Opening Day lineup.... and roster spots

[SCM33]

the odds are much better now that we reset.

 

Odds would have been higher had they figured out a way to keep the second best player in baseball instead of JBJ, Eovaldi, Benintendi and Martin Perez.

[S5Dewey]

In theory, Chavis could platoon at 1B, and if he doesn't work out, we have Dalbec. It's then one position we have 2 ML ready young players/prospects.

 

I agree, JD should never play OF, except at NL parks, and even then, I'd schedule all his rest days there, if possible.

 

We need pitching for 2021 and beyond, and also for 2020, so that should be our main focus for a trade.

 

A RH'd OF'er would be nice. If we stay well below the luxury tax, we could bring up Castillo for a partial year- his last season of control.

 

Doesn't that make his entire salary subject to the LT though?

[Donnie Sadler was short]

I didn't think Chavis had the mobility to play 2B, either. I'm still not sure he does.

 

We still lack starting pitcher depth- just like last year.

 

Here is what we have within the system- not counting who we might get as part of the Betts trade:

(*opener?)

Hector Velazquez

Brian Johnson

*D Hernandez

*Ryan Weber

*Tanner Houck

Mike Shawaryn

Kyle Hart

Daniel McGrath

Bryan Mata AA

Denyi Reyes AA

 

Not an inspiring list.

 

 

 

 

I would sooner see Henry Owens than Johnson or Velasquez!!!!

[moonslav59]

Doesn't that make his entire salary subject to the LT though?

 

Hard to know. He's a special case. His AVV is $10.3M, but his actual salary is over $14M.

 

If we wait until June or July, only a pro-rated amount counts.

[notin]

Hard to know. He's a special case. His AVV is $10.3M, but his actual salary is over $14M.

 

If we wait until June or July, only a pro-rated amount counts.

 

His salary is paid no matter if he is in Boston, Pawtucket or on the Long Island Ducks. But if he comes up, he counts towards the tax per his $10.3 mill AAV. Just like Wil Myers makes $22.7mill this year, but if the Sox acquired him he would only count as $13.8 mill towards the luxury tax. That was his only appealing quality...

[S5Dewey]

His salary is paid no matter if he is in Boston, Pawtucket or on the Long Island Ducks. But if he comes up, he counts towards the tax per his $10.3 mill AAV. Just like Wil Myers makes $22.7mill this year, but if the Sox acquired him he would only count as $13.8 mill towards the luxury tax. That was his only appealing quality...

 

So for LT purposes he has essentially the same effect as JBJ - only he'd be getting more money than JBJ with an OPS about .035 higher. I haven't seen him play so I can't rate his defense but could he be an option for RF for a team that's not going anyplace anyway?

[Bellhorn04]

So for LT purposes he has essentially the same effect as JBJ - only he'd be getting more money than JBJ with an OPS about .035 higher. I haven't seen him play so I can't rate his defense but could he be an option for RF for a team that's not going anyplace anyway?

 

Castillo is an option, but I'm hoping the money goes toward pitching.

[moonslav59]

Castillo is an option, but I'm hoping the money goes toward pitching.

 

If we get a pitcher, depending on his AVV, we might be able to call Castillo up in June or July at the prorated price.

[Bellhorn04]

If we get a pitcher, depending on his AVV, we might be able to call Castillo up in June or July at the prorated price.

 

I'm not sure there's prorating in this (highly unusual) case.

[notin]

So for LT purposes he has essentially the same effect as JBJ - only he'd be getting more money than JBJ with an OPS about .035 higher. I haven't seen him play so I can't rate his defense but could he be an option for RF for a team that's not going anyplace anyway?

 

Limited sample size defensive metrics were off the chart. Also potentially not representative...

[notin]

Castillo is an option, but I'm hoping the money goes toward pitching.

 

Exactly. The Sox need to replace the IP from Price...

[Slasher9]

Odds would have been higher had they figured out a way to keep the second best player in baseball instead of JBJ, Eovaldi, Benintendi and Martin Perez.

 

so you think if he stayed in Boston his final arb year - Mookie would have given Boston a "hometown discount" and signed a LTC with the Red Sox for less then someone else offers in FA next offseason? i don't.

i am of the opinion that Mookie will play for whatever team offers him the bigge$$$t contract in FA.

if the Potros de Tijuana or the Hiroshima Toyo Carp offer a larger contract you can bet the farm on Mookie being assigned a translator.....

[Slasher9]

Castillo is an option, but I'm hoping the money goes toward pitching.

