A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Well, we see some of all of it, really.

 

I would be fine if we could move on from it. Both those guys won titles, both are gone, Bloom is here, Ben is in Pittsburgh, DD is involved with the Nashville deal.

 

DD will GM again one day. But the pandemic does cramp his style so he best wait a bit...

[cp176]

Not sure what's juvenile, but I welcome all opinions.

 

How long has DD been gone? I have not brought his name up at all unless someone here has run their mouths disparaging his work. i truly believe that there are in fact a few people here who get their jollies trying to get a response of anger from people who do not agree with them. that I consider juvenile. That is what I consider to be juvenile - kind of like something one my little 7th graders would have done. Kind of like constantly repeating what someone else says just to bug them. It has been suggested once or twice that if I don't like discussing something with someone that I should put them on ignore. Not going to happen. i'll just keep on keeping on.

[moonslav59]

How long has DD been gone? I have not brought his name up at all unless someone here has run their mouths disparaging his work. i truly believe that there are in fact a few people here who get their jollies trying to get a response of anger from people who do not agree with them. that I consider juvenile. That is what I consider to be juvenile - kind of like something one my little 7th graders would have done. Kind of like constantly repeating what someone else says just to bug them. It has been suggested once or twice that if I don't like discussing something with someone that I should put them on ignore. Not going to happen. i'll just keep on keeping on.

 

I hardly bring up DD (or Ben) either, unless in response to someone else bringing them up.

 

Certainly there are posters who post to get under people's skins, but I don't think it gets out of hand. Kimmie may be DD'd biggest critic, but I don't see her as being even close to juvenile. I'm not asking for you to name names, but I'm not seeing what you are, but hey, that's what makes for a lively discussion board.

[moonslav59]

So, according to cots, the Sox have about $35M to spend under the lux tax and $55M to stay under the second penalty line.

 

I'm not sure, if there is a directive to stay under either line, but let's assume Bloom is given about $35M as a guideline.

 

Going by the numbers from MLBTR, which of these two signing groups would you choose?

 

A.

$32M x 4 Bauer

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

B.

$25M x 5 Realmuto (Trade Vaz for a CFand/or RP'er)

$9M Quintana

 

C.

$25M x 5 Springer

$9M x 2 Quintana

 

D.

$18M x 4 Ozuna

$17M x 4 Stroman

 

E.

$17M x 4 Stroman

$13M x 3 Tanaka

$5M x 1 Pillar

 

F.

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 3 L Hendricks

$10M x 2 J McCann (Traded Vaz for a CF'er)

 

F.

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

G.

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 T Walker

$8M x 2 K Wong (Duran in CF)

 

H.

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 K Wong

$7M x 2 T May

$3M x 1 Marisnik (Total $37M)

 

I.

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 K Wong

$8M x 1 C Morton

$7M x 2 T May

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

J.

$8M x 1 C Morton

$6M x 1 C Hernandez (2B)

$6M x 1 A Colome

$5M x 1 Lester

$4M x 1 Desclafani

$5M x 1 Pillar

 

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by moonslav59

[cp176]

I hardly bring up DD (or Ben) either, unless in response to someone else bringing them up.

 

Certainly there are posters who post to get under people's skins, but I don't think it gets out of hand. Kimmie may be DD'd biggest critic, but I don't see her as being even close to juvenile. I'm not asking for you to name names, but I'm not seeing what you are, but hey, that's what makes for a lively discussion board.

 

Once again, I think that it is important to have posters with varying opinions. I appreciate your contributions. Obviously i don't agree with you all of the time. This is likely one of those times I guess.

[Kimmi]

I'm not a basher. Just grouchy a lot.

 

I am neither a basher nor am I grouchy.

 

Just here to spread the truth.

[Kimmi]

Cherington rocks!

 

Post of the Day!

[moonslav59]

Once again, I think that it is important to have posters with varying opinions. I appreciate your contributions. Obviously i don't agree with you all of the time. This is likely one of those times I guess.

 

I respect you and your opinions as much, if not more, than most posters here. Yes, we disagree a lot, but we do find common ground from time to time, and I enjoy discussing the Red Sox with you.

