A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Slasher9]

A half-and-half approach to 2020 is not out of the question.

 

Keep Betts.

 

Pray for the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi.

 

Fill in the rest as necessary.

 

If it all goes sideways, trade Mookie at the deadline and get some prospects back.

 

is this us resetting this season? or are we still over with this plan?

if we are under - i can be on board.

[notin]

is this us resetting this season? or are we still over with this plan?

if we are under - i can be on board.

 

With the information we have, I think it can be done. But not much in the way of additions and no Bradley...

[moonslav59]

Apparently you like Travis and Ockimey a lot better than I do....

 

Or, you like Marco and Lin more than I do.

 

I'm not high on Travis, but I do think Ockimey can work as a strict platoon 1B/DH type. He has killed RHPs for years:

 

.898 in 2019 AAA

.968 in 2018 AA

.844 in 2017 A+

 

If Chavis (.742 v LHPs_ or Travis (.711 v LHPs) can do better vs lefties, we might be okay on offense at 1B.

 

2B looks much better defensively, if Marco and Lin play more than Chavis.

[moonslav59]

With the information we have, I think it can be done. But not much in the way of additions and no Bradley...

 

I think, if we lose JBJ's salary, we'll have about $5-7M to spend and stay under the first tax line.

 

That could get us a cheap defensive CF'er and a cheap RP'er. The rest is filled in house.

[notin]

I think, if we lose JBJ's salary, we'll have about $5-7M to spend and stay under the first tax line.

 

That could get us a cheap defensive CF'er and a cheap RP'er. The rest is filled in house.

 

... which means who replacing Porcello?

 

The incorrect answer here is Brian Johnson...

[moonslav59]

Our possible 26 man roster opening day 2020:

 

6 SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson (out of options)

7 RP: _FA__, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHernandez, Hembree

2 C: Vaz & Centeno (Leon if back at near min)

2 1B: Dalbec & Ockimey (or Travis from LF)

2 2B: Chavis & Marco (or Lin/Chatham)

1 3B: Devers

1 SS: Bogey

2 LF: Beni & Travis (or Duran)

1 CF: __FA__

1 RF: Betts

1 DH: JD

 

Other 14 on 40 man roster:

Chacin, Velazquez, Reyes, Weber, Houck, Shawaryn

Brasier, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Kelley

Lin, Chatham, Sturgeon or Gorkys

 

 

[notin]

Our possible 26 man roster opening day 2020:

 

6 SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson (out of options)

7 RP: _FA__, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHernandez, Hembree

2 C: Vaz & Centeno (Leon if back at near min)

2 1B: Dalbec & Ockimey (or Travis from LF)

2 2B: Chavis & Marco (or Lin/Chatham)

1 3B: Devers

1 SS: Bogey

2 LF: Beni & Travis (or Duran)

1 CF: __FA__

1 RF: Betts

1 DH: JD

 

Other 14 on 40 man roster:

Chacin, Velazquez, Reyes, Weber, Houck, Shawaryn

Brasier, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Kelley

Lin, Chatham, Sturgeon or Gorkys

 

 

 

Think they tender Wright?

 

1. He hasn't been a picture of health for a few years now.

2. Repeated off-field problems

3. Not only hasn't he been very effective, but the Alleged Manfred Missile should turn the knuckleball into a 60mph slow pitch home run in progress.

 

In a tight budget world, this guy might command $3-4million.

 

Let him walk.

 

I also question whether or not Hembree receives arbitration. It might not be a case they can afford to lose.

Edited September 17, 2019 by notin

[notin]

Our possible 26 man roster opening day 2020:

 

6 SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson (out of options)

7 RP: _FA__, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHernandez, Hembree

2 C: Vaz & Centeno (Leon if back at near min)

2 1B: Dalbec & Ockimey (or Travis from LF)

2 2B: Chavis & Marco (or Lin/Chatham)

1 3B: Devers

1 SS: Bogey

2 LF: Beni & Travis (or Duran)

1 CF: __FA__

1 RF: Betts

1 DH: JD

 

Other 14 on 40 man roster:

Chacin, Velazquez, Reyes, Weber, Houck, Shawaryn

Brasier, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Kelley

Lin, Chatham, Sturgeon or Gorkys

 

 

 

I'll take a crack at this.

 

SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Chacin or Acquisition, likely for Dalbec. My choice was Jose Urena is what seems like a fair deal that makes sense for both teams.

RP: Workman, Hernandez, Taylor, Walden, Brewer, Barnes, and an acquisition. Although trading Barnes might help a lot, too.

 

C: Vazquez and backup (Oscar Hernandez?)

1b: Chavis

2b: Lin

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi

CF: Acquisition. Either free agent (Hamilton, Lagares) or via trade (possibly for Barnes)

RF: Betts

DH Martinez

Bench: M Hernandez, Travis, OF (Sturgeon? Free agent? Gerardo Parra signed for $1mill last year and is a nice fit.) Or possibly Chris Owings. Owings has been awful the past two years, but plays everywhere and won't cost alot.

