A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[oldtimer]

Farm system, farm system, farm system. A team can do so much without the huge contracts and has so much flexibility if it has that strong foundation to build from.

 

Absolutely. A team needs to draw from the farm team every year so needs assets that can make the transition every year in order to stay within the competitive value tax guidelines. I haven't done a study on the average turnover rate of the team's roster, but I assume at least 3 new faces need to transition from the farm per year along with free agents and trades to keep the team viable and keep the payroll reasonable. Dombrowski didn't seem to have that in mind and the impact may be felt on a longer term basis. The win now without considering the long term consequences may be acceptable to some fans, but not to me.

[Tedballgame]

Absolutely. A team needs to draw from the farm team every year so needs assets that can make the transition every year in order to stay within the competitive value tax guidelines. I haven't done a study on the average turnover rate of the team's roster, but I assume at least 3 new faces need to transition from the farm per year along with free agents and trades to keep the team viable and keep the payroll reasonable. Dombrowski didn't seem to have that in mind and the impact may be felt on a longer term basis. The win now without considering the long term consequences may be acceptable to some fans, but not to me.

 

I am happy if they win 4 in 12 years and are competitive in most of the other years. Heck, I am happy if they win 4/12 years and suck the rest of the time. WS Championships are to be cherished.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Farm system, farm system, farm system. A team can do so much without the huge contracts and has so much flexibility if it has that strong foundation to build from.

 

Agree, agree, agree -- Epstein and co. hit big on the 2014 draft (I ate up that Speier book, btw) -- but when has current ownership never built around free agent signings?

 

Who are the true success stories? I got Papi, Millar, Foulke, uh... JD. I'm not counting homegrown talent that re-signed or trade acquisitions who were available because of impending big money (like Pedro, Schilling, Beckett/Lowell). Now, what about the flops -- and that includes guys who helped win rings, but were either vastly overpaid or hated playing for Red Sox Nation: Renteria, Lugo, Drews, DiceK, Crawford, Hanley, Sandoval, and Price. What other big names with big contracts am I missing?

 

If Henry and Werner are suddenly going to change their ways -- ones that flew four flags over Fenway (alliterally) -- then we diehards could be in trouble.

[Kimmi]

Absolutely. A team needs to draw from the farm team every year so needs assets that can make the transition every year in order to stay within the competitive value tax guidelines. I haven't done a study on the average turnover rate of the team's roster, but I assume at least 3 new faces need to transition from the farm per year along with free agents and trades to keep the team viable and keep the payroll reasonable. Dombrowski didn't seem to have that in mind and the impact may be felt on a longer term basis. The win now without considering the long term consequences may be acceptable to some fans, but not to me.

 

Once again Oldtimer, I completely agree with you. I very much dislike the 'win now at any cost' philosophy. I am thankful for 2018, but I hate what we did to our farm in the process.

[Kimmi]

I am happy if they win 4 in 12 years and are competitive in most of the other years. Heck, I am happy if they win 4/12 years and suck the rest of the time. WS Championships are to be cherished.

 

It should be possible to win WS Championships and remain contenders the other years.

[Kimmi]

Agree, agree, agree -- Epstein and co. hit big on the 2014 draft (I ate up that Speier book, btw) -- but when has current ownership never built around free agent signings?

 

Who are the true success stories? I got Papi, Millar, Foulke, uh... JD. I'm not counting homegrown talent that re-signed or trade acquisitions who were available because of impending big money (like Pedro, Schilling, Beckett/Lowell). Now, what about the flops -- and that includes guys who helped win rings, but were either vastly overpaid or hated playing for Red Sox Nation: Renteria, Lugo, Drews, DiceK, Crawford, Hanley, Sandoval, and Price. What other big names with big contracts am I missing?

 

If Henry and Werner are suddenly going to change their ways -- ones that flew four flags over Fenway (alliterally) -- then we diehards could be in trouble.

 

The ingrained philosophy of both Theo and Ben was to build around the farm, then fill in the holes through free agency or trade. Not the other way around. It's not possible to have a team of all home grown players, unfortunately. So yes, the Sox have always signed free agents, sometimes against the better judgment of Theo and Ben, but it's a necessarily evil. But the farm comes first.

