A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's like people want to stop all the talk about emptying the farm. It really isa big deal. you can be happy about the results of 2018 and how those trades factored in, but that doesn't mean you have to rationalize that the Sox didn't give up anything. It's not even true none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year. In no version of reality is Brock Holt superior to Yoan Moncada or Brian Johnson better than Logan Allen.

 

The real issue was the Sox traded away long term potential for short term success. It worked as well as it could in 2018, but the short term success also now appears to have been even shorter than originally hoped for, and one year later the Sox have reached a point where they could use some serious help from the farm...

 

Yes, we hoped for 4-5 years of highly competitive teams, but we did get 3 years (2016-2018), and this year had a lot of hope going into the season.

 

I share you view on the "reality" of the situation, and I knew a reckoning time was coming. I had hoped it might be after 2020, but it's looking more and more like the day is upon us.

 

Again, I'm glad we won the ring in 2018, or this debate would be a lot more heated.

 

I'm okay with paying a price for our success. I just hope we can keep the retool/rebuild period to a minimum.

 

By spending close to the tax limit every year, we should never be all that bad. Those years under Ben were freakish.

[moonslav59]

It’s more than just what you traded away.

 

Moncada is turning into a franchise infielder

Kopech is going to return next year from TJS and had looked like a monster before that

Dubon just got a starting job and has torn up the minors

Logan Allen was a top 100 prospect coming into the year

Margot is a capable defender who just started hitting again

 

Those five guys would be useful, but that’s only part of DD’s rape and pillage of your farm. His drafts have been universally panned. His IFA signings have, for the most part, not been impactful. And for the rest of the talent there his team isn’t developing well.

 

There’s steps to developing a farm

 

Identifying talent

Drafting or signing talent

Developing talent

Keeping talent/graduating to the majors

 

DD has failed on all levels of farm management

 

I don't disagree with anything here, but I will say that having a top 3 record team for 3 straight years makes drafting well pretty hard. Spending large, which is on DD and Ben's shoulders, also cuts down on international pool money and caused us to drop 10 slots in the draft once, from an already poor slot.

 

I'm not defending DD on this, and other winning teams seem to draft better than us, but it's not as easy as it used to be back in Theo and Ben's days. BTW, the Cubs farm system is pretty weak, too, but Theo is still viewed as "the genius."

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone said none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year.

 

Obviously Moncada would be.

 

Saying that Logan Allen is better than Brian Johnson ain't saying much, of course...

 

I'm not saying that the losses won't be turn out to be significant. No one can say that at this point. But it is fair to say that the losses are largely potential ones, not realized ones.

 

That's what trading prospects for proven vets is all about, and as you mentioned, we'll have to re-evaluate the deals in a few years. The other thing to think about is how many years of control Moncada, Logan and others will have with their teams vs the 3 years of Kimbrel & Sale and whatever you want to count Pomeranz's years as.

[Slasher9]

on the very day he was hired - did anyone NOT think DD was going to empty the farm?

its what he does....

thankfully it resulted in a parade.

[notin]

on the very day he was hired - did anyone NOT think DD was going to empty the farm?

its what he does....

thankfully it resulted in a parade.

 

I think I mind that he emptied the farm less than I mind the denial about it...

[moonslav59]

on the very day he was hired - did anyone NOT think DD was going to empty the farm?

its what he does....

thankfully it resulted in a parade.

 

He did keep Devers, so it wasn't a total emptying of the farm.

 

He chose the right one to keep.

 

We also need to remember, he traded Travis Shaw with some prospects (including Dubon) to get Thornburg. Let's not just talk about the deals where the players we dealt for did well.

 

For the most part, most did well. Pom's "well" was short-lived, but he still did well for a good stretch. He also traded Buttrey & Beeks more recently.

 

Here are all the prospects I can think of, that DD traded with their top soxprospects.com ranking included. While many of the prospects listed have looked bad or were already in decline before being traded, the sheer enormity of the amount of prospects traded is very telling.

