A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I liked getting Verdugo. But I loved the deal when Graterol was involved.

 

But to be fair, Bloom did help make a very good pitching staff in Tampa. I just think he dropped tha ball here...

 

But as you found, Downs has a higher trade value than Graterol, so in theory he's a more valuable asset.

 

And it's not like having Graterol this year matters or not.

[notin]

Did he ever pick up the ball?

 

Not this time. Although he could deal Jeter Downs for a decent arm and it might work out...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Boston's track record of acquiring baseball personnel who've started their careers with Tampa has not been very good. Crawful, Priceless, and now Bloom. Although it's obviously too early to judge Bloom. Maybe the SOX should avoid Tampa like the plague.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, it was only for one year (actually 2 months) at much less money.

 

Technically. But as we now know, the Dodgers traded for Betts with the specific intent of making him the face of Hollywood for the next dozen seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

Boston's track record of acquiring baseball personnel who've started their careers with Tampa has not been very good. Crawful, Priceless, and now Bloom. Although it's obviously too early to judge Bloom. Maybe the SOX should avoid Tampa like the plague.

 

Ouch. Mind you, the end results with Crawful (Dodgers trade) and Price (2018 title) took some of the sting away.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Ouch. Mind you, the end results with Crawful (Dodgers trade) and Price (2018 title) took some of the sting away.

 

The Dodgers did the SOX a big favor 8 years ago and the SOX partially returned that favor with the Betts' deal.

[a700hitter]

Joe Kelly suspended for 8 games! That's like a 20 game suspension in a full season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Joe Kelly suspended for 8 games! That's like a 20 game suspension in a full season.

 

He hit zero batters. That's like hitting 0 X 2.4 in a regular season. Although his facial expressions round to 300 per year. Clear the benches!

 

Kelly aiming at Astros suggests three things: 1) he's a loyal Dodger; 2) he's still a loyal Red Sox, who lost to the trash-can bangers in the '17 playoffs; 3) he must be pretty confident his '18 champs did things clean.

[notin]

But as you found, Downs has a higher trade value than Graterol, so in theory he's a more valuable asset.

 

And it's not like having Graterol this year matters or not.

 

Yes by some measures Downs is a more valuable asset, but the Sox need Graterol or someone like him more.

 

Not sure why you think "this year" matters for the deal. Graterol would be controlled through the 2025 season...

[notin]

Boston's track record of acquiring baseball personnel who've started their careers with Tampa has not been very good. Crawful, Priceless, and now Bloom. Although it's obviously too early to judge Bloom. Maybe the SOX should avoid Tampa like the plague.

 

And Bloom is the worst hitter of the three!!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Bloom is the worst hitter of the three!!!!

 

But he (or his org) hit on Nick Anderson, the best reliever in the second half of '19. Then again, he whiffed on cutting Daniel Hudson, who closed out the Nats' World Series win.

 

Relievers aren't too mercurial. Did I say ephemeral?

[moonslav59]

Technically. But as we now know, the Dodgers traded for Betts with the specific intent of making him the face of Hollywood for the next dozen seasons.

 

Agreed, but we also know we were never going to sign him, so we ended up losing 2+ months of Betts in a hopeless season with no fans at the games for a pretty good return, despite not getting any arms.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes by some measures Downs is a more valuable asset, but the Sox need Graterol or someone like him more.

 

Not sure why you think "this year" matters for the deal. Graterol would be controlled through the 2025 season...

 

I understand that Graterol is controlled through 2025. But of course this year matters, they all matter.

 

And as you said, Downs could be traded for a reliever between now and 2021.

 

Pretty simple.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox lineup is solid. Having a stud like Downs in the wings likely locks down 2b long term. You don’t lose much when JBJ falls off after the year. The problem isn’t the lineup. The Sox have scored 32 runs in 6 games.

 

For those of you thinking the Sox pitching will return to glory next year, my question is “how”?

 

Sale will be post TJS. His surgery was in March. Most starters aren’t the same until 15-18 months post procedure (relievers seem to come back sooner). That’s best case June of 2021 and worst case September.

 

ERod is an answer, but seriously, I only hope he returns to being able to play. Myocarditis is no joke.

 

Eovaldi has looked good for 2 starts, and as I’ve said before, this is Nate. Solid for a month, absolutely awful got a month. And he’s no marathon warrior in terms of health.

