A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Look at the year 2014. It was the year all these players had their first season with 200+ PAs or 75+ IP:

 

Betts

Bogey

JBJ

Vaz

Workman

 

We won't be seeing that again under this system and with this current farm.

[moonslav59]

Look at the year 2014. It was the year all these players had their first season with 200+ PAs or 75+ IP:

 

Betts

Bogey

JBJ

Vaz

Workman

 

We won't be seeing that again under this system and with this current farm.

 

Pretty amazing to win a ring in 2013, bring up all these guys and flop.

[moonslav59]

How about the Brewers: 15 games over .500 with 3 less runs scored than allowed.

 

Must be the great pen they have,right jacko?

 

(They are 4 slots below the Sox pen in WAR and have a 4.31 ERA & 1.30 WHIP.)

[Larry Cook]

As far as our 2020 outlook for position players:

 

Pearce and Moreland are moving out.

Holt, Leon and maybe Martinez are free agents. Let’s assume holt and Leon leave. Martinez would be stupid to leave, so I have him staying,

All but 5 million of Sandoval comes off the books.

 

What does that leave us:

LF - benintendi (homegrown)

CF - Bradley (homegrown)

RF - Betts (homegrown)

3rd - devers (homegrown)

SS - bogey (homegrown)

2nd - tbd

1st - tbd

C - Vazquez (homegrown)

DH - Martinez (back up OF)

Back up C - tbd

Bench 1 - chavis (homegrown)

Bench 2 - Marco Hernandez

 

I would like to see Chatham get a shot at 2nd.

I don’t think dalbec, ockimey or Travis is ready to be the answer at 1st, so we must go outside the organization.

We must go outside the organization for a backup catcher.

 

This lineup should be able to put monster numbers up in 2020. Even though Vazquez, devers and bogey will probably regress some. I expect Betts to be lead off and have a monster contract year, which means Martinez will have a monster year, and I expect benintendi to bounce back strong.

[moonslav59]

As far as our 2020 outlook for position players:

 

Pearce and Moreland are moving out.

Holt, Leon and maybe Martinez are free agents. Let’s assume holt and Leon leave. Martinez would be stupid to leave, so I have him staying,

All but 5 million of Sandoval comes off the books.

 

What does that leave us:

LF - benintendi (homegrown)

CF - Bradley (homegrown)

RF - Betts (homegrown)

3rd - devers (homegrown)

SS - bogey (homegrown)

2nd - tbd

1st - tbd

C - Vazquez (homegrown)

DH - Martinez (back up OF)

Back up C - tbd

Bench 1 - chavis (homegrown)

Bench 2 - Marco Hernandez

 

I would like to see Chatham get a shot at 2nd.

I don’t think dalbec, ockimey or Travis is ready to be the answer at 1st, so we must go outside the organization.

We must go outside the organization for a backup catcher.

 

This lineup should be able to put monster numbers up in 2020. Even though Vazquez, devers and bogey will probably regress some. I expect Betts to be lead off and have a monster contract year, which means Martinez will have a monster year, and I expect benintendi to bounce back strong.

 

No love for Chavis?

[moonslav59]

WAR for First Year Sox Players:

(First Year with Significant Playing Time)

 

+1.0 Walden (76 IP)

+1.0 Taylor (46 IP)

+0.7 Chavis (382 PAs)

+0.6 DHern (30 IP)

+0.4 Weber (36 IP)

+0.2 Lakins (20 IP)

-0.1 Shawaryn (19 IP)

-0.2 Marco (133 PAs)

-0.5 Travis (140 PAs)

[moonslav59]

130+ PAs

 

4.8 Bogey

4.4 Betts

4.2 Devers

2.3 JBJ

2.2 JD

1.9 Vaz

1.7 Holt

1.3 Beni

0.0 Moreland

-0.1 Leon

-0.2 Chavis

-0.2 Marco

-0.5 Travis

 

19+IP

3.6 Sale

3.4 ERod

2.3 Price

2.0 Workman

1.5 Porcello

1.0 Barnes

1.0 Taylor

1.0 Walden

0.6 DHern

0.4 Weber

0.3 Brasier

0.2 Lakins

0.2 Velazquez

0.0 Hembree

0.0 Johnson

-0.1 Brewer

-0.1 Shawary

-0.1 Thornburg

-0.2 Eovaldi

-0.2 Smith

[cp176]

Because DD almost bankrupted our farm system of major talent, we will need a few years to return it to a more ideal producer of ML talent. For the time being, we will need extraordinary development and oddles of luck to get an average of three ML entry players out of the people we currently have in the system. We won't know unless we try these young men out under fire. Something I wished to do in September, but the FO and management wasn't thinking that way.

