Calling All Budgies - the Red Sox 2020 payroll thread

[Kimmi]

I'm of the opinion that if they don't sign Brock Hold they're going to regret it sooner or later. Assuming they have any interest in winning, that is.

 

I have always been a Brock Holt fan. I would love to have him back.

[Bellhorn04]

Updated for Pillar signing and E-Rod arb award:

 

16.4 million under the 'cap' (might as well call it that, for the sake of brevity if nothing else).

[notin]

I'm of the opinion that if they don't sign Brock Hold they're going to regret it sooner or later. Assuming they have any interest in winning, that is.

 

While I like Holt, I wouldn’t say not being interested in him equates to not being interested in winning. The guy is replaceable...

[mvp 78]

Holt is overrated because of his AS appearance and charity work.

[notin]

Holt is overrated because of his AS appearance and charity work.

 

He's a role player. But the Sox already have 2 players who can fill that role in Peraza and Lin and a potential third in Arauz...

[jacksonianmarch]

Holt is a utility player who can hit. I’m still surprised some team hasn’t taken a flier on him.

[notin]

Holt is a utility player who can hit. I’m still surprised some team hasn’t taken a flier on him.

 

Maybe his asking price is a bit high?

[a700hitter]

Holt is overrated because of his AS appearance and charity work.

His versatility is a plus. He, pretty good at several positions, and when healthy, his stick is good too. He’s an excellent bench player who can play for long stretches and be productive.

[moonslav59]

Updated for Pillar signing and E-Rod arb award:

 

16.4 million under the 'cap' (might as well call it that, for the sake of brevity if nothing else).

 

If we trade JBJ (-$11M) and add a SP'er (say +$17.4M), we'll have $10M to spend, if needed, at the AS break.

 

That is enought to get two very good, but over-priced pitchers, hopefully without giving up much.

[Behindenemylines]

Cot's says Chaim has 19.6 million to play with.

 

At this point any dollars being spent need to be on starting pitching. Unless everything falls right (which it never does) 2020 will be a reset year. Hopefully, it won’t be a long summer watching the Sox SP struggle.

[jacksonianmarch]

At this point, one year deals are on the table for anyone. The Sox are going to be sellers at the deadline in all likelihood, so getting guys on one year deals that you can sell off isn’t a bad thing

[moonslav59]

At this point, one year deals are on the table for anyone. The Sox are going to be sellers at the deadline in all likelihood, so getting guys on one year deals that you can sell off isn’t a bad thing

 

True.

 

I'm projecting us as being sellers at the deadline, but it's not a sure thing.

 

We still have a formidable offense and some pitchers who can bounce back.

 

Acquiring players that could possibly be traded at the deadline is certainly a good part of the plan, but the plan is to try to get us to be competitive, this year, without messing up 2021 and beyond.

[a700hitter]

Camp has started and we have 4 starting pitchers— one has pneumonia and another is post op and injury prone. Bloom has gone beyond being patient. He’s stymied imo. He has no clue how to build a roster for a big market team with a probing media. We have the highest ticket prices in baseball. The Red Sox don’t give away tickets with a tank of gas or for milk carton coupons. This roster looks like s*** right now.

[moonslav59]

No clue?

 

He was given a vastly over budget roster by DD- someone several people are going out of their way to defend.

 

It was a mandate to reset, IMO. If some want to believe it was just a priority, fine.

 

Bloom's hands were tied by budget constraints and the unknown of being able to trade Betts and dump Price's deal. Had that deal been done in December, maybe we'd see a different roster, now, but it's hard to blame Bloom for where we are, right now.

 

Should he have rushed a Betts-Price deal?

 

I know some wish we never made the deal, but I can't see any better way to reset the tax.

[mvp 78]

Can’t believe Bloom didn’t plan on Sale getting pneumonia!

[Larry Cook]

How does hang’em Chaim make this projected roster work when all our brightest and best have left our analytics department thanks to desperate Dave?

 

The guy currently running it, who could not get laid in a women’s prison, is in charge of a couple D students, a couple high school drop outs and a dozen developmentally challenged kids.

 

Despite everything hang’em Chaim may yet prove his worth! (Hopefully before bipolar Henry forgets to take his meds and changes the organization’s direction ... yet again!)

[mvp 78]

Who said everyone left? That’s not what Alex Speier said.

[Larry Cook]

Who said everyone left? That’s not what Alex Speier said.

 

I do not know who Alex is, but I question he missed the mass exodus from the baseball operations and analytics department during the dark days of desperate Dave,

 

Most of our brightest and best are now in Arizona, Houston, Oakland and even some in Tampa bay!

 

Clearly Alex would make Stevie wonder look great at poker!!!

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-red-sox-analytics-department-overseer-zack-scott/

 

I haven’t seen it noted anywhere that there was a mass exodus under DD. Read this interview where it states the department grew under DD.

 

If you don’t know Alex Speier, you must not watch many Sox games.