 

Beyond those 3, there’s nothing on the farm that even resembles depth and losing a year of development is crushing. The best thing Bloom can hope for is he finds on rotation diamond in the rough to stick in the back of the 2021 rotation. But it’s never easy to build a rotation from the outside with just money. Most of the time you fail. It’s rare to see it hit (like the Yanks did in 09, but not long term).

 

My bet is Bloom deals for pitching prospects this year and maybe he even swings a Downs for top 100 pitching prospect deal. He’s known to move guys after their debuts or even before. And he hits when he does

Edited July 30, 2020 by jacksonianmarch

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox lineup is solid. Having a stud like Downs in the wings likely locks down 2b long term. You don’t lose much when JBJ falls off after the year. The problem isn’t the lineup. The Sox have scored 32 runs in 6 games.

 

For those of you thinking the Sox pitching will return to glory next year, my question is “how”?

 

Sale will be post TJS. His surgery was in March. Most starters aren’t the same until 15-18 months post procedure (relievers seem to come back sooner). That’s best case June of 2021 and worst case September.

 

ERod is an answer, but seriously, I only hope he returns to being able to play. Myocarditis is no joke.

 

Eovaldi has looked good for 2 starts, and as I’ve said before, this is Nate. Solid for a month, absolutely awful got a month. And he’s no marathon warrior in terms of health.

 

Beyond those 3, there’s nothing on the farm that even resembles depth and losing a year of development is crushing. The best thing Bloom can hope for is he finds on rotation diamond in the rough to stick in the back of the 2021 rotation. But it’s never easy to build a rotation from the outside with just money. Most of the time you fail. It’s rare to see it hit (like the Yanks did in 09, but not long term).

 

My bet is Bloom deals for pitching prospects this year and maybe he even swings a Downs for top 100 pitching prospect deal. He’s known to move guys after their debuts or even before. And he hits when he does

 

Not much to disagree with.

[mvp 78]

Yes by some measures Downs is a more valuable asset, but the Sox need Graterol or someone like him more.

 

Not sure why you think "this year" matters for the deal. Graterol would be controlled through the 2025 season...

 

If the Sox really wanted Graterol, they would have taken him. It seems like they value what Downs brings to the table. It's a question of long term stability at 2b or a volatile reliever.

[mvp 78]

The Sox lineup is solid. Having a stud like Downs in the wings likely locks down 2b long term. You don’t lose much when JBJ falls off after the year. The problem isn’t the lineup. The Sox have scored 32 runs in 6 games.

 

For those of you thinking the Sox pitching will return to glory next year, my question is “how”?

 

Sale will be post TJS. His surgery was in March. Most starters aren’t the same until 15-18 months post procedure (relievers seem to come back sooner). That’s best case June of 2021 and worst case September.

 

ERod is an answer, but seriously, I only hope he returns to being able to play. Myocarditis is no joke.

 

Eovaldi has looked good for 2 starts, and as I’ve said before, this is Nate. Solid for a month, absolutely awful got a month. And he’s no marathon warrior in terms of health.

 

Beyond those 3, there’s nothing on the farm that even resembles depth and losing a year of development is crushing. The best thing Bloom can hope for is he finds on rotation diamond in the rough to stick in the back of the 2021 rotation. But it’s never easy to build a rotation from the outside with just money. Most of the time you fail. It’s rare to see it hit (like the Yanks did in 09, but not long term).

 

My bet is Bloom deals for pitching prospects this year and maybe he even swings a Downs for top 100 pitching prospect deal. He’s known to move guys after their debuts or even before. And he hits when he does

 

Depends on what your definition of "glory" is. I think they could have an average rotation next year, but seem to have a lot of work to do in the bullpen (which was a strength last year).

[notin]

I understand that Graterol is controlled through 2025. But of course this year matters, they all matter.

 

And as you said, Downs could be traded for a reliever between now and 2021.

 

Pretty simple.

 

Sure Downs could be traded. But a bird in the hand.

 

Hey I’ve been saying on here for months that I liked the deal better with Graterol...

[jacksonianmarch]

Downs is worth far more than Graterol. From a value standpoint, the Sox did better with the deal they got. But now it’s about maximizing your pitching.

