A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

EHern is a decent , versatile player with a some right handed power that should play well at Fenway. I think he was a nice acquisition and will be useful. However, I cannot accept the idea that he is a better center fielder than JBJ , the analytics notwithstanding. I just don't see that.

 

How can anyone "see it?"

 

We don't watch Dodger baseball wire-to-wire.

 

I'm going off the notion that JBJ has declined, and I think there is ample evidence to show he has, despite a 55 game blip upwards, last year.

 

I'm also going off a 1200 inning sample size of EHern in CF, which surely can be doubted and criticized.

 

My position is based on the last 3 years' trend and the fact that JBJ turns 31, soon and EHern is 29.

 

I'm never going to say EHern is clearly a much better defender in CF than JBJ, at this moment in time, but his defensive metrics show him better, his OPS+ is better over the last 3 years, and his bWAR per 650 PAs is better over the last 3 years. I think the burden of proof lies with the JBJ supporters.

 

We've all watched JBJ play great D for many years. We've watched flashes of a great bat that have basically kept his overall offensive numbers near average or even above for extended times, but he's not getting better, whereas EHern seems to be.

[moonslav59]

I think it helps if you remember the analytics measure accomplishments, not ability. If Bradley got to fewer flyballs because Betts was already in position to take them, it did not help his analytics. It also did not mean JBJ was not going to get to them with a lesser RF out there...

 

Then, Betts hurt EHern's numbers in LA, last year, right?

[notin]

Then, Betts hurt EHern's numbers in LA, last year, right?

 

Maybe. Hernandez had a negative UZR/150 in CF for the first time in his career. Of course, playing only 20 innings out there probably also did not help.

 

That he has never played more than 372 innings in a season in CF is a bigger factor for me. Makes his metrics suspect...

[moonslav59]

OK, now let's look at 2021 projections, which bake in all that history.

 

Kike

Depth Charts 427 PA/0.9 WAR

Steamer 405/1.3

ZiPS 436/0.6

Avg 423/.93

Per 650 PA 1.44

 

JBJ

Depth Charts 553 PA/1.4 WAR

Steamer 504/1.1

ZiPS 525/1.5

Avg 527/1.33

Per 650 PA 1.64

 

Based on projections, JBJ at 12/2 is the better deal.

 

I have never used these projection sites in any form or manner.

 

I'm not saying they are useless, but I can't see how they project better numbers from JBJ, based on the last 2-3 years. Maybe, they put too much emphasis on last year's very short season.

 

JBJ put up some nice numbers in 55 games and 217 PAs, last year. We've seen those numbers or better in several 55 game sample sizes within almost every season he's had with the Sox, but we've also seen longer game sample sizes of horrific offensive numbers and occasional defensive ups and downs- at least by the metrics.

 

.814 in his last 217 PAs

.727 in his previous 1643 PAs

 

At age 31, which number do you think he will be in 2021?

 

+5.5 UZR/150 (-2 DRS) in 471 innings in 2020

or

-1.8 UZR/150 (+5 DRS) in 1247 innings in 2019?

 

Kike has a decent .737 OPS since 2018. It was .722 the previous 3 years. While he's had some highs (.836 in 2015 and .806 in 2018) and lows (.607 in 2016 and .680 in 2020) I still view him as being more consistent.

 

I do worry about the fact that he has never had more than 462 PAs or 145 games, and he's never played CF FT for a whole season.

 

It's not a clear choice, all things being even, on who I would want to play FT CF for the Sox from 2021-2022, but Kike offers more flexibility and upside due to his age (or less of a chance of a significant down slide).

[moonslav59]

Maybe. Hernandez had a negative UZR/150 in CF for the first time in his career. Of course, playing only 20 innings out there probably also did not help.

 

That he has never played more than 372 innings in a season in CF is a bigger factor for me. Makes his metrics suspect...

 

That's the big what if, and only 1200 career innings.

 

I guess I just see a bigger slide in JBJ's defense than others have seen.

