A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

So, you're not counting farm products the Yankees traded for as Yankee prospects?

 

I think we have one in that category: ERod. How many do the Yanks have?

 

Let's face it: the Yanks still have a better farm than us. They have a better budget situation than us. They have a much better record than we do, right now.

 

IMO, it's time to reset, retool, and try to keep the rebuild stretch to as short as possible. If we do everything right, we may be back to being a top 3-5 contender by 2021, assuming we keep Betts and spend near the max line again the year after we reset (2021).

 

The Yankees might have a better farm, but not much of a track record for producing major leaguers. And their current farm is actually uninspiring....

[moonslav59]

We have 58+ million to spend at this point, without Betts. I edited this I think the Arb Players are part of this.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2021/

 

Providing JD stays. Your going to have with some big Payroll Spenders with a lot of Cap before they hit the Luxury Tax threshold.

 

No, Arbs are not part of this.

 

I have our arbs coming in at over $60M, not counting Leon. If you trade Betts, then add about $30M to your number. That leaves about $28M without Betts.

 

Plus, we'll have about 8 players at the min MLB salary- not minor league salary. That adds about $3-4M.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Projected 2020 Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget

$Millions

31 Price

27 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

4 Vaz

Sub TOTAL $135M 7 Players

 

Arbitration Estimates:

28 Betts (3rd arb of 3)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Marco (1 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

(Leon: non tenders & maybe re-signed for $1M)

Sub TOTAL $61M 10 Players

 

8 (Likely) Pre-arb on ML Roster

Devers

Chavis

Taylor

Walden

Travis

Johnson

Velazquez

DHernandez

Sub TOTAL $4M 8 Players

 

Other 15 (Likely) Plyaers on the 40 Man Roster

Dalbec, Chatham, Lin, Brewer, Weber, Reyes, Shawaryn, Poyner

Brasier, Kelley, Lakins, Poyner, Ockimey, Feltman, Houck

Sub TOTAL: $2M 15 Players

 

$15M Player Benefits

 

$217 Million Total

 

That's about $9M over the first Luxury Tax line.

 

If we trade or non tender JBJ, we will be slightly under the tax line with no money to spend on any free agents, if we want to reset.

 

If we trade Betts and not JBJ, we'll be at $189M. That leaves us $19M to spend and still stay below the Luxury Tax line.

 

It would be $58M to stay below the max line. Is that what you meant?

 

[cp176]

...and this was the attitude during the 80+ years of Red Sox futility. "Let's 'wait til next year' because if we go for it now and fail we'll be in worse shape the following year."

 

I realize it's easy to be disappointed in this team right now but to listen to some posters one would think that "The window" slammed shut on their hand! There are those of us who would throw in the towel on 2020 right now in the hope of rebuilding an offense and defense as good as this one is now by 2024. I'm not one of them. I'd look at what we have rather than what we don't have and plan accordingly.

 

The OF is set, the left side of the IF is set, and at least half of the catching duo is set. We have solid and cheap possibilities on the right side of the IF in Chavis, Marco, Travis, Lin, and possibly even Ockimey. Sign Brock Holt and call it a day for position players. These guys are good enough offensively and defensively to win a championship.

 

The question mark is at pitching with the biggest ? being the condition of Sale's elbow/shoulder and by being an optimist I'm going forward today hoping he's back at full strength next year. He may have to reinvent himself a bit but everything I've seen from him makes me think he's enough of a competitor to do whatever is necessary.

Beyond that there's Price, & ERod, both of whom can easily be predicted to have a better 2020 than 2019. The only starter probably needing replacement is Porcillo and if releasing him and replacing him with a slightly more expensive #4 it's something I can live with. We have plenty of arms with the potential to be our #5-9 pitchers.

 

I say this is the time to be brave, not cowardly. The nucleus of this team is still possibly the best team in baseball. Don't scrap it now. Have the courage to take a chance. That window is still open. Teams like this don't arrive every year.

 

I agree with you very much. Giving up regardless of the current or future impact has never been in my DNA. I don't have any of the answers with respect to how we go about acquiring the pitching that it takes to compete once again at the highest level but I have always chosen to support the people in charge. They know more than I do.

[OH FOY]

If I was on the Sox and you want to Reset, if Sale is out next year, I would move Price, and pay half his salary. Next year he'll be a 5 and 10 guy, at 32 million, next 3 years. He'll be 34.

