A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Not one of your better questions . I don't see any similarities here .

 

Really? Look deeper.

[Bellhorn04]

The point is that we don't know whether a lot of the guys DD traded will become stars or not because it's too early to know. It's as simple as that.

[moonslav59]

The point is that we don't know whether a lot of the guys DD traded will become stars or not because it's too early to know. It's as simple as that.

 

It's just plain short-sighted to say, "Nobody we've traded has done well, yet, so the trades are all great."

 

We traded prospects- some far away one- for vets. Nobody expected the tardes to be even after 2-3 years.

[Nick]

So if Dombrowski was the GM in 2013 and traded Betts and Bogaerts to win a World Series, would it be so justifiable today?

 

f***ing yes.....

 

That means we would be finished with rebuild for 2020 season.

 

We play to win the World Series. Not to be the Atlanta Braves of few years back.

 

Moon, whatever happened to Chris Freakin' Sale? Now you want to unwind the deal?

[dgalehouse]

There are hypothetical questions , and then there is reality . The reality is we did not trade Betts or Bogaerts . And we did not trade Devers . The reality is we won three straight A.L. East titles . When is the last time that happened ? There is no reason to regret any of the deals .

[Slasher9]

I would prefer to have moncada playing 2b for the next 5 years in exchange for Poms “amazing” 2017 regular season....

[notin]

Not one of your better questions . I don't see any similarities here .

 

Ok simply put - at what point is trading away the future justified? Simply saying “these players wouldn’t help now” does ignore the possibility that they might help next season...

[Nick]

I would prefer to have moncada playing 2b for the next 5 years in exchange for Poms “amazing” 2017 regular season....

 

Moncada went to White Sox for Chris Sale. Where does Poms fit in?

[Slasher9]

Moncada went to White Sox for Chris Sale. Where does Poms fit in?

 

Espinoza would have been used to get sale instead of moncada.

[notin]

Espinoza would have been used to get sale instead of moncada.

 

Assuming the White Sox wanted him. But I think they still prefer Moncada...

[notin]

There are hypothetical questions , and then there is reality . The reality is we did not trade Betts or Bogaerts . And we did not trade Devers . The reality is we won three straight A.L. East titles . When is the last time that happened ? There is no reason to regret any of the deals .

 

Easy to say now.

 

Of course I’ve seen plenty of fans who say they would be willing to have the last place seasons inexchange for a World Series and be fine with it.

 

But then if those last place seasons actually happen ... not so fine.

 

I mean 15 years ago, most Sox fans wanted “just one title before I die.” Less than two years after an unprecedented third title in 2013, these same fans wanted the heads of Farrell and Cherington...

[dgalehouse]

Easy to say now.

 

Of course I’ve seen plenty of fans who say they would be willing to have the last place seasons inexchange for a World Series and be fine with it.

 

But then if those last place seasons actually happen ... not so fine.

 

I mean 15 years ago, most Sox fans wanted “just one title before I die.” Less than two years after an unprecedented third title in 2013, these same fans wanted the heads of Farrell and Cherington...

 

Except for the ones who did die .

[dgalehouse]

The idea that Sale could have been had for Espinosa is highly doubtful . While he was greatly hyped , the " next Pedro " had no record of success beyond the rookie league . And he still doesn't . We have to be realistic . Espinosa willl never be another Sale , much less another Pedro . Heck , he will probably not even be another Pomeranz .

[Slasher9]

The idea that Sale could have been had for Espinosa is highly doubtful . While he was greatly hyped , the " next Pedro " had no record of success beyond the rookie league . And he still doesn't . We have to be realistic . Espinosa willl never be another Sale , much less another Pedro . Heck , he will probably not even be another Pomeranz .

Sale wasn’t had for just moncada either.

Perhaps we can review their prospect rankings and think about whether rebuilding gm’s ever trade for high ceiling starting pitchers that get mentioned in the same breath as Pedro Martinez. ....

[dgalehouse]

Sale wasn’t had for just moncada either.

Perhaps we can review their prospect rankings and think about whether rebuilding gm’s ever trade for high ceiling starting pitchers that get mentioned in the same breath as Pedro Martinez. ....

 

Just because somebody mentions an unproven kid in the same breath as Pedro Martinez is not reason to trade Chris Sale for the kid . He might trade a Pomeranz , but surely not a Sale . No way .

[Larry Cook]

Desperate Dave was brought in to win a championship regardless of the cost. Check! Mission accomplished. Loved it!

 

But to accomplish the goal, desperate Dave has left us the following:

1.) the worst farm system in baseball.

