A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Eduardo Rodriguez has enjoyed a fabulous year but has a wide disparity of values by bWAR and fWAR.

 

The Boston lefthander and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales have each made 32 starts this year, Rodriguez totaling 191 innings and Gonzales 189 innings.

 

Rodriguez with 6.2 bWAR has more than doubled the 2.7 bWAR posted by Gonzales.

 

However, Rodriguez with 3.4 fWAR trails Gonzales with 3.6 fWAR.

 

It almost seems like bWAR for pitchers is more Old School than New School!

[Bellhorn04]

And that is the rub . The better guys are , the more they get paid .

 

The other rub is that the guys under contract get paid the same even when they stink or don't play at all.

 

There are a lot of rubs.

[notin]

Eduardo Rodriguez has enjoyed a fabulous year but has a wide disparity of values by bWAR and fWAR.

 

The Boston lefthander and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales have each made 32 starts this year, Rodriguez totaling 191 innings and Gonzales 189 innings.

 

Rodriguez with 6.2 bWAR has more than doubled the 2.7 bWAR posted by Gonzales.

 

However, Rodriguez with 3.4 fWAR trails Gonzales with 3.6 fWAR.

 

One website gives Rodriguez a surplus trade value of $26.9 million and Gonzalez a surplus trade value of $39.6 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Rodriguez is one year younger than Gonzales but has only two more years of team control while Gonzales has four more years of team control.

 

That Gonzalez has double the control but only 1.5 the trade value is a point in ERod’s favor...

[moonslav59]

That Gonzalez has double the control but only 1.5 the trade value is a point in ERod’s favor...

 

Yes, as to who is better.

 

ERod has been huge for us over the last 2 years. Reaching 200 IP this year would be a landmark event for Eduardo.

[notin]

And that is the rub . The better guys are , the more they get paid .

 

And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...

[Bellhorn04]

And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...

 

Certainly true, but with the raises in arb salaries, if your farm system produces a superstar like Mookie Betts, you're still going to be paying him a hefty salary in his last couple of years before free agency.

[harmony]

And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...

On that note, MLB Prospect Watch ranks Triston Casas No. 86 on its updated Top 100 prospect list:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

[oldtimer]

And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...

 

My feeling exactly. I presume a model for an ideal team would see around 3 good minor leaguers promoted every year to stay under the competitive balance tax first and/or second tier limits. Feeding the club in that way would keep a reasonable percentage of players in the prearb or low arb categories, leaving salary room for some higher paid star quality players, both home grown and also from the FA market. DD's approach did win a title but also placed us far from a perceived ideal model. It will take a disciplined and thoughtful front office to develop a plan for returning the team to full competitiveness. Getting the right GM is the first step of that process. Demanding accountability from the manager, coaches and players is the second step.

[moonslav59]

My feeling exactly. I presume a model for an ideal team would see around 3 good minor leaguers promoted every year to stay under the competitive balance tax first and/or second tier limits. Feeding the club in that way would keep a reasonable percentage of players in the prearb or low arb categories, leaving salary room for some higher paid star quality players, both home grown and also from the FA market. DD's approach did win a title but also placed us far from a perceived ideal model. It will take a disciplined and thoughtful front office to develop a plan for returning the team to full competitiveness. Getting the right GM is the first step of that process. Demanding accountability from the manager, coaches and players is the second step.

 

It's very difficult to keep feeding 2-3 solid players a year from your farm when you keep having picks from 24-30 or worse due to tax penalties. The IFA market is also very hard to dominate, these days.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, but we need to get some people in our scouting and talent evaluation area who know what their doing. Management has to set the tone. It's hard to demand accountability from the players, coaches and the manager, if an important area keeps coming up short.

 

Gone are the days where we can sign Devers and DHernandez or Bogey, Iggy & Montas in 2 international signing periods. Gone are the days of drafting Betts, Barnes, JBJ, Swihart, Owens and Noe Ramirez in one draft with the help of 4 comp picks or Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen & Bowden in another with the help of 6 comp picks.

 

Trying to rely on just spending big can never be sustainable.

 

So, who can we hope will be the "3 per year?" We'll need a lot of luck to get 3 every year from this group:

 

2020:

D Hernandez (unless you counted him for 2019)

Dalbec

Chatham

Ockimey or Duran

 

2021

Houck

Duran

Ward

 

2022

Groome

Casas

Mata

 

2023

Jimenez

Flores

Lugo

Decker

 

We'll need a hell of a lot of luck!

