Who Will the Red Sox Sign, This Winter?

[moonslav59]

Assuming we pass on Bauer and Realmuto, who will we sign?

 

George Springer OF 31

Marcus Stroman RHP 29

Marcell Ozuna DH/OF 30

DJ LeMahieu 2B 32

Taijuan Walker RHP 28

Masahiro Tanaka RHP 32

Robbie Ray LHP 29

Mike Minor 33

Jake Odorizzi RHP 31

James Paxton LHP 32

Joc Pederson OF 28

Michael Brantley OF 33

Justin Turner 3B 36

Tommy La Stella 2B/3B 32

Cespedes 35 or Puig 30 OF

 

Pen:

Liam Hendricks RHP 32

Blake Treinen RHP 32

Alex Colome RHP 32

Shane Greene 32

 

Write-in: _________________

[notin]

Brantley, Kolten Wong (if St. Louis declines his option), Trevor Rosenthal and James McCann

 

Benintendi and Vazquez are moved for pitching...

[harmony]

Four of:

 

CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

SP Jake Odorizzi ®

SP Michael Wacha ®

RP Kelvin Herrera ®

RP Nick Vincent ®

RP Luis Avilan (L)

 

Red Sox exec Chaim Bloom may resist the temptation to become immediately competitive in 2021.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

I could see Odorizzi, Brantley, Rosenthal, Greene and K Wong.

[harmony]

Four of:

 

CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

SP Jake Odorizzi ®

SP Michael Wacha ®

RP Kelvin Herrera ®

RP Nick Vincent ®

RP Luis Avilan (L)

 

Red Sox exec Chaim Bloom may resist the temptation to become immediately competitive in 2021.

 

Or not.

Add SP Rick Porcello ®

[moonslav59]

Add SP Rick Porcello ®

 

Nope

[Kimmi]

Four of:

 

CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

SP Jake Odorizzi ®

SP Michael Wacha ®

RP Kelvin Herrera ®

RP Nick Vincent ®

RP Luis Avilan (L)

 

Red Sox exec Chaim Bloom may resist the temptation to become immediately competitive in 2021.

 

Or not.

 

Not gonna happen.

 

Becoming competitive does not mean signing big contracts. We will be competitive. We won't sign big contracts.

[Nick]

Not gonna happen.

 

Becoming competitive does not mean signing big contracts. We will be competitive. We won't sign big contracts.

 

I like that approach....

[notin]

Not gonna happen.

 

Becoming competitive does not mean signing big contracts. We will be competitive. We won't sign big contracts.

 

To be fair, I don’t think anyone on that list is getting a big contract...

[Kimmi]

I like that approach....

 

It's a good approach.

[Kimmi]

To be fair, I don’t think anyone on that list is getting a big contract...

 

Probably not. I was responding to Harmony's comment about being non-competitive.

[Larry Cook]

Looking at our team, I think we need the following:

 

1.) a 2nd tier starting pitcher.

2.) a closer for the bullpen.

3.) two additional power set up arms for the bullpen.

4.) a center fielder. Resigning either Bradley or pillar works for me.

5.) someone to step up at 2nd base. I do not see Chavis as anything other than an outfielder.

 

If we hit on these six players, we will go back to the playoffs,

[Kimmi]

Looking at our team, I think we need the following:

 

1.) a 2nd tier starting pitcher.

2.) a closer for the bullpen.

3.) two additional power set up arms for the bullpen.

4.) a center fielder. Resigning either Bradley or pillar works for me.

5.) someone to step up at 2nd base. I do not see Chavis as anything other than an outfielder.

 

If we hit on these six players, we will go back to the playoffs,

 

I am on board with this. I'm not sure the relievers all need to be back end relievers, but sounds good. Just don't spend a lot of money on them.

[moonslav59]

Looking at our team, I think we need the following:

 

1.) a 2nd tier starting pitcher.

2.) a closer for the bullpen.

3.) two additional power set up arms for the bullpen.

4.) a center fielder. Resigning either Bradley or pillar works for me.

5.) someone to step up at 2nd base. I do not see Chavis as anything other than an outfielder.

 

If we hit on these six players, we will go back to the playoffs,

 

I don't see Chavis as the 2B first slot, right now. Arroyo is.

 

With Munoz, Chavis and maybe Chatham is reserve with Down farther away, maybe they skip trying to add here.

 

1. Solid 2nd tier SP

2. Closer

3. Solid RP'er

4. Solid RP'er

5. CF (I would not bring JBJ back at more than $4M a year.)

[Larry Cook]

I don't see Chavis as the 2B first slot, right now. Arroyo is.

