A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Right.

 

Juiced balls only lead to home runs. Not harder hit lines drives and absolutely no increased exit velocity. Just home runs!!

 

What I want to know is how they switch the balls whenever the Sox are at bat?

 

Follow up, is Tom Brady involved?

[notin]

What I want to know is how they switch the balls whenever the Sox are at bat?

 

Follow up, is Tom Brady involved?

 

No but you’re close. They’re clearly underinflating the baseballs.

 

We just need to know how. And why. And who “they” are...

[jacksonianmarch]

Right.

 

Juiced balls only lead to home runs. Not harder hit lines drives and absolutely no increased exit velocity. Just home runs!!

 

If the juiced ball was to blame, then why isn’t Sandy Leon hitting .340?

[notin]

If the juiced ball was to blame, then why isn’t Sandy Leon hitting .340?

 

 

You’re kidding, right?

 

Maybe because not everybody is hitting the ball equally hard? Maybe because not every player has equal line drive rates? Maybe because a juiced ball can increase the likelihood of barrel contact but can’t force the hitter to make it?

[moonslav59]

LD%

17.6% Leon (career 20.9%)

23.6% LeMahieu (career 23.8%)

 

HR/FB

10% Leon (career 8.1%)

20.0% LeMahieu (career 9.2%)

 

Interesting to see both LD%s down. However...

 

Hard Hit Balls:

23.9% Leon (26.1 career)

40.9% LeMahieu (31.6 career)

[Bellhorn04]

One of the smaller but not uninteresting offseason items is whether they bring back Holt and how much he gets.

[kenmeister]

One of the smaller but not uninteresting offseason items is whether they bring back Holt and how much he gets.

 

Agreed. He's a wonderful player, but Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin are of a similar vein and are far younger.

Edited September 3, 2019 by kenmeister

[jacksonianmarch]

Someone is going to pay holt to be their super utility or starting 2b. It likely won’t be the sox

[notin]

Someone is going to pay holt to be their super utility or starting 2b. It likely won’t be the sox

 

I think between Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin, the Sox do have the utility infielder role covered. They also have defensive whiz kid Jeremy Rivera to cover 2b/3b/SS if need be. It would be nice to get an actual fourth OF, but the best internal candidates are probably Cole Sturgeon and Tate Matheny. Notice how I did not say "Gorkys".

 

Bottom line: The Sox can probably build their bench internally for little to no money. This might be very important financially, but can have an obvious and potentially severe drawback...

[Bellhorn04]

Bottom line: The Sox can probably build their bench internally for little to no money. This might be very important financially, but can have an obvious and potentially severe drawback...

 

Suckitude?

[notin]

Suckitude?

 

In the event of any injuries, it becomes possible.

 

Unless we have the next Jeff McNeil down in Pawtucket...

[moonslav59]

I think between Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin, the Sox do have the utility infielder role covered. They also have defensive whiz kid Jeremy Rivera to cover 2b/3b/SS if need be. It would be nice to get an actual fourth OF, but the best internal candidates are probably Cole Sturgeon and Tate Matheny. Notice how I did not say "Gorkys".

 

Bottom line: The Sox can probably build their bench internally for little to no money. This might be very important financially, but can have an obvious and potentially severe drawback...

 

We also have Chatham to throw into the mix, assuming we add him at rule 5 time.

[oldtimer]

I think between Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin, the Sox do have the utility infielder role covered. They also have defensive whiz kid Jeremy Rivera to cover 2b/3b/SS if need be. It would be nice to get an actual fourth OF, but the best internal candidates are probably Cole Sturgeon and Tate Matheny. Notice how I did not say "Gorkys".

 

Bottom line: The Sox can probably build their bench internally for little to no money. This might be very important financially, but can have an obvious and potentially severe drawback...

 

Maybe Rivera is a year away.

[moonslav59]

Most of our best prospects are years away.

 

Many may never see the majors.

[notin]

Most of our best prospects are years away.

 

Many may never see the majors.

 

 

The Sox might have the worst farm in the majors, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of major leaguers, even at the upper levels. It means they probably don’t have as many as other teams or don’t have any high impact players or both.

