A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[moonslav59]

As much as I don’t like that we rejected that deal, I think I get why Bloom did it. He couldn’t trade Betts and get back a pitcher that he feared would spend half his career on the IL...

 

Well, Verdugo was the major piece, and it's not like Downs is a given at the ML level.

 

True, he's healthier.

[harmony]

Must be a bullpen game though.

Indeed.

 

Brusdar Graterol pitched only one inning, throwing just 12 pitches, 11 for strikes, surrendering a single to Michael Brantley while striking out George Springer, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa (each on only three pitches):

 

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[Kimmi]

Houck called up.

 

His first call was to his mom.

 

“She definitely starting crying,” Houck said. “Just getting to share that moment with her was truly special.”

 

As a mom, I can relate 100%. I love hearing about these moments. I hope he pitches well.

[notin]

Well, Verdugo was the major piece, and it's not like Downs is a given at the ML level.

 

True, he's healthier.

 

Down was clearly Plan B - which became "Get the best player possible." . It's possible he never plays a game for the Sox...

[Nick]

His first call was to his mom.

 

“She definitely starting crying,” Houck said. “Just getting to share that moment with her was truly special.”

 

As a mom, I can relate 100%. I love hearing about these moments. I hope he pitches well.

 

 

I want to be patient with these guys. We need to upgrade several positions. It's not time to sign a mega contract deal that can again hamper us in rebuild situation.

 

Look for gems and give young guys chance to grow. We'll know when it's time to 'go'. I would target 2022 for playoff chase. Goal for 2021 should be to get more pieces for future.

 

Looking at some contracts.

 

I think the talk of JD Martinez opting out is very unlikely now. His contract expires after 2022. You can always find a DH for $8-10M price range.

 

Sale is with us until 2024, with 2025 option.

 

Xander is with us until 2026.

 

Pedroia's contract comes off the books after 2021, $13.75M.

 

JBJ should be let go after this year when he becomes a FA. He's not worth $11M.

 

E Rod's final year is 2021. Not sure if I want to pay him big money.

 

Beni is under team control through 2022. Really not excited about him.

 

Devers is a keeper unless someone wants to give us crazy talent in return. That only happens if a team thinks he is the missing piece to complete the world championship team.

 

Verdugo is a keeper.

 

We'll have to see who steps up in 2021.

 

Bloom will get a net gain in younger talent going forward. Veterans will be limited to no more than $10M for two years max.

[mvp 78]

I believe Xander does have an opt out in the near future.

[moonslav59]

I believe Xander does have an opt out in the near future.

 

Yes...

 

6 years/$120M (2020-25), plus 2026 option

signed extension with Boston 4/1/19

20-25:$20M annually. 26:$20M option (guaranteed if Bogaerts has 535 plate appearances in 2025 and is health at end of 2025 season

Bogaerts may opt out of contract after 2022 season

award bonuses

full no-trade protection after 7 years of Major League service (tracking to reach 7 years on 8/2/20)

[notin]

Undervalued pitchers (worth targeting?)

 

I have no idea what it would take to get any of them,.

 

1. Elieser Hernandez (Miami). Leads all SP the last two seasons in Zone % and is among the for lowest Contact %. Basically he is throwing strikes that very few can hit. Insane 6.80 K/BB this year (in only 25 IP).

 

2. Matt Boyd (Detroit). Z-Contact % and Sw Str % are both top 20 in MLB since start of 2019. Per BTV, his trade value is plummeting, but Detroit might not share this notion. However, the Tigers have hitting needs and a ton of young pitching, and Boyd is first-time arb-eligible so he is expendable. Big issue is control problems, although he is not horrible here. (Benintendi for Boyd?)

 

3. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox). Lopez has been top 20 in throwing strikes, having batters swing at strikes, and having batters miss strikes since the start of 2019. He has had some injury issues this year, but he could be poised for a huge breakout season if he can stay healthy. Biggest question is what exactly do the White Sox need, if anything?