 

With Munoz, Chavis and maybe Chatham is reserve with Down farther away, maybe they skip trying to add here.

 

1. Solid 2nd tier SP

2. Closer

3. Solid RP'er

4. Solid RP'er

5. CF (I would not bring JBJ back at more than $4M a year.)

 

What exactly do we have with Munoz? Can we really depend on him over the course of a full season.

[kenmeister]

Why isn't Trevor Bauer a possibility?

[Thunder]

Why isn't Trevor Bauer a possibility?

 

Because we aren't allowed to have nice things

[Bellhorn04]

Why isn't Trevor Bauer a possibility?

 

He might be. But the Red Sox have been burned on so many big dollar contracts in the last decade.

[harmony]

Why isn't Trevor Bauer a possibility?

The team that signs Trevor Bauer may be buying high as the righthander ranks only 16th in fWAR among pitchers since the start of the 2019 season despite his stellar 2020 campaign:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The team that signs Trevor Bauer may be buying high as the righthander ranks only 16th in fWAR among pitchers since the start of the 2019 season despite his stellar 2020 campaign:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

Plus, according to columnists, the main reason the Red Sox won't sign a top free agent -- translation, any player offered a qualifying offer -- is because they don't want to lose their coveted second-round draft pick. You know... someone who someday might make the major leagues.

[notin]

The team that signs Trevor Bauer may be buying high as the righthander ranks only 16th in fWAR among pitchers since the start of the 2019 season despite his stellar 2020 campaign:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

Looking at the pitching leaderboards since the 2017 season (which gives the last 3 full seasons plus), Bauer ranks ninth in fWAR with 14.4.

 

Other free agents among the leaders include:

Corey Kluber (11th with 14.1 fWAR)

James Paxton (18th with 11.9 fWAR)

Mike Minor (28th with 9.8 fWAR)

Marcus Stroman (36th with 8.7 fWAR)

Rick Porcello (41st with 7.9 fWAR)

Jon Lester (41st with 7.9 fWAR) (Team Option left. Probably picked up because the buyout is $10mill)

Chris Archer (45th with 7.7 fWAR)

Jake Odirizzi (53rd with 6.9 fWAR)

Cole Hamels (56th with 6.5 fWAR)

Robbie Ray (61st with 6.2 fWAR)

Mike Leake (64th with 6.1 fWAR) (with team option, but not a likely one to be exercised)

Jake Arrieta (64th with 6.1 fWAR)

Anibal Sanchez (71st with 5.7 fWAR)

 

 

And so on. That seems like enough digging...

[notin]

Plus, according to columnists, the main reason the Red Sox won't sign a top free agent -- translation, any player offered a qualifying offer -- is because they don't want to lose their coveted second-round draft pick. You know... someone who someday might make the major leagues.

 

Bauer is a no-brainer to get a QO, but I think the possibility of committing to another David Price contract is a bigger deterrent than a lost draft pick. It's actually pretty difficult for a lot of these scribes to get a handle on Bloom because he is not guaranteed to run the Sox the same way he ran the Rays, just like how Dan Duquette did not run the Sox the same way he ran the Expos.

 

But even then, how many free agent pitchers are actually likely to get a QO this off-season? Bear in mind, some teams might not be spending like they normally do. Beyond Bauer, there are no other definites. And Bauer might even be a moot point as a free agent, since it is possible he might actually accept the qualifying offer and wait out the market another year. He certainly has not expressed a reluctance to gamble on himself before...

[Thunder]

Looking at the pitching leaderboards since the 2017 season (which gives the last 3 full seasons plus), Bauer ranks ninth in fWAR with 14.4.

 

Other free agents among the leaders include:

Corey Kluber (11th with 14.1 fWAR)

James Paxton (18th with 11.9 fWAR)

Mike Minor (28th with 9.8 fWAR)

Marcus Stroman (36th with 8.7 fWAR)

Rick Porcello (41st with 7.9 fWAR)

Jon Lester (41st with 7.9 fWAR) (Team Option left. Probably picked up because the buyout is $10mill)

Chris Archer (45th with 7.7 fWAR)

Jake Odirizzi (53rd with 6.9 fWAR)

Cole Hamels (56th with 6.5 fWAR)

Robbie Ray (61st with 6.2 fWAR)

Mike Leake (64th with 6.1 fWAR) (with team option, but not a likely one to be exercised)

Jake Arrieta (64th with 6.1 fWAR)

Anibal Sanchez (71st with 5.7 fWAR)

 

 

And so on. That seems like enough digging...

