A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

If you know your opponents intent, you can extract as much talent as you can to allow them to reach that intent

 

Wut?

 

The whole premise of this 'tipping your hand' crap is pretty dumb.

 

If the Red Sox let other teams know David Price is available, it's pretty clear they're doing it to cut payroll, isn't it?

[Bellhorn04]

Fascinating franchise.

 

Four World Series titles this century, three last-place finishes in the past decade, baseball's highest payroll the last two seasons, luxury-tax concerns hinder team's ability to keep big-ticket players, president of baseball operations fired before end of 2019 season, Red Sox part company with manager under pressure in January.

 

Yep, never a dull freaking moment.

 

Even when times are good LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

Wut?

 

The whole premise of this 'tipping your hand' crap is pretty dumb.

 

If the Red Sox let other teams know David Price is available, it's pretty clear they're doing it to cut payroll, isn't it?

 

If a team knows you’re going under a certain number, then it doesn’t take much to figure out how low they need to go. Knowing their limit in terms of how much financial burden they can assume is extremely helpful. That sets the bottom for your offers

[Bellhorn04]

If a team knows you’re going under a certain number, then it doesn’t take much to figure out how low they need to go. Knowing their limit in terms of how much financial burden they can assume is extremely helpful. That sets the bottom for your offers

 

They can make whatever offer they want. It's up to Bloom to decide if it's acceptable.

[notin]

Tony Massarotti, Seam McAdam, and John Tomase all agreed on Shaughnessy's article. It was not smart by Henry, it hurt Bloom.

 

So does that mean that before this off-season, these 4 sportswriters thought there was potential value in dealing Price? That Price would be a straight up salary dump became obvious in 2016. Ditto Eovaldi.

 

The only Sox players I expected anything of value from who were potential trade bait were Betts and some from Bradley. I also think Sale at some point could have serious value on that contract assuming he can prove he isn’t hurt...

[moonslav59]

They can make whatever offer they want. It's up to Bloom to decide if it's acceptable.

 

Yes, and unlike the Dodger dump trade, where we just paid a very little cash per year, we can take back some salary to trade away Price & Eovaldi. We didn't do that with Crawford & Beckett. We just handed them AGon to more or less "even it out."

[kenmeister]

At this point I'd rather stick with Price another year and hope that he can actually make his starts. All the good free agents are gone anyway so there's no point in clearing salary anymore.

[moonslav59]

At this point I'd rather stick with Price another year and hope that he can actually make his starts. All the good free agents are gone anyway so there's no point in clearing salary anymore.

 

There's little point in keeping them, either, unless you think his stock will rise.

 

With his arm being held together by voodoo, I'm not sure the wait will help.

 

Maybe we should just order surgery on the big 3 and hope 2021 brings good health. (Sarcasm alert.)

[Nick]

There's little point in keeping them, either, unless you think his stock will rise.

 

With his arm being held together by voodoo, I'm not sure the wait will help.

 

Maybe we should just order surgery on the big 3 and hope 2021 brings good health. (Sarcasm alert.)

 

Moon, you're becoming a drag.....we have good offense, there's no reason to believe starters will outperform last year's stats, bullpen is better.

 

Maybe you should cheer for the Rays this year.

[mvp 78]

It’s ok to be cynical sometimes. It doesn’t make you less of a fan.

[a700hitter]

wait...what? we can get paid!?!?

Didn't you submit your direct deposit form?

[Larry Cook]

Seems like the other teams are nervous about trading anything of value for price until he can prove he is healthy.

[notin]

Yes, and unlike the Dodger dump trade, where we just paid a very little cash per year, we can take back some salary to trade away Price & Eovaldi. We didn't do that with Crawford & Beckett. We just handed them AGon to more or less "even it out."

 

Actually the Sox kicked in $12 mill, which was less than 5% of what those players were owed...

[jacksonianmarch]

Seems like the other teams are nervous about trading anything of value for price until he can prove he is healthy.

 

That’s exactly what I said at the outset of the offseason. Nobody is gonna want a post surgery Price at a heavy financial burden until they see him pitch in games

[notin]

That’s exactly what I said at the outset of the offseason. Nobody is gonna want a post surgery Price at a heavy financial burden until they see him pitch in games

 

I’m willing to bet it was the Red Sox who refused any Price-Myers swap, based on Myers not being good at baseball.