1 Moncada

1 Swihart

2 Owens

3 Margot

3 Espinoza

5 Kopech

5 Beeks

5 Marrero

6 J Guerra

7 Basabe

9 Dubon

12 Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 Rijo

13 Allen

17 Buttrey

17 Basabe

20 Shepherd

20 Gerson

 

[Slasher9]

I think I mind that he emptied the farm less than I mind the denial about it...

 

agree, but is DD denying it or TS posters?

[Slasher9]

He did keep Devers, so it wasn't a total emptying of the farm.

 

He chose the right one to keep.

 

only by default. devers was brought up way early in a "panic move". did it work out for us and for devers? yes.

thankfully the kid works very hard at his job and has a pretty quick learning curve.

[Bellhorn04]

I honestly don't think even DD would have traded Devers. I'm sure he got some asks for him...

[kenmeister]

 

We also need to remember, he traded Travis Shaw with some prospects (including Dubon) to get Thornburg. Let's not just talk about the deals where the players we dealt for did well.

 

 

Travis Shaw is the latest Will Middlebrooks. I guess some guys only have a couple good years in them.

[Carpin]

I honestly don't think even DD would have traded Devers. I'm sure he got some asks for him...

 

He was right on keeping Devers, but back in those days everybody was asking for Moncada, Devers was a very good prospects, but Moncada was near the top of every prospect list and was very close to the ML.

 

I'm sure DD received some calls for Devers, but back in the day if the White Sox have proposed Devers over Moncada, what do you think would be DD's (and everybody else) answer?

[moonslav59]

only by default. devers was brought up way early in a "panic move". did it work out for us and for devers? yes.

thankfully the kid works very hard at his job and has a pretty quick learning curve.

 

I don't like the term "panic."

 

I think Devers' bat was ML ready before they called him up.

 

He still needed work on his defense, but I think they correctly judged his character to know that he would not be greatly affected by fielding mistakes and media/fan criticism over the expected multitude of errors.

 

We needed a 3Bman, badly. Devers may not have been fully ready, but I don't think it was a "panic move." (BTW, I fully supported the call-up at the time.)

 

How many times have the Sox been accused of babying prospects and waiting too long to call them up? That goes way back to Rice & Lynn who were about the same age as Evans.

 

I'd say this is one area, we've been pretty good at. (I did have an issue with only giving Bogey 10 games at 3B before calling him up to play 3B, but that move worked, too.)

[jacksonianmarch]

DD also kept Beni. It’s about waves of talent. You don’t have as good of a farm when you graduate all star caliber players. But by the time those players get expensive, you need to have the next guy coming. Sometimes you deal off or let go of the all star player, sometimes you deal off the prospect. But having no recourse is dangerous for long term viability

 

Now, you don’t have to develop your own guys, but you need to restock your farm somehow. A trade for a distressed asset isn’t a bad idea, but DD doesn’t really do those.

[moonslav59]

Travis Shaw is the latest Will Middlebrooks. I guess some guys only have a couple good years in them.

 

Middy only had a half season of good hitting. (75 games in 2012) He fell to .696 in 2013 and hit .556 in his following years combined.

 

Shaw had a similar first year (.813 in 65 games with BOS in 2015), but then had an okay year (.726 in 145 gms) followed by 2 very good years (.862 and .825 in 2017 & 2018) He hit over 30 HRs both years.

 

His .556 OPS this year in 228 PAs is certainly like Middy, but if you look at his minor league career, he was up and down almost every half season.

[moonslav59]

DD also kept Beni. It’s about waves of talent. You don’t have as good of a farm when you graduate all star caliber players. But by the time those players get expensive, you need to have the next guy coming. Sometimes you deal off or let go of the all star player, sometimes you deal off the prospect. But having no recourse is dangerous for long term viability

 

Now, you don’t have to develop your own guys, but you need to restock your farm somehow. A trade for a distressed asset isn’t a bad idea, but DD doesn’t really do those.

 

The Dodgers have been masters of winning (although not rings), trading prospects and trading for prospects to keep their farm strong at all times.

