A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, the acquisition of Eovaldi was a win. Beeks has been good enough in TB, but is now down with TJS

[Kimmi]

Again, not the biggest sample size.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, has signing Eovaldi been a good move or a bad one?

 

Now, granted, he does have 2 years left to go all Lackey on us and make it look like a good deal...

 

To date, the extension has not been good.

 

That said, I like the signing, though I would have preferred one less year.

[notin]

I'd say bad, so far, despite the playoff heroics.

 

There's time to turn it around, and I'll always be grateful for his inspiration and performance in 2018.

 

There have been no playoffs on this contract, much less any heroics.

 

There is time, correct.

 

Lackey is a great example of a player who was worthless for 2 years, then missed a year, and was only really any good the last 2 years of a 5 year deal. But we all remember him positively. Thank you, 2013 postseason...

Edited September 18, 2020 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

There have been no playoffs on this contract, much less any heroics.

 

There is time, correct.

 

Lackey is a great example of a player who was worthless for 2 years, then missed a year, and was only really any good the last 2 years of a 5 year deal. But we all remember him positively. Thank you, 2013 postseason...

 

Lackey actually had a 3.3 fWAR in the first year of his deal. That's far from worthless.

[Bellhorn04]

The most surprising thing about Lackey's contract is that it actually yielded a plus value by FanGraphs calculations, when you factor in the minimum wage season in 2015.

[mvp 78]

@pgammo

‘It’s complicated’: Concern rising for Eduardo Rodriguez’s bounce-back ability

cool cool cool cool....

[moonslav59]

Well, the acquisition of Eovaldi was a win. Beeks has been good enough in TB, but is now down with TJS

 

True. I was speaking to the re-signing.

[Bellhorn04]

To date, the extension has not been good.

 

That said, I like the signing, though I would have preferred one less year.

 

I would have been upset if they traded him and will be upset if they do so in the offseason. He's my new Buchholz!

[Bellhorn04]

@pgammo

‘It’s complicated’: Concern rising for Eduardo Rodriguez’s bounce-back ability

cool cool cool cool....

 

Needless to say that's a huge concern and priority for the 2021 team.

 

Also maybe a good time to talk extension with him?

[notin]

Needless to say that's a huge concern and priority for the 2021 team.

 

Also maybe a good time to talk extension with him?

 

Tht depends on the team's ability to guess how well he recovers. This is uncharted waters.

 

With Sale, at least they know that pitchers with his problems do come back eventually, but they also (likely?) new he was a big question mark for 2020. With ERod, that is not necessarily the case...

[notin]

I would have been upset if they traded him and will be upset if they do so in the offseason. He's my new Buchholz!

 

They did trade Buchholz...

[Bellhorn04]

They did trade Buchholz...

 

Yep, not until he was really trending towards done though.

[notin]

Yep, not until he was really trending towards done though.

 

Two years after he was traded, he gave Arizona 98 innings of 2.01 ERA/209 ERA+ baseball. Will we ever get a 209ERA+ from Eovaldi in a season? Or 98 IP?

[Bellhorn04]

Two years after he was traded, he gave Arizona 98 innings of 2.01 ERA/209 ERA+ baseball. Will we ever get a 209ERA+ from Eovaldi in a season? Or 98 IP?

 

Eovaldi exceeded 98 IP in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018.

[notin]

Eovaldi exceeded 98 IP in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018.

 

 

Some of those were two TJ surgeries ago.

 

He's a very, very high risk and was at the time of signing and has done nothing to prove me wrong when I said so.

 

It's a shame, because a pitcher who can throw 98mph as often as he does is indeed a rarity, although it may also be the source of the problem...

[Bellhorn04]

Some of those were two TJ surgeries ago.

 

He's a very, very high risk and was at the time of signing and has done nothing to prove me wrong when I said so.

 

It's a shame, because a pitcher who can throw 98mph as often as he does is indeed a rarity, although it may also be the source of the problem...

 

He doesn't just throw hard, he has command of the zone. 44 K's and only 6 walks (7.33 K/BB) in 42.1 IP.

