A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Unless there is a substantial change in the competitive balance tax I think that teams that get involved in very expensive long term contracts (especially for pitchers) will ultimately rue the day they took them on. We are in that boat now. The Yankees got themselves into that position with Cole.

 

I hope Bloom is one of the smarter executives and Friedman of the Dodgers is also smart and looking for an equitable trade. I think it is in both teams interests to move ahead, with the Dodgers main drive being to win the WS now while the Sox main drive is to reset, get rid of Price's contract and be in a position to try and resign Betts for 2021 and beyond. I'm assuming it will take Betts along with Price to cut a deal and the Dodgers will part with a couple of very good prospects and take the majority of Price's salary.

 

Well, the thing about many suggested trades with LA include us taking back Pollock's 3 year deal and/or Kelly's remaining deal, so that would lessen the hit of Price's contract (or Eovaldi's).

 

Trades suggested with the Padres involve us taking back Myers's contract and years remaining.

[OH FOY]

Sean McAdam is 99.99% sure Mookie wants more then what Trout got, or he walks.

[notin]

Oh yeah. And I'm a big Henry fan.

 

But we can't forget that he personally stuck the knife in Ben and hired DD, knowing exactly what DD's game was.

 

He did. While Ben’s plan was likely more long term, he probably promised a better ROI as well.

 

He didn’t spend nearly as much, but he might have been in better favor had he not signed two of the three worst free agents in team history in Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo...

[notin]

Oh yeah. And I'm a big Henry fan.

 

But we can't forget that he personally stuck the knife in Ben and hired DD, knowing exactly what DD's game was.

 

I think Henry treated Dombrowski like an ex-girlfriend. He got back together with him because he had fond memories of the titles, pennants and great sex. But once they were back together for a while, the honeymoon effect wore off and the titles stopped coming, and then he remembered why they broke up in the first place...

[Bellhorn04]

Sean McAdam is 99.99% sure Mookie wants more then what Trout got

 

Seriously, how can McAdam possibly know that?

[a700hitter]

Ticket sales have to be impeded by the team's uncertain state. It's January 7 and we still have no clue if Betts, Price, Eovaldi, JBJ or possibly JDM will be on the team.

 

It's starting to feel like a bit of a fiasco.

Whatever the Plan was for the off-season, they have clearly not been able to execute it.

[Nick]

I think Henry treated Dombrowski like an ex-girlfriend. He got back together with him because he had fond memories of the titles, pennants and great sex. But once they were back together for a while, the honeymoon effect wore off and the titles stopped coming, and then he remembered why they broke up in the first place...

 

I won't be able to get THAT image out of my head today....DD and Henry having great sex.

[S5Dewey]

Whatever the Plan was for the off-season, they have clearly not been able to execute it.

 

There's a lot of gamesmanship involved in negotiations of any kind. If you know what someone is desperate for you'll hold their feet to the fire to get as much as you can from them in exchange for it.

 

IMO that's what's happening with the GM's. The Sox FO has put themselves in a bad negotiating position by making noise about resetting. Consequently the GM's of other teams aren't going to help them by offering more than they have to. It's now early January and the Sox FO is soon going to have to make a very difficult decision.

 

Here are the options as I see them:

Plan A - Give up players for pennies (or maybe quarters) on the dollar to reset in the hope that they can replace those players for 2021 which may very well put them over the LT limit again, but only for the first year this time.

 

Plan B - Continue with the roster as is, pay the tax, and try to win it all knowing that they can be sellers at the trade deadline if things aren't working out. The downside of this is that if they can't unload those players at the deadline they may be again above the LT threshold.

 

Plan C - Trade away a couple of high(er) paid but talented players (I'm looking at YOU, JBJ ++) in an attempt to get close to the threshold in the hope that they can make enough maneuvers at the deadline to get under the LT limit if necessary. The downside of this is that it's playing it halfway - giving up talent in the hope that the team can be very competitive without that talent.

 

Neither of those are very appealing but if it were my decision I'd go with Plan B. But then again, it's not my money.

[S5Dewey]

I won't be able to get THAT image out of my head today....DD and Henry having great sex.

 

Would it make you feel better if you thought they were having bad sex?

[harmony]

Whatever the Plan was for the off-season, they have clearly not been able to execute it.

Yet.

[a700hitter]

Yet.

Time is not on their side.

[Bellhorn04]

Time is not on their side.

 

Yeah, I really don't think the plan was to start making moves in mid-January.

[harmony]

Yeah, I really don't think the plan was to start making moves in mid-January.

Unless Jose Peraza and Martin Perez were high priorities (and if the pair came in below anticipated cost).

 

Did the Red Sox enter the 2017-18 offseason with a plan to wait to February 26 to sign J.D. Martinez?

[Bellhorn04]

Did the Red Sox enter the 2017-18 offseason with a plan to wait to February 26 to sign J.D. Martinez?

 

Sort of, yes.