 

I actually expect Bloom to be looking at pitchers like this to fill out the rotation. Naturally, he will use a different (better?) analysis...

[moonslav59]

Undervalued pitchers (worth targeting?)

 

I have no idea what it would take to get any of them,.

 

1. Elieser Hernandez (Miami). Leads all SP the last two seasons in Zone % and is among the for lowest Contact %. Basically he is throwing strikes that very few can hit. Insane 6.80 K/BB this year (in only 25 IP).

 

2. Matt Boyd (Detroit). Z-Contact % and Sw Str % are both top 20 in MLB since start of 2019. Per BTV, his trade value is plummeting, but Detroit might not share this notion. However, the Tigers have hitting needs and a ton of young pitching, and Boyd is first-time arb-eligible so he is expendable. Big issue is control problems, although he is not horrible here. (Benintendi for Boyd?)

 

3. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox). Lopez has been top 20 in throwing strikes, having batters swing at strikes, and having batters miss strikes since the start of 2019. He has had some injury issues this year, but he could be poised for a huge breakout season if he can stay healthy. Biggest question is what exactly do the White Sox need, if anything?

 

I actually expect Bloom to be looking at pitchers like this to fill out the rotation. Naturally, he will use a different (better?) analysis...

 

These are the types of deal I expect Bloom to be looking for.

 

I'm thinking it may take more than Beni to get Boyd, and we already have an OF shortage, but I like these ideas.

[notin]

These are the types of deal I expect Bloom to be looking for.

 

I'm thinking it may take more than Beni to get Boyd, and we already have an OF shortage, but I like these ideas.

 

BTV does give Boyd a surplus value of $5.7mill and Benintendi a surplus value of $3.6mill. Both are plummeting fast. Benintendi for Lopez ($3.7mill) is a much better match up using their criteria. But I would be surprised if Detroit did not accept a Benintendi/Boyd swap. I think I'd be more surprised if Bloom offered it.

 

Hernandez (surplus value $7mill on BTV) looks like the real gem there, but he also has the least experience. Miami has enough needs and their biggest criteria appears to be a low salary...

[jacksonianmarch]

These are the types of deal I expect Bloom to be looking for.

 

I'm thinking it may take more than Beni to get Boyd, and we already have an OF shortage, but I like these ideas.

 

That’s actually exactly who Bloom will be looking for. 3’s-4’s that can give innings at league average or better production. Or guys with ace stuff who don’t have ace production. Bloom has his work cut out for him. But he finds guys with big arms and builds a full stable of them. Magically, they seem to find it in weird roles. Some in 1 inning roles, most in a hybrid 1-2 inning role

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That’s actually exactly who Bloom will be looking for. 3’s-4’s that can give innings at league average or better production. Or guys with ace stuff who don’t have ace production. Bloom has his work cut out for him. But he finds guys with big arms and builds a full stable of them. Magically, they seem to find it in weird roles. Some in 1 inning roles, most in a hybrid 1-2 inning role

 

Red Sox Nation can hardly wait for the next new crop of openers and bulk guys that Bloom finds.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last I checked, the team he left is a half game back of the AL’s best record. And that team is built on just Xander’s and JD’s salaries! If you give bloom 5 years to build into a true WS contender, I think he’d keep the Sox there for a decade

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

JBJ is hitting .304/.396/.565 in September. When looking at what he was doing I found this ridiculous split from this season:

 

27-63 (.429) 4 HR, 8 K, 10 BB vs. 4-seam fastballs

10-85 (.141) 1 HR, 30 K, 4 BB vs. all other pitch types

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

JBJ is hitting .304/.396/.565 in September. When looking at what he was doing I found this ridiculous split from this season:

 

27-63 (.429) 4 HR, 8 K, 10 BB vs. 4-seam fastballs

10-85 (.141) 1 HR, 30 K, 4 BB vs. all other pitch types

 

Strange.

