A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[harmony]

Measures the Red Sox take to remain “somewhat competitive” in 2020 are the measures that will make it increasingly difficult to be more competitive in 2021 and beyond.

 

That’s the conundrum.

[notin]

Measures the Red Sox take to remain “somewhat competitive” in 2020 are the measures that will make it increasingly difficult to be more competitive in 2021 and beyond.

 

That’s the conundrum.

 

Not necessarily...

[Bellhorn04]

Measures the Red Sox take to remain “somewhat competitive” in 2020 are the measures that will make it increasingly difficult to be more competitive in 2021 and beyond.

 

That’s the conundrum.

 

Well, it's not really as simple as that at all.

 

They might keep Betts and JBJ to start 2020, and trade them at the deadline if they fall out of the race.

 

There are myriad possibilities.

[oldtimer]

I don’t think shedding Eovaldi’s contract is worthwhile. The amount of money the Sox would have to pay plus the amount to replace him with another pitcher is probably greater than his salary. Possibly by a lot.

 

At first when you said “eat Pedroia’s contract,” I also thought you meant in some sort of trade. But I can see where you could also just mean that the Sox are stuck with it. Can you clarify?

 

Yes, I meat to say the Sox are stuck with Pedroia's contract. No one would trade for him as he unlikelly will ever play MLB again.

 

Of the three large pitching contracts in question, I think only Eovaldi offers and chance of being offloaded and probably we would have to lessen his cost somewhat. In my view its one of value to us versus what we might offload. I don't see him as having a lot of worth to the Sox. I may be wrong as this is a complex game, but if his monetized worth is $5 Mil a year and we could offload $12 mil of that, it would make sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I meat to say the Sox are stuck with Pedroia's contract. No one would trade for him as he unlikelly will ever play MLB again.

 

Of the three large pitching contracts in question, I think only Eovaldi offers and chance of being offloaded and probably we would have to lessen his cost somewhat. In my view its one of value to us versus what we might offload. I don't see him as having a lot of worth to the Sox. I may be wrong as this is a complex game, but if his monetized worth is $5 Mil a year and we could offload $12 mil of that, it would make sense.

 

If we let Porcello go and trade Eovaldi, that leaves us with 3 starters, one of who, Sale, still has some serious question marks hanging over him, another, Price, who has some question marks as well.

[moonslav59]

Measures the Red Sox take to remain “somewhat competitive” in 2020 are the measures that will make it increasingly difficult to be more competitive in 2021 and beyond.

 

That’s the conundrum.

 

It might be harder to draft better players with the 14th pick vs the 20th, but if staying "somewhat competitive" means extending Betts, one could view that as helping us be more competitive in 2021 ans beyond.

 

I do see the logic in thinking let's go total reset for 2020, and deal away every player not viewed as being helpful in 2021, but the bigger decision is do you expand that thinking to 2022 as well?

 

Guys like ERod, Workman and Barnes could all be very key pieces to returning to glory in 2021, but it sort of forces a 1 year window and not a longer term plan- not that we can't extend or resign most or all of those three.

 

My guess is JBJ and all the FAs go, even Holt. We may look to trade JD (assuming he does not opt out). Trading Price, Sale and/or Eovaldi when their stock is low doesn't seems like a good idea, despite opening up some partial future spending space. I could see trading one of them at the deadline.

 

[a700hitter]

Turns out we could have used Moncada at 2nd base and it was predictable that Pedey wouldn't be back. An interesting point is the Moncada struggled in the strikeout department but has made strides in that area. We have Chavis who has struggled as well and maybe the seasoning will produce much better results in his second season. Nice to be optimistic about something.

Putting any reliance on Pedey coming back or Nunez being useful when Lemahieu was sitting out there. He was the best offseason acquisition by any team. Moncada was necessary to get Sale who helped us win 2 Division titles and a World Championship. You can't have it both ways. Plus, Moncada is not that good. I'd rather have Holt.

[dgalehouse]

The White Sox moved Moncada off second base over to third . Evidently , he was not a good second baseman . But some people love to hug their prospects . Prospects are only good for two things : Filling the vacancies needed to win or dealing them for someone who can . Hoarding them is a disorder .

[moonslav59]

The White Sox moved Moncada off second base over to third . Evidently , he was not a good second baseman . But some people love to hug their prospects . Prospects are only good for two things : Filling the vacancies needed to win or dealing them for someone who can . Hoarding them is a disorder .

 

Sounds like you think we should have traded Betts, Bogey & Devers back when they were prospects.

 

BTW, nobody wanted to "hoard" all our prospects, so let's not argue against a position nobody advocated.

[dgalehouse]

Sounds like you think we should have traded Betts, Bogey & Devers back when they were prospects.

 

BTW, nobody wanted to "hoard" all our prospects, so let's not argue against a position nobody advocated.

 

You don't want to trade them. And you don't want to hoard them . What would you do with them ?

[a700hitter]

The White Sox moved Moncada off second base over to third . Evidently , he was not a good second baseman . But some people love to hug their prospects . Prospects are only good for two things : Filling the vacancies needed to win or dealing them for someone who can . Hoarding them is a disorder .