Team paying 16 million might give up something.

If JD opts out, I would consider this.

[OH FOY]

No, Arbs are not part of this.

 

I have our arbs coming in at over $60M, not counting Leon. If you trade Betts, then add about $30M to your number. That leaves about $28M without Betts.

 

Plus, we'll have about 8 players at the min MLB salary- not minor league salary. That adds about $3-4M.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Projected 2020 Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget

$Millions

31 Price

27 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

4 Vaz

Sub TOTAL $135M 7 Players

 

Arbitration Estimates:

28 Betts (3rd arb of 3)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Marco (1 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

(Leon: non tenders & maybe re-signed for $1M)

Sub TOTAL $61M 10 Players

 

8 (Likely) Pre-arb on ML Roster

Devers

Chavis

Taylor

Walden

Travis

Johnson

Velazquez

DHernandez

Sub TOTAL $4M 8 Players

 

Other 15 (Likely) Plyaers on the 40 Man Roster

Dalbec, Chatham, Lin, Brewer, Weber, Reyes, Shawaryn, Poyner

Brasier, Kelley, Lakins, Poyner, Ockimey, Feltman, Houck

Sub TOTAL: $2M 15 Players

 

$15M Player Benefits

 

$217 Million Total

 

That's about $9M over the first Luxury Tax line.

 

If we trade or non tender JBJ, we will be slightly under the tax line with no money to spend on any free agents, if we want to reset.

 

If we trade Betts and not JBJ, we'll be at $189M. That leaves us $19M to spend and still stay below the Luxury Tax line.

 

It would be $58M to stay below the max line. Is that what you meant?

 

 

Yes. That will dwindle very fast, if Mookie is signed, E-Rod has 2 good years in a row, starting this year, Devers, will get paid, its not as much as you think.

Edited September 2, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

The Yankees might have a better farm, but not much of a track record for producing major leaguers. And their current farm is actually uninspiring....

 

Their farm is better than ours, which might not be saying much.

 

Add to that the years of team control of their best players as compared to ours and their contractual costs, and it seems pretty clea that we have some work cut out for us, if we want to compete after 2020 or 2021.

 

NYY team control years:

 

4+ years:

Vets signed: Stanton, Severino & Hicks

Pre-arb + 3+ arbs:

Torres, Andujar, German, Voit, Tauchman, Frazier, Montgomery, Wade, Holder, Loaisiga, Adams and more

 

3 Arb Years:

Judge, Sanchez, Urshela, Green, Hale

Vet: Britton (last year is option)

 

2 Years:

Vets: Chapman, Ottavino

Arbs: Bird

 

Here's the Sox look:

 

4+ Years:

Vets: Sale & Bogey

pre-arb+3+arbs:

Devers, Johnson, Brasier, Velazquez, Chavis, DHernandez, Walden, Travis, Brewer, Lin and more

 

3 Years:

Vets: Price, JD (player opt outs), Eovaldi, Vaz

Arbs:

Beni, Marco Hernandez, Weber, Smith

 

2 years:

Vets: Pedroia

Arbs: ERod, Barnes, Hembree

 

 

Edited September 2, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

NYY

Vets :

Stanton, Severino, Hicks & Britton (last year team option)

Pre-arb and or 3+ arbs:

Judge, Torres, Sanchez, Urshela, Andujar, German, Voit, Tauchman, Frazier, Green, Montgomery, Wade, Holder, Loaisiga, Hale, Adams and more

 

BOS

Vets:

Sale, Bogey, Price, Eovaldi, Vaz (last year team option), JD? (player opt outs)

Pre-arb and or 3+arbs:

Devers, Beni, Marco, Johnson, Brasier, Velazquez, Chavis, DHernandez, Walden, Travis, Weber, Brewer, Lin, Smith and more

 

Look at the 3 arbs or more lists. It's not even close.

 

 

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

Have any of you actually seen our prospects play ? Casas? Chatham ? Dalbec ? Ward? We have real good players and Ward I watched a few weeks ago kids a freaking stud with A disgusting breaking ball with real bite and upper 97 mph heater with real slide .I don't want anyone to think we don't have another crop coming we do and they are good .

