A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

If YOU think we have some dead weights on our roster, what makes you think other teams' GM's won't see the same thing? If you want to truly rebuild, then you trade someone like E Rod who is under team control for two more years but that won't fit into our rebuild plans. Now the teams can OVERPAY for someone like E Rod. Two years of team control is long time for a team that wants to win now.

 

Beni would be another candidate. Guys already in arbitration process are the ones bringing back some talent. Not the old farts with heavy contracts.

 

I've said I'd think about trading ERod and Beni, if it didn't look like we could extend them, but we can maybe wait to deal them.

 

1) We need to reset to vastly improve our chances at getting better starting in 2021. Trading Price, Eovaldi & JBJ would do that, while also freeing up roster spaces and head aches going forward.

2) We need to get what we can for Betts, JD, Workman, barnes and Hernbree (not much with him). I'm all for ringing Betts & JD back after 2020, if the price is right.

3) We can look to trade ERod & Beni, but I'd like to see how our 2021 outlook looks before pulling the trigger on dealing them. (I'm not for handing them away, either. Equal or plus value or no deal.)

 

I want us to be back near the top by 2021- 2022 at the latest. I think clinging to the hope we win in 2020 seriously hurts the chances we get good quickly and forcefully. I'm not trying to come off as a know-it-all. I've been wrong many times before- most notably the 2013 team, which I felt we "played it half way" and were hurting our chances for 2014 and beyond by pretending to be super competitors in 2013.

 

I get the need to keep fans in the stands and watching NESN. I'm not saying my idea is best for business or is even being considered on the back burner, but as a fan, I think it's the best idea.

 

I don't want to sit through another 2019, unless I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Keeping everyone just makes the tunnel darker and longer.

 

[moonslav59]

I get the Sox have some higher priorities, but it does seem like trading Betts is more likely now.

 

I just hope the Sox don’t use him to entice someone to take Price and instead use him to recoup some of the value the Sox are likely to lose in the form of draft pick losses...

 

If we trade Betts, especially for top prospects, then the chances of winning in 2020 go way down.

 

Why trade only Betts, except to keep a few fans from not watching at all?

 

If Betts goes, then it should be a fire sale of all short term contracts.

[moonslav59]

if they are doing full blown rebuild then the best trading chips are:

devers

beni

X-bo (although maybe not so much now that he doesnt know what pitch is coming)

Erod

but AFAIK, we are not doing a full blown rebuild. we are simply resetting the tax. so price/betts/JBj will need to be moved.

 

Devers and to some extent Bogey have enough team control to stay and be around by the time the "rebuild" is complete. I'm hooked on Sale, but logically, he could be on the block, as well. maybe waiting for him to show a rebound might change the plan or up his trade value.)

 

When you can spend like we do, we can have hopes in a quicker turn-around.

 

4+ year control players can stay.

(Sale, Bogey, Devers, DHern and others)

 

3 year control players are on the bubble- no rush to trade, either.

(Trade JD- will opt out anyways, Price & Eovaldi. Beni can be considered. Peraza, Plawecki & Oshic likely won't matter.)

 

2 year control players could be traded now, in July or next summer, if they are not in our longer term plans or seem like they won't extend.

(Pedey is not tradable. Trade Barnes & Hembree. Try to extend ERod.)

 

1 year players should all go, unless they bring nothing back in return, including salary relief.

(Betts, JD, JBJ, Workman)

[kenmeister]

I don't want to sit through another 2019, unless I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Keeping everyone just makes the tunnel darker and longer.

 

 

I have to say I was amazed last year how many people on this forum had hope until near the end of the season.

[notin]

If we trade Betts, especially for top prospects, then the chances of winning in 2020 go way down.

 

Why trade only Betts, except to keep a few fans from not watching at all?

 

If Betts goes, then it should be a fire sale of all short term contracts.

 

The Sox should step back for 2020 if they trade Betts, but it isn’t a white flag for the season, depending on what they get back....