 

Now, we need to hire good people in the front office and directors of player development and then have the patience to let them develop the farm. DD was not going to lead that effort and it was a reasonable move to say goodbye to DD and some of his cronys. The hard part will be finding and signing quality replacements.

 

major talent?

[notin]

Since you're being snippy....No I'm not f***ING kidding you.

 

You don't thing acquiring Chris Sale was a good move? You're f***ING kidding me right?

 

You think you can acquire a Chris Sale and HIS CHEAP CONTRACT with bunch of f***ing nobodies?

 

I didn't realize Buttery is now a candidate for Cy Young.

 

I'm pretty sure that this board was ecstatic with our outfield trio of Beni, JBJ and Betts.

 

You probably want to trade JBJ for Mike Trout.

 

DD came in to do the job asked. Sox came in dead f***ing last three of four years prior to his arrival.

 

He won three straight Division titles and a World Series.

 

Knowing stand up guys that play for Red Sox, I'm sure every single one of them including Sale, JD and Porcello are pointing fingers at DD for screwing up this season. Yeah, that's it. It's all DD's fault.

 

You asked what players the Sox traded away could be useful to the team this year and next. I named them. It wasn’t about undoing trades or division titles or blaming anyone. What prospects could the Sox have used. End of question.

 

And considering nearly everyone the Sox have traded made the majors with the majority having some success, it’s a long list.

 

Also I forgot to mention Jalen Beeks.

 

Not sure why you feel it so necessary to put words into other people’s mouths to make your point, but it was nice to be lumped in with JD, Porcello, and Sale. Although how you know them to be stand up guys is another matter.

 

Also are you saying you wouldn’t trade JBJ for Mike Trout?

Edited September 22, 2019 by notin

[notin]

major talent?

 

So you’re going to argue DD didn’t trade away any major talent? Less than two years ago, you tried arguing about the potential future of Bryce Brentz...

[jacksonianmarch]

How about the Brewers: 15 games over .500 with 3 less runs scored than allowed.

 

Must be the great pen they have,right jacko?

 

(They are 4 slots below the Sox pen in WAR and have a 4.31 ERA & 1.30 WHIP.)

 

What is their bridge? They are 47 for 72 in save opps but have 97 holds. So their Holds+Save per opportunity is 85.2%. That's really, really good. That means that 85.2% of the time the Brewers brought in a reliever in a hold or save situation, that reliever finished their night with the lead intact.

 

The Red Sox have 32 saves in 61 save opportunities. They have 84 holds. Their holds+ save per opportunity is 80% flat.

 

The Yanks have 105 holds and 50 saves in 77 save opps. The Yanks hold +save per opportunity is 90.6%.

 

The Dodgers, who have the best ERA in baseball but have been having difficulty with their pen have a 78% hold or save per opportunity.

 

The Guardians have the best relief ERA in baseball and they are at 88%. The Astros are at 87%. The Rays are at 84%. The Cards at 89%. The A's are at 83%. The moral of the story is that the Brewers have a good pen. And while it isn't entirely above everyone else, it has likely contributed to a few more wins. Now, it doesn't take much above .500 to be in the WC race in the NL, so the attrition in the NL also helps them..

 

I have been saying it for years. Great closers and relievers will consistency allow you to over perform your pythag. One of the best examples was the 2001 Yankees. We overperformed our pythag by 6 games and had an 89% save+hold per opp percentage. The only year during our halcyon days was 97 where we underperformed our pythag and they didn't count holds back then. But it stands to reason, if your best relievers lock down the times they are given leads, you will preserve more leads and win games you should win. If you win the games you should win then pull out the standard amount of games you shouldn't win, you'll end up pretty good

[dgalehouse]

Objectivity is a lost art . We all have our ideas and our opinions . And there are now so many stats to choose from that we can always find a stat , time frame or sample size to cherry pick in support of just about any position we take . The debate is endless . But in the end , there is only one stat that matters ; wins and losses . The standings of the clubs is the bottom line . There is no getting away from that .

