Calling All Budgies - the Red Sox 2020 payroll thread

[OH FOY]

I would not be shocked if Benni is moved, to Offset a Higher priced guy.

[notin]

I’m getting some good laughs here reading this thread.

 

The white Sox aren’t dealing their prized pitcher in Kopech for a year of control of a 33 yr old DH. Not happening. Chavis and Duran don’t sweeten the pot enough.

 

Choi’s bat has been perfectly fine. Last two seasons, .800+ OPS and OBP’s over .370. Heck, the 37 yr old also stole 15 bases last year. He’s not trash, but he’s also a DH right now. No reason for the Sox to go after him

 

The Price for Myers idea is fine for the Sox, but what does it do for SD who are trying to shed payroll to make a run at Strasburg (SD State alum)?

 

Listen, Price is untradeable without the Sox eating an exorbitant amount of money. With his injury issues 2 of the last 3 years, his sparkling personality and worsening production when on the field, you’re not offloading his contract without doing something dumb.

 

The best way to slip under the budget is to deal off JBJ for prospects and deal off Betts for at least one major leaguer who can fill one of the holes in the big league club. That’ll then allow the Sox about $33 mil to spend to fill the other holes

 

Are they?

 

It does make me wonder why they dealt Eric Lauer ($560K) for Zach Davies (proj 2020 salary $4mill). Or first year arb Hunter Renfroe (Proj salary $2.2mill) for Tommy Pham (projected salary ($8.6mill).

 

Maybe Preller doesn't know "shed" means "subtract"? Maybe he thinks he's already "shed" close to $10mill in salary, thinking "this is easy!"

 

 

 

Also, if Cano was tradable, Price is trdable. But it's a question of "should" over Eovaldi. Teams were lining up to pay Eovaldi very close to what Boston offered him one season ago. And while he was hurt, I really doubt any of them were surprised by it. It really just takes one GM. Hopefully not the one we just fired...

[notin]

The Mariners reportedly want to move Dee Gordon to clear 2B for Shed Long (Or "Add Long", as AJ Preller calls him).

 

Gordon has an AAV of $10mill. If the Mariners would take Eovaldi for him, it's a move that would save the Sox $7.4mill towards the luxury tax, fill 2B, and merely bump up the date where the Sox need to find Eovaldi's replacement for the rotation.

 

 

Yes, harmony, I know the simulator would reject the move. But the simulator rejects most trades. Would DiPoto reject it?

 

 

Note: What has to be considered for Seattle is that Gordon isn't very good, but I greatly prefer him over Rougned Odor...

Edited December 8, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

I’m getting some good laughs here reading this thread.

 

The white Sox aren’t dealing their prized pitcher in Kopech for a year of control of a 33 yr old DH. Not happening. Chavis and Duran don’t sweeten the pot enough.

 

Choi’s bat has been perfectly fine. Last two seasons, .800+ OPS and OBP’s over .370. Heck, the 37 yr old also stole 15 bases last year. He’s not trash, but he’s also a DH right now. No reason for the Sox to go after him

 

The Price for Myers idea is fine for the Sox, but what does it do for SD who are trying to shed payroll to make a run at Strasburg (SD State alum)?

 

Listen, Price is untradeable without the Sox eating an exorbitant amount of money. With his injury issues 2 of the last 3 years, his sparkling personality and worsening production when on the field, you’re not offloading his contract without doing something dumb.

 

The best way to slip under the budget is to deal off JBJ for prospects and deal off Betts for at least one major leaguer who can fill one of the holes in the big league club. That’ll then allow the Sox about $33 mil to spend to fill the other holes

 

Taking back Myers is "eating an exorbitant amount of money." We could even pay more towards it or add someone like Chavis or Walden.

 

I think you are right on the Kopech deal, but you may be selling Chavis & Duran short.

 

The Choo idea was to help balance the money Texas would be taking on with Eovaldi or Price with the idea that we'd trade Martinez, so he could DH. Yes, we likely don't get Kopech for JD, but we could get something and now be way under the tax line. This would allow Bloom to do his magic finding under-the-radar gems.

 

Right now, he has no wiggle room to sign even the lowest paid free agents or to trade for anyone making even $1M over min wage.

 

[notin]

Taking back Myers is "eating an exorbitant amount of money." We could even pay more towards it or add someone like Chavis or Walden.

 

 

 

 

 

Taking back Myers might represent one of the largest contract eats ever by the salary dumping team. When the Mariners traded Cano (owed $120mill) they took back Jay Bruce ($28mill) and Anthony Swarzak ($8.5mill) to balance out the deal. Myers is owed about double that total, while Price is owed less than Cano was.

