A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

It's all about the question of the reset.

 

Even if we lose JBJ's contract, we'll have just a tiny bit of wiggle room that is usually the amount put in reserve for mid season pick-ups.

 

That would mean we sign no one at all.

 

This is what that JBJ-less 2020 team might look like:

 

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi + one from DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Houck

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Hembree?, Brewer?, Brasier?, Lakins? (SP>RP?)

C: Vaz + Leon (if he takes big pay cut) or Centeno

1B: Chavis/Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey

2B: Marco/Chavis/Lin/Chatham

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Travis/JD

CF: Beni

RF: Betts

DH: JD/Ockimey

 

Besides the obvious holes in the pitching staff, a defensive CF'er might be the highest priority with the little funds we'll have.

 

 

Now what if Bellhorn's recollection about the Sox stating they would not be able to retain all 3 of Bogaerts, Sale and Betts? As Bogaerts and Sale are already on board, what does that mean for Betts in 2019? Keep? Trade?

 

And does trading him impact decisions about Bradley?

[moonslav59]

Now what if Bellhorn's recollection about the Sox stating they would not be able to retain all 3 of Bogaerts, Sale and Betts? As Bogaerts and Sale are already on board, what does that mean for Betts in 2019? Keep? Trade?

 

And does trading him impact decisions about Bradley?

 

My opinions:

 

1) As much as I love JBJ, I'd trade or non tender him- possibly bring him back at a lower than arb cost, if possible, if we trade Betts.

2) It makes sense to trade Betts, if we know we can't or won't sign him.

3) I want to keep Betts, and I wouldn't have signed Eovaldi or Sale, if I knew it meant losing Betts. I'd rather have Betts than Bogey, but Betts at $33M vs Bogey at $20M makes the choice different.

 

I'd try to keep Betts, but $30-35M can get 2-3 very nice free agents, and the risk is spread out.

[kenmeister]

My opinions:

 

1) As much as I love JBJ, I'd trade or non tender him- possibly bring him back at a lower than arb cost, if possible, if we trade Betts.

2) It makes sense to trade Betts, if we know we can't or won't sign him.

3) I want to keep Betts, and I wouldn't have signed Eovaldi or Sale, if I knew it meant losing Betts. I'd rather have Betts than Bogey, but Betts at $33M vs Bogey at $20M makes the choice different.

 

I'd try to keep Betts, but $30-35M can get 2-3 very nice free agents, and the risk is spread out.

 

I don't think we should pay Betts more than Bogey, which means we will lose Betts if I were the GM.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we should pay Betts more than Bogey, which means we will lose Betts if I were the GM.

 

All I can say is "WOW!"

[notin]

My opinions:

 

1) As much as I love JBJ, I'd trade or non tender him- possibly bring him back at a lower than arb cost, if possible, if we trade Betts.

2) It makes sense to trade Betts, if we know we can't or won't sign him.

3) I want to keep Betts, and I wouldn't have signed Eovaldi or Sale, if I knew it meant losing Betts. I'd rather have Betts than Bogey, but Betts at $33M vs Bogey at $20M makes the choice different.

 

I'd try to keep Betts, but $30-35M can get 2-3 very nice free agents, and the risk is spread out.

 

I'd rather have Betts and an AAAA player than two mid-tier players.

 

The Sox could have gotten two lesser free agents instead of Manny for the same money. Would that have been a good move? They could have signed Mike Hampton and Ellis Burks for the same amount of money spent on Manny. Good idea or bad idea?

 

If anything, lesser players increases the risk. Because lesser players typically decline faster and are closer to being replacement level types by definition...

[oldtimer]

My opinions:

 

1) As much as I love JBJ, I'd trade or non tender him- possibly bring him back at a lower than arb cost, if possible, if we trade Betts.

2) It makes sense to trade Betts, if we know we can't or won't sign him.

3) I want to keep Betts, and I wouldn't have signed Eovaldi or Sale, if I knew it meant losing Betts. I'd rather have Betts than Bogey, but Betts at $33M vs Bogey at $20M makes the choice different.

 

I'd try to keep Betts, but $30-35M can get 2-3 very nice free agents, and the risk is spread out.

 

To reset or not to reset, that is the question. Make that decision facing the contracts of Sale, Price and Eovaldi along with Pedroia and we probably have a baseline of $86mil in underperforming contracts. against $208 Mil to spend. We also have Bogie and JDM at close to $44 Mil. With $130 mil already tied up and benefits accounting for $15 Mil we are left with $63 Mil for the rest of the club and probably some of that should be left for mid season moves.

 

I think Moon has estimated that Betts will cost $28 Mil for the final Arb year.

