Bloom move your asssssss

[moonslav59]

If they can re-set this year without trading Betts I'm fine with it. I'm just opposed to trading him.

 

To me,maybe the best way to keep Betts long term is to reset this year.

 

If trading Betts and then re-signing him positions us better in 2021 and beyond, then maybe that's the best choice.

[Bellhorn04]

To me,maybe the best way to keep Betts long term is to reset this year.

 

If trading Betts and then re-signing him positions us better in 2021 and beyond, then maybe that's the best choice.

 

And my position is I don't think trading him really gives that big a boost to our chances of re-signing him.

[notin]

And my position is I don't think trading him really gives that big a boost to our chances of re-signing him.

 

It does if it positions the Red Sox to pay him more than any other team is willing to offer him...

[Bellhorn04]

It does if it positions the Red Sox to pay him more than any other team is willing to offer him...

 

But it doesn't. It's a relative drop in the bucket.

[Bellhorn04]

I think what determines how far the Red Sox will go in their offer to Betts is this question: 'How much is too much of an overpay?'

[Bellhorn04]

Take a look at the sweepstakes for Cole.

 

The Yanks got him because they were willing to go to an insane length of 9 years @ 36.

 

The Dodgers reportedly were willing to go 8 @ 36 but then backed out.

 

The Yanks were the team in the much worse tax position for this year. The Dodgers are well under 208. The Yanks are well over 208 and are in the Year Two tax rates.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thunk the problem is, the choices are either 1) trade Betts and reset or 2) don't reset. And the goal not a mandate is to reset...

 

I'm going with the strategy of resetting so they can sign Betts. This has to be an option unless he is refusing to stay in Boston -- I've never thought the Sox couldn't afford Mookie or would choose not to pay him; on this I'm taking their word for it. He's too important as a fan favorite and as a contributor to winning (which ultimately brings in the most fans).

[moonslav59]

But it doesn't. It's a relative drop in the bucket.

 

A 50% tax on Betts's next contract is a lot.

[moonslav59]

I'm going with the strategy of resetting so they can sign Betts. This has to be an option unless he is refusing to stay in Boston -- I've never thought the Sox couldn't afford Mookie or would choose not to pay him; on this I'm taking their word for it. He's too important as a fan favorite and as a contributor to winning (which ultimately brings in the most fans).

 

Even if we don't get Betts to sign with us, resetting better positions us to build up our roster for 2021 and beyond.

[harmony]

Pure speculation, but consider this hypothetical:

 

1. Red Sox ownership interviewed three candidates to head up baseball operations

2. Two candidates said they were convinced the Red Sox could be contenders in 2020 while getting under the luxury tax threshold

3. The third candidate maintained the Red Sox could not be contenders in 2020 while getting under the luxury tax threshold

4. Red Sox ownership appreciated the candor of the third candidate, whom ownership then hired

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

A 50% tax on Betts's next contract is a lot.

 

But that's not how it works.

[moonslav59]

But that's not how it works.

 

My guess is, if we don't reset in 2020, signing Betts in 2021 and trying to reset in 2021 would seruiusly hamper any chance at winning in 2021 and probably beyond. If we tried to win in 2021 by spending, basically we'd be over the line by about what Betts will be paid ($34-39M/yr), and all would be taxed at 50%.

 

Just reset in 2020 and try hard to bring back Betts at a 20% tax rate in 2021. That's about $7M vs. about $18M in taxes.

 

Think of what $11M can get you on the open market.

[notin]

My guess is, if we don't reset in 2020, signing Betts in 2021 and trying to reset in 2021 would seruiusly hamper any chance at winning in 2021 and probably beyond. If we tried to win in 2021 by spending, basically we'd be over the line by about what Betts will be paid ($34-39M/yr), and all would be taxed at 50%.

 

Just reset in 2020 and try hard to bring back Betts at a 20% tax rate in 2021. That's about $7M vs. about $18M in taxes.

 

Think of what $11M can get you on the open market.

 

Just trade Eovaldi and Bradley. Much simpler solution.

 

If we need some youth, maybe trade Vazquez for a piece or two and let Plawecki start full time and bat ninth...

[notin]

My guess is, if we don't reset in 2020, signing Betts in 2021 and trying to reset in 2021 would seruiusly hamper any chance at winning in 2021 and probably beyond. If we tried to win in 2021 by spending, basically we'd be over the line by about what Betts will be paid ($34-39M/yr), and all would be taxed at 50%.