[Bellhorn04]

Objectivity is a lost art . We all have our ideas and our opinions . And there are now so many stats to choose from that we can always find a stat , time frame or sample size to cherry pick in support of just about any position we take . The debate is endless . But in the end , there is only one stat that matters ; wins and losses . The standings of the clubs is the bottom line . There is no getting away from that .

 

I don't disagree about the W's and L's.

 

But to me the things that stand above all others are:

 

1. World Series championships.

2. Playoff appearances.

 

The Red Sox are the most successful team of the 21st century. A disappointing 2019 doesn't change that.

[moonslav59]

What is their bridge? They are 47 for 72 in save opps but have 97 holds. So their Holds+Save per opportunity is 85.2%. That's really, really good. That means that 85.2% of the time the Brewers brought in a reliever in a hold or save situation, that reliever finished their night with the lead intact.

 

The Red Sox have 32 saves in 61 save opportunities. They have 84 holds. Their holds+ save per opportunity is 80% flat.

 

The Yanks have 105 holds and 50 saves in 77 save opps. The Yanks hold +save per opportunity is 90.6%.

 

The Dodgers, who have the best ERA in baseball but have been having difficulty with their pen have a 78% hold or save per opportunity.

 

The Guardians have the best relief ERA in baseball and they are at 88%. The Astros are at 87%. The Rays are at 84%. The Cards at 89%. The A's are at 83%. The moral of the story is that the Brewers have a good pen. And while it isn't entirely above everyone else, it has likely contributed to a few more wins. Now, it doesn't take much above .500 to be in the WC race in the NL, so the attrition in the NL also helps them..

 

I have been saying it for years. Great closers and relievers will consistency allow you to over perform your pythag. One of the best examples was the 2001 Yankees. We overperformed our pythag by 6 games and had an 89% save+hold per opp percentage. The only year during our halcyon days was 97 where we underperformed our pythag and they didn't count holds back then. But it stands to reason, if your best relievers lock down the times they are given leads, you will preserve more leads and win games you should win. If you win the games you should win then pull out the standard amount of games you shouldn't win, you'll end up pretty good

 

These numbers do not support your position- rather the opposite.

[dgalehouse]

I don't disagree about the W's and L's.

 

But to me the things that stand above all others are:

 

1. World Series championships.

2. Playoff appearances.

 

The Red Sox are the most successful team of the 21st century. A disappointing 2019 doesn't change that.

Absolutely . The best way to win championships is to consistently make the post season . The Sox have done very well in that regard . And this year has certainly been a disappointment . A disappointing season that cost Dombrowski his job . Just as 2014 and 2015 cost Cherington his job . The bar has been set quite high .

[oldtimer]

As far as our 2020 outlook for position players:

 

Pearce and Moreland are moving out.

Holt, Leon and maybe Martinez are free agents. Let’s assume holt and Leon leave. Martinez would be stupid to leave, so I have him staying,

All but 5 million of Sandoval comes off the books.

 

What does that leave us:

LF - benintendi (homegrown)

CF - Bradley (homegrown)

RF - Betts (homegrown)

3rd - devers (homegrown)

SS - bogey (homegrown)

2nd - tbd

1st - tbd

C - Vazquez (homegrown)

DH - Martinez (back up OF)

Back up C - tbd

Bench 1 - chavis (homegrown)

Bench 2 - Marco Hernandez

 

I would like to see Chatham get a shot at 2nd.

I don’t think dalbec, ockimey or Travis is ready to be the answer at 1st, so we must go outside the organization.

We must go outside the organization for a backup catcher.

 

This lineup should be able to put monster numbers up in 2020. Even though Vazquez, devers and bogey will probably regress some. I expect Betts to be lead off and have a monster contract year, which means Martinez will have a monster year, and I expect benintendi to bounce back strong.

 

I have read that the White Sox may well have an interest in JDM for their DH. He would improve that position for them and help bring the young hitters along, plus they have the cash. JDM does sound disgruntled with MLB and the FA process, not the Red Sox. I had thought no one would step up, but after reading the article, it sounds possible.

 

The Red Sox have put a lot of effort into bringing Dalbecs hitting along and it looks like that effort was aimed at him joining the team at 1st in 2020. It makes some sense, particularly if they keep a left handed bat to platoon with him. Holt and even Moreland might be in play should JDM leave.