 

Price’s contract is 3 years long; is anyone going to be reassured about paying him $1mill/start over the next 3 years based on a couple post-injury innings?

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m willing to bet it was the Red Sox who refused any Price-Myers swap, based on Myers not being good at baseball.

 

Price’s contract is 3 years long; is anyone going to be reassured about paying him $1mill/start over the next 3 years based on a couple post-injury innings?

 

I bet it was mutual. Never understood Price to SD. That’s a 70 win team that needs an ace, not a broken down malcontent coming off another injury filled season. The Padres have the capital to trade for anyone they want. They don’t have to dumpster dive and take on a massive commitment

[notin]

I bet it was mutual. Never understood Price to SD. That’s a 70 win team that needs an ace, not a broken down malcontent coming off another injury filled season. The Padres have the capital to trade for anyone they want. They don’t have to dumpster dive and take on a massive commitment

 

Really?

 

Price is a 2.3 fWAR pitcher. Start there.

 

More important to SD was Myers’ salary jumps from $5mill to $22.7 mill this year for the next 3 seasons. That’s a heckuva raise for the fifth outfielder on the depth chart, and if the Padres dealt him for Price, they would be getting a 2.3 fWAR starter for a net cost of $9mill per season. Even in limited action, Price outpitched Tanner Roark last year, and Roark got $12mill per.

 

How does that NOT make sense for San Diego?

 

It only makes sense for Boston because that massive raise means that while Myers is making $22.7 mill, his luxury tax number is still $13.8mill. That does represent a $17mill cut into the reset. But if the Sox replace Price externally, it’s going to cost a big chunk of that $17mil.

 

And THAT is why the deal is a no-brained for SanDiego but makes a lot less sense for Boston. And why Bloom didn’t make it...

[Slasher9]

Didn't you submit your direct deposit form?

 

submitted!

wondering if i should put the downpayment on the beach house now or wait until my first check arrives?

[moonslav59]

Moon, you're becoming a drag.....we have good offense, there's no reason to believe starters will outperform last year's stats, bullpen is better.

 

Maybe you should cheer for the Rays this year.

 

Nice try. There is no bigger Sox fan than I am in the whole world. I'll concede maybe a few people are tied, but nobody is more.

 

I'm for trading away many players precisely because I love the Sox and want to see them win for many many years.

 

Just because I have a different view about winning now (which we won't) at the expense of the future does not lessen my fan level of support.

 

I agree, we have a top 3-4 line-up, and we could hope enough pitchers come back strong this year, but I still think with all that happening, we will not be a top 4-5 contender. Can we win next year? Sure. Should we sacrifice more of the future for that long shot hope? I don't think so, but go right ahead, if you want, but when I hear you bitching about how much we suck after 2020, I might have to pull out the old, "I told you so."

 

BTW, I plan on continuing my streak of watching every pitch of every Sox game again, this year, why? Because I'm the baddest Mo-Fo Sox fan walking the planet!

[moonslav59]

Actually the Sox kicked in $12 mill, which was less than 5% of what those players were owed...

 

That's not much. 5% of Price's deal is less than $5M. Price + Eovaldi is about $5.1M. I do that in a heart beat with nothing back in return... not even a Ruby de la Rosa!

[moonslav59]

That’s exactly what I said at the outset of the offseason. Nobody is gonna want a post surgery Price at a heavy financial burden until they see him pitch in games

 

Teams sign pitchers all the time that are worse off than Price. The question is how much will they pay?

 

Some teams sign pitchers they know won't pitch until year 2, but they don't get much.

 

Price is expected to pitch. Yes, it's a gamble, but it's also a gamble on whether Wil Myers or AJ Pollock (or be healthy) will perform well, next year, too.

[mvp 78]

BTW, I plan on continuing my streak of watching every pitch of every Sox game again, this year, why?

 

Well that's because you're a glutton for punishment.

[moonslav59]

I bet it was mutual. Never understood Price to SD. That’s a 70 win team that needs an ace, not a broken down malcontent coming off another injury filled season. The Padres have the capital to trade for anyone they want. They don’t have to dumpster dive and take on a massive commitment

 

There are no aces left. SD won't trade a top prospect for one either.