 

It seems pitchers are far more difficult nowadays to get on the open market. Good to great pitchers know they’re one injury away from being done, so they take the extensions offered early in their major league careers and sacrifice long term potential income for the security of guaranteed income.

 

So you’re either getting a pitcher who bucks the trend for their first big contract at extreme dollars (Cole) or a pitcher with lots of miles on their tread for their post extension contract and you risk paying for pst performance.

 

This is why the development of pitching or the dealing from a strong farm is so key. Having money to throw around helps too.

[jad]

Grater-... and ... what's the other guy? (Gosh, remember when we were talking about Mookie, Price, Porcello? ...)

[jacksonianmarch]

Grater-... and ... what's the other guy? (Gosh, remember when we were talking about Mookie, Price, Porcello? ...)

 

If Verdugo can grow up a bit, he could really be a good hitter. I see him almost as a Beni type. .300 20HR type player

[notin]

The Sox lineup is solid. Having a stud like Downs in the wings likely locks down 2b long term.

 

 

Jeter Downs has played 12 games above A ball in his career. The “stud” talk might be premature. There’s no guarantee he ever even plays Major League Baseball, let alone locks anything down for years...

[mvp 78]

Downs is worth far more than Graterol. From a value standpoint, the Sox did better with the deal they got. But now it’s about maximizing your pitching.

 

It seems pitchers are far more difficult nowadays to get on the open market. Good to great pitchers know they’re one injury away from being done, so they take the extensions offered early in their major league careers and sacrifice long term potential income for the security of guaranteed income.

 

So you’re either getting a pitcher who bucks the trend for their first big contract at extreme dollars (Cole) or a pitcher with lots of miles on their tread for their post extension contract and you risk paying for pst performance.

 

This is why the development of pitching or the dealing from a strong farm is so key. Having money to throw around helps too.

 

Which they didn't have last offseason.

[mvp 78]

Jeter Downs has played 12 games above A ball in his career. The “stud” talk might be premature. There’s no guarantee he ever even plays Major League Baseball, let alone locks anything down for years...

 

The Sox seemed to like Downs' guaranteed future over Graterol's health issues.

[notin]

Downs is worth far more than Graterol. From a value standpoint, the Sox did better with the deal they got. But now it’s about maximizing your pitching.

 

It seems pitchers are far more difficult nowadays to get on the open market. Good to great pitchers know they’re one injury away from being done, so they take the extensions offered early in their major league careers and sacrifice long term potential income for the security of guaranteed income.

 

So you’re either getting a pitcher who bucks the trend for their first big contract at extreme dollars (Cole) or a pitcher with lots of miles on their tread for their post extension contract and you risk paying for pst performance.

 

This is why the development of pitching or the dealing from a strong farm is so key. Having money to throw around helps too.

 

Most of your post actually makes a better case that Graterol is more valuable than Downs.

 

Also, Major Leaguers are more valuable than players with 12 games above A ball...

[notin]

The Sox seemed to like Downs' guaranteed future over Graterol's health issues.

 

Yeah I got the health part. But what exactly is Downs’ “guaranteed future”?

[mvp 78]

Yeah I got the health part. But what exactly is Downs’ “guaranteed future”?

 

You're the one who used "guarantee." I was just responding to that.

[mvp 78]

There's no guarantee that Graterol doesn't take a nap with his kid and wake up with a permanently damaged shoulder, take out the trash and cut his hand up or f*** up his back trying to put cowboy boots on.

[notin]

You're the one who used "guarantee." I was just responding to that.

 

 

Yeah but I used it in a negative sense. My words were “there’s no guarantee....”

 

I get that Graterol’s health scared them, but the Sox need pitching anywhere they can get it. And these Robert Stock types from the waiver wire are not likely to be the cure.

 

Obviously Bloom does have way more knowledge about it than me. He has reviewed the medical data and probably gone over it with doctors. Heck, if you handed me Graterol’s medical file, the only thing I could make from it is a fleet of paper airplanes.

 

But I still liked the idea of getting a badly needed pitcher. And a pitcher who can hit 100 made it even cooler...

[mvp 78]

If he had a starter profile, they make that deal regardless of the health concerns. The fact that he's most likely limited to the pen (where yearly performance is highly volatile), maybe makes a prospect with the upside of everyday MLB 2b a little more valuable?

 

Yes, they need pitching today, but I don't think they made that trade for what the team would look like this year or next.