A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I agree with everything except for the trading for a big name SP'er. I don't think that happens until 2022 or 2023.

 

I'm all for looking more longterm, but I think Sox management wants to give the impression we can compete in 2021 as we build up for bigger and better things for 2022 and beyond.

 

If we can trade for a pitcher with 3+ years of control, it's worth looking into.

 

It won't be easy.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox would do better to find more consistent starters. Kluber and Hill both could end up not pitching after April.

 

I guess it fits in with the health questions already surrounding the Sox staff (Sale, ERod, Eovaldi).

 

We may look for 1 year deals like these guys or other more durable but not spectacular pitchers to bridge us to the time frame you are talking about: 2022 or 2023 and beyond.

[mvp 78]

I'm all for looking more longterm, but I think Sox management wants to give the impression we can compete in 2021 as we build up for bigger and better things for 2022 and beyond.

 

If we can trade for a pitcher with 3+ years of control, it's worth looking into.

 

It won't be easy.

 

Of course they want to give the impression that they will compete in 2021. A marketing strategy of "hey, we're just going to look like 2020, but maybe win a few more games" isn't going to sit well with a fanbase.

[mvp 78]

We may look for 1 year deals like these guys or other more durable but not spectacular pitchers to bridge us to the time frame you are talking about: 2022 or 2023 and beyond.

 

If a durable arm is available now, it doesn't make much sense to only rely on them for 1 year. You always need 4th and 5th starters. These are guys you can move at the deadline as well. If they only offer 1 year deals, they may be behind other bidders.

[moonslav59]

Of course they want to give the impression that they will compete in 2021. A marketing strategy of "hey, we're just going to look like 2020, but maybe win a few more games" isn't going to sit well with a fanbase.

 

Of course, they don't verbalize their strategy, but if we acquire one big name and a 2-3 decent role players, we actually can be competitors for a wild card slot in 2021.

 

Our eyes would still be on not making any major deals that may hurt our chances in 2022 or 2023 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

If a durable arm is available now, it doesn't make much sense to only rely on them for 1 year. You always need 4th and 5th starters. These are guys you can move at the deadline as well. If they only offer 1 year deals, they may be behind other bidders.

 

I mentioned 1 year deals that would bridge us to the hopeful return of Sale and maybe even ERod & Eovaldi's better chances at doing well in 2022 more than 2021.

 

Then, as you suggested, we make the big splash SP'er addition.

 

Yes, it wouldn't hurt to add a durable SP'er, now, that could help in 2022 and maybe beyond, but that could be something we do in 2022, as well.

 

I'm not seeing many capable and durable SP'ers on the market, right now, and I'm not big on building a winning rotation by seeking out good 5th starters.

[mvp 78]

Of course, they don't verbalize their strategy, but if we acquire one big name and a 2-3 decent role players, we actually can be competitors for a wild card slot in 2021.

 

Our eyes would still be on not making any major deals that may hurt our chances in 2022 or 2023 and beyond.

 

I'm not sure they even need a big name. Just add 2 adequate starters and a few more professional relief arms. Can even go cheap at CF and 2b.

[mvp 78]

I mentioned 1 year deals that would bridge us to the hopeful return of Sale and maybe even ERod & Eovaldi's better chances at doing well in 2022 more than 2021.

 

Then, as you suggested, we make the big splash SP'er addition.

 

Yes, it wouldn't hurt to add a durable SP'er, now, that could help in 2022 and maybe beyond, but that could be something we do in 2022, as well.

 

I'm not seeing many capable and durable SP'ers on the market, right now, and I'm not big on building a winning rotation by seeking out good 5th starters.

 

I don't see any big splashes coming this offseason.

[notin]

I'm not sure they even need a big name. Just add 2 adequate starters and a few more professional relief arms. Can even go cheap at CF and 2b.

 

Go heavy on the bullpen!!

 

Bring in two from Hand, Bradley and Robles! Or all three. Shorten those games!

 

And do the Sox need two MLB starters? Right now, they have ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. That’s 4. They need a fifth guy to round out the rotation and then more Andriese types for depth...

[notin]

I don't see any big splashes coming this offseason.

 

Not even for PR?

