A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[kenmeister]

Cannot force him to sign.

 

And there are other closers still out there. Keone Kela, for example. Other available free agents with closing experience include Falmouth native Steve Cishek, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy, Dave Robertson, Sergio Romo, Hector Rondon, Trevor Rosenthal, Joakim Soria, Brandon Workman, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee, Tony Watson and Justin Wilson.

 

Not all of them necessarily have good days ahead of them...

 

Obviously a lot of those are big names and there's no way they'll go unsigned into the season. But my goodness it's almost February.

[Bellhorn04]

There are several names there that do not excite me, including Melancon, Kennedy, McGee, Wilson, Watson, Robertson ad the oft-injured Doolittle.

 

Why not Melancon - price tag?

[notin]

Why not Melancon - price tag?

 

Not a fan of the retreads. His one year on Boston was far and away the worst of his career, but it was only one season. He might work out, but I prefer a lot of the other options over him...

[moonslav59]

Last year there were 3 from one division

 

LOL. A hundred teams made the playoffs, last year.

 

When was the last time both WC teams came from the same division?

 

Actually, fairly often...

 

2017 NL West (AZ & COL)

2016 AL East (TOR & Yes! BAL!)

2015 NL Central (PIT & Cubs)

2013 NL Central (PIT & CIN)

[mvp 78]

Not a fan of the retreads. His one year on Boston was far and away the worst of his career, but it was only one season. He might work out, but I prefer a lot of the other options over him...

 

What if he was just the 7th inning guy?

 

Melancon - 7

Ottavino - 8

Barnes - 9

 

You can flip flop Ottavino and Barnes based on matchups. Maybe even DHern steps up and becomes a force and takes over in the 8th or 9th?

[moonslav59]

With winter moves not finished, here is where we currently rank in projected AL team WAR:

 

51.3 NYY

42.9 TOR

41.2 HOU

40.4 MN

38.4 CWS

38.4 LAA

37.0 BOS

36.7 OAK

34.0 TBR

 

5 teams make the playoffs, normally, and we are ranked 7th- just 1.4 from LAA and 2.5 from CWS.

 

If we sign Colome, that will close the gap a bit. If we also sign Schoop or Pillar, we may tie or pass both. If we sign Odorizzi and Colome, we will likely be ranked 5th, assuming the other two teams do not add much.

[notin]

What if he was just the 7th inning guy?

 

Melancon - 7

Ottavino - 8

Barnes - 9

 

You can flip flop Ottavino and Barnes based on matchups. Maybe even DHern steps up and becomes a force and takes over in the 8th or 9th?

 

Where does Melancon rank among the available options?

[moonslav59]

According to fangraph's projected 2021 team positional WAR, here are our rankings by position:

3. DH

5. Catcher

7. SS

8. 3B

9. CF (They have Verdugo in CF)

12. SP

13. RP

14. LF

16. 2B

17. RF (Renfroe in RF)

22. 1B

 

9th Pitching

10th Batting

 

[moonslav59]

Where does Melancon rank among the available options?

 

Well, I feel we need a closer, so I'd put Colome and Rosenthal way above him. I'm not sure who else I'd trust as a closer more than Ottavino/Barnes.

 

I think Melancon is one of the best set-up men still available, but I'm no expert on the guys you listed.

[notin]

Well, I feel we need a closer, so I'd put Colome and Rosenthal way above him. I'm not sure who else I'd trust as a closer more than Ottavino/Barnes.

 

I think Melancon is one of the best set-up men still available, but I'm no expert on the guys you listed.

 

I actually think if the Sox do sign a closer, Sergio Romo is on the radar. Bloom has signed him before and he pitched pretty well for the Rays. I think at this point both he and his fastball are just north of 60, but he actually pitched pretty well for Minnesota last season...

[moonslav59]

I actually think if the Sox do sign a closer, Sergio Romo is on the radar. Bloom has signed him before and he pitched pretty well for the Rays. I think at this point both he and his fastball are just north of 60, but he actually pitched pretty well for Minnesota last season...

 

I hope the fact the Brice is out of options isn't holding Bloom from further action!

 

LOL!

 

[moonslav59]

I actually think if the Sox do sign a closer, Sergio Romo is on the radar. Bloom has signed him before and he pitched pretty well for the Rays. I think at this point both he and his fastball are just north of 60, but he actually pitched pretty well for Minnesota last season...

 

I guess I'd be ok with signing someone like Romo, if we are trying to re-set and we need the money for Schoop or Pillar, but I'd rather have Colome, if we can just sign one from Colome, Pillar, Schoop or Moreland+Marisnick.

[moonslav59]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel Hernandez is a much better defender in CF that at 2B, so I'd prfer to see us sign a 2Bman over a CF'er.

