A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

Pitching will certainly take precedent. But that doesn’t mean the Sox can’t spend some cash anywhere else.

 

I don’t think 2021 will be the debut of Hudson Potts or of Jeter Downs...

 

At least not in April.

[mvp 78]

Since no one likes Benintendi any more, maybe he could be dealt for a 2b?

 

Benintendi to Pittsburgh for Adam Frazier?

 

Does Bloom like him?

[notin]

Does Bloom like him?

 

No idea!!!

[oldtimer]

At least not in April.

 

Possibly Downs toward the end of the season, depending on the progress he shows. The Sox will still need to decide on which of any of our many possibilities we will settle on during the majority of the season or whether we look in the FA market. I am hopeful that the majority of resources will be used for pitching.

[notin]

At least not in April.

 

Downs has 12 games in AA. Even August might be a bit too early...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Downs has 12 games in AA. Even August might be a bit too early...

 

This AAugust... or next AAAugust?

[notin]

This AAugust... or next AAAugust?

 

Next AApril through AAugust, Mr. Doesn’t Read Thread Titles...

[moonslav59]

Not that soxprospects,com is the foremost authority of the subject, but they project these prospects to be at these levels, next year:

 

MLB:

1B Dalbec

CF Duran

IF Chatham

UT Munoz

 

AAA

C Wong

1B Ockimey

2B Downs

SS Arauz

3B de la Guerra

LF Puello

CF Matheny

RF Wilson

 

SP Ward, Mata, Seabold, Hart, Kickham

RP Houck, Mazza, Poyner, Bazardo, Stock, Shawaryn, Leyer

 

 

AA

C Pereda/Rei

1B Casas

2B Netzer

3B Potts

SS Fitzgerald

LF Rusconi

CF Rosario

RF Espin

DH Castellanos

 

SP Politi, Shugart, D Reyes, Raudes, Haworth

RP Ayabr, Lau, Crawford, Martinez, Gomez, Schellenger, Browning, Kent

[notin]

Not that soxprospects,com is the foremost authority of the subject, but they project these prospects to be at these levels, next year:

 

MLB:

1B Dalbec

CF Duran

IF Chatham

UT Munoz

 

AAA

C Wong

1B Ockimey

2B Downs

SS Arauz

3B de la Guerra

LF Puello

CF Matheny

RF Wilson

 

SP Ward, Mata, Seabold, Hart, Kickham

RP Houck, Mazza, Poyner, Bazardo, Stock, Shawaryn, Leyer

 

 

AA

C Pereda/Rei

1B Casas

2B Netzer

3B Potts

SS Fitzgerald

LF Rusconi

CF Rosario

RF Espin

DH Castellanos

 

SP Politi, Shugart, D Reyes, Raudes, Haworth

RP Ayabr, Lau, Crawford, Martinez, Gomez, Schellenger, Browning, Kent

 

And no one knows why they put Downs in AAA.

 

Unless they meant Jerry Downs.

Was it Jerry or Jeter? Or Jerry Jeter?

[oldtimer]

Not that soxprospects,com is the foremost authority of the subject, but they project these prospects to be at these levels, next year:

 

MLB:

1B Dalbec

CF Duran

IF Chatham

UT Munoz

 

AAA

C Wong

1B Ockimey

2B Downs

SS Arauz

3B de la Guerra

LF Puello

CF Matheny

RF Wilson

 

SP Ward, Mata, Seabold, Hart, Kickham

RP Houck, Mazza, Poyner, Bazardo, Stock, Shawaryn, Leyer

 

 

AA

C Pereda/Rei

1B Casas

2B Netzer

3B Potts

SS Fitzgerald

LF Rusconi

CF Rosario

RF Espin

DH Castellanos

 

SP Politi, Shugart, D Reyes, Raudes, Haworth

RP Ayabr, Lau, Crawford, Martinez, Gomez, Schellenger, Browning, Kent

 

We may have struck gold with Verdugo and now Munoz as parts of the 2021 team. Munoz is thought of as UT and is flexible to play either outfield or 2nd. Clearly we need to play Munoz consistently for the remainder of the season to see if we have a ML player here.

 

Right now I would not be thinking of Dalbec as making the team in 2021. Duran remains to be seen but reports are favorable. Chatham might make it at the UT infield level. I can see Casas making the jump to AAA quickly. I argue against a special talent being held back in the minors too long, if he shows the ability to move up the ranks quickly.