[Nick]

Last I checked, the team he left is a half game back of the AL’s best record. And that team is built on just Xander’s and JD’s salaries! If you give bloom 5 years to build into a true WS contender, I think he’d keep the Sox there for a decade

 

I'm optimistic. He'll do a great job.

 

Perhaps Theoisque in his early years with bigger budget.

[Kimmi]

I want to be patient with these guys. We need to upgrade several positions. It's not time to sign a mega contract deal that can again hamper us in rebuild situation.

 

Look for gems and give young guys chance to grow. We'll know when it's time to 'go'. I would target 2022 for playoff chase. Goal for 2021 should be to get more pieces for future.

 

Looking at some contracts.

 

I think the talk of JD Martinez opting out is very unlikely now. His contract expires after 2022. You can always find a DH for $8-10M price range.

 

Sale is with us until 2024, with 2025 option.

 

Xander is with us until 2026.

 

Pedroia's contract comes off the books after 2021, $13.75M.

 

JBJ should be let go after this year when he becomes a FA. He's not worth $11M.

 

E Rod's final year is 2021. Not sure if I want to pay him big money.

 

Beni is under team control through 2022. Really not excited about him.

 

Devers is a keeper unless someone wants to give us crazy talent in return. That only happens if a team thinks he is the missing piece to complete the world championship team.

 

Verdugo is a keeper.

 

We'll have to see who steps up in 2021.

 

Bloom will get a net gain in younger talent going forward. Veterans will be limited to no more than $10M for two years max.

 

I think we'll be competitive in 2021, but I agree, it's not yet the year to 'go'. Get some stopgap players to keep us in the hunt while continuing to build the farm and while continuing to give some of these youngster some time to develop.

 

In addition to Pedroia's, Price's contract also comes off the books after next year. More money to spend.

 

I would re-sign JBJ if he's willing to sign for a discount.

 

I think the big push will be for 2022.

[Kimmi]

Undervalued pitchers (worth targeting?)

 

I have no idea what it would take to get any of them,.

 

1. Elieser Hernandez (Miami). Leads all SP the last two seasons in Zone % and is among the for lowest Contact %. Basically he is throwing strikes that very few can hit. Insane 6.80 K/BB this year (in only 25 IP).

 

2. Matt Boyd (Detroit). Z-Contact % and Sw Str % are both top 20 in MLB since start of 2019. Per BTV, his trade value is plummeting, but Detroit might not share this notion. However, the Tigers have hitting needs and a ton of young pitching, and Boyd is first-time arb-eligible so he is expendable. Big issue is control problems, although he is not horrible here. (Benintendi for Boyd?)

 

3. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox). Lopez has been top 20 in throwing strikes, having batters swing at strikes, and having batters miss strikes since the start of 2019. He has had some injury issues this year, but he could be poised for a huge breakout season if he can stay healthy. Biggest question is what exactly do the White Sox need, if anything?

 

I actually expect Bloom to be looking at pitchers like this to fill out the rotation. Naturally, he will use a different (better?) analysis...

 

This is the type of move I see for next year. Nothing splashy, but enough to keep us competitive.

[oldtimer]

These are the types of deal I expect Bloom to be looking for.

 

I'm thinking it may take more than Beni to get Boyd, and we already have an OF shortage, but I like these ideas.

 

We have a shortage of Quality Outfielders. We have Verdugo and may try to keep JBJ on a team friendly contract. The question really is Beni still a quality outfielder going forward. If not, why would we want to keep him?

[moonslav59]

We have a shortage of Quality Outfielders. We have Verdugo and may try to keep JBJ on a team friendly contract. The question really is Beni still a quality outfielder going forward. If not, why would we want to keep him?

 

I'm not nor ever have been a big Beni fan. I merely pointed out our shortage of OF'ers.

 

I'd trade him for Boyd. It's easier to find an OF replacement than a pitcher with serious upside.

 

(I do think Beni rates to be better than Duran, Wilson and anyone else but Verdugo already on the roster for 2021. (Not saying much.)

[notin]

I'm not nor ever have been a big Beni fan. I merely pointed out our shortage of OF'ers.

