A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I usally like the opt outs, because if the player is good then you get those seasons from him and let someone else watch him decline. The opt out was the only redeeming feature of Price's contract. And I would have gladly let him walk after 3 years regardless of how good he was in his fourth, just to avoid the inevitable decline in the fifth, sixth and seventh seasons...

 

In theory, the opt-out could work in the team's favor. In reality, has it ever done so?

[moonslav59]

It's the way the arb system is now. JBJ got a raise for 2020 even though his 2019 season was worse than his 2018 season.

 

You only get good young players cheap for 4 seasons at the most now.

 

The fact that E-Rod didn't play shouldn't have any bearing, though. Not his fault he got the plague.

 

The theory is they were way underpaid pre-arb years, and it's "make-up time."

[moonslav59]

I usally like the opt outs, because if the player is good then you get those seasons from him and let someone else watch him decline. The opt out was the only redeeming feature of Price's contract. And I would have gladly let him walk after 3 years regardless of how good he was in his fourth, just to avoid the inevitable decline in the fifth, sixth and seventh seasons...

 

Agreed.

[mvp 78]

The theory is they were way underpaid pre-arb years, and it's "make-up time."

 

CBA needs to shorten the pre-arb years at the very least.

[moonslav59]

In theory, the opt-out could work in the team's favor. In reality, has it ever done so?

 

There must be a case of someone opting out, then getting hurt or cliff-diving.

[moonslav59]

CBA needs to shorten the pre-arb years at the very least.

 

Yes, and drastically increase the minimum wage.

[Bellhorn04]

There must be a case of someone opting out, then getting hurt or cliff-diving.

 

The Yanks had a chance to let Sabathia go after 3 good years, but they blew it and re-upped him. But it's hard to let a guy go who's been your ace.

 

If an opt-out works in favor of the team, it's strictly by luck.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and drastically increase the minimum wage.

 

But then it'll be even harder to manage your payroll.

 

There's no perfect solution.

[moonslav59]

But then it'll be even harder to manage your payroll.

 

There's no perfect solution.

 

To raise the minimum wage from around $800K to $1.5M may only mean adding about $5-10M to the Sox payroll and maybe $10-15M to low payroll teams.

 

I'd suggest a graduated pay scale based on years in the bigs.

 

Maybe $1.5M year 1, $1.75M year 2, $2M year 3, then arbs...

[jad]

CBA needs to shorten the pre-arb years at the very least.

 

Wasn't the rationale for this that teams subsidized the 'training' of players through the minor leagues? (cf. the NFL, which has its own taxpayer-funded minor league in the NCAA). But now that they are shrinking the minor leagues, the pre-arb years should be shrunk or eliminated as well. (Alas, as in other sports, the players with the most clout in the union are likely the highest paid ones.)

[notin]

There must be a case of someone opting out, then getting hurt or cliff-diving.

 

JD Drew?

[notin]

The Yanks had a chance to let Sabathia go after 3 good years, but they blew it and re-upped him. But it's hard to let a guy go who's been your ace.

 

If an opt-out works in favor of the team, it's strictly by luck.

 

Doesn't that go for any free agent contract?

[moonslav59]

JD Drew?

 

He had an opt out?

[moonslav59]

Doesn't that go for any free agent contract?

 

Very few FAs had "opt out" clauses.

[moonslav59]

VTek did not have an opt out, but he did refuse a big offer and ended up settling for way less. (The team made out.)

[mvp 78]

To raise the minimum wage from around $800K to $1.5M may only mean adding about $5-10M to the Sox payroll and maybe $10-15M to low payroll teams.

 

I'd suggest a graduated pay scale based on years in the bigs.

 

Maybe $1.5M year 1, $1.75M year 2, $2M year 3, then arbs...

 

And just increase lux tax calculation by the amount you're potentially paying minimum wage guys.

[mvp 78]

Wasn't the rationale for this that teams subsidized the 'training' of players through the minor leagues? (cf. the NFL, which has its own taxpayer-funded minor league in the NCAA). But now that they are shrinking the minor leagues, the pre-arb years should be shrunk or eliminated as well. (Alas, as in other sports, the players with the most clout in the union are likely the highest paid ones.)

 

Problem being that the best players are getting screwed the most and they typically need the least amount of training.

 

Also, they don't even pay a poverty wage to the vast majority of minor league guys.

[moonslav59]

And just increase lux tax calculation by the amount you're potentially paying minimum wage guys.

 

I thought of that, too- or create a minimum team budget with serious penalties for not spending a set amount. (Make the penalty worth more than what the cost would have been to meet the low threshold.)

[moonslav59]

Problem being that the best players are getting screwed the most and they typically need the least amount of training.

 

Also, they don't even pay a poverty wage to the vast majority of minor league guys.

 

That pay could be raised, also.

 

My step raise idea, by itself might create a situation where the Pirates only have 1 year players for 20 slots, saving the $700K per players reaching 2nd year status. They'd DFA or trade players as soon as they reach 1 year of service.

 

A large percentage of players never reach arb or their arb years are the most they ever get in their careers.

 

If they all pulled together to demand the low end pay be raise significantly, I think it would have to be done.

[Bellhorn04]

He had an opt out?

 

He opted out of his contract with the Dodgers before signing with the Red Sox.

 

But he lived up to his contract with us for the most part.

[Bellhorn04]

Doesn't that go for any free agent contract?

 

Yes, I'm just saying that a free agent contract with a player opt-out is even worse than one without an opt-out.