 

I am all for Bloom stirring the pot and reconstituting the team with players who can perform. This is beginning to be an interesting ride, despite the terrible season we are living with in 2020.

[Kimmi]

Does Bloom like him?

 

I like him. I wouldn't give up on him yet.

[Kimmi]

We may have struck gold with Verdugo and now Munoz as parts of the 2021 team. Munoz is thought of as UT and is flexible to play either outfield or 2nd. Clearly we need to play Munoz consistently for the remainder of the season to see if we have a ML player here.

 

Right now I would not be thinking of Dalbec as making the team in 2021. Duran remains to be seen but reports are favorable. Chatham might make it at the UT infield level. I can see Casas making the jump to AAA quickly. I argue against a special talent being held back in the minors too long, if he shows the ability to move up the ranks quickly.

 

I am all for Bloom stirring the pot and reconstituting the team with players who can perform. This is beginning to be an interesting ride, despite the terrible season we are living with in 2020.

 

Munoz might end up being a really good pick up who is under team control until 2024. I'm wondering what the circumstances are around him just packing up and leaving the Cardinals. Curious.

 

Verdugo has produced 1.4 fWAR in 40 games. That's very, very good.

[oldtimer]

Munoz might end up being a really good pick up who is under team control until 2024. I'm wondering what the circumstances are around him just packing up and leaving the Cardinals. Curious.

 

 

From what I have read, but now have lost the article, Munoz complained that he wasn't playing when he thought he was a better option and made a pest of himself such that they thought he was a distraction so were willing to part with him. A guy with an ego but also a guy who has a knack for hitting. If he is good enough to make the Sox lineup, his ego should not get in the way. It would be a boon to have another player that can deliver at the plate.

[notin]

We may have struck gold with Verdugo and now Munoz as parts of the 2021 team. Munoz is thought of as UT and is flexible to play either outfield or 2nd. Clearly we need to play Munoz consistently for the remainder of the season to see if we have a ML player here.

 

Right now I would not be thinking of Dalbec as making the team in 2021. Duran remains to be seen but reports are favorable. Chatham might make it at the UT infield level. I can see Casas making the jump to AAA quickly. I argue against a special talent being held back in the minors too long, if he shows the ability to move up the ranks quickly.

 

I am all for Bloom stirring the pot and reconstituting the team with players who can perform. This is beginning to be an interesting ride, despite the terrible season we are living with in 2020.

 

 

Really? You’d cut Dalbec after 18 at-bats? Sure, he’s hitting .111 now, but he’s also one 4 for 5 day away from respectability.

 

And then fast track Casas? What happens if Casas starts out 2 for 18 in MLB?

[harmony]

Munoz might end up being a really good pick up who is under team control until 2024. I'm wondering what the circumstances are around him just packing up and leaving the Cardinals. Curious.

 

Verdugo has produced 1.4 fWAR in 40 games. That's very, very good.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/before-injury-exam-munoz-left-team-without-notice-and-flew/article_9508c484-1c3d-5d84-b653-e7e1b9c0c9d5.html

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-news-analysis-mlb/2020/3/9/21171873/yairo-munoz-has-peaced-the-heck-out-of-training-camp-a-hunt-and-peck

[oldtimer]

Really? You’d cut Dalbec after 18 at-bats? Sure, he’s hitting .111 now, but he’s also one 4 for 5 day away from respectability.

 

And then fast track Casas? What happens if Casas starts out 2 for 18 in MLB?

 

Dalbec has been in the minors for a while and was a swing and miss guy who had power when he connected. I'm for continuing with Dalbec this season and giving him the chance to perform. So far neither his past performance and his ML start are where he needs to be to make the team in 2021. I doubt he makes it. In the case of Casas, he is more of a contact hitter with a lot of power. I advocated a rapid move to high minors for next year. If he can handle that, then and only then we should bring him up.

[Kimmi]

From what I have read, but now have lost the article, Munoz complained that he wasn't playing when he thought he was a better option and made a pest of himself such that they thought he was a distraction so were willing to part with him. A guy with an ego but also a guy who has a knack for hitting. If he is good enough to make the Sox lineup, his ego should not get in the way. It would be a boon to have another player that can deliver at the plate.