 

It is possible in the next 12 months, any of Dalbec, Chatham, Houck, Hart, Mata, and/or Duran all make MLB debuts. And others like Lakins, Poyner, Shawaryn, and Kelley return to the majors. But what level of player will they be? But only 5 of the top 10 on Soxprospects.com are below AA...

Edited September 4, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox might have the worst farm in the majors, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of major leaguers, even at the upper levels. It means they probably don’t have as many as other teams or don’t have any high impact players or both.

 

It is possible in the next 12 months, any of Dalbec, Chatham, Houck, Hart, Mata, and/or Duran all make MLB debuts. And others like Lakins, Poyner, Shawaryn, and Kelley return to the majors. But what level of player will they be? But only 5 of the top 10 on Soxprospects.com are below AA...

 

Sometimes guys surpass the early projections & expectations. That's our biggest hope, weak as it may be.

[moonslav59]

The Sox might have the worst farm in the majors, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of major leaguers, even at the upper levels. It means they probably don’t have as many as other teams or don’t have any high impact players or both.

 

It is possible in the next 12 months, any of Dalbec, Chatham, Houck, Hart, Mata, and/or Duran all make MLB debuts. And others like Lakins, Poyner, Shawaryn, and Kelley return to the majors. But what level of player will they be? But only 5 of the top 10 on Soxprospects.com are below AA...

 

Yes, we do have some "ifs" that are near or at ML readiness. I'd add Ockimey and maybe Feltman and Ward to your list.

 

My point was that these guys are higher ranked than most of the older prospects:

 

soxprospects.com rankings: (age)

 

1. Casas (19)

2. Mata (20) may be ready next year

5. Groome (21) injury set back 1-2 years

6. Jimenez (19)

11. Lugo (18)

12. Decker (19)

13. A Flores (18)

(My "sleeper" is Danny Diaz, ranked 25, at age 18.)

 

 

[Slasher9]

do people really still hate on TB12???

dude is the GOAT and its no longer debatable....

[notin]

do people really still hate on TB12???

dude is the GOAT and its no longer debatable....

 

I don’t hate TB12. The jokes were about the ridiculousness of the laughable scandals surrounding him..

[oldtimer]

The Sox might have the worst farm in the majors, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of major leaguers, even at the upper levels. It means they probably don’t have as many as other teams or don’t have any high impact players or both.

 

It is possible in the next 12 months, any of Dalbec, Chatham, Houck, Hart, Mata, and/or Duran all make MLB debuts. And others like Lakins, Poyner, Shawaryn, and Kelley return to the majors. But what level of player will they be? But only 5 of the top 10 on Soxprospects.com are below AA...

 

I compare who we currently have lined up at positions with these guys for 2020. in the case of 1st base, we have Travis, Chavis and Holt. Dalbec would offer serious power and good fielding. He is a possible compared to those, especially since Chavis may move to 2nd.

 

In the case of Chatham, he is a kid with the ability to play short, second and third. He is a line drive hitter and at 6'4" and weighing in around 188, he has potential to get stronger. He would compete with Marco, Lin and Holt.

 

Duran hasn't been mentioned but he is our 4th ranked minors player. He has the speed to play center field although is still a bit raw. He also doesn't offer much power but may be needed if JBJ goes due to salary reset needs.

 

All three are low cost players on a team that will need to look for them if they reset.

 

DHern has already shown enough to make the team next year in our weakest spot, pitching. The other two, Houck and Mata have the stuff to pitch in the bigs, but will they work out? If one of them can, then it helps our starting pitching situation and may allow us to shed one of our big three, assuming Porcello is already gone next season. It will be hard to make a trade with any but maybe Eovaldi is tradeable and with him would go a sizeable long term contract.

 

I will be interested to see if management (maybe we get a change there as well) has plans to reset and to try and use our best prospects to play on our team. I hope they are not traded away.

[notin]

I compare who we currently have lined up at positions with these guys for 2020. in the case of 1st base, we have Travis, Chavis and Holt. Dalbec would offer serious power and good fielding. He is a possible compared to those, especially since Chavis may move to 2nd.

 

In the case of Chatham, he is a kid with the ability to play short, second and third. He is a line drive hitter and at 6'4" and weighing in around 188, he has potential to get stronger. He would compete with Marco, Lin and Holt.