[Bellhorn04]

It should be possible to win WS Championships and remain contenders the other years.

 

Which team in the 21st century has been able to do so?

[Kimmi]

Which team in the 21st century has been able to do so?

 

The Red Sox, until Dombrowski came along.

 

Seriously though, I 100% believe it should be possible. I have said many times that since the Henry era began, I have felt that, going into the season, the Sox were legitimate contenders every year. That doesn't mean that it always works out on the field, but I have not started any season thinking that the Sox were not a contender.

 

If 2020 were a regular 162 game season, this might be that year.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox, until Dombrowski came along.

 

Seriously though, I 100% believe it should be possible. I have said many times that since the Henry era began, I have felt that, going into the season, the Sox were legitimate contenders every year. That doesn't mean that it always works out on the field, but I have not started any season thinking that the Sox were not a contender.

 

If 2020 were a regular 162 game season, this might be that year.

 

Especially because they haven't signed Clay.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox, until Dombrowski came along.

 

Seriously though, I 100% believe it should be possible. I have said many times that since the Henry era began, I have felt that, going into the season, the Sox were legitimate contenders every year. That doesn't mean that it always works out on the field, but I have not started any season thinking that the Sox were not a contender.

 

If 2020 were a regular 162 game season, this might be that year.

 

Uh, how many LAST DAMN PLACE seasons did Ben have again?

[oldtimer]

The Red Sox, until Dombrowski came along.

 

Seriously though, I 100% believe it should be possible. I have said many times that since the Henry era began, I have felt that, going into the season, the Sox were legitimate contenders every year. That doesn't mean that it always works out on the field, but I have not started any season thinking that the Sox were not a contender.

 

If 2020 were a regular 162 game season, this might be that year.

 

There are issues with being able to construct and maintain a minor league program capable of feeding the major league team with a few good players each year. The main issue that I see is the draft choices successful teams acquire are later selections. That means the selectors must be wise and the development team must be first class. It also means that clubs avoid trading away top prospects without getting great value in return. Finally, it should be a goal to avoid further penalties associated with the competitive balance tax. It comes down to having a high quality management.

 

Luck also plays a part. Sore arms, illnesses and bouncing balls can change the fortune of a team, but a sound approach should provide the best result overall. Forgive my use of bolded print as it is easier for me to read these days.

[oldtimer]

Agree, agree, agree -- Epstein and co. hit big on the 2014 draft (I ate up that Speier book, btw) -- but when has current ownership never built around free agent signings?

 

Who are the true success stories? I got Papi, Millar, Foulke, uh... JD. I'm not counting homegrown talent that re-signed or trade acquisitions who were available because of impending big money (like Pedro, Schilling, Beckett/Lowell). Now, what about the flops -- and that includes guys who helped win rings, but were either vastly overpaid or hated playing for Red Sox Nation: Renteria, Lugo, Drews, DiceK, Crawford, Hanley, Sandoval, and Price. What other big names with big contracts am I missing?

 

If Henry and Werner are suddenly going to change their ways -- ones that flew four flags over Fenway (alliterally) -- then we diehards could be in trouble.

 

I also believe Pedey's contract was unwise, although he was well loved by the fans. When sentimentality gets involved, better opportunities are lost. A club can't be as successful when management tosses away budget room on a bad bet.

[jad]

I also believe Pedey's contract was unwise, although he was well loved by the fans. When sentimentality gets involved, better opportunities are lost. A club can't be as successful when management tosses away budget room on a bad bet.

 

If he had stayed healthy, it would have been a bargain (big IF, I know. But few contracts are written withthe assumption of a career-ending injury).

 

Meanwhile, Bellhorn, I think you have the advantage on our bet. But I haven't given up.

[mvp 78]

I also believe Pedey's contract was unwise, although he was well loved by the fans. When sentimentality gets involved, better opportunities are lost. A club can't be as successful when management tosses away budget room on a bad bet.

 

I agree 100%.

[Bellhorn04]

I also believe Pedey's contract was unwise, although he was well loved by the fans. When sentimentality gets involved, better opportunities are lost. A club can't be as successful when management tosses away budget room on a bad bet.

 

Pedey's contract was not based on sentimentality. It was supposedly at a discount.