 

Just reset in 2020 and try hard to bring back Betts at a 20% tax rate in 2021. That's about $7M vs. about $18M in taxes.

 

Think of what $11M can get you on the open market.

 

 

Most of Tanner Roark?

[moonslav59]

Just trade Eovaldi and Bradley. Much simpler solution.

 

If we need some youth, maybe trade Vazquez for a piece or two and let Plawecki start full time and bat ninth...

 

Sounds okay, but why miss out on getting something for Betts. If keeping him helps us keep him, which I’m not convinced it does, then I’m all for this idea.

[notin]

Sounds okay, but why miss out on getting something for Betts. If keeping him helps us keep him, which I’m not convinced it does, then I’m all for this idea.

 

I hope it helps. We shall see.

 

As there has been so little bump on the Dodger thing, I suspect the whole rumor was either a little too overblown or someone asked a bit much. Given the Dodgers were reportedly not touching any of their top 11 prospects, one has to think it was not them. At least it shouldn’t have been..,

[moonslav59]

I hope it helps. We shall see.

 

As there has been so little bump on the Dodger thing, I suspect the whole rumor was either a little too overblown or someone asked a bit much. Given the Dodgers were reportedly not touching any of their top 11 prospects, one has to think it was not them. At least it shouldn’t have been..,

 

The Dodger "fit" just seems too real to be just a rumor.

 

The Dodgers want a big stud to put them in the favorite's slot. That's Betts.

 

The Dodgers can probably take on some salary. That's Price or Eovaldi.

 

They have some players that can help balance the money to just the extent the Sox can tolerate (Pollock, Kelly, Pederson).

 

They have some decent prospects/players beyond Lux, May and Ruiz that fit our positional needs:

(Simulator Value)

 

P

29.1 Urias

19.9 Gonsolin

18.3 Gray

12.2 Maeda

 

C

10.3 Cartaya

10.0 Barnes

4.3 Wong

 

OF

Peters 8.3

Rodrigiez 5.4

 

2B

21.9 Downs

7.6 Busch

4.6 Estevez

 

1B

3.3 Beaty

5.4 Vargas

4.7 Santana

4.5 Rios

 

I'm thinking a deal gets done with the Dodgers or Padres (Myers + young talent).

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The Dodgers fit is more than just a rumor because the Dodgers can give you prospects plus a major league quality OFer without decimating their team

 

If the Dodgers send over Pollock and his $42 mil over 3 seasons (he also has a player option for $10 mil for a 4th season), then the sox would get a quality OFer whom the Dodgers will not need. Their OF of Pederson, Bellinger, and Betts would be insane with Taylor shifting in to spell Joc against lefties. It keeps their infield intact with Muncy, Seager, Lux, and Turner with a catching tandem of Smith and Barnes with Ruiz coming up the pipe.

 

The Dodgers can afford to deal off Stripling and Gonsolin since their rotation for 2020 would be looking like this: Kershaw, Buehler, May, Urias, Maeda with Gray in the offing. If they don't make it, they'll have enough farm depth to deal at the deadline for a pitcher. The thing is, this dodgers team needs to go for it. They have been on the cusp too many times, and while sitting back pushes off their window, doing so leaves them with the possibility that they don't win anything.

 

For the sox, it gives them 3 yrs of control of an overpaid but useful major league OFer, three years of a reliable starter in Stripling who would shore up the back of the rotation and 6 yrs of a top flight, high octane pitching prospect who profiles as either a mid to upper tier starter or a lockdown closer who is MLB ready now. While this doesn't get you back a Wander Franco or Jo Adell style prospect, it fills some holes on the cheap while also giving you one high upside guy capable of leading a rotation in the future.

[jacksonianmarch]

This would also lead you to dump Price and/or Eovaldi. Dealing off Betts and getting back the package above adds $16.5 mil to the AAV while getting rid of Betts' projected $27 mil price tag. That gives you $10.5 mil back into the coffers. Now, you don't NEED as much back should you dump Price. Per spotrac, you need to dump essentially $24 mil to get under the cap. Doing the above deal brings you down to $13.5 mil. Dumping Bradley and signing a guy like Lagares for $2 mil saves you another $9 mil. That gets you down to a really manageable $4.5 mil. And with Gonsolin and Stripling in your rotation, you can afford to jettison one player and still have a 5 man rotation to start the year. Even if you eat half of Price's contract, you're under by $11.5 mil and have some money to add to the team at the deadline should your squad be in the hunt.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers fit is more than just a rumor because the Dodgers can give you prospects plus a major league quality OFer without decimating their team

 

If the Dodgers send over Pollock and his $42 mil over 3 seasons (he also has a player option for $10 mil for a 4th season), then the sox would get a quality OFer whom the Dodgers will not need. Their OF of Pederson, Bellinger, and Betts would be insane with Taylor shifting in to spell Joc against lefties. It keeps their infield intact with Muncy, Seager, Lux, and Turner with a catching tandem of Smith and Barnes with Ruiz coming up the pipe.