[notin]

Whatever the Plan was for the off-season, they have clearly not been able to execute it.

 

Too much of the plan depended on being able to dump some rather deep underwater contracts. No simple task...

[notin]

Seriously, how can McAdam possibly know that?

 

That’s why he’s only 99.99% certain.

 

But we should assume someone in the Sox FO would have an idea if this was true or not due to conversations with Betts’ agent. And if it is true, does it affect Betts’ availability this month?

[Bellhorn04]

Too much of the plan depended on being able to dump some rather deep underwater contracts. No simple task...

 

There were alternatives of course. They could have told JDM if he didn't opt out they'd trade him. They could have non-tendered JBJ.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s why he’s only 99.99% certain.

 

But we should assume someone in the Sox FO would have an idea if this was true or not due to conversations with Betts’ agent. And if it is true, does it affect Betts’ availability this month?

 

I'm highly skeptical of it, that's all I can say.

[harmony]

Too much of the plan depended on being able to dump some rather deep underwater contracts. No simple task...

But a task that can still be accomplished ... to a degree.

 

The Red Sox are probably waiting for the best offer ... as are the potential trade partners.

 

It's a likely standoff on January 7.

[notin]

There were alternatives of course. They could have told JDM if he didn't opt out they'd trade him. They could have non-tendered JBJ.

 

And maybe they did tell JDM just that, but haven’t found a taker. It’s not like he was a popular target at this salary when he was a free agent.

 

They could have non-tendered JBJ. And they can still cut him in early ST...

[jacksonianmarch]

And maybe they did tell JDM just that, but haven’t found a taker. It’s not like he was a popular target at this salary when he was a free agent.

 

They could have non-tendered JBJ. And they can still cut him in early ST...

 

If he is tendered, I think there is some penalty, but it is small. Something like 10% of the salary

[a700hitter]

Unless Jose Peraza and Martin Perez were high priorities (and if the pair came in below anticipated cost).

 

Did the Red Sox enter the 2017-18 offseason with a plan to wait to February 26 to sign J.D. Martinez?

Their plan was to sign J.D. It was clear that they were pursuing him, and it was just a matter of time.

[S5Dewey]

That’s why he’s only 99.99% certain.

 

But we should assume someone in the Sox FO would have an idea if this was true or not due to conversations with Betts’ agent. And if it is true, does it affect Betts’ availability this month?

 

If this is true it definitely affects his availability this month as well as this off-season. I've wondered all along if anyone would be willing to take on his arb pay rumored to be ~$30M on a one year deal with no guarantees about 2021 other than knowing that he has set his minimum at Trout+$1.

[harmony]

The luxury-tax watch will not be "fun," according to the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/01/06/for-red-sox-fans-luxury-tax-watch-will-not-fun/wrvUSc2ceZsQMK2KJ3TrVO/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

[harmony]

Maybe they’re stymied from making a big acquisition, but my bet is they could get Cishek for less than $6 mil AAV. Also, if he’s driving the ship back to MA, you can probably get him on a 1 yr deal for $4 mil. This is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cishek isn’t amazing, but he’s a good pitcher with closing experience who will help the beleaguered back of your pen. The idea that you cannot even offer a modest contract is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cheap upgrades should always be welcome. I at least understood passing on Shaw since you’d got some 1b talent in the system with Chavis and Dalbec. You don’t have back end pen talent right now

Steve Cishek reportedly signs with the White Sox for a $6.75 million guarantee:

 

 

... although Cishek reportedly wanted to sign with the Red Sox:

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Steve Cishek reportedly signs with the White Sox for a $6.75 million guarantee:

 

 

... although Cishek reportedly wanted to sign with the Red Sox:

 

 

By the time the Red Sox cut enough payroll for new signings, there won't be anyone left to sign.

[Slasher9]

I'm highly skeptical of it, that's all I can say.

 

i think what sean did is called a "hot take"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm 99.99% certain everyone wants, but no one will get, Trout money.

 

It's an icebreaker, a starting point -- or maybe the only Godfather offer that Betts would consider to sign an extension... sort of the reverse when the Sox lowballed Lester (or Mookie's version of a hometown discount, as in "Pay up or I'll discount staying home").

 

I can see his agents telling him if he's supposedly the next best thing to Trout -- and the latter got X amount in 2019 -- then Betts should ask for the same two years later (or when the bidding opens)...

[Larry Cook]

One report says the Sox are not actively shopping Betts.

 

Another report says Sox and Dodgers talking about Betts.

 

Another report says sox want to add price to the Betts deal.

 

Mixed messages?

[moonslav59]

One report says the Sox are not actively shopping Betts.

 

Another report says Sox and Dodgers talking about Betts.

 

Another report says sox want to add price to the Betts deal.

 

Mixed messages?

 

Not the last two.

 

I guess the team might not be out looking to trade Betts (#1), but will listen to any offers made (#2 & #3).