 

And WTF is jacko's "What does this deal do for San Diego" talk? Seriously? Forget the crap about them trying to clear cash for Strasburg. It's clearly not happening, and they clearly are not even trying to do so.

 

Price might be expensive but dealing him for Myers means the Padres get a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher for a net cost of $9mill per season. Basically it's like getting a slightly cheaper Kyle Gibson (2.6 fWAR season and got $31mill over 3 years). San Diego does immensely well in this deal. The question is - other than to get under the limit, why would Boston make this trade?

[moonslav59]

Taking back Myers might represent one of the largest contract eats ever by the salary dumping team. When the Mariners traded Cano (owed $120mill) they took back Jay Bruce ($28mill) and Anthony Swarzak ($8.5mill) to balance out the deal. Myers is owed about double that total, while Price is owed less than Cano was.

 

And WTF is jacko's "What does this deal do for San Diego" talk? Seriously? Forget the crap about them trying to clear cash for Strasburg. It's clearly not happening, and they clearly are not even trying to do so.

 

Price might be expensive but dealing him for Myers means the Padres get a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher for a net cost of $9mill per season. Basically it's like getting a slightly cheaper Kyle Gibson (2.6 fWAR season and got $31mill over 3 years). San Diego does immensely well in this deal. The question is - other than to get under the limit, why would Boston make this trade?

 

It's all based on Jacko's idea that all Sox pitchers are doomed to a zero or below WAR in 2020.

 

If Price was a Yankee, he would not want to trade Price for Myers.

[notin]

It's all based on Jacko's idea that all Sox pitchers are doomed to a zero or below WAR in 2020.

 

If Price was a Yankee, he would not want to trade Price for Myers.

 

If Price was a Yankee, he might be as good as the immortal Jordan Montgomery...

[jacksonianmarch]

Are they?

 

It does make me wonder why they dealt Eric Lauer ($560K) for Zach Davies (proj 2020 salary $4mill). Or first year arb Hunter Renfroe (Proj salary $2.2mill) for Tommy Pham (projected salary ($8.6mill).

 

Maybe Preller doesn't know "shed" means "subtract"? Maybe he thinks he's already "shed" close to $10mill in salary, thinking "this is easy!"

 

 

 

Also, if Cano was tradable, Price is trdable. But it's a question of "should" over Eovaldi. Teams were lining up to pay Eovaldi very close to what Boston offered him one season ago. And while he was hurt, I really doubt any of them were surprised by it. It really just takes one GM. Hopefully not the one we just fired...

 

Cano was dealt because the Mets were involved and had a rookie GM. The Mets are being sold, so let’s see if they throw money around.

 

Also, Cano was coming off a good, albeit PED shortened, season. 3 WAR in 80 games. Pretty solid and clearly the Mets expected something from him rather than using their financial wealth to absorb the hit.

 

As for Preller, yes, he’s added some salary to help his squad, but why would he add $30 mil guaranteed and get limited return? If he’s going to spend $30 mil, he’d be better served breaking it up

[jacksonianmarch]

It's all based on Jacko's idea that all Sox pitchers are doomed to a zero or below WAR in 2020.

 

If Price was a Yankee, he would not want to trade Price for Myers.

 

If Price was a Yankee, I’d understand that we are stuck with him. The first time he shows anything positive, I put out feelers and would be willing to eat up to half the contract

[notin]

If Price was a Yankee, I’d understand that we are stuck with him. The first time he shows anything positive, I put out feelers and would be willing to eat up to half the contract

 

Taking back Myers = eating over 2/3 of the contract.

[notin]

Cano was dealt because the Mets were involved and had a rookie GM. The Mets are being sold, so let’s see if they throw money around.

 

Also, Cano was coming off a good, albeit PED shortened, season. 3 WAR in 80 games. Pretty solid and clearly the Mets expected something from him rather than using their financial wealth to absorb the hit.

 

As for Preller, yes, he’s added some salary to help his squad, but why would he add $30 mil guaranteed and get limited return? If he’s going to spend $30 mil, he’d be better served breaking it up

 

If he trades Myers back, he’s only adding a little over $9mill per year for Price.

 

Also, saying Cano was really good because he was cheating might not be the selling point you’re arguing it is...

[moonslav59]

If Price was a Yankee, I’d understand that we are stuck with him. The first time he shows anything positive, I put out feelers and would be willing to eat up to half the contract

 

It's not like we don't see the downside of Price. He's been showing something positive, too. 2017 was the only year, he gave us basically nothing

 

He's pitched 283 innings in the past 2 years at a 6.2 bWAR and 4.7 fWAR. While the IP'd are not great, they still have provided value, and I'm not even counting the 2018 playoff performances. (He's over 307 IP counting the playoffs.)