2.) bad contracts we are choking on.

3.) broke down arms.

4.) a huge luxury tax problem.

 

Wow! Where does the new gm start?

[Slasher9]

Just because somebody mentions an unproven kid in the same breath as Pedro Martinez is not reason to trade Chris Sale for the kid . He might trade a Pomeranz , but surely not a Sale . No way .

 

Again...you realize moncada wasn’t the only piece, right? Do you know Espinoza ranking when he was with Boston?

[jacksonianmarch]

Desperate Dave was brought in to win a championship regardless of the cost. Check! Mission accomplished. Loved it!

 

But to accomplish the goal, desperate Dave has left us the following:

1.) the worst farm system in baseball.

2.) bad contracts we are choking on.

3.) broke down arms.

4.) a huge luxury tax problem.

 

Wow! Where does the new gm start?

 

There is a cost to greatness. The piper is getting paid now. The Sox have always maintained a great farm, which is why they won 4 titles with four distinctly different clubs. Their dead farm now points to an ugly and protracted rebuild unseen in these parts for decades

[harmony]

Again...you realize moncada wasn’t the only piece, right? Do you know Espinoza ranking when he was with Boston?

Baseball America ranked Yoan Moncada No. 3 preseason 2016, No. 1 midseason 2016 and No. 2 preseason 2017.

 

Baseball America ranked Anderson Espinoza No. 19 preseason 2016, No. 15 midseason 2016 and No. 21 preseason 2017.

[dgalehouse]

Again...you realize moncada wasn’t the only piece, right? Do you know Espinoza ranking when he was with Boston?

 

They had to include Kopech in the Sale deal . Not sure what that has to do with Espinosa . I don't know what the official rankings were , or who composes them . Or how much value they have . In my opinion , a kid with no track record beyond a brief stint in the Gulf Coast rookie league is not going to get you Sale . If you think it would , fine . There is no way to prove or disprove it .

[Larry Cook]

There is a cost to greatness. The piper is getting paid now. The Sox have always maintained a great farm, which is why they won 4 titles with four distinctly different clubs. Their dead farm now points to an ugly and protracted rebuild unseen in these parts for decades

 

I do not think our farm system is dead. We graduated two or three guys this year.

 

Hernandez looks like a fixture in the bullpen for the next five seasons.

 

Chavis is a key role player at worst.

 

In the pipeline we have houck, our future closer once he learns how to get lefties out.

 

Duran should replace Bradley.

 

Hopefully feltman snaps out of his year long funk,

 

The jewel of the system could be lugo. I think he could be a star down the road.

[moonslav59]

f***ing yes.....

 

That means we would be finished with rebuild for 2020 season.

 

We play to win the World Series. Not to be the Atlanta Braves of few years back.

 

Moon, whatever happened to Chris Freakin' Sale? Now you want to unwind the deal?

 

Nope.

 

I stilllike the deal, but I'm very concerned.

[moonslav59]

There are hypothetical questions , and then there is reality . The reality is we did not trade Betts or Bogaerts . And we did not trade Devers . The reality is we won three straight A.L. East titles . When is the last time that happened ? There is no reason to regret any of the deals .

 

Any?

 

Maybe "regret" is not the right word, and I've said over and over I'm glad we won the ring and it was worth it, but let's not sugar coat that those 3 division wins and the 2018 ring came with a price. The trades we made worked for what we wanted, but we gave up a good chunk of our future to have those wonderful 3 years.

 

We gave up some very nice young talent. Some will never amount to much, but some very likely will. To me, it's certainly okay to look back on these deals now and a few years from now and wonder "what if?"

[moonslav59]

I do not think our farm system is dead. We graduated two or three guys this year.

 

Hernandez looks like a fixture in the bullpen for the next five seasons.

 

Chavis is a key role player at worst.

 

In the pipeline we have houck, our future closer once he learns how to get lefties out.

 

Duran should replace Bradley.

 

Hopefully feltman snaps out of his year long funk,

 

The jewel of the system could be lugo. I think he could be a star down the road.

 

I'm optimistic on DHern, but he still has to bring down the BBs.

 

Chavis has a lot to prove, IMO. He had a great start to 2019, but really tailed off for several months. I like the big hits he got.