 

A forum like this where we talk baseball 24-7 is really not for casual fans. We’re all addicts. Some of us know it.

 

And even here, we have baseball junkies questioning Bloom’s ability to build a team based on last season’s results. Another year is going to entrench the notion this team needs to spend $250 million to be successful and anything less is Henry being cheap. And THAT is the addicts thinking. Can you imagine Casual Fans? The type of people who get their insights from Gerry Callahan and Tony Masserotti?

[mvp 78]

Go heavy on the bullpen!!

 

Bring in two from Hand, Bradley and Robles! Or all three. Shorten those games!

 

And do the Sox need two MLB starters? Right now, they have ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. That’s 4. They need a fifth guy to round out the rotation and then more Andriese types for depth...

 

Houck won't be a starter for the whole year. They will manage his innings. Hard to count on ERod or Eovaldi for full seasons either.

[mvp 78]

Not even for PR?

 

A forum like this where we talk baseball 24-7 is really not for casual fans. We’re all addicts. Some of us know it.

 

And even here, we have baseball junkies questioning Bloom’s ability to build a team based on last season’s results. Another year is going to entrench the notion this team needs to spend $250 million to be successful and anything less is Henry being cheap. And THAT is the addicts thinking. Can you imagine Casual Fans? The type of people who get their insights from Gerry Callahan and Tony Masserotti?

 

No, not even for PR this year. The PR move was Cora.

 

Some of our baseball junkies are close to OD'ing IMO.

 

Casual fans aren't listening to sports radio.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure they even need a big name. Just add 2 adequate starters and a few more professional relief arms. Can even go cheap at CF and 2b.

 

I can't see us winning in 2022 or 2023 without adding an excellent SP'er to the rotation.

 

Counting on Sale, Eovaldi and ERod to hit the trifecta in any given year is a long shot.

 

Name 2 adequate starters: Odorizzi & Paxton/Walker/Lester?

 

I'm not sure they'd take short deals, and I'm not sure I want them on long deals.

[moonslav59]

I don't see any big splashes coming this offseason.

 

I agree. My biggest splash, this year, might be Taillon, but he only has 2 more years of control.

[mvp 78]

I can't see us winning in 2022 or 2023 without adding an excellent SP'er to the rotation.

 

Counting on Sale, Eovaldi and ERod to hit the trifecta in any given year is a long shot.

 

Name 2 adequate starters: Odorizzi & Paxton/Walker/Lester?

 

I'm not sure they'd take short deals, and I'm not sure I want them on long deals.

 

I could see Paxton/Walker/Lester all taking 1 year deals. I wouldn't want those guys longer than 2 years either.

[notin]

I can't see us winning in 2022 or 2023 without adding an excellent SP'er to the rotation.

 

Counting on Sale, Eovaldi and ERod to hit the trifecta in any given year is a long shot.

 

Name 2 adequate starters: Odorizzi & Paxton/Walker/Lester?

 

I'm not sure they'd take short deals, and I'm not sure I want them on long deals.

 

Jon Lester is going to turn 37 in a few weeks. At this point, he is well aware no one is giving him 3 years, and he might even struggle to get 2.

 

Odirizzi, Paxton and Walker are all upgrades for the Sox, and the oldest one is Paxton, who turned 32 a couple weeks back. All of them will be looking for long deals, but might take short ones if the market is weak (which it has not been to date).

 

One thng for certain, pitchers looking for one year pillow contracts to rebuild value rarely choose Boston, as we have two distinct disadvantages - small ballpark and a league with a DH...

[mvp 78]

I agree. My biggest splash, this year, might be Taillon, but he only has 2 more years of control.

 

Sox could easily extend them if they wanted. They may try to extend ERod if he is doing well in July.

[Bellhorn04]

Odirizzi, Paxton and Walker are all upgrades for the Sox, and the oldest one is Paxton, who turned 32 a couple weeks back. All of them will be looking for long deals, but might take short ones if the market is weak (which it has not been to date).

 

Paxton's health is about as reliable as Eovaldi's. Rather have Porcello.

[moonslav59]

Paxton's health is about as reliable as Eovaldi's. Rather have Porcello.

 

Porcello is durable but just not all that good.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello is durable but just not all that good.

