[moonslav59]

Scouting Reports on Jimenez, Yorke & Bazardo...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2021/03/scouting-report-updates-gilberto.html

[notin]

Houck and Seabold are closer to the bigs? Ward will be on the same team as Hernandez on 5/1.

 

But Herandez has alread been there.

 

Those projections are basically projected fWAR/bWAR against salary projections. As of now, it looks like the difference in projected performance vs projected salary favors Hernandez...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Red Sox Alternate Site roster includes Michael Chavis, Jarren Duran, and Jeter Downs in Worcester. Top prospect Triston Casas remains in Fort Myers to start the year.

[moonslav59]

After some slight adjustments to the top 40 prospect list at soxprospects.com, most notably Whitlock jumping up to #16, here is an updated list of all the top prospects acquired by Bloom:

 

2. Downs (trade)

9. Seabold (trade)

13. Yorke (draft)

14. R Hernandez (trade)

16. Whitlock (rule 5)

17.Rosario (trade)

18. Lugo (draft)

19. Potts (trade)

20.Jordan (draft)

21. Murphy (draft)

23. Arauz (rule 5)

25. Wong (trade)

27. Wallace (trade)

28. Zeferjahn (draft)

29. German (trade)

33. Winckowski (trade)

34. Liu (IFA)

35. Drohan (draft)

38. Blalock (draft)

39. Koss (trade)

 

+ 3 PTBNL from KCR & NYM

 

 

[moonslav59]

My updated top prospect list (sox prospects.com ranking):

1 (7) Houck

2 (5) Dalbec

3 (1) Casas

4 (2) Downs

5 (4) Jimenez

6 (3) Duran

7 (16) Whitlock

8 (9) Seabold

9 (11) Song

10 (6) Mata

11 (17) Rosario

12 (8) Ward

13 (14) R Hernandez

14 (23) Arauz

15 (10) A Ramirez

16 (29) German

17 (33) Winckowski

18 (22) Bazardo

19 (13) Yorke

20 (12) Groome

21 (19) Potts

22 (25) Wong

23 (26) Bello

24 (18) Lugo

25 (20) Jordan

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

After some slight adjustments to the top 40 prospect list at soxprospects.com, most notably Whitlock jumping up to #16, here is an updated list of all the top prospects acquired by Bloom:

 

2. Downs (trade)

9. Seabold (trade)

13. Yorke (draft)

14. R Hernandez (trade)

16. Whitlock (rule 5)

17.Rosario (trade)

18. Lugo (draft)

19. Potts (trade)

20.Jordan (draft)

21. Murphy (draft)

23. Arauz (rule 5)

25. Wong (trade)

27. Wallace (trade)

28. Zeferjahn (draft)

29. German (trade)

33. Winckowski (trade)

34. Liu (IFA)

35. Drohan (draft)

38. Blalock (draft)

39. Koss (trade)

 

+ 3 PTBNL from KCR & NYM

 

 

 

Thanks for this list. Besides the gem that is Whitlock (imagine when he masters his curve), I am most intrigued by Winckowski. I also wonder if Downs sticks at short, since that is where they played him during ST... btw, I think Lugo came pre-Bloom, through the Beltran-Cora connection.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for this list. Besides the gem that is Whitlock (imagine when he masters his curve), I am most intrigued by Winckowski. I also wonder if Downs sticks at short, since that is where they played him during ST... btw, I think Lugo came pre-Bloom, through the Beltran-Cora connection.

 

Yes, Lugo and Zeferjahn were drafted in the DD era. My bad.

[notin]

Thanks for this list. Besides the gem that is Whitlock (imagine when he masters his curve), I am most intrigued by Winckowski. I also wonder if Downs sticks at short, since that is where they played him during ST... btw, I think Lugo came pre-Bloom, through the Beltran-Cora connection.

 

Lugo was drafted in 2019 (second round), several months prior to Bloom's hire....

[notin]

Thanks for this list. Besides the gem that is Whitlock (imagine when he masters his curve), I am most intrigued by Winckowski. I also wonder if Downs sticks at short, since that is where they played him during ST... btw, I think Lugo came pre-Bloom, through the Beltran-Cora connection.

 

Also the PTBNL from the Mets should also be a very intriguing one, as Khalil Lee was regarded as a very solid prospect and therefore likely demands a very solid one in return. I'm guessing J.T. Ginn. But I doubt we see anyone named until the 6 month deadline gets very near...

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Per MiLB website transactions, the Red Sox made a round of cuts from the minor leagues, releasing the following players:

 

OF Caleb Ramsey

RHP Yoelvis Guedez

RHP Kevin Biondic

RHP Reed Harrington

RHP Richardson Jimenez

RHP Hunter Haworth

IF/OF Jagger Rusconi

[notin]

@SoxProspects

Per MiLB website transactions, the Red Sox made a round of cuts from the minor leagues, releasing the following players:

 

OF Caleb Ramsey

RHP Yoelvis Guedez

RHP Kevin Biondic

RHP Reed Harrington

RHP Richardson Jimenez

RHP Hunter Haworth

IF/OF Jagger Rusconi

 

I heard of Jagger Rusconi, but only because of Bellhorn's "Fun with Baseball Names" thread...

[moonslav59]

Duran moves into Baseball America's Top 100 List at #99.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock and IP'd...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-doesnt-red-sox-garrett-whitlock-pitch-more-let-dave-bush-explain

 

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

In May, Red Sox 2019 fourth-rounder Noah Song is eligible to seek an early release from active duty with the Navy in exchange for a six-year commitment to the Naval Reserve.

 

As of right now there no updates and the Red Sox are continuing to support him in flight school.

 

Last I heard was that May was the earliest he could get out, but that he's not fast tracked his workload that way. Maybe he'll get a peak towards the end of the season, but it's more likely we don't see him until 2022.

[jacksonianmarch]

@jcmccaffrey

In May, Red Sox 2019 fourth-rounder Noah Song is eligible to seek an early release from active duty with the Navy in exchange for a six-year commitment to the Naval Reserve.

 

As of right now there no updates and the Red Sox are continuing to support him in flight school.

 

Last I heard was that May was the earliest he could get out, but that he's not fast tracked his workload that way. Maybe he'll get a peak towards the end of the season, but it's more likely we don't see him until 2022.

 

6 year commit to the reserve is problematic for sure. That means a weekend a month plus the chance to get deployed for a conflict. It is almost better to have him serve his term and come out unhindered

[mvp 78]

Happy MiLB Opening Day!

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

As to #RedSox starter depth, here is the Worcester rotation to open the season:

 

RHP Tanner Houck

RHP Raynel Espinal

RHP Daniel Gossett

LHP Stephen Gonsalves

LHP Kyle Hart

 

Connor Seabold is on the IL with elbow inflammation but it's precautionary.