 

I do recall seeing something about playing time, but I didn't know what the exact circumstances were around that. I guess he didn't leave St. Louis on the best of terms. Hopefully, his ego or whatever it is will not be a problem with the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/before-injury-exam-munoz-left-team-without-notice-and-flew/article_9508c484-1c3d-5d84-b653-e7e1b9c0c9d5.html

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-news-analysis-mlb/2020/3/9/21171873/yairo-munoz-has-peaced-the-heck-out-of-training-camp-a-hunt-and-peck

 

Thanks for posting these Harmony. It's very strange (and immature) that he would leave without any communication, regardless of what his reason was for leaving.

[oldtimer]

Thanks for posting these Harmony. It's very strange (and immature) that he would leave without any communication, regardless of what his reason was for leaving.

 

I didn't realize he left without notice. Not a good thing to do. No doubt Sox management had a long talk with him about how they expect him to behave going forward.

[moonslav59]

It does seem like a very strange thing to do as you are very close to making it on the bog roster.

 

Maybe this will be the first real gem we've been hoping Bloom would find.

 

The kids is off to a fantastic start.

[moonslav59]

Really? You’d cut Dalbec after 18 at-bats? Sure, he’s hitting .111 now, but he’s also one 4 for 5 day away from respectability.

 

And then fast track Casas? What happens if Casas starts out 2 for 18 in MLB?

 

Dalbec has only 1609 career PAs in the minors. That's like 2.5 full ML seasons.

 

The 480 K's are awful, but with nearly 190 BBs, and an OBP over .360, it might not be as bad as can be imagined.

 

169 XNHs in 1609 PAs is better than 1 every 10 PAs or 8 ABs.

 

He deserves a long look.

 

We hear comps to Middy as we did with Chavis. Here's a look at the 3 players' minor league totals:

PAs Player OBP/SLG and K%

2795 Middy .325/461 and 25.1%

1757 Chavis .325/.471 and 25.6%

1609 Dalbec .362/.505 and 29.8%

[harmony]

It does seem like a very strange thing to do as you are very close to making it on the bog roster.

 

Maybe this will be the first real gem we've been hoping Bloom would find.

 

The kids is off to a fantastic start.

Shades of the four-game midseason Red Sox debut of another mid-20s righthand-hitting Dominican utility player cast off after two partial MLB seasons with an NL Central club:

 

2012 PC 18 PA, .625/.647/.750/1.397

2020 YM 15 PA, .533/.533/.933/1.467

 

Let's give it up for Pedro Ciriaco.

Edited September 6, 2020 by harmony

[vegasbob]

Given the nature of the season and its outcome for Boston, I certainly agree that Dalbec and others like Arauz, Munoz should be given experience so they will know what to work on and expect from MLB pitching. The results do have meaning for developmental purposes , but should not affect the young guys status going into next Spring or to be throw-ins in an insignificant trade (PTBNL types).

 

Chavis will be given the benefit of the doubt unless part of a trade, but Michael has seen enough action that he needs to begin showing more consistency or he will be passed by after 2021. Devers need to think about that same thing, although doubtless he is staying around.

 

I also think the 2021 season may have a 50-50 chance of not being a normal year either for players or fans as Covid -19 will still be a factor.

Edited September 6, 2020 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

Given the nature of the season and its outcome for Boston, I certainly agree that Dalbec and others like Arauz, Munoz should be given experience so they will know what to work on and expect from MLB pitching. The results do have meaning for developmental purposes , but should not affect the young guys status going into next Spring or to be throw-ins in an insignificant trade (PTBNL types).

 

Chavis will be given the benefit of the doubt unless part of a trade, but Michael has seen enough action that he needs to begin showing more consistency or he will be passed by after 2021. Devers need to think about that same thing, although doubtless he is staying around.

 

I also think the 2021 season may have a 50-50 chance of not being a normal year either for players or fans as Covid -19 will still be a factor.

 

Agreed.

 

Play Dalbec, Munoz, Arauz & Chavis as much as possible, so we can get a better feel on who they are. A few weeks is not enough to know anything, for sure, but knowing more can't hurt.

 

I'm not sure I need to see more IP from anybody on the staff. I see little hope anyone will do enough to instill much confidence for 2021 and/or beyond.

[moonslav59]

The future of the Sox by age...

