A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Stop blaming the pandemic on Mookie not being in Boston. The second the Sox traded him, he was NEVER coming back.

 

I'm moreso blaming it for the Dodgers getting that crazy low 25.55 AAV.

 

Gerrit Cole's AAV is 10.45 mill higher than that!

[Kimmi]

I hope we are both still around when his contract ends.

 

My guess is he earns every cent (based on WAR value).

 

I am guessing that he earns every cent of the contract on the whole as well based off of his likely performance during the first half of the contract. The issue becomes the second half. Any contract that includes 12 years is not a great contract, IMO.

 

The other thing that I've been questioning about this contract is how much the Dodgers outbid themselves by. I have said many times that I am shocked that the Dodgers would offer such a huge contract during the pandemic and all its uncertainty.

[Kimmi]

25.55 for Mookie is virtually chump change, seriously. I feel a bit sick since I learned that he took basically less money than what was surely our opening offer of 300 million for 10 years.

 

Explain this to me please. How is Mookie getting less money? Do you mean per year? How does the deferred money work?

[Kimmi]

Stop blaming the pandemic on Mookie not being in Boston. The second the Sox traded him, he was NEVER coming back.

 

Truth.

[mvp 78]

Explain this to me please. How is Mookie getting less money? Do you mean per year? How does the deferred money work?

 

He gets less money up front. He'll get some of it paid after he retires. Clearly, he's not living paycheck to paycheck so I don't know if it really matters all that much if a portion is deferred. I believe the Sox were still paying Manny deferred money in 2020.

[mvp 78]

I'm moreso blaming it for the Dodgers getting that crazy low 25.55 AAV.

 

Gerrit Cole's AAV is 10.45 mill higher than that!

 

Sox could have gotten that if they offered it IMO. Staying put and not countering above 300M was dumb.

[notin]

Sox could have gotten that if they offered it IMO. Staying put and not countering above 300M was dumb.

 

Unless Betts only took it due to the unknown impact of the COVID outbreak...

[notin]

I'm moreso blaming it for the Dodgers getting that crazy low 25.55 AAV.

 

Gerrit Cole's AAV is 10.45 mill higher than that!

 

Technically the Sox had him for a lower AAV for 2020 prior to the trade. But let’s say the Sox did sign him for that amount, what’s the luxury tax impact of keeping him and Price?

[notin]

Stop blaming the pandemic on Mookie not being in Boston. The second the Sox traded him, he was NEVER coming back.

 

Whether he was coming back or not, it’s not unreasonable to think a looming pandemic that had already cancelled multiple sports season was not a factor in Betts’ decision to sign that extension ...

[notin]

Sox could have gotten that if they offered it IMO. Staying put and not countering above 300M was dumb.

 

Then Dombrowski needed to offer it rather than spending more money and a higher AAV on a couple of sore-armed pitchers...

[mvp 78]

Unless Betts only took it due to the unknown impact of the COVID outbreak...

 

We'll never know, but I don't think he would have.

[mvp 78]

Whether he was coming back or not, it’s not unreasonable to think a looming pandemic that had already cancelled multiple sports season was not a factor in Betts’ decision to sign that extension ...

 

The MLB was about to start. The virus looked like it was under control at that point. It's not unreasonable to think that Betts took an offer he would have accepted 6 months prior.

[mvp 78]

Then Dombrowski needed to offer it rather than spending more money and a higher AAV on a couple of sore-armed pitchers...

 

No s***. I wanted them to sign Mookie for more than what the Dodgers paid. They didn't want to.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/chaim-blooms-comments-why-red-sox-passed-blake-snell-are-telling?fbclid=IwAR1dw53nzrHKvhIQaNJtT8Lvqml7kTyqtEeqauhKOl_HnY3N0sAk7FFFq3o

 

This should give you some insight into Bloom’s thinking

[Bellhorn04]

Then Dombrowski needed to offer it rather than spending more money and a higher AAV on a couple of sore-armed pitchers...