 

The Dodgers can afford to deal off Stripling and Gonsolin since their rotation for 2020 would be looking like this: Kershaw, Buehler, May, Urias, Maeda with Gray in the offing. If they don't make it, they'll have enough farm depth to deal at the deadline for a pitcher. The thing is, this dodgers team needs to go for it. They have been on the cusp too many times, and while sitting back pushes off their window, doing so leaves them with the possibility that they don't win anything.

 

For the sox, it gives them 3 yrs of control of an overpaid but useful major league OFer, three years of a reliable starter in Stripling who would shore up the back of the rotation and 6 yrs of a top flight, high octane pitching prospect who profiles as either a mid to upper tier starter or a lockdown closer who is MLB ready now. While this doesn't get you back a Wander Franco or Jo Adell style prospect, it fills some holes on the cheap while also giving you one high upside guy capable of leading a rotation in the future.

 

Taking Pollock just about evens up the actual worth of Price. (He's owed $42M/3 counting the buyout, so that makes Price cost $54M/3 or $18M x 3.) Now, that is assuming Pollock has no value, which is not true. The Dodgers getting Betts for Pollock is a huge gain. It's enough for us to get Gonsolin and Busch or Wong.

 

Betts & Price (no money) for Pollock, Gonsolin & Busch or Wong.

 

If we take Kelly, the money works better of LA, and we can get Pollock, Kelly and Gonsolin and Downs or instead of Downs- Cartaya & Maeda.

 

Pollock + Kelly= about $21M on the Lux tax. That saves us $11M a year for 3 years. That's huge. Losing Betts's $27M, this year, gets us way under to reset. It allows us to sign a couple remaining FAs, now and maybe make a move at the deadline.

 

$11M off 2021 and 2022 allows us to re-sign Betts.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who are you looking to sign right now? The only impact player left is Donaldson, and you've got his position set. Maybe Ozuna or Castellanos? But the former is coming off a subpar year and the latter is a butcher with a glove

 

Listen, if we were in November and nobody had signed yet, I would be on board with you. But right now, you HAVE to fill your holes in these moves.

 

Your current holes include:

 

1 starting pitcher- nobody is fooled into thinking Martin Perez is anything other than a JAG who is gonna get ripped. Also, nobody is fooled by the lack of durability in or the lack of depth behind your rotation

1 second baseman- now a mix of Dalbec and Chavis may handle it well offensively, but Chavis isn't a 2ber and neither is Dalbec. Maybe Peraza takes half the games there and the sox rotate in good bat and bad D for the rest. This one isn't required

1 high end reliever- the pen was run ragged and while some guys had good seasons, none have a track record beyond Barnes, and he is coming off a horrible season

 

You deal Betts and you add RF to that list

Deal off Price and you add another starter to the list.

 

If you deal Betts alone for Gonsolin, Stripling and Pollock, it fills your RF hole that Betts departure leaves, it fills the hole that you needed to fill in your rotation and Stripling pushes Perez to the swing guy/6th man. This allows you to dump Price for peanuts and still have 5 guys with MLB experience in a rotation. Gonsolin becomes the WC. Does he fill the hole in the pen or does he fill a role in the SP. And all of that for one year of Betts. Once you throw in Price, you are adding too much salary for a team that doesn't need him. Price is superfluous for the Dodgers. Kershaw, Buehler, and Maeda are better than Price right now. Dustin May was really good in 14 games for the Dodgers last year. Urias was dominant out of the pen and they plan to transition him to the rotation. Josiah Gray was one of the best pitchers in the minors last year. They are loaded with options and their top 2 are better than most teams. My bet is they don't view Price as much of an upgrade while his health is up in the air and they aren't going to want to pay him for 3 yrs to find out

[notin]

No impact players left, assuming you look at free agents. There are moves to be made.

 

One thing we don’t know is if LA would give up any of Pollock, Stripling or Gonsolin for Betts, let alone all three...