 

I don't see the next Betts, Bogey, Devers or Moncada in our system. Role players are needed, but we'll need some serious help, if we're going to get back to the top quickly.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Erod ,Xander ,Devers ,Mookie ,Chavis ,Vaz , Benny ,Workman ,Dhern,Evoldi ,Sale ,Price , Is a nice core for 2020 regardless what happened in 19 .I wouldn't bring JBJ back after watching him finish the year it's just time to cut ties with and him Sandy Leon ,Marco Hernandez ,Brazier ,Wright ,Porcello ,A team upgrade for JBJs bat and An upgrade of Porcello alone likely nets this team 10 to 12 wins more than in 19 . Edited September 15, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

These dates might not be exactly accurate, but here is a list of Sox prospects by the years they dropped off soxprospects.com's top 20 rankings list:

 

2004:

Lester

Youkilis

 

2005:

B Moss

Shoppach

 

2006:

Pedroia

Delcarmen

 

2007:

Lester

 

2008:

Ellsbury

Buchholz

Lowrie

Masterson

D Murphy

 

2009:

Bard

 

2010:

Reddick

 

2011:

Iggy

Doubront

 

2012:

Middlebrooks

Ranaudo

 

2013:

Barnes

 

2014:

Betts

Bogey

JBJ

Vazquez

Workman

Swihart

 

2015:

ERod (traded for as a prospect)

Johnson

Marrero

 

2016:

Devers

 

2017:

Beni

(Moncada)

 

2018:

Travis

Beeks

 

2019:

Chavis

 

2020:

DHern

_____

 

[notin]

Again...you realize moncada wasn’t the only piece, right? Do you know Espinoza ranking when he was with Boston?

 

Overall per BA, Moncada was #3 and Espinoza was #16...

[Bellhorn04]

We gave up some very nice young talent. Some will never amount to much, but some very likely will. To me, it's certainly okay to look back on these deals now and a few years from now and wonder "what if?"

 

The Hindsight Jury's duty never ends.

[oldtimer]

I'm optimistic on DHern, but he still has to bring down the BBs.

 

Chavis has a lot to prove, IMO. He had a great start to 2019, but really tailed off for several months. I like the big hits he got.

 

I don't see the next Betts, Bogey, Devers or Moncada in our system. Role players are needed, but we'll need some serious help, if we're going to get back to the top quickly.

 

The number one thing to decide is whether we will reset in 2020. I am for it and I think the firing of DD signals that is the thinking in the current front office and the new GM when he is selected. Once past that decision, the front office needs to have a mission statement, such as stay as competitive as possible while rebuilding the farm system and playing the underperforming contracts out. We know how much we have in the budget, which is $208 Mil less $15 Mil benefits and maybe $10 mil in wiggle room ($183 Mil). We also know the value of contracts on the books so budgeting will be a problem.

 

The next step is to decide how to remain at least somewhat competitive while we build back into a contending team. Your approach is to try to retain the best young players while letting go of players who may have value but won't be with us in 2021-2022 and beyond. The math also tells one that there will have to be some young fill in players used during at least 2020. So try to retain Betts, Devers, Bogie, Beni and probably Vaz, In the pitching area it would be hard to see E-Rod go and we have 3 or 4 BP pieces who could keep us somewhat competitive.

 

So we lose Porcello, Cashner, Moreland, Nunez, Pearce, Leon, JBJ, possibly Holt, and possibly both JDM and Eovaldi. We eat Pedroia's contract, and hope for at least some value from the Price and Sale contracts. Quite a few of our relief pitchers should be replaced. Maybe we keep Barnes but not Hembree.

 

The young fill in players are a crap shoot but worth a try. Chavis may showw improvement, Chatham is a possible utility guy, Dalbec stands a chance as they compete with Travis, MHernandez and Lin. Our three pitchers with a chance now are DHern, Houck and Mata. Maybe Duran in center, but that is a large reach.

 

There are a lot of things to decide and then take care of in the off season and it looks like we haven't really started yet. I was for getting a look at some young players. It hassn't happened. I now think we need to look at the coaches as we might do better there.

[notin]

 

So we lose Porcello, Cashner, Moreland, Nunez, Pearce, Leon, JBJ, possibly Holt, and possibly both JDM and Eovaldi. We eat Pedroia's contract, and hope for at least some value from the Price and Sale contracts. Quite a few of our relief pitchers should be replaced. Maybe we keep Barnes but not Hembree.

 

 

I don’t think shedding Eovaldi’s contract is worthwhile. The amount of money the Sox would have to pay plus the amount to replace him with another pitcher is probably greater than his salary. Possibly by a lot.

 

At first when you said “eat Pedroia’s contract,” I also thought you meant in some sort of trade. But I can see where you could also just mean that the Sox are stuck with it. Can you clarify?