 

Your guy, James Paxton has about 310 IP the last 2 years combined at a 5.1 bWAR and 7.2 fWAR, and had a worse IP record, other than 2017, than Price beforehand. (Even 2017, Price gave us a 1.5 or 1.6 WAR.)

 

Taking on Myers's contract would offset enough of Price's deal to make it worth it for SD, despite what you think. Myers gives them very little. He's avergaed a 1.0 WAR the last 3 years.

 

This type of deal makes sense to both sides.

Edited December 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

“My guy” Paxton is on a 1 year deal at about 1/3 the AAV of Price.

 

Also, comparing the two is just stupid and you’re better than that. Price is on an untradeable contract, is 34 years old and is coming off wrist surgery on his throwing wrist. Paxton is on a one year contract, is 3 years younger and has outperformed Price the last 3 seasons. Price has averaged about 2WAR the last 3 years. Paxton has averaged nearly 4WAR per over the same span

[moonslav59]

“My guy” Paxton is on a 1 year deal at about 1/3 the AAV of Price.

 

Also, comparing the two is just stupid and you’re better than that. Price is on an untradeable contract, is 34 years old and is coming off wrist surgery on his throwing wrist. Paxton is on a one year contract, is 3 years younger and has outperformed Price the last 3 seasons. Price has averaged about 2WAR the last 3 years. Paxton has averaged nearly 4WAR per over the same span

 

My point was about value. Paxton, who you gushed over has done about the same as Price, who you act like Price is valueless. You claim he has to do something positive to be tradable. He's been Paxton for 2 years.

 

I'm fully aware of the contract disparity, but I also know how much Myers is owed. He's owed $61M over the next 3 years. That's 2/3 of what Price makes and all that SD cares about- that and gaining a 2-3 WAR SP'er for about $10M a year.

 

From our perspective, the luxury tax savings would be way more than $10-11M a year x 3. Myers's luxury tax hit is just $13.8M/yr. That means nothing to SD but a hell of a lot to us. We'd save over $17M a year on the lux tax.

 

It's not unreasonable to think SD would pay Price $36M/3 (the difference between him and Myers) and we'd take Myers to fill our 1B hole while saving $17M x 3 years on the tax budget.

 

It's a match made in heaven. (BTW, I also suggested we could kick in a little cash and still make out.)

[notin]

It's not like we don't see the downside of Price. He's been showing something positive, too. 2017 was the only year, he gave us basically nothing

 

He's pitched 283 innings in the past 2 years at a 6.2 bWAR and 4.7 fWAR. While the IP'd are not great, they still have provided value, and I'm not even counting the 2018 playoff performances. (He's over 307 IP counting the playoffs.)

 

Your guy, James Paxton has about 310 IP the last 2 years combined at a 5.1 bWAR and 7.2 fWAR, and had a worse IP record, other than 2017, than Price beforehand. (Even 2017, Price gave us a 1.5 or 1.6 WAR.)

 

Taking on Myers's contract would offset enough of Price's deal to make it worth it for SD, despite what you think. Myers gives them very little. He's avergaed a 1.0 WAR the last 3 years.

 

This type of deal makes sense to both sides.

 

If I’m Preller, I’ve not only already offered Myers for Price, I’m checking in daily with Bloom to see if he’s changed his mind. But I’m not at the point of sweetening the pot yet.

 

And if I’m Bloom, that’s exactly what I’m waiting for...

[moonslav59]

“My guy” Paxton is on a 1 year deal at about 1/3 the AAV of Price.

 

Also, comparing the two is just stupid and you’re better than that. Price is on an untradeable contract, is 34 years old and is coming off wrist surgery on his throwing wrist. Paxton is on a one year contract, is 3 years younger and has outperformed Price the last 3 seasons. Price has averaged about 2WAR the last 3 years. Paxton has averaged nearly 4WAR per over the same span

 

Yes, the 3 year sample works better for you, but why not 2 or 4 or 5 years? We both cherry-picked, but teh fact is Price has proven he has value- certainly not anything near $32M value, but he has enough value that SD would want him, if the money part was balanced out.