 

On this sensitive issue, I think people and posters tend to get emotional when things are going badly. It seems to be our nature to seek to blame somebody for the problems we have, right now. Some even blame Henry- the greatest thing that's ever happened to the Sox. We've even seen Theo and Tito and just about every person with a major role in the last two decades of the Red Sox history of success get blasted at some point or another.

 

Nobody is perfect, and we tend to let them know when they are not. I guess that can be seen as juvenile, unfair and a lot of other words, too. I get your point, and you have been very consistent and unwavering with it for as long as I've known you.

 

Perhaps, I have been hypercritical, at times, as my passion for winning probably gets the best of me, but it's clear we all love the Sox in our own ways- sometimes in a bit peculiar ways.

 

Anyways, I greatly appreciate your contributions, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So, according to cots, the Sox have about $35M to spend under the lux tax and $55M to stay under the second penalty line.

 

I'm not sure, if there is a directive to stay under either line, but let's assume Bloom is given about $35M as a guideline.

 

Going by the numbers from MLBTR, which of these two signing groups would you choose?

 

A.

$32M x 4 Bauer

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

B.

$25M x 5 Realmuto (Trade Vaz for a CFand/or RP'er)

$9M Quintana

 

C.

$25M x 5 Springer

$9M x 2 Quintana

 

D.

$18M x 4 Ozuna

$17M x 4 Stroman

 

E.

$17M x 4 Stroman

$13M x 3 Tanaka

$5M x 1 Pillar

 

F.

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 3 L Hendricks

$10M x 2 J McCann (Traded Vaz for a CF'er)

 

F.

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

G.

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 T Walker

$8M x 2 K Wong (Duran in CF)

 

H.

$10M x 1 Paxton

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 K Wong

$7M x 2 T May

$3M x 1 Marisnik (Total $37M)

 

I.

$9M x 2 Quintana

$8M x 2 K Wong

$8M x 1 C Morton

$7M x 2 T May

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

J.

$8M x 1 C Morton

$6M x 1 C Hernandez (2B)

$6M x 1 A Colome

$5M x 1 Lester

$4M x 1 Desclafani

$5M x 1 Pillar

 

 

 

Probably J., because I want as many MLB pitchers as possible. But I disagree with a lot of dollar projections, and can see $35M possibly yielding all of Stroman, Odorizzi, Hand or Hendriks and a cheap CFer. Plus, I think it's 50-50 Morton retires, and even less he'd want to finish in crappy weather Boston after moving down to Florida.

[moonslav59]

Probably J., because I want as many MLB pitchers as possible. But I disagree with a lot of dollar projections, and can see $35M possibly yielding all of Stroman, Odorizzi, Hand or Hendriks and a cheap CFer. Plus, I think it's 50-50 Morton retires, and even less he'd want to finish in crappy weather Boston after moving down to Florida.

 

I like something like "J", too, but I think we should try to sign at least one guy to 3 or more years, especially if we are seeing "Bargain rates".

[moonslav59]

Maybe this might work, assuming $35M is the suggested guideline:

 

$13 x 3 Odorizzi

$9M x 2 Quintana

$6M x 1 Hernandez

$4M x 1 Desclafani

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe this might work, assuming $35M is the suggested guideline:

 

$13 x 3 Odorizzi

$9M x 2 Quintana

$6M x 1 Hernandez

$4M x 1 Desclafani

$3M x 1 Marisnik

 

 

This allows for Duran & Downs to win the CF & 2B jobs by 2022. It only adds 1 RP'er, but we could add more at the deadline, or use Eovaldi as the closer.

 

Both SP'ers have question marks, but none are long term signings or high-priced signings.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

[/i]

 

This allows for Duran & Downs to win the CF & 2B jobs by 2022. It only adds 1 RP'er, but we could add more at the deadline, or use Eovaldi as the closer.

 

Both SP'ers have question marks, but none are long term signings or high-priced signings.

 

Aren't Quintana, Odorizzi and Desclafani all starters? I like Hernandez at second, but prioritize a legit closer first for more immediate improvement.

[moonslav59]

Aren't Quintana, Odorizzi and Desclafani all starters? I like Hernandez at second, but prioritize a legit closer first for more immediate improvement.

 

I was thinking Desclafani is a RP'er. Moving Eovaldi would solve that "logjam."

[mvp 78]

Aren't Quintana, Odorizzi and Desclafani all starters? I like Hernandez at second, but prioritize a legit closer first for more immediate improvement.

