A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

It is possible to reset this winter and 2020, re-sign Betts and some FAs to get near the max line and compete in 2021.

 

A lot would have to go right, but it is possible.

 

I think it's possible for the Sox to reset and still be competitive in 2020. Not sure if we have the right GM for that, though.

 

And unfortunately, JBJ has to be a roster casualty for that to happen...

[moonslav59]

I think it's possible for the Sox to reset and still be competitive in 2020. Not sure if we have the right GM for that, though.

 

And unfortunately, JBJ has to be a roster casualty for that to happen...

 

Okay, but highly competitive in 2020?

 

It is possible to trade Eovaldi or Price and keep JBJ, but I think JBJ makes more sense.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Competitive but not title competitive is the dreaded middle ground. Being .500 is the worst for farm building

[oldtimer]

Okay, but highly competitive in 2020?

 

It is possible to trade Eovaldi or Price and keep JBJ, but I think JBJ makes more sense.

 

 

Maybe trade Eovaldi and let JBJ go as a FA, which would give us a little wiggle room. We need a plan B in case our young pitchers are unable to fill the starting pitching shortfalls. We all agree that Porcello will not be back and if our risk is reduced by trading Eovaldi and making $$$ available, we can have a plan B that adds a starter. Both Sale and Price will be back but their effectiveness will remain a major question.

 

The question of whether DD is the right guy during a reset is also on the table. I think we can and should make a change to a young guy with a history of building the farm and making good choices during a turn around.

[moonslav59]

Competitive but not title competitive is the dreaded middle ground. Being .500 is the worst for farm building

 

Losing the 2019 Porcello is addition by subtraction.

 

Losing JBJ will hurt, but we could still be highly competitive in 2021 by keeping Betts and adding 2-3 decent free agents.

 

I know there are a lot of "ifs," but it could easily happen.

 

The team we have now is not as bad as the record indicates (3 wins below Pythagorean).

 

As much as you question Sale's fitness and declining abilities, if he is healthy, he's still a force. This "off year" still has him at 3rd in xFIP.

 

We have a couple players that will be past prime in 2021, but not by a lot, and most of our key players will still be in the heart of prime.

[jacksonianmarch]

Losing the 2019 Porcello is addition by subtraction.

 

Losing JBJ will hurt, but we could still be highly competitive in 2021 by keeping Betts and adding 2-3 decent free agents.

 

I know there are a lot of "ifs," but it could easily happen.

 

The team we have now is not as bad as the record indicates (3 wins below Pythagorean).

 

As much as you question Sale's fitness and declining abilities, if he is healthy, he's still a force. This "off year" still has him at 3rd in xFIP.

 

We have a couple players that will be past prime in 2021, but not by a lot, and most of our key players will still be in the heart of prime.

 

 

2-3 decent free agents after resigning Mookie with what money? Devers is gonna be arb eligible and will cost a pretty penny. Beni will be arb eligible. ERod will be in his last year of arb. All of the awful contracts on the books will still be on the books.

[moonslav59]

2-3 decent free agents after resigning Mookie with what money? Devers is gonna be arb eligible and will cost a pretty penny. Beni will be arb eligible. ERod will be in his last year of arb. All of the awful contracts on the books will still be on the books.

 

Betts will make close to $28M on his last arb. His luxury tac contract rate shouldn't be much more than $5M over that, epsecially, if they defer money or go 10 yrs to bring the AVV down.

 

I'm also taking away JBJ's $10M or so.

 

We'll have enough to sign 2-3 decent but not great FAs and stay near the max line.

 

In theory, if we reset, we'll have about $40M to spend on Bett's raise, arb raises (losing Workmna, Wright and Leon) and FAs. We may have to say good bye to Hembree, but ERod and Barnes will be the only players on their last arb year in 2021. Beni & Marco are the only two that will be in their 2nd arb of 3. Historically, 1st arb years are not huge contracts.

 

If JD opts out after 2020, we'll have to replace him, but we'll have his money to use.

[notin]

Okay, but highly competitive in 2020?

 

It is possible to trade Eovaldi or Price and keep JBJ, but I think JBJ makes more sense.

 

 

It is possible to trade any player. Robinson Cano proved that this past offseason. But I would think that Eovaldi and Price would be tough moves given that neither has been very healthy. Eovalidi does have age on his side.

 

I think one year of Jackie Bradley at $10-12 mill is a very tough move. Especially if the idea is to not eat any salary. I think the best option to handle Bradley at his expected salary is a straight non-tender...

[moonslav59]

It is possible to trade any player. Robinson Cano proved that this past offseason. But I would think that Eovaldi and Price would be tough moves given that neither has been very healthy. Eovalidi does have age on his side.

 

I think one year of Jackie Bradley at $10-12 mill is a very tough move. Especially if the idea is to not eat any salary. I think the best option to handle Bradley at his expected salary is a straight non-tender...