 

I want to keep Betts and try to be somewhat competitive in 2020, yet reset so we have more flexibility for 2021. With the other arb raises for keeper players it appears that something has to give if we follow the reset approach. One way is going for low cost players from the minors for starting pitching, 1st base, 2nd base and center field. Clearly there is also a need to reconstruct part of the BP.

 

As much as I would like to think we could trade one of our potentially underperforming pitchers (in addition to Porcello), it is not likely to happen. That leaves the question of what to do with Bradley and Betts front and center.

 

DD's approach got us the WS but has left us in this situation and it doesn't appear the be solvable. Do we keep throwing big money at it year after year and penalize our draft while only getting to quasi competitive or do we reset? Again, that is the question.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have Betts and an AAAA player than two mid-tier players...

 

Me too. I'm on record for wanting to offer Betts 10 years at $30M.

 

If we don't get him, we may sign 2-3 mid tier players and maybe do well.

[S5Dewey]

To reset or not to reset, that is the question. Make that decision facing the contracts of Sale, Price and Eovaldi along with Pedroia and we probably have a baseline of $86mil in underperforming contracts. against $208 Mil to spend. We also have Bogie and JDM at close to $44 Mil. With $130 mil already tied up and benefits accounting for $15 Mil we are left with $63 Mil for the rest of the club and probably some of that should be left for mid season moves.

 

I think Moon has estimated that Betts will cost $28 Mil for the final Arb year.

 

I want to keep Betts and try to be somewhat competitive in 2020, yet reset so we have more flexibility for 2021. With the other arb raises for keeper players it appears that something has to give if we follow the reset approach. One way is going for low cost players from the minors for starting pitching, 1st base, 2nd base and center field. Clearly there is also a need to reconstruct part of the BP.

 

As much as I would like to think we could trade one of our potentially underperforming pitchers (in addition to Porcello), it is not likely to happen. That leaves the question of what to do with Bradley and Betts front and center.

 

DD's approach got us the WS but has left us in this situation and it doesn't appear the be solvable. Do we keep throwing big money at it year after year and penalize our draft while only getting to quasi competitive or do we reset? Again, that is the question.

 

I'm all for resetting, but not in 2020. 2021 looks a lot more reasonable to me. I know I said this a few days ago but this is STILL one of the best teams in baseball IF you ignore the starting pitching.

 

There's no doubt that taking a chance on our starting three (Sale, Price, & Porcillo) is a huge gamble but I'd rather take that gamble in 2020 than throw in the towel and dismantle a team that's THIS GOOD overall.

 

But... that's just me.

[Slasher9]

I'm all for resetting, but not in 2020. 2021 looks a lot more reasonable to me. I know I said this a few days ago but this is STILL one of the best teams in baseball IF you ignore the starting pitching.

 

There's no doubt that taking a chance on our starting three (Sale, Price, & Porcillo) is a huge gamble but I'd rather take that gamble in 2020 than throw in the towel and dismantle a team that's THIS GOOD overall.

 

But... that's just me.

 

i dont disagree with you at all. but i believe if JH wants to sign Betts after next season he will want to reset the LT this season. if that premise is true...which do you prefer:

going for it in 2020 and then losing Betts

resetting 2020 and having Betts for the rest of his career.

 

i would go with the latter....

[notin]

I know I said this a few days ago but this is STILL one of the best teams in baseball IF you ignore the starting pitching.

 

 

"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the show?"

[notin]

i dont disagree with you at all. but i believe if JH wants to sign Betts after next season he will want to reset the LT this season. if that premise is true...which do you prefer:

going for it in 2020 and then losing Betts

resetting 2020 and having Betts for the rest of his career.

 

i would go with the latter....

 

Me too.

 

Although the latter plan will likely cost the Sox Bradley. Unless something crazy happens like JD opts out or Mookie takes a pay cut...

[moonslav59]

I'm all for resetting, but not in 2020. 2021 looks a lot more reasonable to me. I know I said this a few days ago but this is STILL one of the best teams in baseball IF you ignore the starting pitching.

 

There's no doubt that taking a chance on our starting three (Sale, Price, & Porcillo) is a huge gamble but I'd rather take that gamble in 2020 than throw in the towel and dismantle a team that's THIS GOOD overall.

 

But... that's just me.

 

I think we have to "ignore" the starting AND Relief pitching.

 

I do see the value in going for one more ring within this window, but I think trying to win in 2020 would mean signing someone good (or 2-3 good FAs), and you don't get "good" with 1 year deals, so trying to win in 2020 would further complicate the budget going beyond 2020 and making it nearly impossible to have a quick rebuild period.

 

Then, there's the losing Betts part.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Any chance we bring Moreland back?