[moonslav59]

Have any of you actually seen our prospects play ? Casas? Chatham ? Dalbec ? Ward? We have real good players and Ward I watched a few weeks ago kids a freaking stud with A disgusting breaking ball with real bite and upper 97 mph heater with real slide .I don't want anyone to think we don't have another crop coming we do and they are good .

 

That may be true, but all other teams have more or better or both.

[notin]

Have any of you actually seen our prospects play ? Casas? Chatham ? Dalbec ? Ward? We have real good players and Ward I watched a few weeks ago kids a freaking stud with A disgusting breaking ball with real bite and upper 97 mph heater with real slide .I don't want anyone to think we don't have another crop coming we do and they are good .

 

But how does that compare to other farms?

 

Bear in mind, the professional organizations saying the Sox have the worst farm aren't saying "No Major Leaguers!! Ever!!" They're saying "29 other teams have a really good chance at having more and/or better major league talent in their farm systems than Boston does."

[moonslav59]

But how does that compare to other farms?

 

Bear in mind, the professional organizations saying the Sox have the worst farm aren't saying "No Major Leaguers!! Ever!!" They're saying "29 other teams have a really good chance at having more and/or better major league talent in their farm systems than Boston does."

 

Exactly.

 

Just this year, we've seen Chavis and DHern contribute. Travis and others have been marginal, at best.

 

Next year, we may see Dalbec, Chatham and maybe Houck give us something.

 

Mata, Casas and Groome are farther away, but there is some hope. Nothing like the hopes of past Sox farms and 29 other teams, but there is still some hope.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, you're not counting farm products the Yankees traded for as Yankee prospects?

 

I think we have one in that category: ERod. How many do the Yanks have?

 

Let's face it: the Yanks still have a better farm than us. They have a better budget situation than us. They have a much better record than we do, right now.

 

IMO, it's time to reset, retool, and try to keep the rebuild stretch to as short as possible. If we do everything right, we may be back to being a top 3-5 contender by 2021, assuming we keep Betts and spend near the max line again the year after we reset (2021).

 

There’s the rub. We’ve not got two rosters of players that most teams would dream on

 

Here are the position players coming back next year

 

Sanchez

Higashioka (Ronnie will likely get a good deal elsewhere)

Voit

Lemahieu

Torres

Andujar

Urshela

Tauchman

Frazier

Hicks

Judge

Stanton

 

We got hit with injuries never before seen in terms of finances on the IL and we are still the best team in baseball. We are still 15 games ahead of you.

 

Our pitching returning is formidable as well and best of all, will be healthy come 2020 barring any new injuries

 

Severino

Paxton

Tanaka

Montgomery

Crap (you got me there)

Britton

Ottavino

Green

Chapman (if he opts in)

Kahnle

Loiasiga

 

 

Not to mention, a real top prospect in Garcia, money to burn and an ace on the market in Cole.

 

And Sale is coming off an injury that wasn’t entirely shared and got a treatment that doesn’t have a positive history of returning to prior levels of performance. Heck, Price was supposed to go 85 pitches yesterday, he barely gets out of two innings. Eovaldi cannot finish a year without spending tons of time on the IL. ERod is your guy. Your 5 hole is open. Your pen sucks. And your budget is limited. Tell me how you’re overtaking us?

[Bellhorn04]

There’s the rub. We’ve not got two rosters of players that most teams would dream on

 

Here are the position players coming back next year

 

Sanchez

Higashioka (Ronnie will likely get a good deal elsewhere)

Voit

Lemahieu

Torres

Andujar

Urshela

Tauchman

Frazier

Hicks

Judge

Stanton

 

We got hit with injuries never before seen in terms of finances on the IL and we are still the best team in baseball. We are still 15 games ahead of you.

 

Some of these guys (Lemahieu, Urshela, Tauchman) are due for significant regression next year, too. They're having the magical seasons this year.

[moonslav59]

There’s the rub. We’ve not got two rosters of players that most teams would dream on

 

Here are the position players coming back next year

 

Sanchez

Higashioka (Ronnie will likely get a good deal elsewhere)

Voit

Lemahieu

Torres

Andujar

Urshela

Tauchman

Frazier

Hicks

Judge

Stanton

 

We got hit with injuries never before seen in terms of finances on the IL and we are still the best team in baseball. We are still 15 games ahead of you.