 

 

[oldtimer]

It's very difficult to keep feeding 2-3 solid players a year from your farm when you keep having picks from 24-30 or worse due to tax penalties. The IFA market is also very hard to dominate, these days.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, but we need to get some people in our scouting and talent evaluation area who know what their doing. Management has to set the tone. It's hard to demand accountability from the players, coaches and the manager, if an important area keeps coming up short.

 

Gone are the days where we can sign Devers and DHernandez or Bogey, Iggy & Montas in 2 international signing periods. Gone are the days of drafting Betts, Barnes, JBJ, Swihart, Owens and Noe Ramirez in one draft with the help of 4 comp picks or Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen & Bowden in another with the help of 6 comp picks.

 

Trying to rely on just spending big can never be sustainable.

 

So, who can we hope will be the "3 per year?" We'll need a lot of luck to get 3 every year from this group:

 

2020:

D Hernandez (unless you counted him for 2019)

Dalbec

Chatham

Ockimey or Duran

 

2021

Houck

Duran

Ward

 

2022

Groome

Casas

Mata

 

2023

Jimenez

Flores

Lugo

Decker

 

We'll need a hell of a lot of luck!

 

 

 

Because DD almost bankrupted our farm system of major talent, we will need a few years to return it to a more ideal producer of ML talent. For the time being, we will need extraordinary development and oddles of luck to get an average of three ML entry players out of the people we currently have in the system. We won't know unless we try these young men out under fire. Something I wished to do in September, but the FO and management wasn't thinking that way.

 

Now, we need to hire good people in the front office and directors of player development and then have the patience to let them develop the farm. DD was not going to lead that effort and it was a reasonable move to say goodbye to DD and some of his cronys. The hard part will be finding and signing quality replacements.

[Nick]

Because DD almost bankrupted our farm system of major talent, we will need a few years to return it to a more ideal producer of ML talent. For the time being, we will need extraordinary development and oddles of luck to get an average of three ML entry players out of the people we currently have in the system. We won't know unless we try these young men out under fire. Something I wished to do in September, but the FO and management wasn't thinking that way.

 

Now, we need to hire good people in the front office and directors of player development and then have the patience to let them develop the farm. DD was not going to lead that effort and it was a reasonable move to say goodbye to DD and some of his cronys. The hard part will be finding and signing quality replacements.

 

Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?

[moonslav59]

Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?

 

I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

 

I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

 

We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

 

Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

 

Dubon could play 2B or utility.

 

If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

 

[Nick]

I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

 

I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

 

We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

 

Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

 

Dubon could play 2B or utility.

 

If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

 

 

No Chris Freakin Sale without giving up Kopech and Moncada. His contract has been team friendly to boot. Lets' see what he does first before we cry like a little baby. How do we know he's not worth his new contract?

[notin]

Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?

 

You’re kidding, right?

 

Maybe Moncada, Kopech, Allen, Margot, Buttrey, Anderson, Dubon and Quiroz.

 

But why would we want 7 or 8 minimum wage players when we can sign a bunch of free agents and price Mookie’s way out of town..,

[oldtimer]

I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

 

I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

 

We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

 

Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

 

Dubon could play 2B or utility.

 

If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

 

 

You beat me to the punch. Consistent team competitiveness does require a contribution from the farm on a regular basis. Spending to keep players who distinguish themselves and effective trades and FA pickups are also important. The way baseball is currently arranged, balance is required. The Yankees are spending $233 million this year, so they are spending and they also were smarter with their farm. I am optimistic that the Sox can get their act together and reverse their current trend during the next couple of years. The first thing to do was to recognize that there was a problem. That was brought home in spades as we are out of the POs with 9 games to play.

[notin]

It's very difficult to keep feeding 2-3 solid players a year from your farm when you keep having picks from 24-30 or worse due to tax penalties. The IFA market is also very hard to dominate, these days.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, but we need to get some people in our scouting and talent evaluation area who know what their doing. Management has to set the tone. It's hard to demand accountability from the players, coaches and the manager, if an important area keeps coming up short.

 

Gone are the days where we can sign Devers and DHernandez or Bogey, Iggy & Montas in 2 international signing periods. Gone are the days of drafting Betts, Barnes, JBJ, Swihart, Owens and Noe Ramirez in one draft with the help of 4 comp picks or Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen & Bowden in another with the help of 6 comp picks.

 

Trying to rely on just spending big can never be sustainable.

 

So, who can we hope will be the "3 per year?" We'll need a lot of luck to get 3 every year from this group:

 

2020:

D Hernandez (unless you counted him for 2019)

Dalbec

Chatham

Ockimey or Duran

 

2021

Houck

Duran

Ward

 

2022

Groome

Casas

Mata

 

2023

Jimenez

Flores

Lugo

Decker

 

We'll need a hell of a lot of luck!

