A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[mvp 78]

The idea of them trading Devers on top of trading Mookie is unspeakably absurd.

 

Horrible.

[notin]

1. Sure

2. Not a chance. Verdugo brought enough baggage of his own.

 

Puig is crazy, but he’s also crazy good.

 

He’s played in the postseason almost every year of his career, so he isn’t dragging his team down. And the one year he missed, he ended the season on a 93 win team that traded its ace in July (for him)...

[moonslav59]

Trading Devers in not realistic. Take it to another thread, please.

[notin]

It is.

 

I think the Sox should do the following

 

1. Sign Collin McHugh

2. Sign Yasiel Puig. (You don't get knocked off the Puig Bandwagon by Kevin Pillar.)

 

 

I think the Myers-style "prospect buys are nice, but most of the other contracts in the same position come with mediocre to bad farm systems attached, or teams unwilling to move the payers in them.

 

If I could move Dalbec for pitching depth (Atlanta?), I do it. He's blocked anyway...

 

Actually I'd rather sign Puig than McHugh

 

If there is any truth to the "spin rate" rumors and illegal substances the Astros gave to pitchers, McHugh is a prime beneficiary.

 

And there very well might be. Cole is not the only pitcher to suddenly show drastic improvement in Houston. Charlie Morton also did, and Justin Verlander not only stopped trending in the wrong direction, he practically reset his career. Name one other pitcher in MLB history who had the three lowest WHIPs of their career at ages 34, 35 and 36. (OK, the universal answer to every late bloomer pitching question is Warren Spahn, who was actually older, but his best 3 WHIPs were not so clustered, as they were at ages 32, 35, and 42.)

 

Know who comes closest? Charlie Morton, who best 3 WHIPs were at ages 33,34, and 35. And what else do Verlander and Morton have in common?

 

Long story shorter: Astros clearly cheated everywhere. Avoid Collin McHugh...

[Station 13]

Trading Devers in not realistic. Take it to another thread, please.

 

It's blasphemy to even bring up.

[moonslav59]

It's blasphemy to even bring up.

 

My fingers still hurt hours after typing it.

[notin]

It's blasphemy to even bring up.

 

It was only brought up negatively.

 

It started out as Larry suggesting getting a Braves’ pitching prospect or two. And the only player Boston has they would want us Devers. I ran a couple simulations, but recommended against them both in the same post.

 

The unspoken point was “forget about getting their pitching”...

[oldmaninthevegasdesert]

Trading Devers in not realistic. Take it to another thread, please.

 

Yeah I second that one, RedSox Nation would down the ballyard

[Kimmi]

The idea of them trading Devers on top of trading Mookie is unspeakably absurd.

 

The Sox are not trading Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox are not trading Devers.

 

I'm confident on that point as well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox are not trading Devers.

 

Not now. He's arguably their best player, and they already dealt their former best player this offseason.

 

But in notin's defense, a few months back I also suggested a similar deal as the best way to add legitimate pitching prospects; after all, one year of Betts only got us LA's most expendable position prospects. Of course, my only contingency in ever trading Devers is if that meant that Betts had agreed to a lifetime extension. Even then, say we acquired the Braves' top three prospects -- they're all just that: prospects. Devers led the majors in extra base hits at age 22.

 

Will Rafie continue to star for the next half decade in Boston like Mookie did through age 26? Hope so, but that's a lofty expectation, since Betts's career WAR in RF through age 26 is the greatest in baseball history.

 

I agree that Dalbec should be swapped for a young arm with potential. He's blocked at third, has never profiled as a .300 hitter like Devers, and is also blocked at first down the road by Casas, the top power prospect in the Sox' system.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather trade Chavis than Dalbec.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.”

[Larry Cook]

It was only brought up negatively.

 

It started out as Larry suggesting getting a Braves’ pitching prospect or two. And the only player Boston has they would want us Devers. I ran a couple simulations, but recommended against them both in the same post.

 

The unspoken point was “forget about getting their pitching”...

 

Just for the record, I did not suggest we should trade devers in this post.

 

If hang’em Chaim could pawn (sale and his soon to snap ucl) off on the braves for some prime time pitching prospects, that would be a huge win for us!

[Larry Cook]

It was only brought up negatively.

 

It started out as Larry suggesting getting a Braves’ pitching prospect or two. And the only player Boston has they would want us Devers. I ran a couple simulations, but recommended against them both in the same post.

 

The unspoken point was “forget about getting their pitching”...

 

Just for the record, I did not suggest we should trade devers in this post.

 

If hang’em Chaim could pawn sale (and his soon to snap ucl) off on the braves for some prime time pitching prospects, that would be a huge win for us!

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

 

It’s been an unorthodox spring in so many ways in Red Sox camp, so it should surprise no one that the team’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is hosting a Socratic seminar of sorts on Sunday. The subject: How to use an opener.

[Bellhorn04]

Just for the record, I did not suggest we should trade devers in this post.

 

If hang’em Chaim could pawn sale (and his soon to snap ucl) off on the braves for some prime time pitching prospects, that would be a huge win for us!

 

Unlikely scenario Lar. Maybe you'll just have to do what a normal human being would, and hope Sale is healthy.

[notin]

Just for the record, I did not suggest we should trade devers in this post.