[Slasher9]

Devers and to some extent Bogey have enough team control to stay and be around by the time the "rebuild" is complete. I'm hooked on Sale, but logically, he could be on the block, as well. maybe waiting for him to show a rebound might change the plan or up his trade value.)

 

When you can spend like we do, we can have hopes in a quicker turn-around.

 

4+ year control players can stay.

(Sale, Bogey, Devers, DHern and others)

 

3 year control players are on the bubble- no rush to trade, either.

(Trade JD- will opt out anyways, Price & Eovaldi. Beni can be considered. Peraza, Plawecki & Oshic likely won't matter.)

 

2 year control players could be traded now, in July or next summer, if they are not in our longer term plans or seem like they won't extend.

(Pedey is not tradable. Trade Barnes & Hembree. Try to extend ERod.)

 

1 year players should all go, unless they bring nothing back in return, including salary relief.

(Betts, JD, JBJ, Workman)

 

all good points. i was simply trying to state what would get us the best haul of prospects. especially now since we will not have a first or second round pick for the next 2-3 drafts. devers alone can get us the best haul of prospects ever gained in a trade.

[Slasher9]

I have to say I was amazed last year how many people on this forum had hope until near the end of the season.

 

i have hope until Math tells me otherwise.

i will always believe we can win 20 in a row to make the postseason.

[moonslav59]

I have to say I was amazed last year how many people on this forum had hope until near the end of the season.

 

I did, too. Usually, I'm one of the last to jump ship, but last year I may have been one of the first.

[kenmeister]

i have hope until Math tells me otherwise.

i will always believe we can win 20 in a row to make the postseason.

 

I (sometimes mistakenly) size up a team and determine whether it's a winner or loser by May. I thought the 2003 team was a winner. I thought the 2013 team was good but not great until, you know, they started pulling off heroics. But the 2019 team never had the feel of a winner. Sometimes a team becomes a winner mid-season but it's too late, like when Lovullo took over the 2015 Sox at the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

The Sox should step back for 2020 if they trade Betts, but it isn’t a white flag for the season, depending on what they get back....

 

True, but IMO trading Betts should be for a player(s) more helpful in the future than 2020.

[moonslav59]

all good points. i was simply trying to state what would get us the best haul of prospects. especially now since we will not have a first or second round pick for the next 2-3 drafts. devers alone can get us the best haul of prospects ever gained in a trade.

 

But, we'd be hoping one prospect would be as good as Devers. I get the idea that the clock of that prospect(s) we obtain for Devers would begin and end somewhere around 2022-2027 and encompass more "rebuilt years" than Devers (2020-2023), but we know Devers will be great for at least 1-3 years of the newly rebuilt team.

 

Someone would have to blow me away to get me to trade Devers. Once we trade JBJ, he's my fave.

[Bellhorn04]

AFAIK, we are not doing a full blown rebuild. we are simply resetting the tax. so price/betts/JBj will need to be moved.

 

They may not even be re-setting the tax.

[notin]

They may not even be re-setting the tax.

 

But will they be competitive?

[Bellhorn04]

But will they be competitive?

 

That's the stated priority.

[moonslav59]

They may not even be re-setting the tax.

 

With all this crap going on, not re-setting would, to me, be idiotic.

 

(I felt we should reset, even before Coragate."

[moonslav59]

That's the stated priority.

 

So was resetting.

[Bellhorn04]

So was resetting.

 

JH made that one comment about wanting to re-set back in September, but it's been walked back ever since. Now he's gone on record about what the priorities are.

 

Plus, of course, none of the payroll cutting trades have happened.

 

If there's going to be any payroll cutting, it won't be till July.

[mvp 78]

JH made that one comment about wanting to re-set back in September, but it's been walked back ever since. Now he's gone on record about what the priorities are.

 

Plus, of course, none of the payroll cutting trades have happened.

 

If there's going to be any payroll cutting, it won't be till July.

 

So they're just punting this season then? They don't have anyone to platoon with Chavis at 1b. The 5th OF is Lin.

 

They need to make some moves if they want to compete. They need to make some moves if they want to get under the cap. Right now, neither is happening.

 

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they dump Mookie/Price next week after this weekend's winter nonsense at Fenway.