 

this. but if we are lost season i would definitely bring him up in July and see what he can do at the MLB level. he could be a very cheap OFer option for the next 3 seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

so you think if he stayed in Boston his final arb year - Mookie would have given Boston a "hometown discount" and signed a LTC with the Red Sox for less then someone else offers in FA next offseason? i don't.

i am of the opinion that Mookie will play for whatever team offers him the bigge$$$t contract in FA.

if the Potros de Tijuana or the Hiroshima Toyo Carp offer a larger contract you can bet the farm on Mookie being assigned a translator.....

 

I really hope that's not exactly the way Mookie thinks.

 

I think he's hoping the Sox, Dodgers and another team or two get in a bidding war and he can pick and choose where he plays out his career and collects his $400 mill.

[S5Dewey]

Limited sample size defensive metrics were off the chart. Also potentially not representative...

 

Then he's a JBJ clone. $$-wise there's no point in replacing JBJ with him but he sounds like a nice candidate for RF. He's Mookie minus the offense but $20M cheaper.

 

Or.. he might be trade bait for a team looking for an outstanding defensive OF'er.

[mvp 78]

Castillo is an option, but I'm hoping the money goes toward pitching.

 

I can't wait for his contract to end this fall. If Castillo was good enough, he'd be up here by now.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure there's prorating in this (highly unusual) case.

 

I don't know, for sure, but it makes sense there would be. If not, Castillo could file a grievance.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. The Sox need to replace the IP from Price...

 

They never really replaced Porcello's fully. Price gave us 107 IP last year and has averaged about 120 per year over the last 3 years- still very significant, but not a ton.

 

It's his level of performance in those 120 that will be harder to match (122 ERA+)

[notin]

They never really replaced Porcello's fully. Price gave us 107 IP last year and has averaged about 120 per year over the last 3 years- still very significant, but not a ton.

 

It's his level of performance in those 120 that will be harder to match (122 ERA+)

 

I doubt there is much available capable of his ERA+. Even for 120 IP.

 

The Sox are either going to have to move one of their top few prospects (Casas, Downs, Dalbec) or settle for a lesser pitcher and hope for the best...

[Slasher9]

there may be an opener 2x a week.....

[moonslav59]

I doubt there is much available capable of his ERA+. Even for 120 IP.

 

The Sox are either going to have to move one of their top few prospects (Casas, Downs, Dalbec) or settle for a lesser pitcher and hope for the best...

 

I didn't really mean to imply we need to get a 122 ERA+, but it's more about quality than quantity, to me, except that we still need more "quantity" in replacing Porcello, so really, we need both- a 180 guy with a 105 to 110 ERA+. We can afford to take on some salary, so maybe someone is out there.

[notin]

I didn't really mean to imply we need to get a 122 ERA+, but it's more about quality than quantity, to me, except that we still need more "quantity" in replacing Porcello, so really, we need both- a 180 guy with a 105 to 110 ERA+. We can afford to take on some salary, so maybe someone is out there.

 

Martin Perez might be good for 170 IP or so, but he is basically an ERA+ of 95-100 guy. Unless Bloom saw something in him that could be exploited...

[moonslav59]

Martin Perez might be good for 170 IP or so, but he is basically an ERA+ of 95-100 guy. Unless Bloom saw something in him that could be exploited...

 

I gotta think he sees something that can easily be adjusted to make him a plus. His pay does not match his history.

[notin]

I gotta think he sees something that can easily be adjusted to make him a plus. His pay does not match his history.

 

The cut fastball, which grades similar to that of Mariano Rivera by some scouts...

[jung]

The 2020 team more than even recent editions will be a team featuring a relatively small number of really good players accompanied by sludge. There are more holes in the 2020 team to date than a cheese grater. Not to mention 3 LH hitting OFers. Duh! Seem to have covered that base with their new light hitting OF as a 4th. That's bound to be the thing that just blows up the dresses of the fan base.

 

I am not sure the Sox will make many moves that actually improve the 2020 edition if it takes even from 2021, never mind any year after 2021.

[mvp 78]

The 2020 team more than even recent editions will be a team featuring a relatively small number of really good players accompanied by sludge. There are more holes in the 2020 team to date than a cheese grater. Not to mention 3 LH hitting OFers. Duh! Seem to have covered that base with their new light hitting OF as a 4th. That's bound to be the thing that just blows up the dresses of the fan base.

 

I am not sure the Sox will make many moves that actually improve the 2020 edition if it takes even from 2021, never mind any year after 2021.

 

Who cares if all the OFers are left handed? What difference does it make if you still have enough right handed hitters elsewhere?

[moonslav59]

Who cares if all the OFers are left handed? What difference does it make if you still have enough right handed hitters elsewhere?

 

Well, when two struggle vs lefties, it's nice to have a 4th OF'er who bats righty, so we can rest those two vs a lefty.