 

So, do we go over the tax line to sign Kolten Wong or maybe stay under by signing Schoop?

 

Or, do we sign Colome and just let 2B and CF ride? (Maybe add Marisnick for very cheap)

 

Or, do we sign Pillar and go with Hernandez at 2B?

 

I'm not sure we can squeeze Moreland into this equation, unless we are okay going over the line.

 

Anyway, to me, our biggest 3 needs are Closer, CF or 2B and SP.

Edited January 30, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel Hernandez is a much better defender in CF that at 2B, so I'd prfer to see us sign a 2Bman over a CF'er.

 

So, do we go over the tax line to sign Kolten Wong or maybe stay under by signing Schoop?

 

Or, do we sign Colome and just let 2B and CF ride? (Maybe add Marisnick for very cheap)

 

Or, do we sign Pillar and go with Hernandez at 2B?

 

I'm not sure we can squeeze Moreland into this equation, unless we are okay going over the line.

 

Anyway, to me, our biggest 3 needs are Closer, CF or 2B and SP.

 

If 2b isn’t Hernandez (which it is), I would imagine Chavis or Arroyo are next up.

 

Right now, soxprospects.com lists Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. If Bloom adds another OF, it could be someone like Josh Reddick to platoon with Renfroe in right field...

[moonslav59]

If 2b isn’t Hernandez (which it is), I would imagine Chavis or Arroyo are next up.

 

Right now, soxprospects.com lists Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. If Bloom adds another OF, it could be someone like Josh Reddick to platoon with Renfroe in right field...

 

I know that is the apparent line-up, as of now, but instead of looking for a CF'er to align our OF to a better defensive make-up. We could sign Schoop and improve our defense at 2B, CF and RF (slightly LF, too) with one inexpensive signing by moving EHern to CF.

 

On defense:

 

2B: Schoop> EHern

CF: EHern> Verdugo

RF: Verdugo> Renfroe

LF: Renfroe/Beni platoon> FT Beni

 

(The LF platoon also improves our LF offense.)

 

We could still have EHern play 2B a few times, if needed, and maybe sign a cheap 5th OF'er like Marisnick.

 

How much more will Schoop cost vs Pillar?

[oldtimer]

I guess I'd be ok with signing someone like Romo, if we are trying to re-set and we need the money for Schoop or Pillar, but I'd rather have Colome, if we can just sign one from Colome, Pillar, Schoop or Moreland+Marisnick.

 

I don't see us having a legitimate chance of going deep into the playoffs even if we are so fortunate to make them by winning 87 to 89 games. Under that assumption, I would definitely want to stay below the CBT and even leave some financial flexibility for a mid season move. Adding a single player won't change our chances to give us a significantly better chance. I believe Bloom expects to bring Downs up during the season so doesn't want to invest in second base, except for a place holder.

[Larry Cook]

Talk of us bringing workman back.

[moonslav59]

I don't see us having a legitimate chance of going deep into the playoffs even if we are so fortunate to make them by winning 87 to 89 games. Under that assumption, I would definitely want to stay below the CBT and even leave some financial flexibility for a mid season move. Adding a single player won't change our chances to give us a significantly better chance. I believe Bloom expects to bring Downs up during the season so doesn't want to invest in second base, except for a place holder.

 

I can see not spending large at 2B, but if we can get Schoop on a 1 year deal, I like the idea of having EHern in CF.

 

I'd guess Down is ready in 2022.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

The Angels signed Kurt Suzuki this offseason, and with a catching corps of Suzuki, Max Stassi, and Anthony Bemboom, adding an upper-tier backstop “would be a luxury and not a necessity” for the team, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes. However, the Halos have at least checked in on some prominent catchers, including Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox. No deal appears to be close, as the Sox naturally want quite a lot for Vazquez and “there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him” whatsoever.

[moonslav59]

I doubt we trade Vaz.

[notin]

I doubt we trade Vaz.

 

Agreed.

 

Now like I said, I’d trade 2 years of Vaz for 6 years of Marsh. But I have a feeling Bloom’s demands are similar, and that’s why no deal gets done...

[moonslav59]

If 2b isn’t Hernandez (which it is), I would imagine Chavis or Arroyo are next up.

 

Right now, soxprospects.com lists Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. If Bloom adds another OF, it could be someone like Josh Reddick to platoon with Renfroe in right field...