[Bellhorn04]

So they're just punting this season then? They don't have anyone to platoon with Chavis at 1b. The 5th OF is Lin.

 

They need to make some moves if they want to compete. They need to make some moves if they want to get under the cap. Right now, neither is happening.

 

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they dump Mookie/Price next week after this weekend's winter nonsense at Fenway.

 

I'd be beyond surprised if they trade Mookie now. That would just start up a whole new firestorm.

 

As for Price, there hasn't even been a decent rumor for weeks.

[harmony]

I'd be beyond surprised if they trade Mookie now. That would just start up a whole new firestorm.

 

As for Price, there hasn't even been a decent rumor for weeks.

Perhaps it would be better to get all the negative stuff out of the way at one time instead of dragging everything out.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

JH made that one comment about wanting to re-set back in September, but it's been walked back ever since. Now he's gone on record about what the priorities are.

 

Plus, of course, none of the payroll cutting trades have happened.

 

If there's going to be any payroll cutting, it won't be till July.

 

Walked back or not, it's something they want to do.

[moonslav59]

So they're just punting this season then? They don't have anyone to platoon with Chavis at 1b. The 5th OF is Lin.

 

They need to make some moves if they want to compete. They need to make some moves if they want to get under the cap. Right now, neither is happening.

 

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they dump Mookie/Price next week after this weekend's winter nonsense at Fenway.

 

It's obvious, to me, we are punting but trying to keep fans thinking we're not.

 

Our bench is Plawecki, Lin, Arauz and maybe Dalbec or Chatham.

 

Our pen is Workman, Barnes, Taylor, walden, DHern and a bunch of prayers.

 

Porcello> Perez

Moreland> Chavis (1B)

Chavis> Peraza (2B)

 

Time to reset & rebuild. Make it short.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps it would be better to get all the negative stuff out of the way at one time instead of dragging everything out.

 

Or not.

 

Forget the "or not." It's the obvious solution.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading Betts before Spring Training would be suicide for Red Sox ownership at this point. Unless the return is a haul of MLB-ready prospects from the Braves or Dodgers, which 99% of media and posters say has a 1% chance of happening. There's more of a chance for the Sox roster as is to contend, especially if a HOFer like Bochy can turn frowns to smiles.

[moonslav59]

Trading Betts before Spring Training would be suicide for Red Sox ownership at this point. Unless the return is a haul of MLB-ready prospects from the Braves or Dodgers, which 99% of media and posters say has a 1% chance of happening. There's more of a chance for the Sox roster as is to contend, especially if a HOFer like Bochy can turn frowns to smiles.

 

What roster, 2020?

 

Yes, we might contend. I may think it's a longer shot than other here, but many AL teams improved- some by a lot, while we got worse (on paper).

 

I get the business end of the issue. It's all about making money, and trading Betts will hurt sales and viewership. I'm only giving my opinion on what I'd like to see, which is for us to get back to the top as quickly as possible.

 

Pretending to be contenders in 2020 is only going to worsen and lengthen the trip back to the top.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Betts before Spring Training would be suicide for Red Sox ownership at this point.

 

It's just not happening.

[mvp 78]

It's just not happening.

 

We'll see. I think it's a 30% likelihood.

[moonslav59]

I'd say the odds are better than 50-50 Betts is traded by August 1st.

[harmony]

I'd say the odds are better than 50-50 Betts is traded by August 1st.

Does Mookie Betts want to traded in light of the current circumstances?

 

Would Betts prefer to be traded midseason to avoid the qualifying offer? Or is Betts so elite that the qualifying offer would not deter his suitors next offseason?

Edited January 16, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Does Mookie Betts want to traded in light of the current circumstances?

 

Would Betts prefer to be traded midseason to avoid the qualifying offer? Or is Betts so elite that the qualifying offer would not deter his suitors next offseason?

 

I doubt the QO matters much, but it can't hurt to not have it.

 

I'm not sure what Betts wants. Ideally, I hope he wants to stay in Boston and won't mind, if we trade him then pay him largely to come back.