 

On an unrelated note, Lester has been in the league forever. I remember his no hitter. How in the hell was that 12 years ago? He's only 36. Not bad for somebody who entered the league in 2006

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at the pitching leaderboards since the 2017 season (which gives the last 3 full seasons plus), Bauer ranks ninth in fWAR with 14.4.

 

Other free agents among the leaders include:

Corey Kluber (11th with 14.1 fWAR)

James Paxton (18th with 11.9 fWAR)

Mike Minor (28th with 9.8 fWAR)

Marcus Stroman (36th with 8.7 fWAR)

Rick Porcello (41st with 7.9 fWAR)

Jon Lester (41st with 7.9 fWAR) (Team Option left. Probably picked up because the buyout is $10mill)

Chris Archer (45th with 7.7 fWAR)

Jake Odirizzi (53rd with 6.9 fWAR)

Cole Hamels (56th with 6.5 fWAR)

Robbie Ray (61st with 6.2 fWAR)

Mike Leake (64th with 6.1 fWAR) (with team option, but not a likely one to be exercised)

Jake Arrieta (64th with 6.1 fWAR)

Anibal Sanchez (71st with 5.7 fWAR)

 

 

And so on. That seems like enough digging...

 

That's a lot of ulnar collateral ligaments and rotator cuffs in their 30s. What have you slung for me lately?

 

I'm leaning more and more towards Bloom convincing some team to part with a good pitcher in his prime... for example, a guy like Lucas Sims, 26, who absolutely gassed the Braves yesterday. I know I keep going back to the Reds as possible suitors, but that's the type of team that can use some actual offense; not only did they score zero runs in two playoff games, but they set the MLB record this summer for highest percentage of runs driven in by home runs at 60%. That's a lot of all or nothing.

[notin]

That's a lot of ulnar collateral ligaments and rotator cuffs in their 30s. What have you slung for me lately?

 

I'm leaning more and more towards Bloom convincing some team to part with a good pitcher in his prime... for example, a guy like Lucas Sims, 26, who absolutely gassed the Braves yesterday. I know I keep going back to the Reds as possible suitors, but that's the type of team that can use some actual offense; not only did they score zero runs in two playoff games, but they set the MLB record this summer for highest percentage of runs driven in by home runs at 60%. That's a lot of all or nothing.

 

Sims is a former top Atlanta prospect who just took forever, and really, has yet to prove anything. He has only 142 career IP and an ERA+ of 92. One good game might be proof he has turned a corner. But it also might be one good game.

 

The rest of the Reds staff include Bauer, Sonny Gray, Anthony Desclafini (oft-injured free agent with one good season) and Tyler Mahle. Mahle was terrific this year, but in 47 IP. But if anyone on that staff has turned a corner, I would gamble it was Mahle over Sims.

 

The problem with dealing with the Reds is their biggest need is a shortstop, where they ranked 29th in fWAR. I seriously doubt they see CJ Chatham as the solution. Or even as an upgrade. So is there a match up?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sims is a former top Atlanta prospect who just took forever, and really, has yet to prove anything. He has only 142 career IP and an ERA+ of 92. One good game might be proof he has turned a corner. But it also might be one good game.

 

The rest of the Reds staff include Bauer, Sonny Gray, Anthony Desclafini (oft-injured free agent with one good season) and Tyler Mahle. Mahle was terrific this year, but in 47 IP. But if anyone on that staff has turned a corner, I would gamble it was Mahle over Sims.

 

The problem with dealing with the Reds is their biggest need is a shortstop, where they ranked 29th in fWAR. I seriously doubt they see CJ Chatham as the solution. Or even as an upgrade. So is there a match up?

 

Probably not, since Cincy is who traded Jeter Downs in the first place. Devers wouldn't be much of an upgrade, either, since the Reds already have a slugger/hacker at third in Suarez (Rafie is a better fit in Atlanta, but it's probably too late now to get Ian Anderson, eying little contact with bad intent). Vazquez may be Boston's best chip here, but probably only for a Mahle/Sims package; I don't see him yielding a starter.

 

So Sox fans are just going to have to be satisfied with mediocre recruits this winter unless Bloom is prepared to pull the trigger on a Verdugo for Castillo type deal. If AV is on the table, then so is everyone, including Casas.