 

I believe Chavis will be the most likely choice at 2nd next season. The Sox hitting coaches are working on his ability to hit the high FB. An upturn by him would solve our 2nd base issue.

 

Chatham is an intriguing possibilty as a utility infielder with possibilities even to role play in the outfield. He is a line drive hitter who could add some muscle and become a solid backup. All three of Dalbec, Chavis and Chatham are low cost players and we do need some of those.

 

Our outfield is still a question. Beni appears to remain as a primary in 2020 and the hope is we find a way to retain Betts. The big question is Bradley. He has been a very good CF defensively but has enough years as a very streaky hitter to exxpect more of the same. At his likely FA cost, I think we will cut him loose and try to back fill him from the FA market or with Duran, who may be a year away from real consideration. It is clear that the Sox are trying to bring Duran along quickly so it wouldn't surprise me to see him getting a look during spring training.

 

No sure thing that either MHernandez or Travis will be around next season. We will need to make a decision about the backup catcher. It is probably time to move on from Leon but I don't see anyone in the organization ready to take over. Would we go to the FA market to find another satisfactory talent of just stick with a .189 hitter?

[moonslav59]

I have read that the White Sox may well have an interest in JDM for their DH. He would improve that position for them and help bring the young hitters along, plus they have the cash. JDM does sound disgruntled with MLB and the FA process, not the Red Sox. I had thought no one would step up, but after reading the article, it sounds possible.

 

The Red Sox have put a lot of effort into bringing Dalbecs hitting along and it looks like that effort was aimed at him joining the team at 1st in 2020. It makes some sense, particularly if they keep a left handed bat to platoon with him. Holt and even Moreland might be in play should JDM leave.

 

I believe Chavis will be the most likely choice at 2nd next season. The Sox hitting coaches are working on his ability to hit the high FB. An upturn by him would solve our 2nd base issue.

 

Chatham is an intriguing possibilty as a utility infielder with possibilities even to role play in the outfield. He is a line drive hitter who could add some muscle and become a solid backup. All three of Dalbec, Chavis and Chatham are low cost players and we do need some of those.

 

Our outfield is still a question. Beni appears to remain as a primary in 2020 and the hope is we find a way to retain Betts. The big question is Bradley. He has been a very good CF defensively but has enough years as a very streaky hitter to exxpect more of the same. At his likely FA cost, I think we will cut him loose and try to back fill him from the FA market or with Duran, who may be a year away from real consideration. It is clear that the Sox are trying to bring Duran along quickly so it wouldn't surprise me to see him getting a look during spring training.

 

No sure thing that either MHernandez or Travis will be around next season. We will need to make a decision about the backup catcher. It is probably time to move on from Leon but I don't see anyone in the organization ready to take over. Would we go to the FA market to find another satisfactory talent of just stick with a .189 hitter?

 

Betts, Dalbec, Travis & JD for Moncada, Jimenez & Kopech

[moonslav59]

The Tampa Rays have been praised for their farm and player development, but to me, they seem to do best getting the most out of journeymen players time and time again, and by knowing precisely the right time to trade their high performing players.

 

On their drafts, many feel they draft well, because they suck so often, they get higher picks than us, but this hasn't really been true since 2008. They have not picked lower than 13th but once since then.

 

Some history:

From 1999-2008, they drafted first 4 times (Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young, David Price & Tim Beckham), 2nd once (BJ Upton) and 3rd twice (Longoria & Brazelton). Since then, here are their first picks:

09 Levon Washington (30th)

10 Josh Sale (17) Justin O'Conner (31) Drew Vettleson (42)

11 Mikie Mahtook (31) Taylor Guerrieri (24) (Blake Snell 52nd)

12 Richie Shaffer (25)

13 Ryne Stanek (29), Nick Ciuffo (21)

14 Casey Gillaspie (20)

15 Garrett Whitley (13)

16 Josh Lowe (13)

17 Brendan McKay (4)

 

Some more history, we all know how well the Sox gamed the system to gain comp picks back in the day, but the Rays were pros. They broke a record back in 2011 by having 12 picks in the top 89 (10 in the top 60!). They had 10 comp picks! They used to trade for vets late in the season, so they could get a comp pick when they departed via free agency.