[notin]

The 2020 team more than even recent editions will be a team featuring a relatively small number of really good players accompanied by sludge. There are more holes in the 2020 team to date than a cheese grater. Not to mention 3 LH hitting OFers. Duh! Seem to have covered that base with their new light hitting OF as a 4th. That's bound to be the thing that just blows up the dresses of the fan base.

 

I am not sure the Sox will make many moves that actually improve the 2020 edition if it takes even from 2021, never mind any year after 2021.

 

 

Of all the complaints about the Red Sox, none of them seem more trivial than having three left-handed hitting outfielders. Since most pitchers do throw right-handed, having left-handed hitters is a good thing, and who cares what position they play? If the Sox had two LHH outfielders and a LHH catcher, would that be better? If they need a RHH bat in the lineup, Chavis and/or Dalbec can step in at 1B or 2B. Moreland is a nice player sometimes, but I could see him losing his starting role if one of those two gets hot. In fact, who is the best LHH in the Sox system above A ball? Jarren Duran? That all 3 outfielders bat lefty is a non-issue.

 

The pitching is an issue. However, right now the majority of the Sox best position prospects are infielders - Casas, Downs, Dalbec - and very little in the OF, with just Duran and Wilson. And both of them are likely CF. I think the sox either know or will learn that Connor Wong is not a catcher like the Dodgers did. and he likely ends up in the OF as well. (The early returns on experiments with him playing 2B an 3B were not met with rave reviews.)

 

With Devers and Bogerts holding down 2 of the 4 infield positions for the forseeable future, it does give the Sox some leeway to move an infield prospect for a pitcher, and Jeter Downs is probably the most likely candidate. One possibility is to Miami, a team owned by his namesake and flush with young pitching and weak infielders. (Although they do have some legitimate young talent in the pipeline at 2B and SS in Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm). But 3B for them is a bit of a black hole. Might they be interested in Downs or Dalbec? Maybe the Marlins sell high on Caleb Smith for one? (The BTV simulator does value Smith significantly higher than either.)

 

A trade of Downs for Jeffrey Means of Baltimore works out nicely on the simulator, and Baltimore has fewer middle infield prospects than good neighborhoods.

 

A trade of Downs for Jameson Taillon also works out on the simulator, but if the Red Sox balked at Brusdar Graterol's medicals, I imagine a review of Taillon's would induce a fatal apoplectic attack.

 

The Rockies are probably not amenable to a Jon Gray/Jeter Downs trade even if the Sox also took back one of their awful contracts. Middle infield is easily the strongest position in the Rockies system. I imagine any Gray deal is for pitching and not much else.

 

Oakland's Sean Manaea might be a possibility. The A's have 7 starting pitchers with MLB experience on their current roster and 2B for them is a place to put out-of-options shortstops who cannot beat out Semien. The A's are a post-season hopeful after last yer's brief appearance, but budget constraints have the team in a constant state of reloading. Manaea only pitched 29 IP last year, so they don't need him for a playoff run (especially if Montas is back and drug-free) and his salary of $3.75mill seems paltry to most teams but might be considered movable in Oakland.

 

Maybe a deal with KC involving Downs and Bradley for Jacob Junis and Ian Kennedy. The Royals save a good amount of money and get a good 2B/SS prospect, something they lack. The Red Sox get a bad contract on a pitcher who has become a good closer and get an effective SP who has the added bonus of already being hated in Yankee Stadium...

 

A few thoughts on the subject...

Edited February 11, 2020 by notin

[notin]

Who cares if all the OFers are left handed? What difference does it make if you still have enough right handed hitters elsewhere?

 

My thoughts exactly. Not to mention, would this team be better off if Jackie Bradley batted .225 from the right side?

[jung]

Who cares if all the OFers are left handed? What difference does it make if you still have enough right handed hitters elsewhere?

 

The Sox cared enough to bring in a RH hitting OFer.

 

With Mookie gone for hitters of consequence hitting from the Right side we have JD, Vaz and X....lets see, we have JD, Vaz and X and we have ahhhhhh JD, Vaz and X.

 

Plus most of a teams power comes from OF or DH bats. MLB has not managed to make agility so meaningless in the infield that you can afford to put too many linebackers in the middle infield and Beni is living proof that there are some hitters that simply can't hit many HR's no matter how much Manfred juices the baseball.

 

The last time the Sox featured an all LH OF was 1960. We know what a great team that was!

 

Honestly I don't think the Sox brass cares at least for 2020. They did bring in a RH hitting OFer. He can't hit is weight. But WHO CARES. IMO he is here to keep JD out of the OF. Probably the smartest move they have made so far for 2020.

Edited February 11, 2020 by jung