 

Just kidding, really. But sometimes he can be impressive.

 

He's just such a chronic tease with the staying on the field part.

[notin]

Any chance we bring Moreland back?

 

Just kidding, really. But sometimes he can be impressive.

 

He's just such a chronic tease with the staying on the field part.

 

Depends on the budget and reset/no reset.

 

Dombrowski seems to love this guy. So if Dombrowski is back, chances are better...

[jung]

Me too.

 

Although the latter plan will likely cost the Sox Bradley. Unless something crazy happens like JD opts out or Mookie takes a pay cut...

 

The more MLB tries to push this power game (Manfred Missile, players that simply never change their stance, never grip the bat above the knob, approach every count as if is always 2-1 and swing out of their shoe laces, spread sheet driven decision making) the less valuable a Defensive Standout in CF like JBJ becomes and the more you would value a more consistent bat and absorb a bit of a compromise in the fielding. This is also particularly true if our rotation remains a mess. WE WILL NEED RUNS!

 

I think JBJ's arb money for 2020 will be $10-12M. Just too much to spend for a player with no upside remaining. Put Beni in CF and watch him flop about out there and get a big bat for LF or leave Beni in LF and get a more consistently hitting CFer than JBJ even if not a big bat.

 

Playing Manfred Ball has consequences and pitchers and defensive players are going to carry most of the burden over time. Truth is, they already are.

Edited September 7, 2019 by jung

[jacksonianmarch]

First thing’s first, you have to decide what you’re going to do for 2020. I think JBJ is gone regardless, but if Henry is trying to reset and avoid the massive surtax for going over 3 years in a row, his replacement might be Travis in LF.

[notin]

First thing’s first, you have to decide what you’re going to do for 2020. I think JBJ is gone regardless, but if Henry is trying to reset and avoid the massive surtax for going over 3 years in a row, his replacement might be Travis in LF.

 

The Sox can do better than Travis, but it might be something slightly more expensive like Gerardo Parra in CF.

 

LF won’t be tough to fill with a player better than Travis, (Nick Williams?). But CF makes more sense. Finding offense at cheap wages in LF is a crapshoot. Getting a dirt cheap glove for CF is safer...

[oldtimer]

Any chance we bring Moreland back?

 

Just kidding, really. But sometimes he can be impressive.

 

He's just such a chronic tease with the staying on the field part.

 

I appreciate what Moreland has done for the club. Certainly he has been a solid pro for us. He is now 34 and has what appear to be chronic medical issues which would limit him going forward. i expect he won't be resigned and the more than $6 mil will be better applied elsewhere. We have, Travis, Chavis and Dalbec as potential lower cost players to fill the void. The only problem I can see is the loss of both Moreland and Bradley will take two left handed bats out of the lineup. Do we keep Holt and or MHern to make up for that?

 

The question still remains about what JDM will do. If he does, there might be another lower cost left handed FA who would fit and be signed for a couple of years at a lower cost and who also might be able to shore up the outfield part time. I can think of at least one who could do that job.

[S5Dewey]

The Sox can do better than Travis, but it might be something slightly more expensive like Gerardo Parra in CF.

 

LF won’t be tough to fill with a player better than Travis, (Nick Williams?). But CF makes more sense. Finding offense at cheap wages in LF is a crapshoot. Getting a dirt cheap glove for CF is safer...

 

If they try moving Beni to CF and filling the LF spot they're going to be creating a log jam in the outfield. They'll have figured out by the ASB that Beninitendi isn't a CF'er. Then they'll find someone else who can actually play CF, move Beni back to LF to keep his bat in the order, and the new Flavor of the Day, the new OF'er, will become our 4th OF'er which in turn will push someone else off the 25 man roster.

 

But... I still think DD will keep JBJ, so what do I know?

[Bellhorn04]

I appreciate what Moreland has done for the club. Certainly he has been a solid pro for us. He is now 34 and has what appear to be chronic medical issues which would limit him going forward. i expect he won't be resigned and the more than $6 mil will be better applied elsewhere. We have, Travis, Chavis and Dalbec as potential lower cost players to fill the void. The only problem I can see is the loss of both Moreland and Bradley will take two left handed bats out of the lineup. Do we keep Holt and or MHern to make up for that?

 

The question still remains about what JDM will do. If he does, there might be another lower cost left handed FA who would fit and be signed for a couple of years at a lower cost and who also might be able to shore up the outfield part time. I can think of at least one who could do that job.

 

Yes, those are good points about the LH bats.

[moonslav59]

Any chance we bring Moreland back?

 

Just kidding, really. But sometimes he can be impressive.

 

He's just such a chronic tease with the staying on the field part.

 

He's the Buchholz of everyday players.