 

The problem is, they did not really take advantage of all those picks. True, they got Blake Snell with their 7th pick that draft (#52), but look at the other 11:

24th Taylor Guerrieri (from Boston for Crawford signing)

31 M Mahtook (from Yankees for Soriano signing)

32 Jake Hager

38 Brandon Martin (comp for Soriano)

41 Tyler Goeddel (comp for Crawford)

42 Jeff Adams (comp for Balfour

52 Blake Snell comp for Brad Hawpe

56 Kes Carter (comp for Benoit)

59 Grayson Garvin (comp for Choate)

60 James Harris (comp for Qualls)

75 Granden Goetzman (from A's for Balfour signing)

89 Lenny Linsky

 

[notin]

I don't disagree about the W's and L's.

 

But to me the things that stand above all others are:

 

1. World Series championships.

2. Playoff appearances.

 

The Red Sox are the most successful team of the 21st century. A disappointing 2019 doesn't change that.

 

 

I think that by trying to add on to dgalehouse’s point, you went further into proving it...

[notin]

Objectivity is a lost art . We all have our ideas and our opinions . And there are now so many stats to choose from that we can always find a stat , time frame or sample size to cherry pick in support of just about any position we take . The debate is endless . But in the end , there is only one stat that matters ; wins and losses . The standings of the clubs is the bottom line . There is no getting away from that .

 

When evaluating a team, wins and losses matter. But they don’t when evaluating a player...

[notin]

Betts, Dalbec, Travis & JD for Moncada, Jimenez & Kopech

l

 

According to baseballtradevalues.com, that deal would have to be slightly modified. If the Sox substitute Antonio Flores for Dalbec, that package would be sufficient to acquire Eloy Jimenez alone. To get the package you want, the Sox would need to ship the four players you mention to Chicago, and also include Rafael Devers and Tristan Casas...

[Larry Cook]

seems like chicago’s Problems are bigger than what piece Martinez could solve.

[moonslav59]

l

 

According to baseballtradevalues.com, that deal would have to be slightly modified. If the Sox substitute Antonio Flores for Dalbec, that package would be sufficient to acquire Eloy Jimenez alone. To get the package you want, the Sox would need to ship the four players you mention to Chicago, and also include Rafael Devers and Tristan Casas...

 

There's no way the CWS would take my offer. Betts and JD might be gone in 1 year, and they are not going for a 1 year window.

 

My offer was in jest.

Edited September 23, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

There's no way the CWS would take my offer. Betts and JD might be gone in 1 year, and they are not going for a 1 year window.

 

My offer was in jest.

 

In jest, yes. But fun to see how far it is from reality.

 

Now if the Pale Hose are interested in JD Martinez, I do hope the Red Sox are interested in Reynaldo Lopez...

[notin]

seems like chicago’s Problems are bigger than what piece Martinez could solve.

 

 

Not really. They’re on the way up and in the AL Central...

[Swiharts Ghost]

There's no way the CWS would take my offer. Betts and JD might be gone in 1 year, and they are not going for a 1 year window.

 

My offer was in jest.

 

Man Thankyou and many others here Kimmi Vegas Notin station and many more you folks are a family if you know it or not and even though this may have been one of the most excruciating years for Us here as fans ..You made it fun you made it smart you made it a place of refuge .I lost a few people in my life the last few years they died and they where huge fans of this team ...you plugged that hole for me ...you made it just a little easier to cope .I don't give a rip if this seems mushy .Thankyou folks and I have great hope that something special with this team is on our doorstep .

Edited September 23, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

In jest, yes. But fun to see how far it is from reality.

 

Now if the Pale Hose are interested in JD Martinez, I do hope the Red Sox are interested in Reynaldo Lopez...

 

I could see including Casas and maybe Duran & Chatham but not Devers.

[oldtimer]

I could see including Casas and maybe Duran & Chatham but not Devers.

 

You are more willing to trade away the farm than DD. Glad you're not the new GM.

[moonslav59]

You are more willing to trade away the farm than DD. Glad you're not the new GM.

 

I didn't say I wanted to make the trade. I was just speculating on what the cost might be.

 

Plus, I am willing to trade prospects, if it is for young, cost-controlled players with many years of control.

[moonslav59]

Promotions:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-announce-baseball-operations-promotions.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook