A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Is Devers really the 4th best defensive 3Bman in MLB?

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/infield-defense?year=2019&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=5&roles=&viz=show

 

(Bogey is 23rd at SS.)

[moonslav59]

Or ERod?

 

Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)

 

Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)

[mvp 78]

Is Devers really the 4th best defensive 3Bman in MLB?

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/infield-defense?year=2019&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=5&roles=&viz=show

 

(Bogey is 23rd at SS.)

Yeah dude. I’ve been saying for years.

[Elktonnick]

Yeah dude. I’ve been saying for years.

 

Likewise, when I posted that Devers would one day be considered a hold glover I was ridiculed. If anyone watched Devers play they would have seen that the vast majority.of his errors were from hurried throws resulting from poor foot work and his not yet having adjusted to the speed of the game at the major league level.

[mvp 78]

Likewise, when I posted that Devers would one day be considered a hold glover I was ridiculed. If anyone watched Devers play they would have seen that the vast majority.of his errors were from hurried throws resulting from poor foot work and his not yet having adjusted to the speed of the game at the major league level.

 

100%

[moonslav59]

Yeah dude. I’ve been saying for years.

 

I felt he could, but was he really that good, last year?

[Elktonnick]

Dan Shaughnessy's recent email exchange with John Henry puts the whole question of Boston "resetting" in a wholly different light. Basically Henry said that competitiveness is more important than any idea of resetting.

[Bellhorn04]

Dan Shaughnessy's recent email exchange with John Henry puts the whole question of Boston "resetting" in a wholly different light. Basically Henry said that competitiveness is more important than any idea of resetting.

 

You're right, this does put things in a different light.

 

I have to give Shaughnessy credit for quoting Henry's e-mail in full, even though it made clear that Henry thinks he's full of crap LOL

[moonslav59]

I don't see us a being all that competitive for 2020. We just need too many things to go right to have any real shot at being strong contenders.

 

I think not resetting just to give the appearance we will be competitive is a bad plan. If we really wanted to be competitive in 2020, we'd have signed more than the 3 little P's.

 

Playing it halfway will hamper our chances at getting stronger in 2021 and beyond. I understand they have to sell tickets, and I realize this is just my opinion, but this halfway crap bugs me. Go for broke or go for a reset and the shortest rebuild period possible.

[jad]

Likewise, when I posted that Devers would one day be considered a hold glover I was ridiculed. If anyone watched Devers play they would have seen that the vast majority.of his errors were from hurried throws resulting from poor foot work and his not yet having adjusted to the speed of the game at the major league level.

 

When I saw him in AA, he seemed worlds apart from anyone else (similar to what you see at a AA or even AAA game and someone, say, from the bigs is down there to rehab). But, knowing nothing of him, what set him apart from others, at least to me, was his defense. I assumed that was his strength.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't see us a being all that competitive for 2020. We just need too many things to go right to have any real shot at being strong contenders.

 

I think not resetting just to give the appearance we will be competitive is a bad plan. If we really wanted to be competitive in 2020, we'd have signed more than the 3 little P's.

 

Playing it halfway will hamper our chances at getting stronger in 2021 and beyond. I understand they have to sell tickets, and I realize this is just my opinion, but this halfway crap bugs me. Go for broke or go for a reset and the shortest rebuild period possible.

 

One thing that has to be kept in mind is that selling tickets is a big part of the reason why this franchise can spend $200 million on players.

[Elktonnick]

One thing that has to be kept in mind is that selling tickets is a big part of the reason why this franchise can spend $200 million on players.

 

Equally important are the NESN ratings. In many respects the NESN ratings tend to be more affected by poor on the field performance than the gate.

[Bellhorn04]

Equally important are the NESN ratings. In many respects the NESN ratings tend to be more affected by poor on the field performance than the gate.

 

Yes, 'interested fans' would be a better way to put it.

[Elktonnick]

Yes, 'interested fans' would be a better way to put it.

 

Henry's email is damage control. I do not think the idea of selling off players to reset is playing well in Boston.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think people here having been underrating the importance of Martin Perez and how he may be the key to the season.

 

IF the Big Three can rebound to win, say, an average of 10 games apiece -- those 30 total wins in '20 (2x their 15 total wins in '19)... is a plus-15 from a year ago, which can account for Porcello's missing 14. And the Sox' record would still be plus-1. Or 85 wins.

 

Meanwhile, IF Erod regresses but still stays good -- let's say 15 wins -- now we're at minus-3. Or 82 wins.

 

So to get back to the 90-win column, which is usually Wild Card contention, all Boston would need is 8 measly wins from Martin Perez.

 

(this is assuming the same production from the up-and-down bullpen -- and though it may be optimistic to count on all three of Sale, Price and Eovaldi to bounce back... their 30 Ws can be distributed in any number of feasible combos... like if just one can re-discover the touch and win 15, another 10, another 5, etc).

 

But clearly, it's all on the Filler P's.

[moonslav59]

One thing that has to be kept in mind is that selling tickets is a big part of the reason why this franchise can spend $200 million on players.

 

I get that, and the plan is likely going to be to sell in July- assuming I'm right about us not be competitive. That way, we sell tickets.

 

We did sell off in 2021 (July) and ended up winning in 2013. I'm not sure how many fewer season tickets were sold the winter before 2013.

[moonslav59]

I think people here having been underrating the importance of Martin Perez and how he may be the key to the season.

 

IF the Big Three can rebound to win, say, an average of 10 games apiece -- those 30 total wins in '20 (2x their 15 total wins in '19)... is a plus-15 from a year ago, which can account for Porcello's missing 14. And the Sox' record would still be plus-1. Or 85 wins.

 

Meanwhile, IF Erod regresses but still stays good -- let's say 15 wins -- now we're at minus-3. Or 82 wins.

 

So to get back to the 90-win column, which is usually Wild Card contention, all Boston would need is 8 measly wins from Martin Perez.

 

(this is assuming the same production from the up-and-down bullpen -- and though it may be optimistic to count on all three of Sale, Price and Eovaldi to bounce back... their 30 Ws can be distributed in any number of feasible combos... like if just one can re-discover the touch and win 15, another 10, another 5, etc).

 

But clearly, it's all on the Filler P's.

 

LOL, If just 24 things go right, all we need is the 25th guy to do well and presto!

[Bellhorn04]

I get that, and the plan is likely going to be to sell in July- assuming I'm right about us not be competitive. That way, we sell tickets.

 

We did sell off in 2021 (July) and ended up winning in 2013. I'm not sure how many fewer season tickets were sold the winter before 2013.

 

As Elk pointed out, it's not just ticket sales that matter, it's NESN viewership.

 

And 700hitter has mentioned that the secondary market for tickets has fallen way off.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL, If just 24 things go right, all we need is the 25th guy to do well and presto!

 

If the Sox don't make any more big moves, the team will not be hugely different from the 2018 team. The big subtractions being Porcello and Kimbrel. The lineup will be the same other than Moreland & Holt.

 

It'll all come down to the health of the rotation.

[Elktonnick]

I get that, and the plan is likely going to be to sell in July- assuming I'm right about us not be competitive. That way, we sell tickets.

 

We did sell off in 2021 (July) and ended up winning in 2013. I'm not sure how many fewer season tickets were sold the winter before 2013.

 

The Red Sox drew 210,000 fewer persons in2013 from 2012. Their average game attendance was 2600 fewer fans per game in 2013 than in 2012. In fact they drew more than 3,000,000 fans in 2012. They have not drawn that many since despite winning in 2013 and 2018. While there are many factors which affect total attendance, I think the data strongly suggests that once a club alienates its fan base it can be exceedingly difficult to win back fans that are lost. I believe this is a legitimate fear that probably affects Henry and Werner's thinking.

[notin]

The spending dry spell is over. Trevor Hildenberger is on board.

 

(Actually it’s a minor league deal. So it’s a good thing.)

[moonslav59]

As Elk pointed out, it's not just ticket sales that matter, it's NESN viewership.

 

And 700hitter has mentioned that the secondary market for tickets has fallen way off.

 

I get that, too. I know why they are doing this, but it may likely damage our chances at getting back to the top more quickly.

 

Sometimes just the perception of being good can make you more money.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox don't make any more big moves, the team will not be hugely different from the 2018 team. The big subtractions being Porcello and Kimbrel. The lineup will be the same other than Moreland & Holt.

 

It'll all come down to the health of the rotation.