 

bWAR in reverse 2019>2018...:

Price: 1.8, 4.4, 1.6, 3.0, 2.6, 3.6

Paxton: 2.2, 2.9, 3.6, 1.1, 0.7, 1.3

 

Last 3 years:

Price 7.8

Paxton 8.7

 

4 rs

Price 10.8

Paxton 9.8

[notin]

Yes, the 3 year sample works better for you, but why not 2 or 4 or 5 years? We both cherry-picked, but teh fact is Price has proven he has value- certainly not anything near $32M value, but he has enough value that SD would want him, if the money part was balanced out.

 

bWAR in reverse 2019>2018...:

Price: 1.8, 4.4, 1.6, 3.0, 2.6, 3.6

Paxton: 2.2, 2.9, 3.6, 1.1, 0.7, 1.3

 

Last 3 years:

Price 7.8

Paxton 8.7

 

4 rs

Price 10.8

Paxton 9.8

 

Paxton is a really good pitcher but he’s had a slew of injuries himself over the years.

 

I think it’s because he’s Canadian. A lot of non-Quantrill Canuck pitchers have had injury-plagued careers, very possible (re:my theory) due to the weather-induced shorter seasons they play in growing up. Rich Harden, Adam Loewen, Erik Bedard, Jeff Zimmerman. Even Ryan Dempster, back when he was a flamethrower for the Marlins. The list goes on...

Edited December 8, 2019 by notin

[harmony]

Paxton is a really good pitcher but he’s had a slew of injuries himself over the years.

 

I think it’s because he’s Canadian. A lot of non-Quantrill Canuck pitchers have had injury-plagued careers, very possible (re:my theory) due to the weather-induced shorter seasons they play in growing up. Rich Harden, Adam Loewen, Erik Bedard, Jeff Zimmerman. Even Ryan Dempster, back when he was a flamethrower for the Marlins. The list goes on...

Paul Quantrill's Canadian son, Cal Quantrill, underwent Tommy John surgery while in college at Stanford.

 

BTW, the Milwaukee Brewers have signed your favorite Keon Broxton to a minor league contract:

 

[notin]

Paul Quantrill's Canadian son, Cal Quantrill, underwent Tommy John surgery while in college at Stanford.

 

BTW, the Milwaukee Brewers have signed your favorite Keon Broxton to a minor league contract:

 

 

He apparently did not inherit his dad’s trademarked rubber arm, which was my original reference..

[Jack Flap]

Contrary to my hopes that the Red Sox would see the light and forget this business of saving tax dollars over fielding the best team possible (despite having a roster that's still built to win now, including a generational player in his last year of control), it sounds like the "not-mandate" remains in full swing:

 

“Nothing has changed with regard to that,” Bloom said. “Everything is still as it was laid out early in the offseason. It’s still a goal. And I think certainly a realistic goal, though obviously we’re not there right now. And there’s a lot of different potential paths you could line up to get us there. But that kind of ties into overall with the offseason there’s a lot of different things that could potentially happen. But it’s still a goal."

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/12/boston-red-sox-slashing-payroll-under-208m-still-is-a-goal-and-a-realistic-goal-meaning-multiple-trades-are-likely.html

 

 

If they persist on this path, I do think trading Bradley and a subsidized Price (and replacing them on the cheap) is the easiest way to get there.

[moonslav59]

Contrary to my hopes that the Red Sox would see the light and forget this business of saving tax dollars over fielding the best team possible (despite having a roster that's still built to win now, including a generational player in his last year of control), it sounds like the "not-mandate" remains in full swing:

 

“Nothing has changed with regard to that,” Bloom said. “Everything is still as it was laid out early in the offseason. It’s still a goal. And I think certainly a realistic goal, though obviously we’re not there right now. And there’s a lot of different potential paths you could line up to get us there. But that kind of ties into overall with the offseason there’s a lot of different things that could potentially happen. But it’s still a goal."

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/12/boston-red-sox-slashing-payroll-under-208m-still-is-a-goal-and-a-realistic-goal-meaning-multiple-trades-are-likely.html

 

 

If they persist on this path, I do think trading Bradley and a subsidized Price (and replacing them on the cheap) is the easiest way to get there.

 

If we can replace JBJ with a great defensive CF making min wage, we won't be losing much in CF.

 

Losing Price, to me, is just losing the potential of Price getting healthy and returning to form. I don't see the odds of that as being very good, so trading him makes more sense. If he stays unhealthy or continues to decline or both, what have we lost that we wouldn't have already lost by keeping him?

 

The major answer is money. If we can save some by dealing him and maybe get lucky with a resurgent Myers playing 1B for 1-3 years.

 

Just trading JBJ and Price would allow us to obtain a few role players and maybe give us a chance at one last hurrah in 2020. If July comes around and we're 10 back, I doubt anyone would be strongly opposed to trading players who will be gone or likely gone after 2020 (Betts & JD).

