Calling All Budgies - the Red Sox 2020 payroll thread

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have stated that it's a "goal, but not a mandate" to get the payroll below $208 million for luxury tax purposes for 2020. $208 million is the "first tax threshold" for 2020. If they can get below that number, they will not only avoid paying luxury tax for the first time in 3 years, their tax rate for 2021 will be re-set to the lowest rates.

 

According to Cot's Contracts, which is as far as I can tell the most accurate, comprehensive and easy to understand of all the payroll trackers, the Red Sox 2020 payroll for tax purposes currently sits at $218,367. This includes estimates for all arbitration salaries, plus the other stuff that has to be added in, including player benefits of about $15 million.

 

So the daunting task assigned to Chaim Bloom and the rest of baseball ops and bean-counters is to somehow shave about $10.5 million of payroll.

 

They could actually achieve this in one simple stroke by removing Jackie Bradley Jr., whose arbitration estimate is $11.5 million.

 

But of course there are other things to be considered, such as who would replace JBJ, who will replace Rick Porcello in the rotation etc.

 

Other prime candidates to be removed from payroll:

 

Mookie Betts - $27.5 million arbitration estimate

JD Martinez - $22 million AAV

David Price - $31 million AAV (but the Red Sox would almost certainly have to pay at least half of it if they trade him)

Nathan Eovaldi $17 million AAV

[notin]

Trade Price ($31mill AAV) to San Diego for Wil Myers ($13.8mill AAV).

 

San Diego started the off-season with a glut of outfielders and has since traded for two more (while dealing one back). They don’t want Myers, which is legitimate internet rumor buzz, so, yeah, unsubstantiated.

 

But what isn’t unsubstantiated is their mandate to win more games. Getting Price gives them a veteran atop a very young rotation. Getting Price (owed $96mill for 3 years) for Myers (owed $68.5 mill over 3 years) gets the Padres a 2-2.5 fWAR veteran pitcher for 3 years for a net cost of $27.5 mill, or $9.1mill per year.

 

Or basically exactly what the Rangers paid Kyle Gibson (2.6.fWAR).

 

Oh yeah . And the Sox get Wil Myers. Stick him at 1b and marvel at the adequacy in action...

Edited December 7, 2019 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?

 

Even if it's borderline, we'd then still have to slash cash to be able to stockpile arms. JBJ's 11 mil could ideally be split for two 5.5 mil pitchers...

 

Since a lot of teams have already made moves -- signings, trades, offers -- while the Sox have not yet, I wouldn't be surprised if Bloom is preparing a series of cause-and-effect if-thens ready to drop like dominoes at this week's meetings...

[notin]

In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?

 

Even if it's borderline, we'd then still have to slash cash to be able to stockpile arms. JBJ's 11 mil could ideally be split for two 5.5 mil pitchers...

 

Since a lot of teams have already made moves -- signings, trades, offers -- while the Sox have not yet, I wouldn't be surprised if Bloom is preparing a series of cause-and-effect if-thens ready to drop like dominoes at this week's meetings...

 

So... is there an over/under date for Bloom’s first move that doesn’t involve Josh Osich?

[notin]

In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?

...

 

Yes.

 

According to Belhorn and Cot’s, the Sox need to shed $10.37 mill. That trade sheds $17.2 mill off payroll numbers.

 

But it leaves 2 voids in the rotation...

[notin]

Per MLBTR, most GMs are reluctant to trade anything decent for Betts and prefer to wait a year and just sign him.

 

Granted, the article doesn’t say ALL GMs and you really need just one to say “My team could use Mookie Betts in his prime. So what do you want?” But in the event Bloom cannot find that one GM, trading Mookie should be off the table...

[OH FOY]

So you pay half of Price's contract, and keep Eovaldi at 17, no thanks, rather move Nathan. Price comes back after injury, and depending on Teams situation, he could be a could Trade chip in July. Gamble yes, but the Track record between Price and Nathan, is ridiculous.

One is proven, the other never proved anything.

Edited December 7, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

According to Belhorn and Cot’s, the Sox need to shed $10.37 mill. That trade sheds $17.2 mill off payroll numbers.

 

But it leaves 2 voids in the rotation...

 

Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

 

If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

 

I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

 

Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M/1 Alex Wood

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)

$3M/1 Drew Smily

Honorable Mentions:

Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

 

Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?

[moonslav59]

So you pay half of Price's contract, and keep Eovaldi at 17, no thanks, rather move Nathan. Price comes back after injury, and depending on Teams situation, he could be a could Trade chip in July. Gamble yes, but the Track record between Price and Nathan, is ridiculous.