 

Red Sox Team Stats 2020:

25th in starter ERA, 30th in starter WHIP

27th in reliever ERA, 28th in reliever WHIP

 

I think they need to focus on both if they want immediate improvement. However, the Sox bullpen lead the league in IP. Maybe having better starting pitching would keep them from having to put so many innings on a poor relief crew? Maybe adding more starters pushes some better pitchers into a relief role which gets rid of some of the truly terrible relief options that were on 2020's staff?

[mvp 78]

And just as an FYI, the Sox were a top 10 offensive team this year (even with miserable years from Beni, JD and Devers). I think the vast majority of this year's offseason should be spend fixing the pitching staff. The offense was fine.

[moonslav59]

And just as an FYI, the Sox were a top 10 offensive team this year (even with miserable years from Beni, JD and Devers). I think the vast majority of this year's offseason should be spend fixing the pitching staff. The offense was fine.

 

Very true, and one can hope we see improvements from those who were down in 2021. It may be hard to replace JBJ's 2021 numbers, even with JBJ returning.

 

As for the pitching, we were 30th in team fWAR pitching at -0.2. The next closest team was AZ at +1.5. We were second worst in ERA- at 121 (DET was 126).

 

Starters: 24th in ERA- at 115

Relievers: 26th in ERA- at 125

[mvp 78]

Very true, and one can hope we see improvements from those who were down in 2021. It may be hard to replace JBJ's 2021 numbers, even with JBJ returning.

 

As for the pitching, we were 30th in team fWAR pitching at -0.2. The next closest team was AZ at +1.5. We were second worst in ERA- at 121 (DET was 126).

 

Starters: 24th in ERA- at 115

Relievers: 26th in ERA- at 125

 

How do you allocate the blame pie for the pitching woes?

 

10% Dave Bush

25% Chaim Bloom

25% John Henry's Checkbook

30% COVID and injuries

10% SSS

[notin]

Very true, and one can hope we see improvements from those who were down in 2021. It may be hard to replace JBJ's 2021 numbers, even with JBJ returning.

 

As for the pitching, we were 30th in team fWAR pitching at -0.2. The next closest team was AZ at +1.5. We were second worst in ERA- at 121 (DET was 126).

 

Starters: 24th in ERA- at 115

Relievers: 26th in ERA- at 125

 

Which is why I have been saying the bullpen is the bigger issue.

 

There are no difference-making free agent starters worth going for if Bloom avoids anyone with a QO. But there are some relievers worth going for, including Hand, Handriks, May, Kela, Osuna, and Rosenthal.

 

I still think Bloom signs a starter, but he will be better off doing his heavy spending on the bullpen and making a deal for a better starting pitcher...

[Bellhorn04]

How do you allocate the blame pie for the pitching woes?

 

10% Dave Bush

25% Chaim Bloom

25% John Henry's Checkbook

30% COVID and injuries

10% SSS

 

Me:

 

50% John Henry's Checkbook

40% COVID and injuries

10% SSS

[a700hitter]

80% Bloom

20% Injury

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Which is why I have been saying the bullpen is the bigger issue.

 

There are no difference-making free agent starters worth going for if Bloom avoids anyone with a QO. But there are some relievers worth going for, including Hand, Handriks, May, Kela, Osuna, and Rosenthal.

 

I still think Bloom signs a starter, but he will be better off doing his heavy spending on the bullpen and making a deal for a better starting pitcher...

 

We need both Hand and Hendriks, but as a fan I'm just not that interested in watching a team built on bullpenning, and not even knowing who's starting the next day's playoff game (if there is one). The Yankees assembled "the greatest bullpen in history" according to the NY and national media, but how far have their recent clubs built on strikeout pitchers and home run hitters gone?

 

Boston's bullpen was certainly worse the last few years because of overuse due to unreliable starters. Plus, I'm still exhausted from watching a summer of failed auditions for the rotation. Give me inning eaters, please, even mediocre ones. Otherwise, Hand/Hendriks/Pap/Koji/Eck/Mo will burn out, too.

 

MLB.com just ranked teams by talent and Colorado finished dead last; the Beantown doormats were 13th? But the Rox' entire starting rotation is under 30, under control (cheap) and maybe underrated, as in Coors battle-tested. That would be where I'd look to make a deal asap.