 

Why did so many teams want him over the last few last years? Has he gotten that worse? Is $2-3M more in salary really going to make a huge difference, if some GM needs a great CF glove man who may hit over .730?

[Bellhorn04]

Why did so many teams want him over the last few last years? Has he gotten that worse? Is $2-3M more in salary really going to make a huge difference, if some GM needs a great CF glove man who may hit over .730?

 

What do we really know about how badly other teams wanted him? If they had offered a lot, he might be gone already.

 

I believe DD dangled him this past offseason, but obviously wasn't impressed with the offers.

[moonslav59]

What do we really know about how badly other teams wanted him? If they had offered a lot, he might be gone already.

 

I'm not saying we'll get "a lot." I do think we can get a decent prospect or low cost RP'er for him.

 

Maybe not. If not, then non tendering makes sense. Maybe we can bring him back at less than the arb would have been.

[notin]

Why did so many teams want him over the last few last years? Has he gotten that worse? Is $2-3M more in salary really going to make a huge difference, if some GM needs a great CF glove man who may hit over .730?

 

How many other teams really wanted him and how badly did they want him?

 

I remember 2 teams making reported offers. Cleveland offering Edwin Encarnacion and hi $20mill contract, and the Dodgers offering Yasiel Puig and his (-$20mill) attitude.

 

Both of those were also when Bradley had 3 years of control left...

[notin]

What do we really know about how badly other teams wanted him? If they had offered a lot, he might be gone already.

 

I believe DD dangled him this past offseason, but obviously wasn't impressed with the offers.

 

This guy wrote earlier this week that the Sox should be able to trade him to the Seattle Mariners.

 

http://dailycampus.com/stories/2019/9/3/columnnbspits-time-for-the-boston-red-sox-to-trade-jackie-bradley-jrnbsp

 

I don't think he took into account that 1) the Mariners already have an all-Glove/no-bat CF in Mallex Smith and 2) they have been doing everything possible to unload every lucrative contract they can. Sure, they'll hand over Dee Gordon or Kyle Seager for Bradley. But they would hand those guys over even without getting Bradley...

[moonslav59]

This guy wrote earlier this week that the Sox should be able to trade him to the Seattle Mariners.

 

http://dailycampus.com/stories/2019/9/3/columnnbspits-time-for-the-boston-red-sox-to-trade-jackie-bradley-jrnbsp

 

I don't think he took into account that 1) the Mariners already have an all-Glove/no-bat CF in Mallex Smith and 2) they have been doing everything possible to unload every lucrative contract they can. Sure, they'll hand over Dee Gordon or Kyle Seager for Bradley. But they would hand those guys over even without getting Bradley...

 

Can we trade JBJ and Price for Seager & Gordon, and then move Seager to 1B?

[Bellhorn04]

Can we trade JBJ and Price for Seager & Gordon, and then move Seager to 1B?

 

Price? I hope you're ready for an incoming missile from harmony.

[harmony]

This guy wrote earlier this week that the Sox should be able to trade him to the Seattle Mariners.

 

http://dailycampus.com/stories/2019/9/3/columnnbspits-time-for-the-boston-red-sox-to-trade-jackie-bradley-jrnbsp

 

I don't think he took into account that 1) the Mariners already have an all-Glove/no-bat CF in Mallex Smith and 2) they have been doing everything possible to unload every lucrative contract they can. Sure, they'll hand over Dee Gordon or Kyle Seager for Bradley. But they would hand those guys over even without getting Bradley...

In only 84 games this year, Kyle Seager has posted a higher fWAR (2.7, valued at $21.7 million) than David Price or Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9785&position=3B#value

 

I suspect Seattle will keep Seager and his $19.5 million annual salary for veteran leadership despite his negative $23.6 million value assessed at this website:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Edited September 5, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Price? I hope you're ready for an incoming missile from harmony.

 

I was expecting a cruise missile....ooops, here it is!

[moonslav59]

In only 84 games this year, Kyle Seager has posted a higher fWAR (2.7, valued at $21.7 million) than David Price or Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9785&position=3B#value

 

I suspect Seattle will keep Seager and his $19.5 million annual salary for veteran leadership despite his negative $23.6 million value assessed at this website:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

I know you guys wouldn't want someone like Price, when you are looking to cut salary.

 

I do think your team might have wanted JBJ next year, if you were going to compete. Too bad that's out of the question.

[harmony]

I know you guys wouldn't want someone like Price, when you are looking to cut salary.

 

I do think your team might have wanted JBJ next year, if you were going to compete. Too bad that's out of the question.

The Red Sox and Mariners could get together for a golf tournament each October.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox and Mariners could get together for a golf tournament each October.

 

Or not.

 

LOL. Good one!