(Best bets)

 

17 Jordan

18 Yorke, Bonaci

19 Lugo

20 Casa, Jimenez, Rosario

21 Mata, Potts, Arauz

22 Downs, Groome

23 Devers, D Hernandez, Ward, Song

24 Verdugo, Chavis, Duran, Houck, Wong, Seabold

25 Beni, Dalbec, Munoz

27 Bogaerts

29 Vazquez

31 Sale

 

[Kimmi]

I didn't realize he left without notice. Not a good thing to do. No doubt Sox management had a long talk with him about how they expect him to behave going forward.

 

It's only been a short while, but he seems to be happy here. Of course, that could change if things don't go the way he thinks they should. But let's hope the change of scenery is the cure for whatever was going on with him in St. Louis.

[notin]

Dalbec has been in the minors for a while and was a swing and miss guy who had power when he connected. I'm for continuing with Dalbec this season and giving him the chance to perform. So far neither his past performance and his ML start are where he needs to be to make the team in 2021. I doubt he makes it. In the case of Casas, he is more of a contact hitter with a lot of power. I advocated a rapid move to high minors for next year. If he can handle that, then and only then we should bring him up.

 

Casas has all of 500 plate appearances in the minors over his career. So far all he’s done is face A ball pitchers.

 

Dalbec is much, much, much more likely to make this team and contribute. These are not even wildly differently ranked prospects. Prior to the 2020 season, BA had Casas at 70 and Dalbec at 75...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Casas has all of 500 plate appearances in the minors over his career. So far all he’s done is face A ball pitchers.

 

Dalbec is much, much, much more likely to make this team and contribute. These are not even wildly differently ranked prospects. Prior to the 2020 season, BA had Casas at 70 and Dalbec at 75...

 

This may no longer be a good gauge in modern pro baseball, but I like to look at walks to strikeouts when considering a prospect. Both Dalbec and Casas walk less than half the time they K; Chavis whiffed more than three times as much as walked in the minors.

 

In contrast, Mookie walked more than he struck out before he made the majors. So did the Greek God (Jewish Messiah), Yook. Wade Boggs was somehow left in the minors for six seasons when he walked over twice as many times as he fanned.

[notin]

This may no longer be a good gauge in modern pro baseball, but I like to look at walks to strikeouts when considering a prospect. Both Dalbec and Casas walk less than half the time they K; Chavis whiffed more than three times as much as walked in the minors.

 

In contrast, Mookie walked more than he struck out before he made the majors. So did the Greek God (Jewish Messiah), Yook. Wade Boggs was somehow left in the minors for six seasons when he walked over twice as many times as he fanned.

 

K:BB was the main talking point of poster JoeBreidey/JoeBrady and is a great evaluation tactic for hitters and pitchers. But in the minors, age and levels matter, too.

 

But the bottom line is you don’t immediately write off a 25yo who failed to dazzle in 20 ABs just so you can fast track a 19yo in A Ball...

Edited September 6, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

Here's my opinions:

 

While Chavis offers some value as 2B/3B depth, I think we will end up keeping just one. Sure, one could end up at DH once JD is gone, and we could probably find enough ABs for both of them at 1B, 2B, DH and 3B over the next few years, but both bat RH'd.

 

I prefer we keep Dalbec. He has better numbers in the minors and is a much better defender. Chavis has more ML experience, but I'm not sure what we've seen is a plus for him over Dalbec. To me, his ability to play 2B, and the jury is still out on how well, is his only plus.

 

Next, is a point I have brought up a few times before with very little support from other posters. I'd like to give Ockimey a shot at winning a platoon role with whoever we keep from Chavis & Dalbec- assuming we trade the other. Here is alook at their splits:

vs RHP/vs LHP (year)

Ockimey:

.898/.535 (2019) AAA

.968/.586 (2018) AA

.844/.786 (2017) A+

Dalbec:

.794/.904 (2019) AA

.868/.701 (2018) AA

.970/.881 (2018) A+

Chavis:

.540/.700 (2020) MLB (96 PAs total)

.774/.742 (2019) MLB

.880/.964 (2018) AA (only had 113 career PAs at AAA level)

.846/.602 (2017) AA

 

Maybe an Ockimey-Dalbec 1B platoon would work best.

 

Finally, 2B: I don't see Chavis as our long term 2Bman, but if his bat come back and he continues to look decent on defense (too soon to know), maybe he could end up being the best we have, until Downs is ready to challenge. Arauz, Chatham, Lin and Peraza do not excite me at much at all. Arauz-Peraza might be the best we have for 2021. Maybe Downs could jump to the bigs mid-sesason, but we should not count on it.

 

(Pitching remains our major concern area.)