Exactly right. If there is no vacancy for them to fill, there is only one other way to maximize their value.

[dgalehouse]

Sounds like you think we should have traded Betts, Bogey & Devers back when they were prospects.

 

BTW, nobody wanted to "hoard" all our prospects, so let's not argue against a position nobody advocated.

 

That is just being smart in evaluating these kids . You keep the ones that can truly help you . Trade the others.

[moonslav59]

That is just being smart in evaluating these kids . You keep the ones that can truly help you . Trade the others.

 

So, some are worth more by keeping them. That's three not two uses.

 

How are you so sure the ones we traded won't be the next Betts, Bogey or Devers?

 

That's kind of the point being made. Just because they are not them, now, does not mean that someday they will not.

 

Also, making this point does not mean I'm never for trading prospects. I've suggested thousands of prospects trades in my lifetime.

[moonslav59]

You don't want to trade them. And you don't want to hoard them . What would you do with them ?

 

Why are you being so Obtuse? Do you really not know there can be a happy medium?

 

There's a huge gray area between trading them all,since their only usefulness is by trading them all (or nearly all) and hoarding them all.

 

The Sox did keep some. Some of us think we should have kept a couple more of the prospects- not a radical position. Some are fine with trading all the ones we traded but think we could have gotten more (admittedly speculative). Some wonder, if we could have still won without 1 or 2 of the trades we made. Some could care less.

[moonslav59]

I had major issues with the Kimbrel and POm trades, and it wasn't about not liking the 2 guys we got. It was about giving up too much for a top paid closer and a SP'er with a very short record of success for some very good prospects- 5 in total.

 

That doesn't mean I wanted to keep even all those 5 prospects. I'd have preferred to trade Espi, Guerra and Margot for a low cost SP'er like Quintana than CK. We'd still have Allen and Asuage. Maybe we give MIL Asuage instead of Dubon. I realize this is totally speculative, but maybe we'd still have Allen and Dubon and a ring (or more). Maybe. Maybe not. It's okay to wonder and debate these what ifs.

[dgalehouse]

Why are you being so Obtuse? Do you really not know there can be a happy medium?

 

There's a huge gray area between trading them all,since their only usefulness is by trading them all (or nearly all) and hoarding them all.

 

The Sox did keep some. Some of us think we should have kept a couple more of the prospects- not a radical position. Some are fine with trading all the ones we traded but think we could have gotten more (admittedly speculative). Some wonder, if we could have still won without 1 or 2 of the trades we made. Some could care less.

The results are there. Trading these guys paid off as hoped and expected. Could we have won without it ? While anything is possible , I seriously doubt it .

[moonslav59]

The results are there. Trading these guys paid off as hoped and expected. Could we have won without it ? While anything is possible , I seriously doubt it .

 

Really? Seriously? We couldn't have won without Thornburg, Smith, Pom? Oh wait! We did win without them all.

 

Hell, we might have won without Sale or Kimbrel.

 

How about Kinsler? Just having Buttrey would have helped a lot, this year.

[dgalehouse]

Really? Seriously? We couldn't have won without Thornburg, Smith, Pom? Oh wait! We did win without them all.

 

Hell, we might have won without Sale or Kimbrel.

 

How about Kinsler? Just having Buttrey would have helped a lot, this year.

 

Really ? Seriously ? Actually , the much maligned Pom had a terrific year in 2017 . He is now healthy , setting up for the Brewers and racking up the strikeouts . Where is Espinosa ? It is a major , major stretch to think we might have won without Sale and Kimbrel . Highly doubtful . And we actually won an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles without our dear , departed prospects . I will concede that Thornburg was a bust .

[a700hitter]

Really ? Seriously ? Actually , the much maligned Pom had a terrific year in 2017 . He is now healthy , setting up for the Brewers and racking up the strikeouts . Where is Espinosa ? It is a major , major stretch to think we might have won without Sale and Kimbrel . Highly doubtful . And we actually won an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles without our dear , departed prospects . I will concede that Thornburg was a bust .

To make the case that we would have won a championship without Kimbrel and Sale isn't just a stretch, it is an exercise in futility and possibly idiocy.

[moonslav59]

To make the case that we would have won a championship without Kimbrel and Sale isn't just a stretch, it is an exercise in futility and possibly idiocy.

 

1) I said "might."

2) I said Kimbrel OR Sale NOT Kimbrel AND Sale.

[moonslav59]

Really ? Seriously ? Actually , the much maligned Pom had a terrific year in 2017 . He is now healthy , setting up for the Brewers and racking up the strikeouts . Where is Espinosa ? It is a major , major stretch to think we might have won without Sale and Kimbrel . Highly doubtful . And we actually won an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles without our dear , departed prospects . I will concede that Thornburg was a bust .

 

Yes, Pom helped us win the division once. He hurt us the other two years, and he never helped us win a ring, which is what I was focusing on, although I did not say it.