 

There are a lot of little things that are different from 2018, and they add up.

 

Sure, there are some "additions by subtractions," but it's more than just Porcello & Kimbrel, who are pretty major losses without adequate replacement.

 

No Sale binky-Leon. (Price did much better with Leon, too.)

No Nunez, who played more 2B in 2018 than anyone else (6th in PAs on team).

No Pearce, who hit over .900 for us after the trade and was huge in the post season.

No Moreland (8th in PAs) & Holt (9th in PAs)

No Porcello (most IP)

No Pomeranz (7th in IP)

No Kelly (8th)

No Kimbrel (9th)

No Wright (54 IP 2.68 ERA)

 

Yes, the main core is still here, but many have huge question marks on health or trends.

 

I've not given up hope, but we need so much to go right, and we did nothing to improve while many AL teams have, I just think the odds are too long to be overly hopeful.

 

It could just take 3 guys to be strong this year: Sale, Price & Eovaldi to have a good chance at making the playoffs, but we need others to step up or not have down years, too.

 

If people are buying season tickets or tuning into NESN to watch Betts play, I can understand it. If they are doing it because they honestly think we will be highly competitive, I have to say I doubt we will be.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

There are a lot of little things that are different from 2018, and they add up.

 

Sure, there are some "additions by subtractions," but it's more than just Porcello & Kimbrel, who are pretty major losses without adequate replacement.

 

No Sale binky-Leon. (Price did much better with Leon, too.)

No Nunez, who played more 2B in 2018 than anyone else (6th in PAs on team).

No Pearce, who hit over .900 for us after the trade and was huge in the post season.

No Moreland (8th in PAs) & Holt (9th in PAs)

No Porcello (most IP)

No Pomeranz (7th in IP)

No Kelly (8th)

No Kimbrel (9th)

No Wright (54 IP 2.68 ERA)

 

Yes, the main core is still here, but many have huge question marks on health or trends.

 

I've not given up hope, but we need so much to go right, and we did nothing to improve while many AL teams have, I just think the odds are too long to be overly hopeful.

 

It could just take 3 guys to be strong this year: Sale, Price & Eovaldi to have a good chance at making the playoffs, but we need others to step up or not have down years, too.

 

If people are buying season tickets or tuning into NESN to watch Betts play, I can understand it. If they are doing it because they honestly think we will be highly competitive, I have to say I doubt we will be.

 

 

You don't seem to have much faith in Bloom to plug the holes and make some nice little under the radar acquisitions to bolster our chances.

[moonslav59]

You don't seem to have much faith in Bloom to plug the holes and make some nice little under the radar acquisitions to bolster our chances.

 

I have tremendous faith in Bloom, but we have to get the budget under control, so he has some room to move, first.

 

I don't have much faith in 2020. I had had hopes this day would not arrive, so quickly, but it's here and now. I'm clinging to some slivers of hope that Sale, Price and Eovaldi will all have a good year at the same time, but the realist in me knows those odds are long. Some players took big steps up, last year, namely Devers, Vaz, Taylor, Walden & Workman. Erod solidified his standing as our most reliable and winning SP'er. Hoping Betts & JD play more like 2018 than 2019 is not a long shot. Hoping JBJ, if not traded, avoids a pro-longed slump is not a wild hope. Hoping Beni gets past his little bump in the road is not either.

 

One at a time, nothing looks too unbelievable, but hoping enough of all these things go right at the same time is a bit of a stretch, to me. That's why I am leaning firmly towards the idea that we look more towards 2021 than 2020. I don't want us to be irrelevant for 3 years in a row (2019-2021).

 

I'd keep Sale in hopes he returns to form. If he never regains his velocity, I have faith he has the determination to reinvent himself into a big plus by 2021 or 2022. Plus, we wouldn't get much back by trading him now.

 

I'd look to trade my favorite Sox player over the last decade: JBJ. We can use the salary relief to help reset. We'd need to trade Price or Eovaldi to get under, and I might just settle on the best offer we can get, even if it looks bad. Keeping both looks worse, to me. (Price, JBJ, Chavis and cash for Myers & Margot might work.) If we can't dump one, maybe trading JD would get us under. He's likely opting out anyways, and we may be able to re-sign him next winter, if we reset this year.