 

I can see why many think this is the best way to place what we have, now, and it's hard to argue against this plan:

 

2B: EHern

LF: Beni

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

 

But, as I see it, 3 of these four players will be playing a position they are not best at, defensively. That alone screams for an adjustment- like signing a 2Bman and fixing all the issues. Renroe is better in LF, Verdugo in RF and EHern in CF. Plus, offensively, a Beni-Renfroe platoon looks very good, on paper. The problem, now is that Beni vs LHPs and Renfroe vs RHPs are both probably better hitters than Arroyo or Chavis at 2B, so the choice is made to reduce defensive effectiveness to gain on offense (Beni/Renfroe>Arroyo/Chavis).

 

I may be one of the few, here, that would prefer improving our defense at 3-4 positions by signing Schoop. I might be the only one saying I'd prefer Arroyo at 2B than Beni and Renfroe playing FT.

 

Defense only:

 

2B: Arroyo > EHern

LF: Beni/Renfroe platoon> Beni alone

CF: EHern > Verdugo

RF: Verdugo> Renfroe

 

It's not often, one choice improves 4 positions defensively, but this may be one. By acquiring Schoop, we not only improve 4 positions, defensively, we don't lose any ground on offense.

 

In fact, we improve our offense and defense!

 

Career Splits:

 

vs RHP

.821 Beni

.754 Schoop

.717 Renfroe

 

vs LHP

.912 Renfroe

.726 Schoop (.827 the last 4 yrs)

.691 Beni

 

Arroyo: .678 v R/.597 v L

Chavis: .740 v R/.699 v L

 

Actually, Chavis has a better career split vs RHPs than Renfroe (.740>.717) and vs LHPs than Beni (.699>.691), but he does NOT improve the defense at 2B like Arroyo would.

 

Note: Kolten Wong career splits:

.736 v RHP

.652 v LHP

 

2017-2020 v RHP

.773 Wong

.759 Schoop

 

2017-2020 v LHP

.827 Schoop

.687 Wong

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I liked Schoop as a 2b option but I think - maybe naively- that was what Hernandez was signed for.

 

If the actual plan was to put him in CF, Bloom is more clever than I thought...

[notin]

I can see why many think this is the best way to place what we have, now, and it's hard to argue against this plan:

 

2B: EHern

LF: Beni

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

 

But, as I see it, 3 of these four players will be playing a position they are not best at, defensively. That alone screams for an adjustment- like signing a 2Bman and fixing all the issues. Renroe is better in LF, Verdugo in RF and EHern in CF. Plus, offensively, a Beni-Renfroe platoon looks very good, on paper. The problem, now is that Beni vs LHPs and Renfroe vs RHPs are both probably better hitters than Arroyo or Chavis at 2B, so the choice is made to reduce defensive effectiveness to gain on offense (Beni/Renfroe>Arroyo/Chavis).

 

I may be one of the few, here, that would prefer improving our defense at 3-4 positions by signing Schoop. I might be the only one saying I'd prefer Arroyo at 2B than Beni and Renfroe playing FT.

 

Defense only:

 

2B: Arroyo > EHern

LF: Beni/Renfroe platoon> Beni alone

CF: EHern > Verdugo

RF: Verdugo> Renfroe

 

It's not often, one choice improves 4 positions defensively, but this may be one. By acquiring Schoop, we not only improve 4 positions, defensively, we don't lose any ground on offense.

 

In fact, we improve our offense and defense!

 

Career Splits:

 

vs RHP

.821 Beni

.754 Schoop

.717 Renfroe

 

vs LHP

.912 Renfroe

.726 Schoop

.691 Beni

 

Arroyo: .678 v R/.597 v L

Chavis: .740 v R/.699 v L

 

Actually, Chavis has a better career split vs RHPs than Renfroe (.740>.717) and vs LHPs than Beni (.699>.691), but he does NOT improve the defense at 2B like Arroyo would.

 

 

 

If the idea is for cheap contributors, primarily by emphasizing defense, other options would be better than Schoop. Addison Russell is the best all around option, but he is not likely, as he has more baggage than an airport carousel. Hanser Alberto has good defensive numbers and is likely dirt cheap. But unlike Schoop, he won’t hit much...

[notin]

I can see why many think this is the best way to place what we have, now, and it's hard to argue against this plan:

 

2B: EHern

LF: Beni

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

 

But, as I see it, 3 of these four players will be playing a position they are not best at, defensively. That alone screams for an adjustment- like signing a 2Bman and fixing all the issues. Renroe is better in LF, Verdugo in RF and EHern in CF. Plus, offensively, a Beni-Renfroe platoon looks very good, on paper. The problem, now is that Beni vs LHPs and Renfroe vs RHPs are both probably better hitters than Arroyo or Chavis at 2B, so the choice is made to reduce defensive effectiveness to gain on offense (Beni/Renfroe>Arroyo/Chavis).