[moonslav59]

Two years after he was traded, he gave Arizona 98 innings of 2.01 ERA/209 ERA+ baseball. Will we ever get a 209ERA+ from Eovaldi in a season? Or 98 IP?

 

It's hard to ever say Buch tending down, since his whole career was a yo-yo.

[notin]

It's hard to ever say Buch tending down, since his whole career was a yo-yo.

 

True, but it never cost $68 million to find out...

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

#RedSox VP of player development Ben Crockett said the team is planning a fall camp for prospects next month in Ft. Myers. Invites have not yet gone out.

 

They've had discussions with teams in the area about having games, but nothing scheduled yet.

[notin]

He doesn't just throw hard, he has command of the zone. 44 K's and only 6 walks (7.33 K/BB) in 42.1 IP.

 

These are among the reasons I'd rather see him moved to a closer role, which is hopefully in the future for him. He simply struggles to handle a full time starter role.

 

With Eovaldi, and many other pitchers, it's never been a question of ability but rather one of durability. He's like Brett Anderson that way, and why I would never give Brett Anderson a 4 year big money deal, something every GM in MLB clearly agrees with me on...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hard to ever say Buch tending down, since his whole career was a yo-yo.

 

Some folks forget that for a few golden months in the title year of 2013, I'm-the-ace/he's-the-ace actually was the ace... before he got hurt.

 

As for Eovaldi, I understand the disappointment in the number of innings he's provided since 2018, but I don't get why a team with historically bad starting pitching would ever want to get rid of a hard worker who 1) is still in his prime; 2) throws 100 mph; and 3) is a proven winner in the postseason and in Yankee Stadium.

 

Eovaldi is exactly the kind of starter with elite stuff and credentials that the Sox should be targeting. And dumping his $17 million salary to reinvest the savings into another arm doesn't make sense, when a guy like Zach Wheeler with similar talents -- but no rings -- just upped the pitching market last year by signing for $23.6 million annually for the next five seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Eovaldi, I understand the disappointment in the number of innings he's provided since 2018, but I don't get why a team with historically bad starting pitching would ever want to get rid of a hard worker who 1) is still in his prime; 2) throws 100 mph; and 3) is a proven winner in the postseason and in Yankee Stadium.

 

Eovaldi is exactly the kind of starter with elite stuff and credentials that the Sox should be targeting. And dumping his $17 million salary to reinvest the savings into another arm doesn't make sense, when a guy like Zach Wheeler with similar talents -- but no rings -- just upped the pitching market last year by signing for $23.6 million annually for the next five seasons.

 

With you 100%.

[moonslav59]

Some folks forget that for a few golden months in the title year of 2013, I'm-the-ace/he's-the-ace actually was the ace... before he got hurt.

 

As for Eovaldi, I understand the disappointment in the number of innings he's provided since 2018, but I don't get why a team with historically bad starting pitching would ever want to get rid of a hard worker who 1) is still in his prime; 2) throws 100 mph; and 3) is a proven winner in the postseason and in Yankee Stadium.

 

Eovaldi is exactly the kind of starter with elite stuff and credentials that the Sox should be targeting. And dumping his $17 million salary to reinvest the savings into another arm doesn't make sense, when a guy like Zach Wheeler with similar talents -- but no rings -- just upped the pitching market last year by signing for $23.6 million annually for the next five seasons.

 

I didn't forget.

 

Here are some interesting numbers. Best ERA- in a season since 1970 (100+ IP):

 

1. 2000 Pedro 35

2. 1994 Maddux 37

3. 1995 Maddux 39

4. 1973 S Rogers 41

5. 2013 Buchholz 42

6. 1999 Pedro 42

 

14. 1997 Pedro 45 (MTL)

18. 1990 Clemens 47

19. 2018 C Sale 47

22. 2003 Pedro 48

25. 2002 Pedro 50

36. 2001 Pedro 53

42. 2010 Buchholz 54

65. 1994 Clemens 57

66. 2002 D Lowe 57

73. 1986 Clemens 57

78. 1992 Clemens 58

85. 1972 L Tiant 59

 

 

 

[harmony]

One Nathan Eovaldi comp might be Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi.

 

Or not.