[Swiharts Ghost]

Ok after tonight this should be the number 1 thread on the board .Who can we off load Price and Sale to? Who can we get as a pitching coach ? And should we sell high on Vaz ? I think JBJ who is an amazing CF needs to go first .Should we try to dump Evoldi also ? I have one player in mind to extend and its Mookie . Edited September 6, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re not dealing Price or Sale right now. Price is staring at wrist surgery. Sale may be staring at elbow surgery. You’re not moving them .

[notin]

Ok after tonight this should be the number 1 thread on the board .Who can we off load Price and Sale to? Who can we get as a pitching coach ? And should we sell high on Vaz ? I think JBJ who is an amazing CF needs to go first .Should we try to dump Evoldi also ? I have one player in mind to extend and its Mookie .

 

Here’s how I see it.

 

The Sox are very likely keeping Sale, Price and Eovaldi. None of them did anything this season to interest another team.

 

Bradley is likely gonna if they try to reset (which isn’t a given right now). But even if they don’t reset, JBJ has also done very little to garner much trade value. (I predict he is non-tendered.)

 

If they reset, all the potential free agents are likely gone. Maybe not Holt. But everyone else.

 

Also I would think Hembree and Wright (especially Wright) get non-tendered.

 

So they would have 4 starting pitchers. And the bullpen could bring back Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brewer, Hernandez, Taylor, and Johnson. If they add a reliever, one of these pitchers is expendable.

 

Infield could be solved internally. Bogaerts and Devers are locks. 1b and 2b have numerous internal and unexciting candidates, including Chavis, Dalbec, Travis, Lin, Ockimey and Hernandez. And a couple more could take the bench.

 

Leon goes. Oscar Hernandez replaces him? Or Juan Centeno?

 

Outfield needs someone to go with Benintenfi and Betts.

 

Sportrac says the Sox have $56mill to spend and stay under the limit. Arbitration cases for Betts, Rodriguez, Benintendi, Barnes and Workman could run $40-45mill. If the Sox don’t want the internal solutions everywhere and maybe want another outfielder or two, there’s not a lot of cash in the budget...

[Michigan adam]

I think if you are resetting you Use JD in LF and rotate him in some rest from Holt etc. Has to be some pain somewhere, and LF will be one of those places. I wish they could work something out with Pederoia(sp), but the odds of the union letting them do a wink wink with him to get him to retire is probably slim. 5th starter, closer, and LF would likely be the biggest placing of heart burn in a reboot. Maybe mookie would take less in his arb year for a little more promised in his big extension after. Who knows.

[jacksonianmarch]

Spotrac also doesn’t count in medicals IIRC. I ran this earlier in the year, but if the whole gang returns minus Moreland, Pearce, Holt, Leon, Hembree and Porcello, the Sox should have something like $30 mil before hitting the top cap. Letting go of Bradley allows a reset.

 

But let’s say the Sox keep the band together, jettison Bradley and force a reset. That gives you precisely nothing. Your offense will be sharp, even with Mitch and Holt moving on. But the pitching...

 

Sale is hurt right now and was diminished all season. He’s not the guy you can hand the ball to and expect it back after seven strong with the lead. And his elbow treatment isn’t exactly proven to have great results. The guys who get the PRP for minor tears don’t usually come back with the same velocity and Sale was already showing signs of a velo decline. And that’s assuming it doesn’t fail and he ends up in Dr Andrews office next month and on the shelf for 2020

 

Price is going to have a procedure done on his pitching wrist. He’s shown a further loss of velocity and durability. He’s now spent a ton of time on the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons. This year he couldn’t even average 5IP per start. And he’s 34. You’re not seeing vintage Price walk through that door. He’s a 4 or 5 right now assuming his wrist issue gets fixed with no lingering effects

 

ERod has really blossomed into your ace. He’s not a standard lockdown ace, but he’s learned how to lead a rotation. Interestingly, he’s always been a guy who underperformed his peripherals with FIPs and xFIPs typically below his actual ERA. This year, he’s dropped the K rate which has hurt his peripherals but his actual ERA is better and he’s added length to his starts by pitching to more contact. He’s found far more success as a FB-CU-CH guy the last two seasons. He’s a guy who you’d have no issue with in your rotation, especially toward the top

 

Eovaldi is a train wreck. Injured, bad results mixed in with intermittent dominant performances. Welcome to the Nate Eovaldi show. I watched it for a couple years in the Bronx. Tantalizing stuff but made of glass and surprisingly hittable for a guy who can throw like him. Hes a wish and a prayer and I’m so glad he is not in the Bronx anymore!

 

Your rotation has literally one guy you can count on. You’ve got three health questionmarks and those same three guys come with inconsistent performance questions too.

 

Your pen has seen Workman blossom into a good reliever. Everyone else back there is either on borrowed time (Walden), is too wild (DHern) or has issue with the spotlight (Barnes).