 

 

 

Now who’s kidding?

 

3 per year is a joke. The Sox called up at least four players for MLB debut this year alone (Chavis, Shawaryn, Lakins, Kelley).

 

3 per season is not a lot...

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he means 3 impact players.

 

Listen, you don’t need 3 all stars per season. But I do think you need to have 3 fill ins who at least can be average coming from within. If your core is intact and you can sprinkle in behind them with farm talent then you’re set. The problem becomes, when you need to go onto the open market to get a 2b or a bullpen or a 4-5 starter that you’re spending exorbitant money for limited return. That ends up killing your bottom line as well. Having your minor league system at least fill in the ancillary pieces can help and is necessary to stay relevant

[S5Dewey]

The 3 per year thing is a great concept, but it takes a lot of courage for a championship team because in order to bring up 3 per year a team also has to release 3 per year to keep the roster under 25 players. Suppose that after the 2018 season the Sox brought up Marco, Chavis, and Kelly. Without the benefit of hindsight, would you have released Holt, Moreland, and JBJ to make room for them?

 

The Rays aren't a championship team so they can "afford" to release 3 players in order to give an opportunity to 3 Minor Leaguers. They can gamble on players like that because their fans have no expectations.

[notin]

I think he means 3 impact players.

 

Listen, you don’t need 3 all stars per season. But I do think you need to have 3 fill ins who at least can be average coming from within. If your core is intact and you can sprinkle in behind them with farm talent then you’re set. The problem becomes, when you need to go onto the open market to get a 2b or a bullpen or a 4-5 starter that you’re spending exorbitant money for limited return. That eup killing your bottom line as well. Having your minor league system at least fill in the ancillary pieces can help and is necessary to stay relevant

 

If you expect 3 impact players per year from your farm, that’s probably way too high of an expectation. Especially since many impact players aren’t immediate impact players.

 

Really in large markets, you just need the farm to hold the fort for minimum wage at first. If they develop into a player’s who are worth paying heavily, even better

[jacksonianmarch]

If you expect 3 impact players per year from your farm, that’s probably way too high of an expectation. Especially since many impact players aren’t immediate impact players.

 

Really in large markets, you just need the farm to hold the fort for minimum wage at first. If they develop into a player’s who are worth paying heavily, even better

 

Most teams have 3 guys per year that filled in admirably. There are always injuries. Those fill ins might be 10 innings out of the pen or 4 starts worth or 2 weeks of playing the field. They don't have to be lineup stalwarts or rotation studs. Just enough depth to show the guys that your system isn't entirely dead

[jacksonianmarch]

The 3 per year thing is a great concept, but it takes a lot of courage for a championship team because in order to bring up 3 per year a team also has to release 3 per year to keep the roster under 25 players. Suppose that after the 2018 season the Sox brought up Marco, Chavis, and Kelly. Without the benefit of hindsight, would you have released Holt, Moreland, and JBJ to make room for them?

 

The Rays aren't a championship team so they can "afford" to release 3 players in order to give an opportunity to 3 Minor Leaguers. They can gamble on players like that because their fans have no expectations.

 

You don't have to release anyone outside of 3 guys off the 40 man. Usually teams stash some AAAA garbage on the 40 man as depth and jettison when the space is needed.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, nobody is saying these guys need to be rookies with their first taste of the bigs. Some of them could be former contributors on minor league deals that perform when your big guys go down

[notin]

Also, nobody is saying these guys need to be rookies with their first taste of the bigs. Some of them could be former contributors on minor league deals that perform when your big guys go down

 

It is hard to find struggling major leaguers on the verge of breaking out, although Cashman did find a few this year.

 

#stanislozolinthedrinkingwater

[moonslav59]

Now who’s kidding?

 

3 per year is a joke. The Sox called up at least four players for MLB debut this year alone (Chavis, Shawaryn, Lakins, Kelley).

 

3 per season is not a lot...

 

3 that make a significant impact is- for us.

 

Also, I took the 3 number as the minimum significant players needed per year to sustain competitiveness.

[moonslav59]

I think he means 3 impact players.