 

Kikuchi signed a multiyear free agent contract less than one month after Eovaldi signed his multiyear free agent contract in the 2018-19 offseason. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Kikuchi signed for four years and $56 million with complicated options through 2025. Eovaldi's contract is for four years and $68 million.

 

Kikuchi, who is 16 months younger than Eovaldi, has posted 1.4 fWAR in 39 starts and 198.2 innings since joining the Mariners. Entering Thursday's solid start, Eovaldi had posted 0.1 fWAR in 30 appearances, including 19 starts, in 105 innings.

 

This season Kikuchi has posted 1.1 fWAR over 37 innings in seven starts while, entering Thursday's game, Eovaldi had posted 0.3 fWAR over 37.1 innings in seven starts.

 

Each pitcher has generally disappointed since signing a free agent contract.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathan-eovaldi/9132/stats?position=P

Updated stats: With his solid start Thursday, this season Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings. Yusei Kikuchi has posted 1.1 fWAR in seven starts covering 37 innings as the lefthander awaits his eighth start tonight.

 

bWAR tells a different story this season, giving Eovaldi 0.9 bWAR and Kikuchi 0.0 bWAR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml#all_pitching_value

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kikucyu01.shtml#all_pitching_value

[cp176]

Some folks forget that for a few golden months in the title year of 2013, I'm-the-ace/he's-the-ace actually was the ace... before he got hurt.

 

As for Eovaldi, I understand the disappointment in the number of innings he's provided since 2018, but I don't get why a team with historically bad starting pitching would ever want to get rid of a hard worker who 1) is still in his prime; 2) throws 100 mph; and 3) is a proven winner in the postseason and in Yankee Stadium.

 

Eovaldi is exactly the kind of starter with elite stuff and credentials that the Sox should be targeting. And dumping his $17 million salary to reinvest the savings into another arm doesn't make sense, when a guy like Zach Wheeler with similar talents -- but no rings -- just upped the pitching market last year by signing for $23.6 million annually for the next five seasons.

 

I love the guy and love the fact that he was signed to a new contract. It is not always simply about the money. As for E-Rod, just a few years ago the highest projection for him was that he might become a solid number 2 starter. I was and have been a big supporter but the people who expect more out of him I think will be disappointed. #2 maybe and that isn't bad but his mentality says that he ain't no ace. He is just not tough enough physically as well as mentally.

[cp176]

I love the guy and love the fact that he was signed to a new contract. It is not always simply about the money. As for E-Rod, just a few years ago the highest projection for him was that he might become a solid number 2 starter. I was and have been a big supporter but the people who expect more out of him I think will be disappointed. #2 maybe and that isn't bad but his mentality says that he ain't no ace. He is just not tough enough physically as well as mentally.

 

 

Oh and for the record although I did like the Price signing, but sure as s*** I would have far preferred a John Lester reup.

[Kimmi]

I would have been upset if they traded him and will be upset if they do so in the offseason. He's my new Buchholz!

 

LOL I hadn't really thought of him as my new Buchholz, but I'm with you Bell!

[Kimmi]

@pgammo

‘It’s complicated’: Concern rising for Eduardo Rodriguez’s bounce-back ability

cool cool cool cool....

 

It's complicated, but at the same time they said that ERod had a good medical update. Sounds hopeful.

[Kimmi]

Some folks forget that for a few golden months in the title year of 2013, I'm-the-ace/he's-the-ace actually was the ace... before he got hurt.

 

As for Eovaldi, I understand the disappointment in the number of innings he's provided since 2018, but I don't get why a team with historically bad starting pitching would ever want to get rid of a hard worker who 1) is still in his prime; 2) throws 100 mph; and 3) is a proven winner in the postseason and in Yankee Stadium.

 

Eovaldi is exactly the kind of starter with elite stuff and credentials that the Sox should be targeting. And dumping his $17 million salary to reinvest the savings into another arm doesn't make sense, when a guy like Zach Wheeler with similar talents -- but no rings -- just upped the pitching market last year by signing for $23.6 million annually for the next five seasons.

 

With you 100%.

 

Ditto.

[Kimmi]

On a side note, Workman had another tough outing with the Phillies last night. I feel bad for the guy.