 

Duran hasn't been mentioned but he is our 4th ranked minors player. He has the speed to play center field although is still a bit raw. He also doesn't offer much power but may be needed if JBJ goes due to salary reset needs.

 

All three are low cost players on a team that will need to look for them if they reset.

 

DHern has already shown enough to make the team next year in our weakest spot, pitching. The other two, Houck and Mata have the stuff to pitch in the bigs, but will they work out? If one of them can, then it helps our starting pitching situation and may allow us to shed one of our big three, assuming Porcello is already gone next season. It will be hard to make a trade with any but maybe Eovaldi is tradeable and with him would go a sizeable long term contract.

 

I will be interested to see if management (maybe we get a change there as well) has plans to reset and to try and use our best prospects to play on our team. I hope they are not traded away.

 

I see Chavis and Travis holding own first. Hernandez getting first shot at 2b. Duran in the minors to start the year, likely with Chatham. And Dalbec being traded.

[moonslav59]

I compare who we currently have lined up at positions with these guys for 2020. in the case of 1st base, we have Travis, Chavis and Holt. Dalbec would offer serious power and good fielding. He is a possible compared to those, especially since Chavis may move to 2nd.

 

In the case of Chatham, he is a kid with the ability to play short, second and third. He is a line drive hitter and at 6'4" and weighing in around 188, he has potential to get stronger. He would compete with Marco, Lin and Holt.

 

Duran hasn't been mentioned but he is our 4th ranked minors player. He has the speed to play center field although is still a bit raw. He also doesn't offer much power but may be needed if JBJ goes due to salary reset needs.

 

All three are low cost players on a team that will need to look for them if they reset.

 

DHern has already shown enough to make the team next year in our weakest spot, pitching. The other two, Houck and Mata have the stuff to pitch in the bigs, but will they work out? If one of them can, then it helps our starting pitching situation and may allow us to shed one of our big three, assuming Porcello is already gone next season. It will be hard to make a trade with any but maybe Eovaldi is tradeable and with him would go a sizeable long term contract.

 

I will be interested to see if management (maybe we get a change there as well) has plans to reset and to try and use our best prospects to play on our team. I hope they are not traded away.

 

Holt is a FA. We'd have to sign him (and stay under to reset). He may not be part of the 2B/1B mix.

 

I think Chavis and Marco play 2B with Chavis playing some at 1B, if he can improve on his numbers after his first 14 games of 2019.

 

All hands on deck!

[oldtimer]

Holt is a FA. We'd have to sign him (and stay under to reset). He may not be part of the 2B/1B mix.

 

I think Chavis and Marco play 2B with Chavis playing some at 1B, if he can improve on his numbers after his first 14 games of 2019.

 

All hands on deck!

 

To stay under 208 MIl with the contracts of Sale, Price and Eovaldi on the pitchers side and Pedroia, Bogie, Betts and JDM on the field player side, there is little wiggle room for the rest. Add JBJ at 10 Mil and we would use up $85 Mil just on the field player side. Something has to give and it shouldn't be the reset.

[moonslav59]

To stay under 208 MIl with the contracts of Sale, Price and Eovaldi on the pitchers side and Pedroia, Bogie, Betts and JDM on the field player side, there is little wiggle room for the rest. Add JBJ at 10 Mil and we would use up $85 Mil just on the field player side. Something has to give and it shouldn't be the reset.

 

If we don't bring JBJ back, so we can reset, we may have room for one small FA signing: I doubt it would be Holt.

[jacksonianmarch]

if You’re bringing back the same squad minus Holt and JBJ and essentially not signing anyone of value to add to the sorry excuse of a pitching staff (rotation and pen), then what the heck is the point of keeping Betts? You’re destined to get trainwrecked even more. If Henry resets in 2020, he will dismantle the short term pieces of the club like ERod and Betts. If you’re gonna go for it, he’ll push to the final line again. It’s that simple. There’s no point in resetting if you’re going to endure another 86 win season or worse while watching the Yanks and Rays run train on the division and not maximizing return for short term assets and rebuilding. Timing is incredibly important. The hiring of DD aligned with the fall of the Jays and O’s and the down phase of the Yanks. Henry saw a window, took it, and you’ve got a 2018 flag that’ll fly forever.