 

Listen, you don’t need 3 all stars per season. But I do think you need to have 3 fill ins who at least can be average coming from within. If your core is intact and you can sprinkle in behind them with farm talent then you’re set. The problem becomes, when you need to go onto the open market to get a 2b or a bullpen or a 4-5 starter that you’re spending exorbitant money for limited return. That ends up killing your bottom line as well. Having your minor league system at least fill in the ancillary pieces can help and is necessary to stay relevant

 

Let's assume it's 3 impact players- maybe not all stars but also not 0 to 0.5 WAR guys either. Let's say they stay for their full team control years, including their arbs, which may become expensive but won't reach FA value, unless you're JBJ. Let's say that's 5 years. That means those 3 are "cycled out every 5 years with the new 3 coming in. That's just 15 players at any given time giving meaningful value to the 25 and soon to be 26 man roster. The rest would have to be free agents. 3 is actually too low a number. 4 would mean we'd have around 20, at all times, and would only need 5-6 free agents- maybe some at a low cost.

 

While Chavis, DHern, Taylor, Shawaryn, Kelley & Lakins might total 6, but let's not kid ourselves. How many of these guys from this years "crop" will become meaningful players over the 5 years fo their team control? Maybe 2? That might be generous.

[notin]

Let's assume it's 3 impact players- maybe not all stars but also not 0 to 0.5 WAR guys either. Let's say they stay for their full team control years, including their arbs, which may become expensive but won't reach FA value, unless you're JBJ. Let's say that's 5 years. That means those 3 are "cycled out every 5 years with the new 3 coming in. That's just 15 players at any given time giving meaningful value to the 25 and soon to be 26 man roster. The rest would have to be free agents. 3 is actually too low a number. 4 would mean we'd have around 20, at all times, and would only need 5-6 free agents- maybe some at a low cost.

 

While Chavis, DHern, Taylor, Shawaryn, Kelley & Lakins might total 6, but let's not kid ourselves. How many of these guys from this years "crop" will become meaningful players over the 5 years fo their team control? Maybe 2? That might be generous.

 

I'd say 3, as long as we remember Taylor will exceed expectations as a role player...

[Nick]

You’re kidding, right?

 

Maybe Moncada, Kopech, Allen, Margot, Buttrey, Anderson, Dubon and Quiroz.

 

But why would we want 7 or 8 minimum wage players when we can sign a bunch of free agents and price Mookie’s way out of town..,

 

Since you're being snippy....No I'm not f***ING kidding you.

 

You don't thing acquiring Chris Sale was a good move? You're f***ING kidding me right?

 

You think you can acquire a Chris Sale and HIS CHEAP CONTRACT with bunch of f***ing nobodies?

 

I didn't realize Buttery is now a candidate for Cy Young.

 

I'm pretty sure that this board was ecstatic with our outfield trio of Beni, JBJ and Betts.

 

You probably want to trade JBJ for Mike Trout.

 

DD came in to do the job asked. Sox came in dead f***ing last three of four years prior to his arrival.

 

He won three straight Division titles and a World Series.

 

Knowing stand up guys that play for Red Sox, I'm sure every single one of them including Sale, JD and Porcello are pointing fingers at DD for screwing up this season. Yeah, that's it. It's all DD's fault.

Edited September 21, 2019 by Nick

[jad]

The math is pretty simple, no? The average career for an MLB player is 5.6 years. Let's just say you have a 25 man roster (even though it's effectively higher than that). Looks to me that you need 4-5 players from the farm even to keep a minimum roster. So just to have an average farm, you need all your first five picks eventually to become part of your roster.

[oldtimer]

Let's assume it's 3 impact players- maybe not all stars but also not 0 to 0.5 WAR guys either. Let's say they stay for their full team control years, including their arbs, which may become expensive but won't reach FA value, unless you're JBJ. Let's say that's 5 years. That means those 3 are "cycled out every 5 years with the new 3 coming in. That's just 15 players at any given time giving meaningful value to the 25 and soon to be 26 man roster. The rest would have to be free agents. 3 is actually too low a number. 4 would mean we'd have around 20, at all times, and would only need 5-6 free agents- maybe some at a low cost.

 

While Chavis, DHern, Taylor, Shawaryn, Kelley & Lakins might total 6, but let's not kid ourselves. How many of these guys from this years "crop" will become meaningful players over the 5 years fo their team control? Maybe 2? That might be generous.

 

I was assuming several of the star players would hang in there for 10 years. Guys like Bogie, Devers, Betts and E-Rod are likely to last well more than 5 years so the real number needed would be about 5 or 6 FA's on the 26 man, and some of those fill-in players on 1 to 2 year contracts. No doubt the roster needs to be brought into conformance with some sort of ideal as the way intelligent posters have talked here, we could lose 20 of the 40 man roster players. Hard to replace that many, even from a top farm system.

[moonslav59]

Nick, your point wasn't about the trades being good or bad. You asked about what players we traded would be wanted now, and it seemed like you were implying none.