A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Maybe the farm wasn't as " decimated " as reported .

 

He pitched 5 innings against the Marlins.

 

It was a terrific debut, but possibly too small of a sample size to go thinking the entire scouting industry got everything wrong...

[notin]

If Houck is our 5th best pitching prospect, one has to ask why haven't we seen any of these guys before? We been putting up guys who were other teams rejects instead. Does a prospect have to turn 25 to get a look in the Red Sox organization? Not a very good statement about the Red Sox development program.

 

 

I think they do want them to pitch above A-ball before they reach MLB. The 4 prospects ranked ahead of Houck - Mata, Ward, Groome and Song - have combined for 53.2 innings above A ball, all of them from Mata. And he did not exactly dazzle at that level himself to the tune of a 5,03 ERA / 1.45 WHIP...

[moonslav59]

Maybe the farm wasn't as " decimated " as reported .

 

Based on 5 IPfrom Houck and a few weeks of dingers from Dalbec?

[moonslav59]

I think they do want them to pitch above A-ball before they reach MLB. The 4 prospects ranked ahead of Houck - Mata, Ward, Groome and Song - have combined for 53.2 innings above A ball, all of them from Mata. And he did not exactly dazzle at that level himself to the tune of a 5,03 ERA / 1.45 WHIP...

 

Expecting anything from these 4, even in 2021, is asking too much.

 

Our best "hopes" are far away. That might not be a bad thing, if our rebuilding plan is more like a 2-3 year plan than a 1 year plan.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Houck is our 5th best pitching prospect, one has to ask why haven't we seen any of these guys before? We been putting up guys who were other teams rejects instead. Does a prospect have to turn 25 to get a look in the Red Sox organization? Not a very good statement about the Red Sox development program.

 

Ratings are sometimes not worth the paper they’re printed on. Soxprospects has Houck behind Mata, Ward, Song, and Groome. Ward is nowhere near the stuff guy Houck is and he walks the park. Song is on a battleship. Groome can’t seem to find his way outside of a doctor’s office. Mata is the only real pitching prospect above Houck. The others are either rated incorrectly or have such significant caveats to not be useful. Houck is a legit pitching prospect. Thing is, he’s not really a starting pitcher (yet or maybe ever) and he’s not really a reliever. He’s a tweener with limited command and a need to develop a new pitch to get lefties out

[mvp 78]

Ratings are sometimes not worth the paper they’re printed on. Soxprospects has Houck behind Mata, Ward, Song, and Groome. Ward is nowhere near the stuff guy Houck is and he walks the park. Song is on a battleship. Groome can’t seem to find his way outside of a doctor’s office. Mata is the only real pitching prospect above Houck. The others are either rated incorrectly or have such significant caveats to not be useful. Houck is a legit pitching prospect. Thing is, he’s not really a starting pitcher (yet or maybe ever) and he’s not really a reliever. He’s a tweener with limited command and a need to develop a new pitch to get lefties out

 

The rating for Houck is depressed as they don't believe he's a starter. They believe Ward/Mata/Song/Groome all have a better potential to stick as a starter. Prior to this year, that definitely seemed to be the case. But I'm sure you know much more about the prospects than those guys do.

[notin]

Ratings are sometimes not worth the paper they’re printed on. Soxprospects has Houck behind Mata, Ward, Song, and Groome. Ward is nowhere near the stuff guy Houck is and he walks the park. Song is on a battleship. Groome can’t seem to find his way outside of a doctor’s office. Mata is the only real pitching prospect above Houck. The others are either rated incorrectly or have such significant caveats to not be useful. Houck is a legit pitching prospect. Thing is, he’s not really a starting pitcher (yet or maybe ever) and he’s not really a reliever. He’s a tweener with limited command and a need to develop a new pitch to get lefties out

 

Is Ward's issue with walks (3.9 BB/9) really that much more of an issue than Deivi Garcia's (3.8 BB/9)? That's all of 1 walk for every 90 innings, or maybe 2 per season...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Nick Pivetta is pitching in Pawtucket today - which essentially ensures that he won’t be promoted until next week, thus pushing back his eligibility for free agency to 2024

[Nick]

@alexspeier

Nick Pivetta is pitching in Pawtucket today - which essentially ensures that he won’t be promoted until next week, thus pushing back his eligibility for free agency to 2024

 

I'm sure that was the plan all along....smart move by Bloom

[moonslav59]

Is Ward's issue with walks (3.9 BB/9) really that much more of an issue than Deivi Garcia's (3.8 BB/9)? That's all of 1 walk for every 90 innings, or maybe 2 per season...