[jacksonianmarch]

The thing Henry needs to do now is let Bloom do his work. Henry made a mandate, Bloom followed through and actually set the team up for future prosperity. He got FAR more than anyone thought he could for one year of Betts. Yes, they’re under budget, but they’re also underwater with some bad contracts. He needs to be allowed to work his magic to clean the slate. He’s still got two more years of Pedroia, 3 more years of Eovaldi, 3 more years of half-Price and 5 more years of Sale. If he can clear some of that burden while allowing the farm to grow, he will be primed to build the next team. The Sox are currently in tear down mode. This year should see some assets obtained and some costs shed

[oldtimer]

The thing Henry needs to do now is let Bloom do his work. Henry made a mandate, Bloom followed through and actually set the team up for future prosperity. He got FAR more than anyone thought he could for one year of Betts. Yes, they’re under budget, but they’re also underwater with some bad contracts. He needs to be allowed to work his magic to clean the slate. He’s still got two more years of Pedroia, 3 more years of Eovaldi, 3 more years of half-Price and 5 more years of Sale. If he can clear some of that burden while allowing the farm to grow, he will be primed to build the next team. The Sox are currently in tear down mode. This year should see some assets obtained and some costs shed

 

The Pedroia and Price contracts represent sunken costs and were necessary corrections. Only time can rid the club of those drags on the budget. The Sale and Eovaldi contracts are ongoing and one would hope will return some value to the team, if not equivalent to the expenditure. I believe the JBJ contract represents an overpay and may be shed early, whereas JDM will probably stay around and opt out for next season. This should leave Bloom a good deal of cap room to make significant improvements. It will take time but I agree with the direction.

 

The Yankees on the other hand are poised to have a good year but may have spent themselves into future problems. They have retained a higher quality farm, so the effects of their spending may not be as great as what has happened to the Sox but the breakdown of a couple of highly paid pitchers would be hard to overcome.

[jacksonianmarch]

You can survive heavy expenditures if you’re able to fill in your team with minor league depth. The Yanks have been able to do that. Their window is now and with the ebb and flow of big league teams, they’re likely to start having issues when their core is up for free agency (in 3 years).

 

Teams who spend but get performance for their spending end up ok. It’s when you have Pedroia’s, Ellsbury’s etc who aren’t playing yet eating a lot of money that you get into trouble. If the cash you’re spending on a player is rewarded in value they provide, then its beneficial

[Bellhorn04]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-red-sox-analytics-department-overseer-zack-scott/

 

I haven’t seen it noted anywhere that there was a mass exodus under DD. Read this interview where it states the department grew under DD.

 

If you don’t know Alex Speier, you must not watch many Sox games.

 

Larry doesn't watch games or read about the team - makes you wonder where he gets his info.

[Bellhorn04]

Teams who spend but get performance for their spending end up ok. It’s when you have Pedroia’s, Ellsbury’s etc who aren’t playing yet eating a lot of money that you get into trouble. If the cash you’re spending on a player is rewarded in value they provide, then its beneficial

 

Pedroia is just an example of the bad luck that can befall any team who signs a player to a long contract.

 

And his contract was about one quarter of what Mookie wants.

[Hugh2]

One thing about these Sox over the past couple decades is they've had a nack for falling apart and putting themselves back together. 2013 is probably the best example of this. They've never been afraid to change strategies that have had optimal and sub-optimal outcomes. For example, the Sox of 2013 would never sign David Price, they just wouldn't do it, it was never going to be part of their organizational philosophy.

 

Ben Charrington did a great job at rebuilding the system, but the Sox were able to switch direction and bring in a guy like Dombroski had the balls to blow it all up and build a championship team. G.M.'s do that all the time, win 100 games and sit home in October so 2018 is just that more special. I'm not saying it's going to be a good year this year, I think best case scenario is with a clean bill of health this team hits like crazy and trades for another ACE at the deadline. Unlikely, but that's how we get to October.

 

I'm also not claiming to know the future but I will say this. I think the Sox are willing to go over the Luxury tax, they just wanted to reset, I suspect a rebuild is coming after this year via trades and FA. And honestly, if guys don't opt out like JDM and Bogarets (unlikely) they only need to focus on the pitching side of things. I'm not saying trading Mookie was a great decision, but I think we have to see what they do with it.

[notin]

One thing about these Sox over the past couple decades is they've had a nack for falling apart and putting themselves back together. 2013 is probably the best example of this. They've never been afraid to change strategies that have had optimal and sub-optimal outcomes. For example, the Sox of 2013 would never sign David Price, they just wouldn't do it, it was never going to be part of their organizational philosophy.

 

Ben Charrington did a great job at rebuilding the system, but the Sox were able to switch direction and bring in a guy like Dombroski had the balls to blow it all up and build a championship team. G.M.'s do that all the time, win 100 games and sit home in October so 2018 is just that more special. I'm not saying it's going to be a good year this year, I think best case scenario is with a clean bill of health this team hits like crazy and trades for another ACE at the deadline. Unlikely, but that's how we get to October.

 

I'm also not claiming to know the future but I will say this. I think the Sox are willing to go over the Luxury tax, they just wanted to reset, I suspect a rebuild is coming after this year via trades and FA. And honestly, if guys don't opt out like JDM and Bogarets (unlikely) they only need to focus on the pitching side of things. I'm not saying trading Mookie was a great decision, but I think we have to see what they do with it.

 

I don’t think Bogaerts has an opt out...

[mvp 78]

Larry doesn't watch games or read about the team - makes you wonder where he gets his info.

 

Yeah, IDK. If you're going to say that everyone left, at least try to back up your position. However, if you don't know who Alex Speier is, I honestly don't think you're really paying attention and are just making stuff up.

 

The Fangraphs interview I posted was conducted AFTER DD was let go. If DD had ruined the analytics department, I'm sure the Sox wouldn't be saying that it actually grew under DD's leadership.

[Slasher9]

AThe Sox are going to be sellers at the deadline

 

cannot WAIT for this mea culpa.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think Bogaerts has an opt out...

 

He does, but we have more time with him than I suggested. His opt out is after the 2022 season.

[notin]

He does, but we have more time with him than I suggested. His opt out is after the 2022 season.

 

OK. Thank you.