 

Our pitching returning is formidable as well and best of all, will be healthy come 2020 barring any new injuries

 

Severino

Paxton

Tanaka

Montgomery

Crap (you got me there)

Britton

Ottavino

Green

Chapman (if he opts in)

Kahnle

Loiasiga

 

 

Not to mention, a real top prospect in Garcia, money to burn and an ace on the market in Cole.

 

And Sale is coming off an injury that wasn’t entirely shared and got a treatment that doesn’t have a positive history of returning to prior levels of performance. Heck, Price was supposed to go 85 pitches yesterday, he barely gets out of two innings. Eovaldi cannot finish a year without spending tons of time on the IL. ERod is your guy. Your 5 hole is open. Your pen sucks. And your budget is limited. Tell me how you’re overtaking us?

 

I think you misread my post. I'm saying you guys look better going forward.

 

I said, if everything goes right, we may be able to reset, re-sign Betts and other FAs for 2021 and be a top 3-5 contender.That means every FA we sign works out well, and we get some help from our weak farm.

 

I never said we'd have higher odds of winning than the Yanks in 2021.

[moonslav59]

Some of these guys (Lemahieu, Urshela, Tauchman) are due for significant regression next year, too. They're having the magical seasons this year.

 

True, but some guys, who stay healthy, should more than make up for those regressions, but then again, I said that about us going into this year.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but some guys, who stay healthy, should more than make up for those regressions, but then again, I said that about us going into this year.

 

I've NEVER seen ANY team's offense do what the Yankees are doing this year. To have so many significant injuries, but then to have to so many former no-names step in and post crazy good numbers...it's been uncanny.

[moonslav59]

I've NEVER seen ANY team's offense do what the Yankees are doing this year. To have so many significant injuries, but then to have to so many former no-names step in and post crazy good numbers...it's been uncanny.

 

If everyone comes back healthy, they can trade 1-3 of these guys for a better than decent SP'er.

 

Plus, they have spending room.

 

All of this, make me think we should reset and look to start getting better in 2021 and beyond. That's when their arb and vet costs will be pushing them to the point we are at now.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you misread my post. I'm saying you guys look better going forward.

 

I said, if everything goes right, we may be able to reset, re-sign Betts and other FAs for 2021 and be a top 3-5 contender.That means every FA we sign works out well, and we get some help from our weak farm.

 

I never said we'd have higher odds of winning than the Yanks in 2021.

 

I replied to the wrong post, sorry

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, Lemahieu isn’t likely to hit .335 next year. But Lemahieu has added power, a higher walk rate and a lower K rate. His career BABIP is .345, so his .355 BABIP is slightly above that.

 

Tauchman and Voit are exit velo guys who know how to hit. They both are .850-ish OPS guys with power and a good eye. Urshela is the only guy who has jumped onto the map and has been completely beyond his capabilities. Maybe he found something? Maybe he’s a .270-15-70 guy next year? Who knows, but we do have the defending ROY runner up behind him at the same position, so it isn’t like we lack depth. The funny thing is, outside of Urshela, no player is doing anything that they haven’t replicated or cannot replicate. Sanchez has a mid .800s OPs and 32 bombs. Been there, done that. Judge has an OpS right at .900. Same. Hicks, his OPS is right around .800. Torres is showing more power than ever, but he’s 22 and likely getting better. Didi is having an off year offensively. We lost Andujar. We lost Stanton. Even if Lemahieu goes to .300-20-80 next year, what we get from adding back the guys we lost should make up for that. Cashman has created a very deep and dynamic offense

[dgalehouse]

I've NEVER seen ANY team's offense do what the Yankees are doing this year. To have so many significant injuries, but then to have to so many former no-names step in and post crazy good numbers...it's been uncanny.

 

Lemahieu is a former batting champ , so he is a legit hitter . As with so many things we are seeing this year , the juiced ball is surely a factor.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lemahieu is a former batting champ , so he is a legit hitter . As with so many things we are seeing this year , the juiced ball is surely a factor.

 

Blaming the juiced ball for Urshela hitting .340 is not accurate. If he hit 40 bombs in with you, but a .340-18 line isn’t due to a juiced ball

[Swiharts Ghost]

Man why in the Hell do we give two shits about a Yankee team that won't win the World Series this year ? Seriously ? Fun club with guys stepping up but that staff is terrible and paper thin now .Sorry they have as much chance getting out the AL as Manny does to get into the Hall in 2020 .Nice regular season there Jackson . Edited September 2, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[Slasher9]

...and this was the attitude during the 80+ years of Red Sox futility. "Let's 'wait til next year' because if we go for it now and fail we'll be in worse shape the following year."