 

Also, the question I answered was that I'd prefer EHern at $14M/1 over JBJ's suggested $12M/2 number and it has morphed into who has been and is a better FT CF'er going forward.

 

Who knows what JBJ will sign for?

 

I can see how wanting JBJ as our FT CF'er over EHern makes sense, but I still think EHern will be better, and since he can play 2B, our other non pitching big need area, I'd take EHern.

[moonslav59]

OK, now let's look at 2021 projections, which bake in all that history.

 

Kike

Depth Charts 427 PA/0.9 WAR

Steamer 405/1.3

ZiPS 436/0.6

Avg 423/.93

Per 650 PA 1.44

 

JBJ

Depth Charts 553 PA/1.4 WAR

Steamer 504/1.1

ZiPS 525/1.5

Avg 527/1.33

Per 650 PA 1.64

 

Based on projections, JBJ at 12/2 is the better deal.

 

What has their WAR per PA been over the last 3 years?

 

I provided BR's WAR per 650 and EHern has been better. Do you have fangraph's numbers, or is it just WAR/gm?

[moonslav59]

I did the fangraph's math:

 

fWAR per PA

 

2019-2020

JBJ 2.4 per 650 PAs (2.9/784)

EH 1.2 per 650 (1.1/608)

 

2017-2018

JBJ 3.0 per 650 (5.0/1076)

EH 3.7 per 650 (4.6/804)

 

2015-2016

JBJ 5.3 (7.2/891)

EH 2.1 (1.5/462)

 

Another time period breakdown:

 

2018-2020

JBJ 2.8 (5.7/1319)

EH 2.6 (4.3/1070)

 

2015-2017

JBJ 4.7 (10.4/1432)

EH 2.3 (2.9/804)

 

Fangraphs shows JBJ has been better per 650, but the last 3 years combined are very close.

 

bWAR has EHern better, recently.

 

[moonslav59]

If you had to choose from just these two line-up options, which would you choose?

 

A.

1. Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe-Cordero LF platoon

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Arroyo 2B

 

B.

1. Hernandez 2B

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Cordero CF

 

Who else could lead off?

 

Cordero?

Bogey?

Verdugo?

 

 

[notin]

Verdugo

[jacksonianmarch]

Verdugo becomes the RFer for a long time this year. RF in Fenway is harder than CF. Put him there, bat him lead off and leave him alone.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo becomes the RFer for a long time this year. RF in Fenway is harder than CF. Put him there, bat him lead off and leave him alone.

 

That's what I have felt all along.

 

EHern or Cordero in CF.

[notin]

That's what I have felt all along.

 

EHern or Cordero in CF.

 

Bradley in CF. Verdugo in RF. Cordero/Renfroe in LF...

[moonslav59]

Bradley in CF. Verdugo in RF. Cordero/Renfroe in LF...

 

We might as well get Odorizzi, too, then.

[notin]

We might as well get Odorizzi, too, then.

 

Or Porcello...

[oldtimer]

If you had to choose from just these two line-up options, which would you choose?

 

A.

1. Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe-Cordero LF platoon

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Arroyo 2B

 

B.

1. Hernandez 2B

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Cordero CF

 

Who else could lead off?

 

Cordero?

Bogey?

Verdugo?

 

 

 

I would take A as a better starting lineup and maybe platoon Gonsales at 1st if Dalbec shows weakness. That makes 2nd base iffy but Arroyo is still worth a shot.

 

Verdugo has shown he can handle leadoff.

[Kimmi]

All the projections have the Yankees at least 10 games better than us, which is realistic.

 

Thankfully, this will mean nothing once we're in the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

Kiké definitely needs to contribute in a substantial way to earn that contract. His WRC+ needs to be at 100 or better. Otherwise, it just seems like a waste of money.

 

Versatility is worth something.

[Kimmi]

I would much rather have JBJ at 12/2 than Kike at 14/2, and I'm not really down on Kike. I just can't see any way he's a better player, WAR-wise, than JBJ.

 

I agree with this. I think Kike's versatility has a lot to do with us signing him instead of JBJ, along with the fact that JBJ's asking price probably remains too high.