 

I'd trade him for Boyd. It's easier to find an OF replacement than a pitcher with serious upside.

 

(I do think Beni rates to be better than Duran, Wilson and anyone else but Verdugo already on the roster for 2021. (Not saying much.)

 

Per BTV, Benintendi for Boyd is a moderate overpay for Detroit, but Benintendi for Reynaldo Lopez is an even trade. As the White Sox use Nomar Mazara as their third outfielder, Benintendi is an upgrade.

 

Duran is an option for CF, but Wilson strikes me as Michael Coleman 2.0...

[moonslav59]

Per BTV, Benintendi for Boyd is a moderate overpay for Detroit, but Benintendi for Reynaldo Lopez is an even trade. As the White Sox use Nomar Mazara as their third outfielder, Benintendi is an upgrade.

 

Duran is an option for CF, but Wilson strikes me as Michael Coleman 2.0...

 

It's easy to find Pillar type OF'ers. We might even try Chavis or Potts in LF.

 

We need a few guys like Boyd in hopes one or two work out.

[mvp 78]

Per BTV, Benintendi for Boyd is a moderate overpay for Detroit, but Benintendi for Reynaldo Lopez is an even trade. As the White Sox use Nomar Mazara as their third outfielder, Benintendi is an upgrade.

 

Duran is an option for CF, but Wilson strikes me as Michael Coleman 2.0...

 

Marcus Wilson is an up and down guy at best. If they need a short term filler in CF, they'll just grab a glove first guy in FA. LFers are also pretty easy to come by in FA.

[notin]

Marcus Wilson is an up and down guy at best. If they need a short term filler in CF, they'll just grab a glove first guy in FA. LFers are also pretty easy to come by in FA.

 

There will be several defensive CF types on the market. Bradley, Pillar, Taylor, Maybin, Marisnick, and Dyson are all going to be free agents, and you'll probably see others like Lagares. And there will be others who would not be difficult to trade for like Almora, Kiermaier, and Roman Quinn.

 

The LF market has one intriguing name in Ozuna, but if the Sox are only trying for a shorter term contract, Joc Pederson is another option (both of these guys also have plenty of experience in CF)...

[mvp 78]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that MLB and the MLBPA reached agreement late Monday night on a plan regarding the 2020 postseason.

An official announcement is expected on Tuesday. The Wild Card rounds of the playoffs are expected to take place at home ballparks, but there will be a bubble structure for the Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series. Per multiple previous reports, the ALDS will reportedly take place at Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles) and PETCO Park (San Diego) with the ALCS also taking place at PETCO. The NLDS will reportedly be played at Minute Maid Park (Houston) and Globe Life Field (Arlington) with the NLCS also taking place at Globe Life. The entire World Series is slated to occur at Globe Life Field, as well. Details were still being worked out as of a few days ago, but the goal of a bubble structure is to utilize stringent safety protocols to prevent a COVID-19 outbreak and ensure the completion of the 2020 season. Stay tuned.

[Nick]

I'm guessing Tanner Houck is not burning up his first year of team control by joining the club this late in the year. Looks like he could be a keeper.

 

Interesting read on how he's developed cutter as an alternative to change up as his third pitch. You can do tons of analysis to improve a pitcher but what I read always brings back to the pitcher himself. He's got to be able to execute what the pitching coaches wants you to do.

 

Some can, some just can't.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Nick

[mvp 78]

I'm guessing Tanner Houck is not burning up his first year of team control by joining the club this late in the year. Looks like he could be a keeper.

 

He was "fine" in Spring Training. Sox are unsure if he's a starter or bullpen guy going forward. Good chance to figure it out.

[mvp 78]

Maybe his new splitter will be more effective against LHH than his change was?

[Nick]

Noah Song should start his baseball career in 2022.

[Nick]

Maybe his new splitter will be more effective against LHH than his change was?

 

Apparently he didn't control the change inside the strike zone........never pitched in my life, all Greek to me.