[notin]

We need both Hand and Hendriks, but as a fan I'm just not that interested in watching a team built on bullpenning, and not even knowing who's starting the next day's playoff game (if there is one). The Yankees assembled "the greatest bullpen in history" according to the NY and national media, but how far have their recent clubs built on strikeout pitchers and home run hitters gone?

 

Boston's bullpen was certainly worse the last few years because of overuse due to unreliable starters. Plus, I'm still exhausted from watching a summer of failed auditions for the rotation. Give me inning eaters, please, even mediocre ones. Otherwise, Hand/Hendriks/Pap/Koji/Eck/Mo will burn out, too.

 

MLB.com just ranked teams by talent and Colorado finished dead last; the Beantown doormats were 13th? But the Rox' entire starting rotation is under 30, under control (cheap) and maybe underrated, as in Coors battle-tested. That would be where I'd look to make a deal asap.

 

I'd love for the Sox to get Jon Gray, a former #1 overall pick whose just been wasting away in the most hitter-friendly park on the planet. The biggest issue is he has only one year of cotnrol left, but that can be handled with an extension.

 

I do assume Bloom will sign an innings-eater type, with Porcello as my top choice. The guy never gets hurt, has had success for the Sox, and his 3.33 FIP suggests his 5.64 ERA might be an illusion. And is still only 31 years old despite his lengthy career. (He turns 32 in December.)

[notin]

We need both Hand and Hendriks, but as a fan I'm just not that interested in watching a team built on bullpenning, and not even knowing who's starting the next day's playoff game (if there is one). The Yankees assembled "the greatest bullpen in history" according to the NY and national media, but how far have their recent clubs built on strikeout pitchers and home run hitters gone?

 

 

.

 

 

Hendriks over Osuna?

 

And I think you overlook the potential biggest bargain in Keone Kela.

 

Also, I actually expect there to be a Workman reunion...

[dgalehouse]

I'd love for the Sox to get Jon Gray, a former #1 overall pick whose just been wasting away in the most hitter-friendly park on the planet. The biggest issue is he has only one year of cotnrol left, but that can be handled with an extension.

 

I do assume Bloom will sign an innings-eater type, with Porcello as my top choice. The guy never gets hurt, has had success for the Sox, and his 3.33 FIP suggests his 5.64 ERA might be an illusion. And is still only 31 years old despite his lengthy career. (He turns 32 in December.)

 

How we word things can make all the difference in getting our point across. " He's still only 32 " sounds much better than " He's already on the wrong side of 30. "

[moonslav59]

How do you allocate the blame pie for the pitching woes?

 

10% Dave Bush

25% Chaim Bloom

25% John Henry's Checkbook

30% COVID and injuries

10% SSS

 

I don't like assigning "blame" to Henry for his spending or lack of it, because he is spending more than just about everyone, even when he he requires a reset, but I do think not spending on anyone but Peres and dealing Price due to money was a major part. Here is goes, but I'm putting an asterisk next to Henry:

 

50% Henry* (budget issues)

40% Injuries and COVID

9% Bush

1% Bloom

[moonslav59]

80% Bloom

20% Injury

 

Bloom didn't decide on the budget.

 

Perez did pretty well for what he paid him.

[mvp 78]

I don't like assigning "blame" to Henry for his spending or lack of it, because he is spending more than just about everyone, even when he he requires a reset, but I do think not spending on anyone but Peres and dealing Price due to money was a major part. Here is goes, but I'm putting an asterisk next to Henry:

 

50% Henry* (budget issues)

40% Injuries and COVID

9% Bush

1% Bloom

 

To me, you can asses blame without assessing wrongdoing.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, you can asses blame without assessing wrongdoing.

 

Maybe call it 'responsibility'.

[moonslav59]

To me, you can asses blame without assessing wrongdoing.

 

If Bloom was not allowed to spend money and was told to dump Price's salary, how can he be blamed for much of anything.

 

I guess, if you don't believe in my first two premises, then it's reasonable, but I think Bloom did a pretty good job signing Perez. I didn't so, at the time, but he pitched well for what we were allowed to pay.

 

If a ball is hit to a SS, and it hits a pebble and bounces over his head, is he to blame?

 

Bell, is he "responsible?"

 

I kinda think you have to do something wrong or neglect doing something right to get any blame.