 

But timing now shows you the opposite. The Yanks are a deep juggernaut. To have what we have returning next year plus money freed up plus what frees up for 2021 (Tanaka and Ellsbury) and we’ve got a solid window upcoming provided we don’t sell off the farm and get into what you’re dealing with. The Rays also look good in the near term and heck, the Jays have a core to dream on. It’s you’re cliff, your time to fade and rebuild.

Edited September 5, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

Sometimes guys surpass the early projections & expectations. That's our biggest hope, weak as it may be.

 

Draftnicks and prospect hounds are wrong all the time. Cano was one of those guys. He was essentially considered a backup IFer who might hit a little when he was coming up. Heck, he was one of five guys offered to the DBacks for RJ and the DBacks turned us down initially. Now the guy is likely headed for the hall

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks are a deep juggernaut.

 

As opposed to the shallow juggernauts, which are really nothing special...

[notin]

Draftnicks and prospect hounds are wrong all the time. Cano was one of those guys. He was essentially considered a backup IFer who might hit a little when he was coming up. Heck, he was one of five guys offered to the DBacks for RJ and the DBacks turned us down initially. Now the guy is likely headed for the hall

 

Except for that whole steroid suspension scandal...

[moonslav59]

if You’re bringing back the same squad minus Holt and JBJ and essentially not signing anyone of value to add to the sorry excuse of a pitching staff (rotation and pen), then what the heck is the point of keeping Betts? You’re destined to get trainwrecked even more. If Henry resets in 2020, he will dismantle the short term pieces of the club like ERod and Betts. If you’re gonna go for it, he’ll push to the final line again. It’s that simple. There’s no point in resetting if you’re going to endure another 86 win season or worse while watching the Yanks and Rays run train on the division and not maximizing return for short term assets and rebuilding. Timing is incredibly important. The hiring of DD aligned with the fall of the Jays and O’s and the down phase of the Yanks. Henry saw a window, took it, and you’ve got a 2018 flag that’ll fly forever.

 

But timing now shows you the opposite. The Yanks are a deep juggernaut. To have what we have returning next year plus money freed up plus what frees up for 2021 (Tanaka and Ellsbury) and we’ve got a solid window upcoming provided we don’t sell off the farm and get into what you’re dealing with. The Rays also look good in the near term and heck, the Jays have a core to dream on. It’s you’re cliff, your time to fade and rebuild.

 

It is possible to reset this winter and 2020, re-sign Betts and some FAs to get near the max line and compete in 2021.

 

A lot would have to go right, but it is possible.

[notin]

if You’re bringing back the same squad minus Holt and JBJ and essentially not signing anyone of value to add to the sorry excuse of a pitching staff (rotation and pen), then what the heck is the point of keeping Betts? You’re destined to get trainwrecked even more. If Henry resets in 2020, he will dismantle the short term pieces of the club like ERod and Betts. If you’re gonna go for it, he’ll push to the final line again. It’s that simple. There’s no point in resetting if you’re going to endure another 86 win season or worse while watching the Yanks and Rays run train on the division and not maximizing return for short term assets and rebuilding. Timing is incredibly important. The hiring of DD aligned with the fall of the Jays and O’s and the down phase of the Yanks. Henry saw a window, took it, and you’ve got a 2018 flag that’ll fly forever.

 

But timing now shows you the opposite. The Yanks are a deep juggernaut. To have what we have returning next year plus money freed up plus what frees up for 2021 (Tanaka and Ellsbury) and we’ve got a solid window upcoming provided we don’t sell off the farm and get into what you’re dealing with. The Rays also look good in the near term and heck, the Jays have a core to dream on. It’s you’re cliff, your time to fade and rebuild.

 

Actually the Sox pen has pitched pretty well, especially lately.

 

The blown saves % is high, but that's because of the crazy lengthy opportunities handed over by the rotation. If your bullpen only hjas to hold the lead for 1 or 2 innings, the chances of converting the save are much higher than the repeated 4 inning opportunities the Sox pen has been handed...