 

But maybe it's your position that no long term contracts should ever be given.

[mvp 78]

Pedey's contract was not based on sentimentality. It was supposedly at a discount.

 

But maybe it's your position that no long term contracts should ever be given.

 

Supposedly at a discount even though when it was signed it was the largest 2b contract in the game.

[Bellhorn04]

Supposedly at a discount even though when it was signed it was the largest 2b contract in the game.

 

Correct.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Supposedly at a discount even though when it was signed it was the largest 2b contract in the game.

 

... but basically half of the next contract of Cano, who was the other top second baseman at the time. Like I said before, you're not signing a really good MLB player unless it's with a long-term offer.

 

Do we want to become an Oakland or Tampa, with rotating lineups every other year? As much success as they've had, how many postseason series has either won this century? And as a fan, I'm not really interested in rooting for rosters with constant turnover.

 

Big money clubs had an advantage when they could outspend others on the most and best scouts, and stockpile prospects, but rules have changed. Like oldtimer points out, perennial contenders aren't getting top draft picks like the also-rans; thus, we have more tanking. Kimmi's model of augmenting homegrown clubs with a free agent (or impending free agent) is ideal; then again, how many Astro-type teams -- where lots of last places equal lots of No. 1 picks -- have found the missing Verlander to get them over the top?

 

Dombrowski traded the farm to build a world champ -- and some Sox fans are still mad about it. But he did what he was hired to do: keep the young star group intact, and supplement them with veteran pieces by dealing from minor league depth. Bloom has a weaker core and little depth, so don't be surprised if he swaps what's left of the former for more of the latter. And be prepared to be patient...

[dgalehouse]

Bottom line : Ben in four years :One championship and three last place finishes.. Dombrowski in four years :One championship, an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles and one third place finish. As for the farm ; other than Moncada , which traded prospects were really any good ?

[Bellhorn04]

Bottom line : Ben in four years :One championship and three last place finishes.. Dombrowski in four years :One championship, an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles and one third place finish. As for the farm ; other than Moncada , which traded prospects were really any good ?

 

The jury is still out on some guys: Kopech, Ty Buttrey, Logan Allen, and others.

 

Looks like we're gonna do this debate all over again. Ya-hoo!

[dgalehouse]

The jury is still out on some guys: Kopech, Ty Buttrey, Logan Allen, and others.

 

Looks like we're gonna do this debate all over again. Ya-hoo!

 

That jury has been out for a long time . A lot of good things have happened in the meantime. But I have no intention of doing this debate again .

[Bellhorn04]

That jury has been out for a long time . A lot of good things have happened in the meantime. But I have no intention of doing this debate again .

 

Too late, you just did.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Too late, you just did.

 

How about what's to come next? How many position players from the '18 champs will still be Red Sox in '21? I'd say only Devers and Bogaerts are sure bets...

[dgalehouse]

Too late, you just did.

 

I like to start a debate and then walk away . Let others fight it out .

[mvp 78]

How about what's to come next? How many position players from the '18 champs will still be Red Sox in '21? I'd say only Devers and Bogaerts are sure bets...

 

JD

Vaz

[Bellhorn04]

JD

Vaz

 

Beni's not a sure bet, but not exactly a long shot.

[mvp 78]

Even money on Moreland since he keeps turning up like a bad penny.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Beni's not a sure bet, but not exactly a long shot.

 

I hope they're still here, but if Boston hits rock bottom and Bloom goes full rebuild, Beni and Vaz at their salaries may never be worth more on the market in actual prospect return or as part of a package for not-yet-primetime MLBers. In the same sense, I can see Bloom dealing JD -- who could opt out now that DH is universal -- to a team looking for a big bat in the stretch run... if they're willing to give up a decent future arm from their #41-60 man roster.

[Tedballgame]

I have to admit that after watching a couple of exhibition games on MLB, it wasn't that bad. The piped in fan noise was ok. I will watch it. I will watch hockey. I am done with the NBA. Jury is still out on watching the NFL but fantasy league will probably keep me watching. Not during National Anthem though.

[Kimmi]

Especially because they haven't signed Clay.

 

I don't know what Bloom is waiting for. LOL