 

I may be one of the few, here, that would prefer improving our defense at 3-4 positions by signing Schoop. I might be the only one saying I'd prefer Arroyo at 2B than Beni and Renfroe playing FT.

 

Defense only:

 

2B: Arroyo > EHern

LF: Beni/Renfroe platoon> Beni alone

CF: EHern > Verdugo

RF: Verdugo> Renfroe

 

It's not often, one choice improves 4 positions defensively, but this may be one. By acquiring Schoop, we not only improve 4 positions, defensively, we don't lose any ground on offense.

 

In fact, we improve our offense and defense!

 

Career Splits:

 

vs RHP

.821 Beni

.754 Schoop

.717 Renfroe

 

vs LHP

.912 Renfroe

.726 Schoop (.827 the last 4 yrs)

.691 Beni

 

Arroyo: .678 v R/.597 v L

Chavis: .740 v R/.699 v L

 

Actually, Chavis has a better career split vs RHPs than Renfroe (.740>.717) and vs LHPs than Beni (.699>.691), but he does NOT improve the defense at 2B like Arroyo would.

 

Note: Kolten Wong career splits:

.736 v RHP

.652 v LHP

 

2017-2020 v RHP

.773 Wong

.759 Schoop

 

2017-2020 v LHP

.827 Schoop

.687 Wong

 

 

Now Adam Frazier is a readily available option for 2b. He’s average been an above average defender at 2b the last three seasons, hits well, rarely strikes out, has OF experience (if he needs to be moved at some point to accommodate Downs), makes only $4.5 mill with one arb left, and is currently on a team whose GM drafted the Sox most expendable player (Chavis) in the first round.

 

Chavis for Frazier?

[moonslav59]

If the idea is for cheap contributors, primarily by emphasizing defense, other options would be better than Schoop. Addison Russell is the best all around option, but he is not likely, as he has more baggage than an airport carousel. Hanser Alberto has good defensive numbers and is likely dirt cheap. But unlike Schoop, he won’t hit much...

 

Yes, we could just add a defensive 2Bman, but then why not just call Arauz up?

 

My idea was not all about defense, but I do think Schoop is better on defense at 2B than EHern.

 

Signing Schoop improves the offense, but more importantly, it improves our defense at 3-4 positions at once.

 

UZR/150 at 2B 2017-2020

6.8 Wong

2.5 Jed Lowrie

-1.8 Schoop

-4.8 M Gonzalez

-6.4 J Villar

-7.6 E Hern

-14.5 G Torres (I just had to stick his name in here)

 

JUST SIGN SCHOOP & COLOME and call it a winter!!

[notin]

Or sign Colome and swing a deal for Adam Frazier?

[moonslav59]

Or sign Colome and swing a deal for Adam Frazier?

 

Makes sense, too. Maybe try to get Brault, too.

 

A three-way with the Angels might get us Stallings, Frazier and Brault (or Brubaker) with Vaz going to LA and prospects going from LA to PIT.

[notin]

Makes sense, too. Maybe try to get Brault, too.

 

A three-way with the Angels might get us Stallings, Frazier and Brault (or Brubaker) with Vaz going to LA and prospects going from LA to PIT.

 

not very likely.

 

If Bloom was able to get decent enough prospects out of the Angels, he would probably just hold on to them rather than flip them for 3 middling players.

 

As it is, it's not very likely he deals any of his prospects with any value for anyone. At least not yet. Chavis is one guy who has value I could see the Sox moving, since he really does not fit in anywhere. But maybe there is a plan for him? Maybe he gets first shot at 2B?

 

So far the closest thing to a prospect Bloom has dealt was Chatham, who was sent to the team run by the GM that drafted him and probably only done so to free up a spot on the 40 man roster...

[moonslav59]

not very likely.

 

If Bloom was able to get decent enough prospects out of the Angels, he would probably just hold on to them rather than flip them for 3 middling players.

 

As it is, it's not very likely he deals any of his prospects with any value for anyone. At least not yet. Chavis is one guy who has value I could see the Sox moving, since he really does not fit in anywhere. But maybe there is a plan for him? Maybe he gets first shot at 2B?

 

So far the closest thing to a prospect Bloom has dealt was Chatham, who was sent to the team run by the GM that drafted him and probably only done so to free up a spot on the 40 man roster...

 

Okay, here's how I see it. Vaz has two years of team control, but Stallings, who I think is better than "middling" has 4 years at a much lower cost. Brault has 3 years and Frazier 2 years. That's 9 years for 2. All are MLB players not hopes and prayers prospects. If we could get Brubaker and his 5 years, instead of Brault's 3, it would be even better.

 

On top of this, I don't like how Vaz handles our pitching staff, but I might be the only one thinking this.

 

I'd do this deal in a heartbeat.