 

The Braves, Rays and Twins are in pretty good situations, right now, but they had to be bad a few years to get good again.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the Yanks have proven to be masters of trading for presumed AAAAers and turning them into real big league talent. Although it looks like they miscalculated Gallegos worth in the Voit deal

[Slasher9]

I think the Yanks have proven to be masters of trading for presumed AAAAers and turning them into real big league talent. Although it looks like they miscalculated Gallegos worth in the Voit deal

 

i think your wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

i think your wrong.

 

 

[notin]

I think the Yanks have proven to be masters of trading for presumed AAAAers and turning them into real big league talent. Although it looks like they miscalculated Gallegos worth in the Voit deal

 

Yeah Voit’s been a real downer.

 

He did what you needed him to do - make everybody forget about Greg Bird...

[moonslav59]

Yeah Voit’s been a real downer.

 

He did what you needed him to do - make everybody forget about Greg Bird...

 

I think it was more about the "AAAA" player sent to STL. Gallegos has pitched 61 innings and has a 0.738 WHIP and a K rate of 11.8 after spending 8 years or part years in the minors and just turning 28 two weeks ago.

[moonslav59]

Here is exactly what I have been talking about when people complain that the players are overpaid.

 

Beyond all the profits, hidden profits, side companies owned by the owner who make money off the team, perhaps the most money the owner makes is when he sells the team.

 

The KC Royals, for God's sake, just sold for a billion dollars!

 

David Glass bought the team in 2000 for just $96 million. He just made over 10 times his money in a 19 year span.

 

The players, rightfully, get no share of this, but when owners cry poverty, it rings hollow to me.

[oldtimer]

Here is exactly what I have been talking about when people complain that the players are overpaid.

 

Beyond all the profits, hidden profits, side companies owned by the owner who make money off the team, perhaps the most money the owner makes is when he sells the team.

 

The KC Royals, for God's sake, just sold for a billion dollars!

 

David Glass bought the team in 2000 for just $96 million. He just made over 10 times his money in a 19 year span.

 

The players, rightfully, get no share of this, but when owners cry poverty, it rings hollow to me.

 

Hard for me to feel sorry for a guy making $1 ml per start.

[notin]

I think it was more about the "AAAA" player sent to STL. Gallegos has pitched 61 innings and has a 0.738 WHIP and a K rate of 11.8 after spending 8 years or part years in the minors and just turning 28 two weeks ago.

 

If I was a Yankee fan, I still wouldn’t be upset about that deal. They needed a 1b, not more bullpen help...

[moonslav59]

Hard for me to feel sorry for a guy making $1 ml per start.

 

I don't feel sorry for them either, but when people complain about how much they make, it's just a small fraction of all the money made.

 

You hardly ever hear people complain about owners making so much money, and they sometimes make billions.

[moonslav59]

If I was a Yankee fan, I still wouldn’t be upset about that deal. They needed a 1b, not more bullpen help...

 

I agree. Voit had filled a void very well.

[Bellhorn04]

Beyond all the profits, hidden profits, side companies owned by the owner who make money off the team, perhaps the most money the owner makes is when he sells the team.

 

The KC Royals, for God's sake, just sold for a billion dollars!

 

David Glass bought the team in 2000 for just $96 million. He just made over 10 times his money in a 19 year span.

 

The interesting question is, is this the end of the bubble?

 

Does anyone think the KC Royals will be worth $10 billion in another 19 years?

[moonslav59]

The interesting question is, is this the end of the bubble?

 

Does anyone think the KC Royals will be worth $10 billion in another 19 years?

 

I don't, and certainly owners take a risk, but a $904M profit is pretty damn good for 19 years of "work."

[notin]

The interesting question is, is this the end of the bubble?

 

Does anyone think the KC Royals will be worth $10 billion in another 19 years?

 

I'm saving my pocket change now, just in case...

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox, meanwhile, purchased for 700 million in 2001, are currently worth an estimated 3.2 billion. So that's a tidy capital gain of 2.5 billion.

[dgalehouse]

It is kind of amusing when there is a money dispute between the owners and the players , fans call the players greedy , and side with the owners . The next negotiations on an agreement should be interesting . The players are aware of how cheap some of the owners are , and how enormous their profits really are .