 

Seems more likely Dombrowski wanted to offer him a lot more than $300 mill and Henry/Werner said no.

 

Dave has never been known to be a penny-pincher with contract offers to elite talents...

[notin]

Seems more likely Dombrowski wanted to offer him a lot more than $300 mill and Henry/Werner said no.

 

Dave has never been known to be a penny-pincher with contract offers to elite talents...

 

Also with non-elite talents, which lead to the situation I’m talking about...

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/chaim-blooms-comments-why-red-sox-passed-blake-snell-are-telling?fbclid=IwAR1dw53nzrHKvhIQaNJtT8Lvqml7kTyqtEeqauhKOl_HnY3N0sAk7FFFq3o

 

This should give you some insight into Bloom’s thinking

 

He's playing possum!

 

Seriously though, it seems like a little too much was being read into Bloom's comments there. Not being in an 'all-in' mode right now is not the same thing as punting on 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Odorizzi, Kluber, Sugano, Hand. Sox should sign them all, and may need them all to get back over .500.

[Bellhorn04]

Also with non-elite talents, which lead to the situation I’m talking about...

 

You keep trying to spin it back to the same thing - that DD's overspending prevented us from keeping Mookie.

 

The fact is that the Red Sox offered him $300 mill. I tend to think DD would have been in favor of offering more than that.

 

When you get into those price ranges, the owners generally make the call.

[mvp 78]

He's playing possum!

 

Seriously though, it seems like a little too much was being read into Bloom's comments there. Not being in an 'all-in' mode right now is not the same thing as punting on 2021.

 

And you aren't going to take this team from doormat to WS title in one year with this FA class and farm. It's going to be a slow and steady process.

 

Find the right core guys now and keep them around for a while. (I don't think that's Bauer)

[notin]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/chaim-blooms-comments-why-red-sox-passed-blake-snell-are-telling?fbclid=IwAR1dw53nzrHKvhIQaNJtT8Lvqml7kTyqtEeqauhKOl_HnY3N0sAk7FFFq3o

 

This should give you some insight into Bloom’s thinking

 

 

Not really. That’s just press talk. We all know when asked why he didn’t try to tip the Padres’ offer for Snell, the real answer is “because we couldn’t. Not with this farm!” It had nothing to do with future plans. Chaim Bloom (and Erick Neander) both know not only is there no guarantee Patino even approaches Snell in terms of ability, but with prospect attrition rates being what they are, there’s no guarantee any of the others even see Day One in Tampa.

 

But publicly admitting the farm sucks - even though everyone knows it - is counterproductive for Bloom...

[mvp 78]

Odorizzi, Kluber, Sugano, Hand. Sox should sign them all, and may need them all to get back over .500.

 

They can get over .500 just by fixing their bullpen and having a full season from ERod.

[mvp 78]

You keep trying to spin it back to the same thing - that DD's overspending prevented us from keeping Mookie.

 

The fact is that the Red Sox offered him $300 mill. I tend to think DD would have been in favor of offering more than that.

 

When you get into those price ranges, the owners generally make the call.

 

That's why they dumped DD. He wanted Betts. They didn't.

[notin]

You keep trying to spin it back to the same thing - that DD's overspending prevented us from keeping Mookie.

 

The fact is that the Red Sox offered him $300 mill. I tend to think DD would have been in favor of offering more than that.

 

When you get into those price ranges, the owners generally make the call.

 

 

And you seem to think Henry - who has an equally impressive track record for paying huge bills racked up by various GMs - suddenly decided enough was enough - but NOT do to any other deals already made. And NOT due to the existing budget. But rather, just because.

 

There was a time when Manny Ramirez’ deal looked rather ominous, too. Second largest deal in MLB history at the time. Did Henry balk them?

[notin]

That's why they dumped DD. He wanted Betts. They didn't.

 

I'm thinking not.

 

I think they dumped DD because he went all in to try and continue the success of 2018, and it did not work and left the team in a very questionable position...