 

Betts is the wild card. We've discussed him enough. My worst fear is we lose him for a crummy comp pick. Everyone know I'd offer him a ton, but I'm not against trading him now or in July, so we can better our longer term outlook before trying to bring him back on a mega deal.

 

The two year players are tough calls, too. I may be fooling myself by thinking we can reset and be back near the top by 2021, and even if I'm right, keeping 2 year-controlled players may not be a great idea, but I want ERod on this club for the next 2 years. He's a winner and doesn't cost much. That's just the type of player we need. Once we reset, I'd look to extend him. Barnes & Hembree could be dealt but only for equal value with more years of control.

 

Workman is a tough call, too. He has one year left and is probably an ideal sell high candidate, right now, but I've always liked him and would like to see him extended. If we wait to July, and he's hurt or not doing well, what then?

 

I'm not happy trying to be a realist here. I'd like to be optimistic about 2020, and I do go through periods of hope, but I'm in for the long haul. I've been through lean years as a Sox fan, and I may be in the minority, right now, and I understand the need to make money in 2020, but I'm thinking we should make 2021 and beyond our higher priority. I'm not 100% sold on the idea, but I'm nearly there.

 

Bloom is the guy to get us there, but he needs time and a reset to get there.

Edited January 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I have tremendous faith in Bloom, but we have to get the budget under control, so he has some room to move, first.

 

I don't have much faith in 2020. I had had hopes this day would not arrive, so quickly, but it's here and now. I'm clinging to some slivers of hope that Sale, Price and Eovaldi will all have a good year at the same time, but the realist in me knows those odds are long. Some players took big steps up, last year, namely Devers, Vaz, Taylor, Walden & Workman. Erod solidified his standing as our most reliable and winning SP'er. Hoping Betts & JD play more like 2018 than 2019 is not a long shot. Hoping JBJ, if not traded, avoids a pro-longed slump is not a wild hope. Hoping Beni gets past his little bump in the road is not either.

 

One at a time, nothing looks too unbelievable, but hoping enough of all these things go right at the same time is a bit of a stretch, to me.

 

Well, you don't need them all to go right. Expecting that would certainly be unrealistic. You do need most of them to go right.

[moonslav59]

Well, you don't need them all to go right. Expecting that would certainly be unrealistic. You do need most of them to go right.

 

Yes, I said hoping "enough of all...go right."

 

We probably can't have Sale, Price & Eovaldi go right but Erod get hurt again or decline.

 

We probably can't have Betts & JD return to 2018 numbers, if Vaz and Devers do, too.

 

To me, we have a lot of 30-50% chances of each player having big years- maybe 40-55% chances if being optimistic.

 

Can it happen? Of course. Many feel (not me) that 2013 was such a year, while the evidence shows most players did not have career years that year, but it is an example of a year when just enough went right, including our 3rd string closer having one of the best seasons, if not the best, a closer ever could have.

 

I remember being upset that winter and summer before- thinking we were "playing it halfway" and just trying to do enough to appear competitive. I was wrong then, and I could be wrong, now.

 

I hope I am.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I remember being upset that winter and summer before- thinking we were "playing it halfway" and just trying to do enough to appear competitive. I was wrong then, and I could be wrong, now.

 

I hope I am.

 

 

You could be right and you could be wrong. That's about the size of it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I, for one, look forward to going into 2020 with the best 26 men the Sox have right now. We don't know exactly who will make the roster, but we do know Boston has good regulars at most spots on the diamond and good pitchers in the rotation. Many of them are or have been recently among the top at their positions in the entire MLB.

 

I'm not saying this because I want it to be true or because I'm sentimental... just stating the facts off recent statistical accomplishments or performance awards. Here's a list of current Red Sox players who in the past two years either led the league in a major stat or received votes of recognition from peers or professional observers: Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Bradley, Vazquez, Benintendi, Sale and Rodriguez.

 

To expect them all to continue to be stars yet again may be overly optimistic... but to expect them all to regress -- when many are just entering their primes -- is just unreasonable.

 

This group of Red Sox is as solid with as much or more potential than any other contender's core. And this year they have something to prove. Let's go!

[moonslav59]

You could be right and you could be wrong. That's about the size of it.

 

I hope I'm as wrong as I was in 2013.