 

Remaining 40 man: Poyner, Lakins, Reyes, Shawaryn, Brasier, Kelley, Chatham, Velasquez (who also might make the bullpen), Sturgeon (personal favorite), and 6 more who the Sox need to add to avoid Rule 5. Maybe Ockimey, but I doubt he is a risky loss.

[Nick]

To me, if sportrac is correct, the Sox have $56mill for arbitration cases and everything else before they cross the luxury tax line. The arb cases for Betts, Benintendi, Rodriguez, Workman, and Barnes should easily top $40mill and will probably be closer to $45mill, maybe slightly over Hopefully not over that amount by too much.

 

As for stretching out Hernandez, he needs more than durability. He needs control, and lots of it I think he is best utilized in short doses, like from the bullpen. Unless he can find the strike zone a lot better, he will certainly have bad days out there, but also good ones. Put him in a role where he has to pitch 5 or 6 IP every time, he will absolutely have a bad inning every outing...

 

I'm just not sure if he'd be any worse than anyone else we may send out there as the fifth starter. I rather give young pitcher a chance.

 

Why do only have bullpen pitchers in entire system? One wrong turn and they are all converted to bullpen? Clay B and Jon Lester are the last two homegrown starters over the last ten years? That's pretty pathetic. We can blame that on DD too. We can't touch Ben (Moon) and Theo (Kimmi). They were perfect.

[notin]

I'm just not sure if he'd be any worse than anyone else we may send out there as the fifth starter. I rather give young pitcher a chance.

 

Why do only have bullpen pitchers in entire system? One wrong turn and they are all converted to bullpen? Clay B and Jon Lester are the last two homegrown starters over the last ten years? That's pretty pathetic. We can blame that on DD too. We can't touch Ben (Moon) and Theo (Kimmi). They were perfect.

 

It's easier to develop relievers.

 

It is a bit of an overblown fallacy that the Sox have not developed any starting pitching in the past 10 years. It's just that they haven't kept any of the ones they have developed. There have been some like Justin Masterson, Michael Kopech and Logan Allen that the Sox dealt away.

 

And they did acquire Eduardo Rodriguez before he ever hit the majors and turn him into a formidable starter.

 

But primarily the big problem has been the repeated low position in drafts, which means they already have pretty weak pickings at a position with very high attrition rates...

[moonslav59]

Think they tender Wright?

 

1. He hasn't been a picture of health for a few years now.

2. Repeated off-field problems

3. Not only hasn't he been very effective, but the Alleged Manfred Missile should turn the knuckleball into a 60mph slow pitch home run in progress.

 

In a tight budget world, this guy might command $3-4million.

 

Let him walk.

 

I also question whether or not Hembree receives arbitration. It might not be a case they can afford to lose.

 

Replacing Wright with Chacin makes sense, especially if Wright will cost over $2-3M.

[moonslav59]

It's easier to develop relievers.

 

It is a bit of an overblown fallacy that the Sox have not developed any starting pitching in the past 10 years. It's just that they haven't kept any of the ones they have developed. There have been some like Justin Masterson, Michael Kopech and Logan Allen that the Sox dealt away.

 

And they did acquire Eduardo Rodriguez before he ever hit the majors and turn him into a formidable starter.

 

But primarily the big problem has been the repeated low position in drafts, which means they already have pretty weak pickings at a position with very high attrition rates...

 

Also, Anibal Sanchez, Frankie Montas and Jalen Beeks.

[notin]

Also, Anibal Sanchez, Frankie Montas and Jalen Beeks.

 

Not a lot of them over that span, but still, they do seem to like to trade them away..

[moonslav59]

Not a lot of them over that span, but still, they do seem to like to trade them away..

 

No, it's certainly been our biggest farm weakness since Lester.

[notin]

No, it's certainly been our biggest farm weakness since Lester.

 

And really, Sanchez and Masterson were more contemporaries of Lester as opposed to pitchers developed since...

[dgalehouse]

The fact is that next year's success hinges to a large extent on the health and productivity of Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Nothing we can do about that except hope for the best . ( Although a strong and deep bullpen would surely help . ) Still , the first four hitters in the lineup are the strength of this team . Don't break that up , whatever you do . Losing Mookie or J.D. would be a killer .

[notin]

The fact is that next year's success hinges to a large extent on the health and productivity of Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Nothing we can do about that except hope for the best . ( Although a strong and deep bullpen would surely help . ) Still , the first four hitters in the lineup are the strength of this team . Don't break that up , whatever you do . Losing Mookie or J.D. would be a killer .