 

CK was a huge part of all 3 division wins but not the ring. We may have won the division in 2018 without him and his contract, presumably spent on someone else and the 4 prospects back from the trade or someone else had we traded them for another player.

 

Look, I admitted it was pure speculation.

[harmony]

Well, it's not really as simple as that at all.

 

They might keep Betts and JBJ to start 2020, and trade them at the deadline if they fall out of the race.

 

There are myriad possibilities.

A conundrum by definition is not simple.

 

The return on a Mookie Betts trade would likely be less at the trade deadline than in the upcoming offseason. That diminished return could be felt in 2021 and beyond.

 

Like most teams, the Red Sox face difficult choices.

[Bellhorn04]

A conundrum by definition is not simple.

 

The return on a Mookie Betts trade would likely be less at the trade deadline than in the upcoming offseason. That diminished return could be felt in 2021 and beyond.

 

Like most teams, the Red Sox face difficult choices.

 

Well, that's right, the difficult choices are neverending in running a successful major league team.

[dgalehouse]

The solution is to spend the money . Stop being scared of the luxury tax . Stop kidding people . Stay competitive . If need be , ride out the bad contracts . (Might just have to live with some of the mistakes .) Get rid of the easily replaceable dead wood and promote a couple of the youngsters , but you need to keep Betts and ( if possible ) Martinez . Don't gut the strength of the team . I wonder how much revenue will be lost by not making the post season this year ? We don't want a repeat of that . The Red Sox are a big market team . The goal always should be to make the post season .

[sk7326]

The Red Sox did a pretty good job replenishing the system after all of those trades - but the quality is at the lower levels. It's hard to maintain both at the same time - and the Sox are not exempt from that. Of course the big leaps in the system were in single A with Jimenez and Duran in AA.

[Bellhorn04]

The solution is to spend the money . Stop being scared of the luxury tax . Stop kidding people . Stay competitive . If need be , ride out the bad contracts . (Might just have to live with some of the mistakes .) Get rid of the easily replaceable dead wood and promote a couple of the youngsters , but you need to keep Betts and ( if possible ) Martinez . Don't gut the strength of the team . I wonder how much revenue will be lost by not making the post season this year ? We don't want a repeat of that . The Red Sox are a big market team . The goal always should be to make the post season .

 

The luxury tax rules in the current CBA were actually pretty well designed to be a little scary.

 

If you go absolutely nuts with the spending, you're going to be paying tax of almost 100%. Nobody really wants to pay double for anything.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox did a pretty good job replenishing the system after all of those trades - but the quality is at the lower levels. It's hard to maintain both at the same time - and the Sox are not exempt from that. Of course the big leaps in the system were in single A with Jimenez and Duran in AA.

 

I don't think we've done a "good job." We have a few far away promising prospects, but nobody in the top 100 and maybe only 2-3 in the top 150.

[dgalehouse]

The luxury tax rules in the current CBA were actually pretty well designed to be a little scary.

 

If you go absolutely nuts with the spending, you're going to be paying tax of almost 100%. Nobody really wants to pay double for anything.

 

Yeah . I wouldn't go crazy with the spending , but I would definitely try to keep Betts and Martinez . Lose Porcello , and try Hernandez there . Lose Panda , Nunez , Moreland ,Pearce , Leon , Wright and possibly JBJ . Go with Chavis , Marco and possibly Dalbec . Just have to wait out Pedroia . Hope for the best with Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Pick up a couple of bullpen arms . Stay competitive and if you go slightly over the cap , live with it .

[oldtimer]

Yeah . I wouldn't go crazy with the spending , but I would definitely try to keep Betts and Martinez . Lose Porcello , and try Hernandez there . Lose Panda , Nunez , Moreland ,Pearce , Leon , Wright and possibly JBJ . Go with Chavis , Marco and possibly Dalbec . Just have to wait out Pedroia . Hope for the best with Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Pick up a couple of bullpen arms . Stay competitive and if you go slightly over the cap , live with it .

 

It looks like it will possible to keep Mookie with his and other arb raises in 2020 while still resetting and maintaining reasonable competitiveness. JBJ will have to go and possibly either JDM or Evovaldi (more difficult) would help. Yes we have to wait for the Pedroia contract to play out and we have to hope that the Sale, Price and possibly Eovaldi contracts produce more positive results than this season. We should keep an open mind on which of the Holts, MHernandez, Lin, Travis, Chavis, Chatham, Dalbec Duran and Okimey we keep. It won't be all. We haven't seen a lot from Travis or Marco this season so it should open our vista to look closely at others. We also have two other pitchers in Houck and Mata who might make the grade.

 

By resetting in 2020, we can exceed the competitive balance Tax first threshhold in 2021 without severe penalties and we may need to do that to keep our young stars. I still don't recommend blank checks either in total salary or length of contract. We should pay in terms of worth and in consideration of risk.

[sk7326]

I don't think we've done a "good job." We have a few far away promising prospects, but nobody in the top 100 and maybe only 2-3 in the top 150.

 

Most teams don't keep that sustained level ad infinitum. The kids have to ... you know, perform. The Top 100 is not some immutable cast in stone list.