 

If hang’em Chaim could pawn sale (and his soon to snap ucl) off on the braves for some prime time pitching prospects, that would be a huge win for us!

 

 

But see, unless you have something the Braves want, they’re not going to trade their pitching.

 

Right now the Braves are loaded most everywhere with talent under control. Their roster weaknesses are all shored up by top prospects below.

 

Except at 3b.

 

If they liked Dalbec, things might be good. But so far, they’ve shown no interest.

 

They’re free agent interests at the position we’re names like Donaldson and Rendon. High end talent.

 

I’d guess no possibility for a deal.

 

If the Sox need to trade for SP, their most tradable commodity is Dalbec. Teams like Miami and Kansas City should be interested. And Miami is flush with MLB starting pitching...

[Kimmi]

Not now. He's arguably their best player, and they already dealt their former best player this offseason.

 

But in notin's defense, a few months back I also suggested a similar deal as the best way to add legitimate pitching prospects; after all, one year of Betts only got us LA's most expendable position prospects. Of course, my only contingency in ever trading Devers is if that meant that Betts had agreed to a lifetime extension. Even then, say we acquired the Braves' top three prospects -- they're all just that: prospects. Devers led the majors in extra base hits at age 22.

 

Will Rafie continue to star for the next half decade in Boston like Mookie did through age 26? Hope so, but that's a lofty expectation, since Betts's career WAR in RF through age 26 is the greatest in baseball history.

 

I agree that Dalbec should be swapped for a young arm with potential. He's blocked at third, has never profiled as a .300 hitter like Devers, and is also blocked at first down the road by Casas, the top power prospect in the Sox' system.

 

Any player is subject to being traded if the trade makes enough sense. If the return for Devers was so overwhelming that the Sox just couldn't refuse, then it would be stupid for them not to trade him. I don't see them getting that kind of offer though.

 

To trade a young, cost-controlled player of Devers' caliber for young pitching, creating a huge hole to fill another, doesn't make much sense.

 

I don't expect Devers to match Mookie's production. As you said, that is a rather lofty expectation. That said, Devers produced an fWAR of 5.9 in his age 22 season, while Mookie produced an fWAR of 4.8 in his age 22 season. One season does not an All-Star make, but needless to say, Devers has a lot of promise.

[Kimmi]

MLBTR...

 

Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.”

 

I hope Bloom is right about this. His peripherals do suggest that he should have gotten slightly better results than he has, but hopefully Bloom and team have something more to go on, which I'm sure they do.

 

It's cool that he would have taken less money to join the Sox over the Rays.

[moonslav59]

I can't believe it's March already. We are just weeks from opening day!

 

Despite all our troubles and and high need areas, I'm excited about watching the Sox this coming year.

[Kimmi]

@jcmccaffrey

 

It’s been an unorthodox spring in so many ways in Red Sox camp, so it should surprise no one that the team’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is hosting a Socratic seminar of sorts on Sunday. The subject: How to use an opener.

 

Bloom's next Socratic seminar needs to be on "How to construct a line up". Roenicke is talking about batting JD in the #3 hole. That said, I will give Roenicke credit for wanting to bat Devers second.

[Kimmi]

I can't believe it's March already. We are just weeks from opening day!

 

Despite all our troubles and and high need areas, I'm excited about watching the Sox this coming year.

 

The offseasons are always far too long, but not too much longer!

 

Someone needs to start a 2020 Red Sox wins projection poll.

[Kimmi]

In the meantime, here are the projections from three of my most followed projections systems:

 

PECOTA: Red Sox are projected to win 84.4 games and finish in 3rd in the division behind the Yankees (98.3) and the Rays (87.4). They are projected to be the 7th best team in the AL, which leaves them on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

 

Fangraphs: Red Sox are projected to win 87 games and finish in 3rd in the division behind the Yankees (93) and the Rays (90). They are projected to be tied with the Athletics for the 5th spot in the AL, battling for the 2nd WC spot.

 

Davenport: Red Sox are projected to win 85 games and finish in 3rd in the division behind the Yankees (97) and the Rays (90). They are projected to be tied with the Angels as the 6th best team in the AL, which would leave them just shy of the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

Chaim Bloom hosted a meeting with his coaches and staff this morning on the nuances of how to use the opener.

 

"I’ve talked to him quite a bit about this (opener) and I still learned things today that I needed to know," Ron Roenicke said.

[mvp 78]

The offseasons are always far too long, but not too much longer!

 

Someone needs to start a 2020 Red Sox wins projection poll.

 

Go for it.

[Kimmi]

Go for it.

 

I am neither a poll nor a thread starter.

 

I nominate you.

[moonslav59]

Sale throws....

 

Chris Sale throws live BP session

WWW.MLB.COM

---

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- As the ball towered off the bat of Red Sox prospect Josh Ockimey and crashed off the netting beyond the right-field fence, ace Chris Sale dead-panned, “I guess we’ll end on that one.” Behind the batting cage, where just about the entire Boston pitching staff huddled

[moonslav59]

Good to see Eovaldi look good, today and all spring. Edited March 1, 2020 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Good to see Eovaldi look good, today and all spring.

 

His cutter is back! Makes his entire pitching arsenal that much more dangerous.