 

Free agent starters who are good, durable, and affordable are hard to come by.

[moonslav59]

Free agent starters who are good, durable, and affordable are hard to come by.

 

True. For one year deals, signing injury prone SP'ers is not a big gamble. especially when our chances of winning a ring in 2021 are pretty slim.

[mvp 78]

Paxton's health is about as reliable as Eovaldi's. Rather have Porcello.

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

True. For one year deals, signing injury prone SP'ers is not a big gamble. especially when our chances of winning a ring in 2021 are pretty slim.

 

Signing a durable guy would reduce the workload on the rest of the staff. Signing a guy who breaks down in the Spring only exacerbates the problem.

[moonslav59]

Signing a durable guy would reduce the workload on the rest of the staff. Signing a guy who breaks down in the Spring only exacerbates the problem.

 

Of course I prefer a durable pitcher, but if he's not very good, he won't take us any farther in 2021 than maybe the wild card slot we already have a shot at.

 

Signing a guy like Paxton, gives us a better chance at going farther in in 2021 than Porcello would, depending on his health.

 

To be honest, I don't want Paxton or Porcello, unless they are on 1 year deals. It's a coin toss. (Lester on a 1 year deal might be better than both.)

 

I'd be okay with signing Odorizzi, but I'm afraid he may cost too much and get too many years. He's not really a #5 starter, so signing him doesn't go against my build a rotation from the top or middle philosophy.

[mvp 78]

Of course I prefer a durable pitcher, but if he's not very good, he won't take us any farther in 2021 than maybe the wild card slot we already have a shot at.

 

Signing a guy like Paxton, gives us a better chance at going farther in in 2021 than Porcello would, depending on his health.

 

To be honest, I don't want Paxton or Porcello, unless they are on 1 year deals. It's a coin toss. (Lester on a 1 year deal might be better than both.)

 

I'd be okay with signing Odorizzi, but I'm afraid he may cost too much and get too many years. He's not really a #5 starter, so signing him doesn't go against my build a rotation from the top or middle philosophy.

 

Does Paxton make them better than a WC contender? Not in my opinion.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not a big Bauer fan, but I'll never see the logic in refusing to sign a great player because the team stinks. I also don't agree with those who think it's worthless to sign a great player longterm -- like for five years -- because he may not be around when the window of contention finally reopens. Talent opens windows.

 

The 1997 Red Sox had a losing record and finished in fourth place, 20 games out of first place. And then -- unbelievably -- they traded for the best pitcher in baseball: Pedro. What were they thinking? Possibly that he'd be a huge factor in making them a contender again. The next season they won 92 games, made the playoffs, and never looked back.

[vegasbob]

A small part of the FO thinking on 2021 is likely including the premise that it will be a short (100-120+- games) , starting in May . This gives the RS a chance to get Chris Sale back into the rotation before it is a totally lost season. The flip side is that there will be no certainty that Erod's heart infection will result in no dimunition of endurance or energy, and that no one else among pitchers gets sick going into ST whenever that does occur.

 

Overall though, history tells us that you need to start the year with 6 to7 available starters between the MLB team and the AAA affiliate to be able to complete a full season.

[mvp 78]

I'm not a big Bauer fan, but I'll never see the logic in refusing to sign a great player because the team stinks. I also don't agree with those who think it's worthless to sign a great player longterm -- like for five years -- because he may not be around when the window of contention finally reopens. Talent opens windows.

 

The 1997 Red Sox had a losing record and finished in fourth place, 20 games out of first place. And then -- unbelievably -- they traded for the best pitcher in baseball: Pedro. What were they thinking? Possibly that he'd be a huge factor in making them a contender again. The next season they won 92 games, made the playoffs, and never looked back.

 

Where is this great player they are avoiding signing? Bauer?

[moonslav59]

Does Paxton make them better than a WC contender? Not in my opinion.

 

If healthy, I believe Paxton is better than Porcello, but likeI said, it's a toss-up. Neither would be a significant difference maker.

 

(BTW, Paxton did start 57 games from 2018-2019.)

Edited December 29, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Where is this great player they are avoiding signing? Bauer?

 

... and please don't say Springer.