 

Ultimately, moving Bogaerts for good pitching and then signing Lindor, Correa or Story remains a desperate or viable possibility...

[notin]

Probably not, since Cincy is who traded Jeter Downs in the first place. Devers wouldn't be much of an upgrade, either, since the Reds already have a slugger/hacker at third in Suarez (Rafie is a better fit in Atlanta, but it's probably too late now to get Ian Anderson, eying little contact with bad intent). Vazquez may be Boston's best chip here, but probably only for a Mahle/Sims package; I don't see him yielding a starter.

 

So Sox fans are just going to have to be satisfied with mediocre recruits this winter unless Bloom is prepared to pull the trigger on a Verdugo for Castillo type deal. If AV is on the table, then so is everyone, including Casas.

 

Ultimately, moving Bogaerts for good pitching and then signing Lindor, Correa or Story remains a desperate or viable possibility...

 

I actually expect Cincy to for Andrelton Simmons at shortstop this offseason, which not only kills their need for a SS, but also takes away the guy I would sign if the Sox dealt X.

 

Vazquez is a decent trade chip, and the Sox reportedly had talks with Tampa about him, although they might not have progressed as far as news interpretations suggest

 

Neander: "What do you want for Christian Vazquez?"

Bloom: "Your mother."

 

Technically, those are talks about Vazquez, but not really a strong indicator that he is available.

 

But let's say he is, because, well, what else have we got to talk about on here?

 

Per B-R, Vazquez hs one year $6.5mill remaining on his deal, with a very exercisable team option that turns it into a 2 year $13.25mill deal. There's a bonus for him exceeding 502 PA in 2020 and 2021, but I don't know how to view that since it did not have any known Pandemic Safety Clause.

 

His contract, coupled with his projected fWAR, has made BTV value Vazquez with a surplus trade value of $14.4 mill. Some starting pitchers falling within about $1mill of that on either side include: Framber Valdez (Astros), Domingo German (Yankees), Anthony Senzatela (Rockies), David Peterson (Mets), Kyle Freeland (Rockies), Kris Bubic (Royals), Logan Webb (Giants), and Sean Manaea (A's). The site lists Bubic's availablity as "Low", but everyone else as "Medium". so scratch Bubic. And German, because he is a Yankee.

 

The Astros do control their starting catcher (Martin Maldonado) for one more year, and I am going to assume would be happier with Maldonado and Valdez that they would be with Vazquez and without Valdez. The A's have Sean "Exit Velocity" Murphy, and will not want Vazquez. And the Giants have already started the service time clock for top prospect Joey Bart.

 

From the remaining teams, the Rockies finished dead last in catcher fWAR last season, and have two pitchers viewed as roughly equal to Vazquez. The Mets are losing staring catcher Wilson Ramos to free agency. So that leaves Anthony Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and David Peterson as the best options. Any preference? (Personally, I go Senzatela here. But there is no wrong choice yet IMO.)

 

If you're expecting Bloom to add some budding star like Tony Gonsolin or Ian Anderson or Aaron Civale for Vazquez, it's not going to happen. In fact, even one of thee three named above might be unlikely, especially if their respective GMs don't see Vazquez as being an immediate solution...

[notin]

That's a lot of ulnar collateral ligaments and rotator cuffs in their 30s. What have you slung for me lately?

 

See, this is why I am against giving out 7 year $217 mill contracts.

 

And sometimes getting another GM to part with a "good pitcher in his prime" is like asking a new father to trade away his infant daughter...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From the remaining teams, the Rockies finished dead last in catcher fWAR last season, and have two pitchers viewed as roughly equal to Vazquez. The Mets are losing staring catcher Wilson Ramos to free agency. So that leaves Anthony Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and David Peterson as the best options. Any preference? (Personally, I go Senzatela here. But there is no wrong choice yet IMO.)

 

 

Senzatela has less mileage and is cheaper, but after Freeland had his career year at 25, I thought he'd be a good target some day because he succeeded in Colorado... (though Ubaldo never did much in the AL). Freeland's regressed the last few seasons, but tied for the MLB lead in games started this summer; that's the kind of stat that would jump out at me if I was trying to assemble a rotation out of a no-tation.

[harmony]

Would the Arizona Diamondbacks be interested in Christian Vazquez in exchange for three years of righthander Luke Weaver, who has a surplus value of $15.6 million at Baseball Trade Values?

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9711/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luke-weaver/16918/stats?position=P

 

The Diamondbacks ranked 17th in catcher fWAR this year with a wRC+ of 66:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=16,a