 

I was a big defender of Buch back in the day, but then I wasn't.

 

As just about everyone knows, Moreland bugs the s*** out of me, despite being a good defender and raking RHPs often.

 

His injury issues and platoon status was the main reason we signed Pearce instead of a RP'er.

 

We overpaid him, too. Look what Moose got, and what he did.

[Bellhorn04]

We overpaid him, too. Look what Moose got, and what he did.

 

I don't disagree. But Moose was a fluke. He got a tiny fraction of what was projected. It was similar to the Kimbrel and Keuchel situations where one or two guys end up the evening sad and lonely without a dance partner...

[OH FOY]

Wonder why the Brewers don't play Moose at 1st base? Only played 4 games in his career there. It might work, just as soon move Dalbec there, and see what happens. Time to take chances on the kids, and hold off on the spending.

[Bellhorn04]

Moreland, BTW, might have the best bat flip ever. I don't usually like bat flips, but his is perfection.

[oldtimer]

If JDM opts out, and I don't think he will, we will have his $23.75 MIl plus JBJ's. $8 to 10 Mil to work with. Resign Mookie, Go after Nick Castellanos to refill the outfield. Castellanos is young and good and no more money than Bradley. Find a Left hand hitting DH and fill 1st, 2nd with low cost farm players. Replace Leon with another backup prospect and work hard to get our young starters ready for MLB.

[dgalehouse]

If JDM opts out, and I don't think he will, we will have his $23.75 MIl plus JBJ's. $8 to 10 Mil to work with. Resign Mookie, Go after Nick Castellanos to refill the outfield. Castellanos is young and good and no more money than Bradley. Find a Left hand hitting DH and fill 1st, 2nd with low cost farm players. Replace Leon with another backup prospect and work hard to get our young starters ready for MLB.

 

That is a plan . But it seems contingent on J.D. opting out . That is not likely to happen . Nor should we want it to . He is too valuable to this lineup .

[notin]

If JDM opts out, and I don't think he will, we will have his $23.75 MIl plus JBJ's. $8 to 10 Mil to work with. Resign Mookie, Go after Nick Castellanos to refill the outfield. Castellanos is young and good and no more money than Bradley. Find a Left hand hitting DH and fill 1st, 2nd with low cost farm players. Replace Leon with another backup prospect and work hard to get our young starters ready for MLB.

 

Not sure why you think Castellanos will be cheaper than Bradley. Catellanos makes more than Bradley already and as afree agent coming up on his age 28 season, is going to cash in to $15-18mill per year easy...

[vegasbob]

It would be hard to rationalize the economics of Moreland going forward. He has missed considerable time for two years and been streaky at others. For his $6M , you can have Chavis, Travis, and 2 relievers . The LH bat matter gets partially addressed by keeping Holt and finding out if Marco Hernandez is part of the future or not. Despite not being my favorite player, you know that upside potential and low cost will keep LH hitting Benintendi on the Sox. Not sure you need to build the roster perfectly balanced LH/RH . Beni, Devers and Holt give you a start, with Hernandez off the bench maybe. Then there is Mr. Leon to help Sale carry his arm around, both of them bat Left, with equal results.

You know Bradley will get shopped hard trying to avoid his $9M potential arb, and get anything of value back, including a backup to Vazquez.

[oldtimer]

Not sure why you think Castellanos will be cheaper than Bradley. Catellanos makes more than Bradley already and as afree agent coming up on his age 28 season, is going to cash in to $15-18mill per year easy...

 

I had said that I don't think JDM will opt out but you also have to have a fall back plan if he does. With the potential $34 mil off the payroll (JDM & JBJ) we could recontruct the outfield with Castellnos and get a cheaper left handed bat for a short contract for DH unless we felt one of our youngsters could fill that void. JDM is a valuable player but the ball is still in his court. I think Castellanos currently gets $9 mil a year so your projection of approx $16 mil may be high.

[moonslav59]

It would be hard to rationalize the economics of Moreland going forward. He has missed considerable time for two years and been streaky at others. For his $6M , you can have Chavis, Travis, and 2 relievers . The LH bat matter gets partially addressed by keeping Holt and finding out if Marco Hernandez is part of the future or not. Despite not being my favorite player, you know that upside potential and low cost will keep LH hitting Benintendi on the Sox. Not sure you need to build the roster perfectly balanced LH/RH . Beni, Devers and Holt give you a start, with Hernandez off the bench maybe. Then there is Mr. Leon to help Sale carry his arm around, both of them bat Left, with equal results.

You know Bradley will get shopped hard trying to avoid his $9M potential arb, and get anything of value back, including a backup to Vazquez.

 

Holt is not under team control next year.