 

I'm hopeful we can keep our "down time" to just 1-2 years. I know that sounds sad and a bit tragic when you consider we'll still be neat the luxury tax the whole time not contending, but it is what it is.

 

We will likely lose JD's contract (and production) after 2020.

 

Hopefully, we bring Betts back, but if we don't, we'll have a lot of budget space next winter.

 

We lose Pedey after 2021.

 

Eovaldi & Price after 2022.

 

[notin]

Contrary to my hopes that the Red Sox would see the light and forget this business of saving tax dollars over fielding the best team possible (despite having a roster that's still built to win now, including a generational player in his last year of control), it sounds like the "not-mandate" remains in full swing:

 

“Nothing has changed with regard to that,” Bloom said. “Everything is still as it was laid out early in the offseason. It’s still a goal. And I think certainly a realistic goal, though obviously we’re not there right now. And there’s a lot of different potential paths you could line up to get us there. But that kind of ties into overall with the offseason there’s a lot of different things that could potentially happen. But it’s still a goal."

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/12/boston-red-sox-slashing-payroll-under-208m-still-is-a-goal-and-a-realistic-goal-meaning-multiple-trades-are-likely.html

 

 

If they persist on this path, I do think trading Bradley and a subsidized Price (and replacing them on the cheap) is the easiest way to get there.

 

If they keep Bradley, I won't be crushed. While it does seem like $11mill mght be a lot for w glove-first CF, it's very much in line with Kiermaier's salary.

 

If they don't trade Eovaldi, I might be crushed...

[mvp 78]

Pillar still available?

[Jasonbay44]

Pillar still available?

This is latest on Pillar from RotoWorld:

 

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that eight teams have checked in on Kevin Pillar.

Pillar was non-tendered by the Giants earlier this week, as they didn't want to pay him the nearly $10 million he was set to earn in arbitration this winter. Still, while Pillar has on-base issues, he remains a plus defender with some power and speed. The 30-year-old should be able to land a starting center field job somewhere.

 

I don't know what his price would be, but he should be the type of guy Sox target to replace Bradley. He is just as good defensively. Pillar does have a putrid OBP, but he still makes thing happen. He has pop, some speed, can steal bases, etc.

[notin]

This is latest on Pillar from RotoWorld:

 

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that eight teams have checked in on Kevin Pillar.

Pillar was non-tendered by the Giants earlier this week, as they didn't want to pay him the nearly $10 million he was set to earn in arbitration this winter. Still, while Pillar has on-base issues, he remains a plus defender with some power and speed. The 30-year-old should be able to land a starting center field job somewhere.

 

I don't know what his price would be, but he should be the type of guy Sox target to replace Bradley. He is just as good defensively. Pillar does have a putrid OBP, but he still makes thing happen. He has pop, some speed, can steal bases, etc.

 

THe problem is, any team interested in Bradley can take the cheaper flier on Pillar, save a prospect or two, and (likely) not have to pay $11mill for one year...

[moonslav59]

THe problem is, any team interested in Bradley can take the cheaper flier on Pillar, save a prospect or two, and (likely) not have to pay $11mill for one year...

 

There's not many CF'ers on the market, but for the same reasons I think trading JBJ is what's best for the team (mostly budget), I do wonder why other teams are so interested. I guess they may not have tight budgets.

[notin]

There's not many CF'ers on the market, but for the same reasons I think trading JBJ is what's best for the team (mostly budget), I do wonder why other teams are so interested. I guess they may not have tight budgets.

 

Who is interested in Bradley so far?

 

I think if the Sox do trade him, the return is not likely to dazzle. I’m thinking someone like Arizona’s Matt Andriese, whom Bloom has both acquired and desalt before....

[moonslav59]

Who is interested in Bradley so far?

 

I think if the Sox do trade him, the return is not likely to dazzle. I’m thinking someone like Arizona’s Matt Andriese, whom Bloom has both acquired and desalt before....

 

I heard the Mets.

[notin]

I heard the Mets.

 

 

While I do doubt they view Marisnick as the full time answer, I think they have some issues with other needs and limited budget that might prohibit trading for Bradley without dumping some cash back.

 

Now the Sox might be amenable to taking some cash back, as long as resetting is still within striking distance...

[moonslav59]

While I do doubt they view Marisnick as the full time answer, I think they have some issues with other needs and limited budget that might prohibit trading for Bradley without dumping some cash back.

 

Now the Sox might be amenable to taking some cash back, as long as resetting is still within striking distance...

 

Not much wiggle room, unless we dump Eovaldi or Price.