[Kimmi]

Verdugo becomes the RFer for a long time this year. RF in Fenway is harder than CF. Put him there, bat him lead off and leave him alone.

 

Something we agree on.

[Kimmi]

If you had to choose from just these two line-up options, which would you choose?

 

A.

1. Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe-Cordero LF platoon

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Arroyo 2B

 

B.

1. Hernandez 2B

2. Verdugo RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Cordero CF

 

Who else could lead off?

 

Cordero?

Bogey?

Verdugo?

 

 

With all due respect, I can't get past Hernandez batting leadoff. And Devers should not bat 3rd.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thankfully, this will mean nothing once we're in the playoffs.

 

Happy that you’re excited for the season. I am too. I think you’re the only one who thinks this Sox team is playoff bound, but everyone starts 0-0. Stranger things have happened. But please don’t disappear when the Sox tank. It’s standard board etiquette to pull up old predictions and rub them in our faces. Do be around for that!

[jacksonianmarch]

The standard now is to have your best hitters bat as many times as possible. There’s no more “placing” hitters in the lineup. So, this is what I’d go for

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogaerts SS

3. Devers 3B

4. Martinez DH

5. Renfroe LF

6. Vazquez C

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Cordero CF

9. Hernandez 2b

[Bellhorn04]

We've all watched JBJ play great D for many years. We've watched flashes of a great bat that have basically kept his overall offensive numbers near average or even above for extended times, but he's not getting better, whereas EHern seems to be.

 

Kike's OPS+ for last 4 seasons:

 

92

117

87

83

 

Doesn't really suggest he's getting better.

[Monster24]

I would love to see Verdugo leading off playing RF for next several years.

Out of Verdugo,Renfroe ,Cordero ,Gonzalez and Hernandez Verdugo will probably be the only one playing every day so would rather off not move him in the field

Verdugo

Xander

Devers

JD

After that depends on who plays

[notin]

Kike's OPS+ for last 4 seasons:

 

92

117

87

83

 

Doesn't really suggest he's getting better.

 

In those same season’s Bradley’s OPS+‘s are 89, 90, 92, 118. So how much of an improvement is Hernandez over Bradley?

 

They’re similar hitters, as Bradley’s OPS+ of 94 in that timeframe is a bit under EHern’s 98. But like with CF defense, Bradley’s numbers come as a full time regular and not a sporadic part timer...

[moonslav59]

I would take A as a better starting lineup and maybe platoon Gonsales at 1st if Dalbec shows weakness. That makes 2nd base iffy but Arroyo is still worth a shot.

 

Verdugo has shown he can handle leadoff.

 

Agree, and it's a better defensive alignment.

[moonslav59]

The trend seems to be to put one of your best hitters up first, unless they are very slow.

 

I agree that Verdugo is a better choice than EHern.

 

Plus, EH's OBP is not as good as I thought. His power drives his OPS.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boras must be negotiating an acceptable offer for JBJ somewhere. I don't think Bradley misread the market, although maybe Boras did.

 

Springer signed for $150 million, so does everyone really think he's worth three times more than Jackie? WAR 2016-2020: Springer 21.3, Bradley 15.4. Both were also postseason MVPs.

 

If, indeed, JBJ is only worth 33% of George's value for the next half decade... is it really that unreasonable that Boras is asking for $50 Mil?

[Bellhorn04]

Boras must be negotiating an acceptable offer for JBJ somewhere. I don't think Bradley misread the market, although maybe Boras did.

 

Springer signed for $150 million, so does everyone really think he's worth three times more than Jackie? WAR 2016-2020: Springer 21.3, Bradley 15.4. Both were also postseason MVPs.

 

If, indeed, JBJ is only worth 33% of George's value for the next half decade... is it really that unreasonable that Boras is asking for $50 Mil?

 

Jackie's market price is set more by a guy like Pillar.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jackie's market price is set more by a guy like Pillar.

 

JBJ was the consensus second-best centerfielder in this winter's free agency... but that was only from talking heads and typing fingers in the industry (not fan forums).