One is proven, the other never proved anything.

 

One's arm is hanging by a thread- one has had a hodge podge of non-career threatening injuries.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...

[notin]

Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

 

If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

 

I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

 

Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M/1 Alex Wood

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)

$3M/1 Drew Smily

Honorable Mentions:

Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

 

Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?

 

If the Sox deal JBJ, the team could also give a chance to Chris Archer. He would be affordable and probably better than some of those free agents. Think Cherington does a Bradley-Archer trade? Bradley will make maybe $2mill more and Fangraphs says Pitt’s outfield defense was among the worst in MLB. I would assume Pitt would like a minor leaguer as well. They are rebuilding after all.

 

And really, if the Sox do trade Bradley, don’t you think they’re taking some money back in some way?

[notin]

One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...

 

And one has 5 All Star appearances and 4 top 6 Cy Young finishes, including one award, and has received MVP votes multiple times, while the other has never gotten a vote for anything since high school, where he was unanimously chosen “Most Likely to Have Multiple Tommy John Surgeries”...

[notin]

One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...

 

Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

 

If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

 

I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

 

Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M/1 Alex Wood

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)

$3M/1 Drew Smily

Honorable Mentions:

Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

 

Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?

 

The Sox should also consider Edwin Jackson. I think it’s our turn to sign him...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And one has 5 All Star appearances and 4 top 6 Cy Young finishes, including one award, and has received MVP votes multiple times, while the other has never gotten a vote for anything since high school, where he was unanimously chosen “Most Likely to Have Multiple Tommy John Surgeries”...

 

You know I have to say this: but never for Boston.

 

And Mark McGwire isn't here to talk about the past...

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I would rather keep both Price and Eovaldi. But I'd certainly rather see one of them go than Betts or JDM.

[notin]

Personally I would rather keep both Price and Eovaldi. But I'd certainly rather see one of them go than Betts or JDM.

 

Were I to rank my preferred order of departure, it would be

 

1. Price

2. Eovaldi

3. Martinez

4. Betts

 

 

Now the Sox could deal Bogaerts and get under and presumably, given his reasonable salary and control, actually fill a ton of holes on this team at once and some with some quality. But I consider that a long shot...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox deal JBJ, the team could also give a chance to Chris Archer. He would be affordable and probably better than some of those free agents. Think Cherington does a Bradley-Archer trade? Bradley will make maybe $2mill more and Fangraphs says Pitt’s outfield defense was among the worst in MLB. I would assume Pitt would like a minor leaguer as well. They are rebuilding after all.

 

And really, if the Sox do trade Bradley, don’t you think they’re taking some money back in some way?

 

JBJ at $11M for 1 year is not what Pitt wants, right now.

 

If we trade JBJ, it would be to free up the full $11M.

[moonslav59]

The Sox should also consider Edwin Jackson. I think it’s our turn to sign him...

 

Are we the only team left?

[moonslav59]

Were I to rank my preferred order of departure, it would be

 

1. Price

2. Eovaldi

3. Martinez

4. Betts

 

 

Now the Sox could deal Bogaerts and get under and presumably, given his reasonable salary and control, actually fill a ton of holes on this team at once and some with some quality. But I consider that a long shot...

 

Are you considering JBJ being a gonner, or are you just counting the $17M+ nplayers?

[notin]

Are you considering JBJ being a gonner, or are you just counting the $17M+ nplayers?

 

I think he is a goner, but trading Bradley gets you just under with lots of holes to fill. And that’s with assuming you take no money back

[moonslav59]

I think he is a goner, but trading Bradley gets you just under with lots of holes to fill. And that’s with assuming you take no money back

 

I agree.

 

I also agree with your order of wish list.

 

If we could do the deals you suggested- Price for Myers and Eovaldi for Odor, we'd have the 1B and 2B holes filled and could afford to trade Chavis (some might say Dalbec). Maybe we get a cheap CF'er for Chavis and a cheap RP'er for JBJ.

 

With the money saved (~$25M), we could sign 2 SP'ers.

 

Maybe Roark, Teheran and Lindblom.

Edited December 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I don't see anyone eating $28M of Betts salary. See where we are and trade him in July. The monetary cost will be around $8M, a team contending could stomach that amount and give up some players.

[moonslav59]

I don't see anyone eating $28M of Betts salary. See where we are and trade him in July. The monetary cost will be around $8M, a team contending could stomach that amount and give up some players.