[Bellhorn04]

And you seem to think Henry - who has an equally impressive track record for paying huge bills racked up by various GMs - suddenly decided enough was enough - but NOT do to any other deals already made. And NOT due to the existing budget. But rather, just because.

 

So why do think they made the $300 million offer to Mookie? Just for looks?

 

I've said many times that Henry has spent faithfully on the team. But the highest contract he's given out is Price's $217 million. Mookie's deal could have been 50-75% more than that. So that is definitely in new territory.

 

Also, Henry does have a history of drawing a line. In the infamous A-Rod negotiations, the Sox balked when the Players Union insisted on an adjustment that was only about $12 million, IIRC.

 

They let Pedro walk. Damon. J-Bay. And so on.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

So why do think they made the $300 million offer to Mookie? Just for looks?

 

I've said many times that Henry has spent faithfully on the team. But the highest contract he's given out is Price's $217 million. Mookie's deal could have been 50-75% more than that. So that is definitely in new territory.

 

Also, Henry does have a history of drawing a line. In the infamous A-Rod negotiations, the Sox balked when the Players Union insisted on an adjustment that was only about $12 million, IIRC.

 

They let Pedro walk. Damon. J-Bay. And so on.

 

I think there is a difference between not extending a 33yo Pedro Martinez vs a 26yo Betts.

 

Not to mention, Epstein liked to take advantage of draft pick compensation rules back then for his Type A free agents, particularity the rules that allowed you to gain 2 picks for losing a Type A but only lose one pick for signing another one. It allowed him to rebuild the farm system while staying competitive. None of that was in play with Betts.

 

The problem is, the contract Betts was seeking and eventually received was not exactly out of line for his market. He was one of the best players in the game, and other lesser players are making close to what he makes. Gerrit Cole? Bryce Harper? This was getting to be the cost of doing business. Betts' deal with LA was more in line with the value of recent deals than the one the Sox gave Manny Ramirez 20 years earlier. And one that Henry paid despite it being one to set market value rather than follow it.

 

And, do you really think committing over $200 million to Eovaldi and Sale (and over $42mill AAV) had no impact on whether or not the team had budget room for Betts?

[Bellhorn04]

I think there is a difference between not extending a 33yo Pedro Martinez vs a 26yo Betts.

 

Not to mention, Epstein liked to take advantage of draft pick compensation rules back then for his Type A free agents, particularity the rules that allowed you to gain 2 picks for losing a Type A but only lose one pick for signing another one. It allowed him to rebuild the farm system while staying competitive. None of that was in play with Betts.

 

The problem is, the contract Betts was seeking and eventually received was not exactly out of line for his market. He was one of the best players in the game, and other lesser players are making close to what he makes. Gerrit Cole? Bryce Harper? This was getting to be the cost of doing business. Betts' deal with LA was more in line with the value of recent deals than the one the Sox gave Manny Ramirez 20 years earlier. And one that Henry paid despite it being one to set market value rather than follow it.

 

And, do you really think committing over $200 million to Eovaldi and Sale (and over $42mill AAV) had no impact on whether or not the team had budget room for Betts?

 

I think we've already discussed the possibility that the offers to Eovaldi and Sale came after the failed offer to Mookie. It actually makes more sense that way.

[Bellhorn04]

The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts weren't done until March, 2019. It seems extremely likely that the reported $300 million offer to Betts, which occurred that same offseason, would have occurred well before that.

[notin]

I think we've already discussed the possibility that the offers to Eovaldi and Sale came after the failed offer to Mookie. It actually makes more sense that way.

 

Whether or not it make more sense depends upon your pre-determined narrative.

 

I would argue the offer to Eovaldi never made sense under any circumstances.

 

And now we have the argument that maybe the Sox needed to make an offer with deferred money to lower the AAV on the table, a proposal as far as any of us know was never made, but maybe should have been.

 

I am also not as flat out convinced as you are that Henry simply said "No. Too much. Move on."