[moonslav59]

He opted out of his contract with the Dodgers before signing with the Red Sox.

 

But he lived up to his contract with us for the most part.

 

So, the team (the Dodgers) didn't really make out on the opt-out.

[notin]

He had an opt out?

 

With his Dodgers' contract before the Sox signed him...

[notin]

So, the team (the Dodgers) didn't really make out on the opt-out.

 

Arguably they did.

 

He had two years left on the deal. his first year in Boston was not very good. His second year was very good, but carried by one electric month...

[moonslav59]

Well, we found out a little bit more about who the Sox brass valued and didn't value, yesterday. Our 40 man roster is at 40, again, with Pedey's fate decided.

 

My guess is, we add 2-4 pitchers to the 26 man roster, along with an OF'er or two and maybe a 2Bman. Perhaps we add someone who can play CF and 2B.

 

At minimum, I feel we have to add:

 

1 solid & durable SP'er

1 closer

1 CF'er

1 OF/2B

 

I think we will add 2 more pitchers.

 

We may add a separate OF and 2Bman instead of one who does both.

 

We will likely add a lot of minor league /AAAA types that are not on the 40 man roster.

 

[notin]

Well, we found out a little bit more about who the Sox brass valued and didn't value, yesterday. Our 40 man roster is at 40, again, with Pedey's fate decided.

 

My guess is, we add 2-4 pitchers to the 26 man roster, along with an OF'er or two and maybe a 2Bman. Perhaps we add someone who can play CF and 2B.

 

At minimum, I feel we have to add:

 

1 solid & durable SP'er

1 closer

1 CF'er

1 OF/2B

 

I think we will add 2 more pitchers.

 

We may add a separate OF and 2Bman instead of one who does both.

 

We will likely add a lot of minor league /AAAA types that are not on the 40 man roster.

 

 

Some of this could be re-arranged depending on whom (if anyone) the Sox trade away.

 

For example, if they deal Vazquez or Dalbec, a catcher or 1b/3b becomes a requirement...

[oldtimer]

Well, we found out a little bit more about who the Sox brass valued and didn't value, yesterday. Our 40 man roster is at 40, again, with Pedey's fate decided.

 

My guess is, we add 2-4 pitchers to the 26 man roster, along with an OF'er or two and maybe a 2Bman. Perhaps we add someone who can play CF and 2B.

 

At minimum, I feel we have to add:

 

1 solid & durable SP'er

1 closer

1 CF'er

1 OF/2B

 

I think we will add 2 more pitchers.

 

We may add a separate OF and 2Bman instead of one who does both.

 

We will likely add a lot of minor league /AAAA types that are not on the 40 man roster.

 

There will be many more changes to the 40 man and Pedey's fate is far from decided. I'll be very surprised if Pedey occupies a roster spot after the winter meetings.

 

Improving the pitching should be the first priority. With Sale not back until sometime in June and with no guaranties he will be dominant and also E-Rod having questions we start the season with Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. Only others are Mazza, Seabold, Mata and D-Hern and they at best would be a leap of faith. I agree we need a solid starter and maybe another back end starter if we want to be competitive.

 

We also don't have a closer and maybe one or two useful relievers to displace some of our current 40 man. We are kidding ourselves if we think the pitching moves will come cheaply. What money is left could be put into an outfielder and a second baseman. With JBJ probably gone, we could fill center field with Verdugo and while many don't think he is ready, Duran is knocking on the door. I'm for replacing Beni in left. Ozuna is a possibility but maybe too expensive based on our pitching needs. Picking up a placeholder until 2022 may be the best answer.

 

Second base may be our lowest priority, with Arroyo serviceable and Downs not too far in the future. Again, put the money into pitching and if a deal comes up too good to pass on take it.

[moonslav59]

There will be many more changes to the 40 man and Pedey's fate is far from decided. I'll be very surprised if Pedey occupies a roster spot after the winter meetings.

 

Improving the pitching should be the first priority. With Sale not back until sometime in June and with no guaranties he will be dominant and also E-Rod having questions we start the season with Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. Only others are Mazza, Seabold, Mata and D-Hern and they at best would be a leap of faith. I agree we need a solid starter and maybe another back end starter if we want to be competitive.

 

We also don't have a closer and maybe one or two useful relievers to displace some of our current 40 man. We are kidding ourselves if we think the pitching moves will come cheaply. What money is left could be put into an outfielder and a second baseman. With JBJ probably gone, we could fill center field with Verdugo and while many don't think he is ready, Duran is knocking on the door. I'm for replacing Beni in left. Ozuna is a possibility but maybe too expensive based on our pitching needs. Picking up a placeholder until 2022 may be the best answer.

 

Second base may be our lowest priority, with Arroyo serviceable and Downs not too far in the future. Again, put the money into pitching and if a deal comes up too good to pass on take it.

 

Pedey is decided. The only question is when. My guess is they already know when.

[moonslav59]

Some of this could be re-arranged depending on whom (if anyone) the Sox trade away.

 

For example, if they deal Vazquez or Dalbec, a catcher or 1b/3b becomes a requirement...

 

Yes, and if we trade Dalbec, we'd keep Chavis or maybe sign someone like Moreland.

 

I'm curious if any GMs want Chavis enough to give us anything of value.

[notin]

Yes, and if we trade Dalbec, we'd keep Chavis or maybe sign someone like Moreland.

 

I'm curious if any GMs want Chavis enough to give us anything of value.

 

Chavis can hit LHP and makes minimum wage. He has some value, but he isn’t a marquee trading chip...