[moonslav59]

Who are you looking to sign right now? The only impact player left is Donaldson, and you've got his position set. Maybe Ozuna or Castellanos? But the former is coming off a subpar year and the latter is a butcher with a glove

 

Listen, if we were in November and nobody had signed yet, I would be on board with you. But right now, you HAVE to fill your holes in these moves.

 

Your current holes include:

 

1 starting pitcher- nobody is fooled into thinking Martin Perez is anything other than a JAG who is gonna get ripped. Also, nobody is fooled by the lack of durability in or the lack of depth behind your rotation

1 second baseman- now a mix of Dalbec and Chavis may handle it well offensively, but Chavis isn't a 2ber and neither is Dalbec. Maybe Peraza takes half the games there and the sox rotate in good bat and bad D for the rest. This one isn't required

1 high end reliever- the pen was run ragged and while some guys had good seasons, none have a track record beyond Barnes, and he is coming off a horrible season

 

You deal Betts and you add RF to that list

Deal off Price and you add another starter to the list.

 

If you deal Betts alone for Gonsolin, Stripling and Pollock, it fills your RF hole that Betts departure leaves, it fills the hole that you needed to fill in your rotation and Stripling pushes Perez to the swing guy/6th man. This allows you to dump Price for peanuts and still have 5 guys with MLB experience in a rotation. Gonsolin becomes the WC. Does he fill the hole in the pen or does he fill a role in the SP. And all of that for one year of Betts. Once you throw in Price, you are adding too much salary for a team that doesn't need him. Price is superfluous for the Dodgers. Kershaw, Buehler, and Maeda are better than Price right now. Dustin May was really good in 14 games for the Dodgers last year. Urias was dominant out of the pen and they plan to transition him to the rotation. Josiah Gray was one of the best pitchers in the minors last year. They are loaded with options and their top 2 are better than most teams. My bet is they don't view Price as much of an upgrade while his health is up in the air and they aren't going to want to pay him for 3 yrs to find out

 

If we trade Betts & Price and get back Pollock and Gonsolin and/or Maeda, we don't really have holes at OF and SP3/4.

 

We could then trade JBJ and sign an OF'er (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig).

 

We could also sign pen help (Hudson as a bridge to 2021 or Stammen, Cishek or Wood)

 

We could also trade for salary.

 

Pollock is superfluous to the Dodgers. If we get Maeda and Gonsolin, Price is no longer superfluous to LA.

Edited January 6, 2020 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

No impact players left, assuming you look at free agents. There are moves to be made.

 

One thing we don’t know is if LA would give up any of Pollock, Stripling or Gonsolin for Betts, let alone all three...

 

I would push for it. I think taking Pollock's contract would be a must for the sox and getting Stripling and Gonsolin is the real prize here. But Pollock fills the gap admirably in RF assuming he can stay healthy

[Tedballgame]

I would push for it. I think taking Pollock's contract would be a must for the sox and getting Stripling and Gonsolin is the real prize here. But Pollock fills the gap admirably in RF assuming he can stay healthy

I hope Bloom is reading this so he knows what to do.

[moonslav59]

No impact players left, assuming you look at free agents. There are moves to be made.

 

One thing we don’t know is if LA would give up any of Pollock, Stripling or Gonsolin for Betts, let alone all three...

 

Taking Pollock off the Dodger's hands is a big plus for LA. They have Verdugo, too.

 

The simulator, for right or wrong, has Betts at +50 and Pollock at -31.8.

 

Stripling & Gonsolin total 38.8

 

We should be able to get much more, even if this site is wrong.

[moonslav59]

I would push for it. I think taking Pollock's contract would be a must for the sox and getting Stripling and Gonsolin is the real prize here. But Pollock fills the gap admirably in RF assuming he can stay healthy

 

So, Betts for Pollock, Gonsolin & Stripling?

 

The simulator says this is off by almost a Ruiz or Urias+ Cartaya or Downs + Gray.

[jacksonianmarch]

Is Betts at +50 even with a projected cost of $27 mil?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hope Bloom is reading this so he knows what to do.

 

Best quote of the weekend.

 

Let's trade a Hall of Famer for mediocrity so we can free up money to sign more mediocrity; thanks for the tips, Yankee fans.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sentimentality gets in the way of reality. You’ve got one year of a hall of fame talent on a team that appears to be going nowhere and has made no measurable improvements due to budgetary constraints. You can deal him and fill multiple holes or you can let him walk for a draft pick after washing out in 2020. What do you want to do? You’re not dealing him for a top 10 prospect, it just ain’t happening