 

Compare that to D Hernadez.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

MLB released the 2021 spring training schedule. Let's hope it goes as planned.

 

Red Sox open up vs. Northeastern on Feb. 26, start Grapefruit League play vs. Pirates the next day. Two games vs. Yankees (3/3, 3/10) and a home-and-home against the Braves in FL before Opening Day.

[jacksonianmarch]

Is Ward's issue with walks (3.9 BB/9) really that much more of an issue than Deivi Garcia's (3.8 BB/9)? That's all of 1 walk for every 90 innings, or maybe 2 per season...

 

Touche. Although Deivi is nearly 2 and a half years younger, has better all around stuff, and has done it at a higher level. Deivi's BB rate at a similar level (A+) was 3.1BB/9IP. And he did that when he was 19.

[notin]

Touche. Although Deivi is nearly 2 and a half years younger, has better all around stuff, and has done it at a higher level. Deivi's BB rate at a similar level (A+) was 3.1BB/9IP. And he did that when he was 19.

 

Funny thing about walks. They don't count less just because you're younger.

[dgalehouse]

He pitched 5 innings against the Marlins.

 

It was a terrific debut, but possibly too small of a sample size to go thinking the entire scouting industry got everything wrong...

 

He looked very good. Dalbec looks good . Not giving up on Chavis . Also Casas , Mata , Song , Duran . Maybe a couple of others . Probably nothing will change the views that some have . But I don't think the cupboard is quite as bare as some say it is.

[moonslav59]

He looked very good. Dalbec looks good . Not giving up on Chavis . Also Casas , Mata , Song , Duran . Maybe a couple of others . Probably nothing will change the views that some have . But I don't think the cupboard is quite as bare as some say it is.

 

I'm not sure anyone said it was completely "bare," and Bloom has added many pieces with more to come, in the form of PTBNL's for Osich and Pillar.

 

The fact remains, our farm is ranked pretty low, even after getting Downs and Wong from the Dodgers and not drafting 28th.

 

We do have some promising prospects, and I do think we have built our farm up better and faster than I thought we could. The Betts trade helped. These summer deals helped. Not finishing with a great record, last year, helped our draft, too. None of these were known aspects a year ago.

 

BTW, Chavis and DHern are no longer considered prospects, but neither has really shined all that much in the bigs.

 

I still don't see us as having a top 20 farm.

 

I've always liked Dalbec. Most of our other top prospects are too far away to feel to sure about.

 

Guys like Chatham, Wilson and Duran do not excite me all that much, but maybe Potts, Seabold and Wong can rise up and help us, soon.

[notin]

He looked very good. Dalbec looks good . Not giving up on Chavis . Also Casas , Mata , Song , Duran . Maybe a couple of others . Probably nothing will change the views that some have . But I don't think the cupboard is quite as bare as some say it is.

 

When people talk about the low-ranking farm, it doesn’t mean no one in is capable of playing in MLB ever. It means we have fewer and lesser prospects than other teams...

[dgalehouse]

When people talk about the low-ranking farm, it doesn’t mean no one in is capable of playing in MLB ever. It means we have fewer and lesser prospects than other teams...

 

You just need the guys who can fill your needs . Quality not quantity . Especially a quantity of overrated , never will be any good jabronis .

[notin]

You just need the guys who can fill your needs . Quality not quantity . Especially a quantity of overrated , never will be any good jabronis .

 

Except that they can still be traded before they don’t turn out. Tony Armas Jr. was a good prospect, for example, and probably one of the most important ones in Sox history. But not for his pitching...

Edited September 16, 2020 by notin

[notin]

You just need the guys who can fill your needs . Quality not quantity . Especially a quantity of overrated , never will be any good jabronis .

 

And really, who from Dalbec, Houck, Casas, Chavis, Ward, Song, Mata and Duran is a quality MLB player?

[Bellhorn04]

And really, who from Dalbec, Houck, Casas, Chavis, Ward, Song, Mata and Duran is a quality MLB player?

 

As William Shatner says at the start of every episode of The Unxplained:

 

"Well, that's what we're going to try to find out."

[dgalehouse]

Except that they can still be traded before they don’t turn out. Tony Armas Jr. was a good prospect, for example, and probably one of the most important ones in Sox history. But not for his pitching...