 

So you need another starter at least, probably multiple pen additions and you’re at the reset minus JBJ. You’re going to force JDM into the OF or have another OFer out there that drops your offensive production. How do you align those puzzle pieces with a farm system that is on life support with the priest in the room?

 

I honestly don’t know how Henry can look at his chances for 2020 and think they’re good enough to invest more money. I think he’s smart enough to see the window closed, they followed good money with bad money and they’re stuck trying to rebuild. The Sox now remind me of the post 2012 Yankees. Overpaid team full of guys past their prime in need of a rebuild

[moonslav59]

And the bullpen could bring back Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brewer, Hernandez, Taylor, and Johnson. If they add a reliever, one of these pitchers is expendable.

 

We used 24 pitchers, this year. We could sign 3 decent RP'er and I'd still keep at least 7-9 of the ones we have already, not necessarily Johnson.

 

If everyone in our pen was knocked down a notch or two, they'd be pretty good in their lesser roles.

 

Workman and Barnes as 8th inning men.

 

Taylor and Walden as 7th inning men.

 

DHern and fill-in-the-blank as long men or 5th or 6th inning men.

 

I agree, we aren't trading Price, Sale or Eovaldi, especially when their stock is low. I'm not saying their stocks will all rise, but we won't et anything of value for them, except maybe some salary relief. We'll be better off, assuming a reset, to lose JBJ's contract and only sign a couple bit pieces to fill out the roster and keep us under $208.

 

Play some kids and see what they got. Maybe we find a keeper(s) or trade piece(s) for the future.

 

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey (Maybe give Ockimey some fill-in time at DH.)

 

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham

 

OF: Travis, Lin, Duran

 

P: DHern, Houck, Reyes, Shawaryn, Velazquez/Johnson (not really kids), Brewer, Lakins, Poyner and maybe late season Feltman, Ward or Mata.

 

 

[notin]

I think/hope Feltman can do something and turn it on to make his MLB debut next year. Mata is really one step away already by being in AA, but as he’s only 20, no reason to rush him. Make him force the promotion.

 

I don’t care if Velasquez and Johnson get DFAd. At least Velasquez has options. Johnson has better show something relatively soon. Houck and Reyes could be depth at some point, possibly Hart, too.

 

The free agent doesn’t have much for closer types. Maybe Hector Rondon fits the budget? Sergio Romo? He won’t command as much at age 38. Under normal circumstances I’d recommend a low cost flier on oft-injured Arodys Vizcaino, but if the budget is that tight, it better be a really low cost. And there is always Dellin Betances, who strikes me as Ramiro Mendoza 2.0 if the Sox sign him.

 

Of course the rotation is the issue. And the Sox are going to struggle to do anything with Price, Sale or Eovaldi. And they can only add one MLB body right now, and not an expensive one...

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox and Mariners could get together for a golf tournament each October.

 

Or not.

 

harmony, you're morphing into the new board funny man before our eyes.

[moonslav59]

I think/hope Feltman can do something and turn it on to make his MLB debut next year. Mata is really one step away already by being in AA, but as he’s only 20, no reason to rush him. Make him force the promotion.

 

I don’t care if Velasquez and Johnson get DFAd. At least Velasquez has options. Johnson has better show something relatively soon. Houck and Reyes could be depth at some point, possibly Hart, too.

 

The free agent doesn’t have much for closer types. Maybe Hector Rondon fits the budget? Sergio Romo? He won’t command as much at age 38. Under normal circumstances I’d recommend a low cost flier on oft-injured Arodys Vizcaino, but if the budget is that tight, it better be a really low cost. And there is always Dellin Betances, who strikes me as Ramiro Mendoza 2.0 if the Sox sign him.

 

Of course the rotation is the issue. And the Sox are going to struggle to do anything with Price, Sale or Eovaldi. And they can only add one MLB body right now, and not an expensive one...

 

It's all about the question of the reset.

 

Even if we lose JBJ's contract, we'll have just a tiny bit of wiggle room that is usually the amount put in reserve for mid season pick-ups.

 

That would mean we sign no one at all.

 

This is what that JBJ-less 2020 team might look like:

 

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi + one from DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Houck

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Hembree?, Brewer?, Brasier?, Lakins? (SP>RP?)

C: Vaz + Leon (if he takes big pay cut) or Centeno

1B: Chavis/Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey

2B: Marco/Chavis/Lin/Chatham

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Travis/JD

CF: Beni

RF: Betts

DH: JD/Ockimey

 

Besides the obvious holes in the pitching staff, a defensive CF'er might be the highest priority with the little funds we'll have.

 

[moonslav59]

harmony, you're morphing into the new board funny man before our eyes.

 

The funniest part is that when he's serious, he's funnier.