 

About 6-8 teams would sign Betts to $40-50M for 1 year as a FA. There is little risk. Of course someone would pay $28M/1. The issue is how much would they give up for him?

 

If his trade value is $50M, like the trade simulator suggests, one would think it would have to be a lot.

 

If we took back $10-15M in salary from return players, then one would expect a nice haul.

[Nick]

About 6-8 teams would sign Betts to $40-50M for 1 year as a FA. There is little risk. Of course someone would pay $28M/1. The issue is how much would they give up for him?

 

If his trade value is $50M, like the trade simulator suggests, one would think it would have to be a lot.

 

If we took back $10-15M in salary from return players, then one would expect a nice haul.

 

I don't care if it's only for one year.... no one is paying $40-$50M for anyone. You'll getting too deep into analytics, trade simulators....get out of the forest.

[moonslav59]

I don't care if it's only for one year.... no one is paying $40-$50M for anyone. You'll getting too deep into analytics, trade simulators....get out of the forest.

 

This has nothing to do with the trade simulator, despite me bringing it up.

 

1 year of a player like Betts in the heart of his prime would bring mega bucks due to the low risk attached to a 1 year deal.

 

I am 100% certain someone would pay Betts over $40M for just 1 year. My guess is it would be closer to $50M than $40M.

 

He may end up getting $35M x 10, and that type of contract would be based on setting his value something like this:

 

$50M year 1

$45M yr 2

$45M yr 3

$40M yr 4

$35M yr 5

$35M yr 6

$30M yr 7

$25M yr 8

$25M yr 9

$20M yr 10

[notin]

Were I to rank my preferred order of departure, it would be

 

1. Price

2. Eovaldi

3. Martinez

4. Betts

 

 

Now the Sox could deal Bogaerts and get under and presumably, given his reasonable salary and control, actually fill a ton of holes on this team at once and some with some quality. But I consider that a long shot...

 

After some additional - and probably too much - thought, I think I would re-order this to make Eovaldi number 1 on my list to go.

 

Price isn't likely to show up for work every opportunity in 2020, but he is a strong bet to show up more often than Eovaldi...

[moonslav59]

After some additional - and probably too much - thought, I think I would re-order this to make Eovaldi number 1 on my list to go.

 

Price isn't likely to show up for work every opportunity in 2020, but he is a strong bet to show up more often than Eovaldi...

 

Even if that is true, and I'm not sure I agree, the $32M to $17M keeps Price #1 in my book.

 

What's the chances of Price instead of Eovaldi for Odor being accepted by TX? What if we took on Mathis & Choo?

[notin]

Even if that is true, and I'm not sure I agree, the $32M to $17M keeps Price #1 in my book.

 

What's the chances of Price instead of Eovaldi for Odor being accepted by TX? What if we took on Mathis & Choo?

 

f*** Choo. Where would he play? Choo in LF and Benintendi in CF after we deal Bradley?

 

Price for Odor and Mathis. Take it or leave it. Price is expensive, but he isn't useless, like Odor.

[moonslav59]

f*** Choo. Where would he play? Choo in LF and Benintendi in CF after we deal Bradley?

 

Price for Odor and Mathis. Take it or leave it. Price is expensive, but he isn't useless, like Odor.

 

I'm not a Choo fan. I'm not an Odor or Myers fan either.

 

We'd deal Martinez, Chavis & Duran for Kopech to the White Sox and play Choo at DH.

Edited December 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m getting some good laughs here reading this thread.

 

The white Sox aren’t dealing their prized pitcher in Kopech for a year of control of a 33 yr old DH. Not happening. Chavis and Duran don’t sweeten the pot enough.

 

Choi’s bat has been perfectly fine. Last two seasons, .800+ OPS and OBP’s over .370. Heck, the 37 yr old also stole 15 bases last year. He’s not trash, but he’s also a DH right now. No reason for the Sox to go after him

 

The Price for Myers idea is fine for the Sox, but what does it do for SD who are trying to shed payroll to make a run at Strasburg (SD State alum)?

 

Listen, Price is untradeable without the Sox eating an exorbitant amount of money. With his injury issues 2 of the last 3 years, his sparkling personality and worsening production when on the field, you’re not offloading his contract without doing something dumb.

 

The best way to slip under the budget is to deal off JBJ for prospects and deal off Betts for at least one major leaguer who can fill one of the holes in the big league club. That’ll then allow the Sox about $33 mil to spend to fill the other holes