 

Yes , they can be traded . That's the whole idea . But you don't like it when they are traded .

[moonslav59]

I always find it interesting how when we trade away a bunch of highly regarded prospects, we always here some say, "Most of them never work out, anyway," of afterwards we hear, "None have done anything special yet," but when our farm has very few "highly regarded" prospects, we hear a lot of hopeful opinions.

[Bellhorn04]

I always find it interesting how when we trade away a bunch of highly regarded prospects, we always here some say, "Most of them never work out, anyway," of afterwards we hear, "None have done anything special yet," but when our farm has very few "highly regarded" prospects, we hear a lot of hopeful opinions.

 

It's a combination of bias and optimism. We like to think we're trading the right ones and keeping the right ones.

 

I realize this is mostly about DD, of course. So far we haven't been severely burned by anyone he's traded. A few mild and moderate burns, yes.

[Kimmi]

Maybe the farm wasn't as " decimated " as reported .

 

Oh, it's decimated. We went from a top 3 (#1 at one point) to a bottom 3 in an extremely short period of time.

[Kimmi]

I hope that you are right, but player and all the rest of us age, some faster than others. We can't have a middle of the lineup guy be that unproductive next season. We probably can't trade him so all we have is hope for a turnaround. We have both Beni and JDM in that predicament but it isn't unique to them as quite a few top hitters have had poor seasons. JDM is late on fastballs and Beni was pathetic. I hate to see us going deep in the season with either of them not hitting. Produce or find another place. It's tough love but the competitiveness of the team counts on requiring all to do their share.

 

I agree that we really need those guys to produce like they are capable of. The question becomes, how long of a leash do you give them before deciding that they're not going to turn it around? I would hate to give up on a player, then have him come back really strong with another team. Papi is a good example of a player that many were ready to give up on (more than once). Thank goodness we didn't. There has to be patience with this type of thing.

 

As you said, a lot of players are well below career norms this year. I don't think we'll be trading them (especially not JD), so we have to hope they'll figure it out.

[Kimmi]

You just need the guys who can fill your needs . Quality not quantity . Especially a quantity of overrated , never will be any good jabronis .

 

We don't have that.

[Kimmi]

Some good news out of this season. Our pitching is showing some signs of life. Our offense was never as bad as they've seemed at times.

 

Red Sox Notes

@soxnotes

·

1h

Red Sox pitchers have allowed 0 runs in their last 14.0 IP. In their last 10 games, Sox starters are 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA.

 

Since Sept. 5, the Sox lead the AL in OPS (.877) and rank 2nd in AVG (.291) and HR (20). Bobby Dalbec and Rafael Devers each have an 8-game hitting streak.

 

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

1m

Jeffrey Springs gave up 5 ER in his first game of the year, since then he's been pretty good even with a .388 BABIP. He's been among the league leaders in limiting hard contact and getting swing and misses. There is a bloodletting coming, he's making a strong case to stay.

[oldtimer]

I agree that we really need those guys to produce like they are capable of. The question becomes, how long of a leash do you give them before deciding that they're not going to turn it around? I would hate to give up on a player, then have him come back really strong with another team. Papi is a good example of a player that many were ready to give up on (more than once). Thank goodness we didn't. There has to be patience with this type of thing.

 

As you said, a lot of players are well below career norms this year. I don't think we'll be trading them (especially not JD), so we have to hope they'll figure it out.

 

I think when we have a player that is doing well at the position, others who normally fill that position become more expendable and on a shorter leash. It might come to that in a year or two with Dalbec and Casas as 1st basemen. It may come to that with 2nd base where Downs, Arroyo both could be good players but can you keep both? In the outfield we have Verdugo who has shown he is a keeper. With two positions left we have Beni, Chavis, Duran, Munoz and possibly a late Bloom adder or JBJ. One would think the leash would be shortened for guys who once given a reasonable chance, don't produce.

 

Age, contractual cost, years of control and position flexibility might also be part of the decision. Bloom is here to improve the team and the farm. To do that he has to get rid of under-performing players and replace them with better. His main challenge will be the large number of pitching assets to sort through.

[notin]

Yes , they can be traded . That's the whole idea . But you don't like it when they are traded .

 

Not all at once.

 

I hated that Cherington never traded any. Dombrowski traded them all. We need a happy medium. Trading all the prospects left the Sox with no minimum wage replacements, and that was likely a factor in not signing Betts...

[notin]

We don't have that.

 

Bingo.

 

For example, we could use a 2b right now...