 

And while this season is disappointing, it's not like this team is horrible and unsalvageable. They actually still have an outside shot to win 90 games. The Sox are the Giants, saddled with a bunch of horrible under-performing contracts while facing a third straight sub-.500 season with no end in sight...

[moonslav59]

The fact is that next year's success hinges to a large extent on the health and productivity of Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Nothing we can do about that except hope for the best . ( Although a strong and deep bullpen would surely help . ) Still , the first four hitters in the lineup are the strength of this team . Don't break that up , whatever you do . Losing Mookie or J.D. would be a killer .

 

This year depended on that, too.

[Bellhorn04]

This year depended on that, too.

 

2021 and 2022 might depend on it too!

[dgalehouse]

This year depended on that, too.

 

It's Sept . 17 . And we are still mathematically alive . Beat the Giants . Sweep the Rays . Hope for a miracle .

[moonslav59]

2021 and 2022 might depend on it too!

 

It always does.

 

Look at the years the Sox won or came real close:

 

1967: Lonborg

1975: Tiant, Lee & Wise

1986: Clemens, Boyd, Hurst

2004: Pedro, Schilling, Wake, Lowe

2007: Beckett, Schilling, Wake, Dice-K

2013: Lester, Lackey, Buch

2018: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

 

It's no coincidence our ring years had some of our very best starting pitchers and rotations.

 

[moonslav59]

It's Sept . 17 . And we are still mathematically alive . Beat the Giants . Sweep the Rays . Hope for a miracle .

 

Glad to see you have a sense of humor.

[FredLynn]

And while this season is disappointing, it's not like this team is horrible and unsalvageable. They actually still have an outside shot to win 90 games. The Sox are the Giants, saddled with a bunch of horrible under-performing contracts while facing a third straight sub-.500 season with no end in sight...

 

Thats what makes this season so (and I will be nice)....disappointing. It IS a good team. They just didn't bother to show up this year. Its a team that should have made the playoffs.

[dgalehouse]

Glad to see you have a sense of humor.

 

A sense of humor is very important in life . Too many people take too many things too seriously too often . It's not good for you .

[Nick]

It always does.

 

Look at the years the Sox won or came real close:

 

1967: Lonborg

1975: Tiant, Lee & Wise

1986: Clemens, Boyd, Hurst

2004: Pedro, Schilling, Wake, Lowe

2007: Beckett, Schilling, Wake, Dice-K

2013: Lester, Lackey, Buch

2018: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod

 

It's no coincidence our ring years had some of our very best starting pitchers and rotations.

 

 

Say what you will, but we added Eovaldi to 2018 staff for current season. But it was DD's fault right? I remember everyone talked about how our staff would be one of the best in majors. Sometime it just doesn't work out. It doesn't mean it won't work out in 2020. We're still a playoff contender if JD returns and Betts remains.

Edited September 17, 2019 by Nick

[notin]

Thats what makes this season so (and I will be nice)....disappointing. It IS a good team. They just didn't bother to show up this year. Its a team that should have made the playoffs.

 

Disappointing and frustrating. But it also means a complete teardown isn't necessary...

[notin]

Say what you will, but we added Eovaldi to 2018 staff for current season. But it was DD's fault right? I remember everyone talked about how our staff would be one of the best in majors. Sometime it just doesn't work out. It doesn't mean it won't work out in 2020. We're still a playoff contender if JD returns and Betts remains.

 

I ripped that contract on Day One (and have been vindicated by none other than Bellhorn himself). I don't think Eovaldi's season was a surprise...

[jacksonianmarch]

The fact is that next year's success hinges to a large extent on the health and productivity of Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Nothing we can do about that except hope for the best . ( Although a strong and deep bullpen would surely help . ) Still , the first four hitters in the lineup are the strength of this team . Don't break that up , whatever you do . Losing Mookie or J.D. would be a killer .

 

And your next year's success will directly be linked to the play of the Yanks and Rays. The sox no longer have the most talent or the deepest squad. So they need to get their house right AND have another house fold. That isn't a good measure for success

[harmony]

The fact is that next year's success hinges to a large extent on the health and productivity of Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Nothing we can do about that except hope for the best . ( Although a strong and deep bullpen would surely help . ) Still , the first four hitters in the lineup are the strength of this team . Don't break that up , whatever you do . Losing Mookie or J.D. would be a killer .

The uncertain futures of Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi make for a challenging offseason for the Red Sox front office. The difficulties are compounded by the loss of Rick Porcello, the lack of promising starters in the pipeline and questions about whether Eduardo Rodriguez can repeat his 2019 success.

 

This outsider will follow with great interest.

[jacksonianmarch]

I ripped that contract on Day One (and have been vindicated by none other than Bellhorn himself). I don't think Eovaldi's season was a surprise...

 

Eovaldi's season is exactly what I expected. I've watched him as a Yankee and this is what he was. Dominant for stretches, maddeningly hittable for others, on the shelf for most