 

I realize it's easy to be disappointed in this team right now but to listen to some posters one would think that "The window" slammed shut on their hand! There are those of us who would throw in the towel on 2020 right now in the hope of rebuilding an offense and defense as good as this one is now by 2024. I'm not one of them. I'd look at what we have rather than what we don't have and plan accordingly.

 

The OF is set, the left side of the IF is set, and at least half of the catching duo is set. We have solid and cheap possibilities on the right side of the IF in Chavis, Marco, Travis, Lin, and possibly even Ockimey. Sign Brock Holt and call it a day for position players. These guys are good enough offensively and defensively to win a championship.

 

The question mark is at pitching with the biggest ? being the condition of Sale's elbow/shoulder and by being an optimist I'm going forward today hoping he's back at full strength next year. He may have to reinvent himself a bit but everything I've seen from him makes me think he's enough of a competitor to do whatever is necessary.

Beyond that there's Price, & ERod, both of whom can easily be predicted to have a better 2020 than 2019. The only starter probably needing replacement is Porcillo and if releasing him and replacing him with a slightly more expensive #4 it's something I can live with. We have plenty of arms with the potential to be our #5-9 pitchers.

 

I say this is the time to be brave, not cowardly. The nucleus of this team is still possibly the best team in baseball. Don't scrap it now. Have the courage to take a chance. That window is still open. Teams like this don't arrive every year.

Well done sir. Indeed.

[Slasher9]

The Yankees are definitely cheating this year. This is fact and indisputable

[moonslav59]

The Yankees are definitely cheating this year. This is fact and indisputable

 

I've always said they must put something in their clubhouse water fountain.

 

Look at Urshela's history before this year.

[illinoisredsox]

The Yankees are definitely cheating this year. This is fact and indisputable

 

Just this year? They’ve been cheating since the 50s and probably before that.

[Slasher9]

Just this year? They’ve been cheating since the 50s and probably before that.

 

Lol...True. But they did an extra cheat after we had our parade. Definitely steroids, sign stealing, extra juiced balls when they are batting, corked bats (or super balls). Paying off umps too. Blackmailing review.

[OH FOY]

Since 2017 JD in 2nd half of season has hit a HR in 10.5 at bats. 641 at bats 61 HRS, 167 RBI's. and a .326 BA.

You OPS folks, 1.083.

Edited September 2, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

There’s the rub. We’ve not got two rosters of players that most teams would dream on

 

Here are the position players coming back next year

 

Sanchez

Higashioka (Ronnie will likely get a good deal elsewhere)

Voit

Lemahieu

Torres

Andujar

Urshela

Tauchman

Frazier

Hicks

Judge

Stanton

 

We got hit with injuries never before seen in terms of finances on the IL and we are still the best team in baseball. We are still 15 games ahead of you.

 

Our pitching returning is formidable as well and best of all, will be healthy come 2020 barring any new injuries

 

Severino

Paxton

Tanaka

Montgomery

Crap (you got me there)

Britton

Ottavino

Green

Chapman (if he opts in)

Kahnle

Loiasiga

 

 

Not to mention, a real top prospect in Garcia, money to burn and an ace on the market in Cole.

 

And Sale is coming off an injury that wasn’t entirely shared and got a treatment that doesn’t have a positive history of returning to prior levels of performance. Heck, Price was supposed to go 85 pitches yesterday, he barely gets out of two innings. Eovaldi cannot finish a year without spending tons of time on the IL. ERod is your guy. Your 5 hole is open. Your pen sucks. And your budget is limited. Tell me how you’re overtaking us?

 

Still clinging to the one scouting ranking that has Deivi Garcia in the top 25? Everyone else has him outside of the top 60, which makes him A LOT closer to Casas than the names you seem to think he belongs with...

[notin]

Blaming the juiced ball for Urshela hitting .340 is not accurate. If he hit 40 bombs in with you, but a .340-18 line isn’t due to a juiced ball

 

Right.

 

Juiced balls only lead to home runs. Not harder hit lines drives and absolutely no increased exit velocity. Just home runs!!