 

They don't need Myers, and would gladly dump him for nothing, so giving us Myers for Price, essentially means they take a gamble on Price for $27.5M/3 ($96M-$68.5M) or about $9M a year.

 

They paid garret Richards $15.5M/2 knowing he wouldn't pitch in 2019. That's $7.75M x 2 for a big health question mark.

 

I'm not saying the deal is a slam dunk win for SD, but they have plenty of OF'ers and Hosmer at 1B. They need an ace, and at least Price offers a chance of one. Something doing nothing won't solve.

[moonslav59]

Well that's because you're a glutton for punishment.

 

I've had more joy watching the Sox these past 17 years than the first 30 combined.

 

Yes, it gets painful, at times, but this team has had a lot of promise, even when losing, for almost 2 decades straight.

[Nick]

Nice try. There is no bigger Sox fan than I am in the whole world. I'll concede maybe a few people are tied, but nobody is more.

 

I'm for trading away many players precisely because I love the Sox and want to see them win for many many years.

 

Just because I have a different view about winning now (which we won't) at the expense of the future does not lessen my fan level of support.

 

I agree, we have a top 3-4 line-up, and we could hope enough pitchers come back strong this year, but I still think with all that happening, we will not be a top 4-5 contender. Can we win next year? Sure. Should we sacrifice more of the future for that long shot hope? I don't think so, but go right ahead, if you want, but when I hear you bitching about how much we suck after 2020, I might have to pull out the old, "I told you so."

 

BTW, I plan on continuing my streak of watching every pitch of every Sox game again, this year, why? Because I'm the baddest Mo-Fo Sox fan walking the planet!

 

If YOU think we have some dead weights on our roster, what makes you think other teams' GM's won't see the same thing? If you want to truly rebuild, then you trade someone like E Rod who is under team control for two more years but that won't fit into our rebuild plans. Now the teams can OVERPAY for someone like E Rod. Two years of team control is long time for a team that wants to win now.

 

Beni would be another candidate. Guys already in arbitration process are the ones bringing back some talent. Not the old farts with heavy contracts.

Edited January 16, 2020 by Nick

[mvp 78]

If YOU think we have some dead weights on our roster, what makes you think other teams' GM's won't see the same thing? If you want to truly rebuild, then you trade someone like E Rod who is under team control for two more years but that won't fit into our rebuild plans. Now the teams can OVERPAY for someone like E Rod. Two years of team control is long time for a team that wants to win now.

 

Beni would be another candidate. Guys already in arbitration process are the ones bringing back some talent. Not the old farts with heavy contracts.

 

They're trading the older guys to get under the tax cap. Trading Beni and ERod doesn't do that.

[Nick]

They're trading the older guys to get under the tax cap. Trading Beni and ERod doesn't do that.

 

True.....I was speaking strictly from 'rebuild'. You would also trade JBJ and Betts in addition to Beni and E Rod.

 

Betts is easy.

 

Option 1) keep him, pay him $28M and get a 4th round pick

Option 2) Trade him, get relieved of $28M, get something better than a 4th round pick

[notin]

True.....I was speaking strictly from 'rebuild'. You would also trade JBJ and Betts in addition to Beni and E Rod.

 

Betts is easy.

 

Option 1) keep him, pay him $28M and get a 4th round pick

Option 2) Trade him, get relieved of $28M, get something better than a 4th round pick

 

 

I get the Sox have some higher priorities, but it does seem like trading Betts is more likely now.

 

I just hope the Sox don’t use him to entice someone to take Price and instead use him to recoup some of the value the Sox are likely to lose in the form of draft pick losses...

[mvp 78]

True.....I was speaking strictly from 'rebuild'. You would also trade JBJ and Betts in addition to Beni and E Rod.

 

Betts is easy.

 

Option 1) keep him, pay him $28M and get a 4th round pick

Option 2) Trade him, get relieved of $28M, get something better than a 4th round pick

 

Not sure many people want JBJ at that price point. I think they'd trade Mookie if an acceptable trade came around.

 

I still believe they aren't doing any major deals until after this weekend's winter at Fenway event.

[Slasher9]

if they are doing full blown rebuild then the best trading chips are:

devers

beni

X-bo (although maybe not so much now that he doesnt know what pitch is coming)

Erod

but AFAIK, we are not doing a full blown rebuild. we are simply resetting the tax. so price/betts/JBj will need to be moved.