A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

This all comes back to this team and their farm system. If they gonna be cutting payroll they better get some damn good prospects back.

 

Depends on who they deal. Won’t get them for Price and/or Eovaldi...

[notin]

but i mean...you did actually hear/read/see that JH stated he wants to get under the LT this season?

you can put your head in the sand about it if you want but that doesnt make it not true.

is it because some of us have been stating that JH would eventually do this and some of you have insisted that $ / payroll doesnt matter?

it's ok to be wrong. it's ok to be right. it's ok to not know. but it's kind of dumb to try and say that water isnt wet......

 

 

MLBTR gave reasons why the Sox will try to get under the limit, and in essence, going over for another year will end up costing the team about $100 million in various ways. Even to John Henry, $100 million is a lot of money...

[Carpin]

That is where you get into trouble. Desperation to keep a window open and selling long term assets for short term is where you get bitten. Cashman has been VERY reticent to do that. To this point, the deals he has been apart of are squarely in his favor. You have to know your farm system and deal off assets before they turn into pumpkins and keep the assets that are gonna be great

 

You are correct, but with an investment like this no one will let some prospects to stay in the way of a WS ring, Cashman has been cautious in dealing prospects, but if we get closer to the trade deadline and we have one clear weakness and dealing prospects will fix it, then you deal those prospects for the missing parts

Edited December 11, 2019 by Carpin

[Carpin]

Plus, once the Yankee top prospects graduate, the replacements may not be as good, since they will be drafting lower and have less international money to spend going forward.

 

Part of the reason their farm got so good was through trading vets for prospects. That ain't happening in this window.

 

We better take advantage of this window, because this contract will come back and bite us in the rear side.

 

Teams have been more conscious on the value of prospects and the big market teams have invested heavily in Latinamerica where a big part of the top prospects come from, that and a lot of luck will get a team on top for an extended period of time. The case of the Dodgers is a clear example of this, they been incredible in the draft and in the International market, even if they don't have a WS ring to show for it, it doesn't diminish their amazing farm system in the last few years.

[harmony]

New York Post columnist Joel Sherman addresses the Red Sox "mess":

 

https://nypost.com/2019/12/11/gerrit-cole-dominoes-are-falling-red-sox-mess-dodgers-lindor-pursuit/

[moonslav59]

Our top 10 is mostly IFA signings and right now has one guy acquired in a trade, and it wasn’t a vet for prospect deal. It was Jake Cave, who was out of options, for Luis Gil. What a f***ing steal that one was

 

I was speaking of the Yankees farm over the last few years, and yes, it was helped by those deals for prospects.

 

Okay, most of the trade guys are graduated or gone, now, but their not as highly ranked as a farm anymore either.

 

You guys have continued to do well with IFAs, but your pool money will be lower going forward. To expect your farm to stay very good as you draft low and get diminished pool money is a hope not based on the odds.

[Tedballgame]

When did this turn into the Yankee Forum? Who the f@@@ cares about them?

[Bellhorn04]

New York Post columnist Joel Sherman addresses the Red Sox "mess":

 

https://nypost.com/2019/12/11/gerrit-cole-dominoes-are-falling-red-sox-mess-dodgers-lindor-pursuit/

 

Joel and the other New York Post boys will be the first ones to lose their minds if Gerrit Cole gets off to a shaky start in the Apple.

[Bellhorn04]

When did this turn into the Yankee Forum? Who the f@@@ cares about them?

 

We have you and Slasher here to batter them, so it's all good.

[jacksonianmarch]

Joel and the other New York Post boys will be the first ones to lose their minds if Gerrit Cole gets off to a shaky start in the Apple.

 

He had a 4+ ERA after May. sub 2 ERA the rest of the way. I don't think there will be panic in the streets

[oldtimer]

I was speaking of the Yankees farm over the last few years, and yes, it was helped by those deals for prospects.

 

Okay, most of the trade guys are graduated or gone, now, but their not as highly ranked as a farm anymore either.

 

You guys have continued to do well with IFAs, but your pool money will be lower going forward. To expect your farm to stay very good as you draft low and get diminished pool money is a hope not based on the odds.

 

The Yankees made a 9 year $324 Mil contract for one player. I would say that was a huge risk for them. Will he stay healthy and for how long. I can imagine 7 years of an unproductive $36 mil weight on their team. Position players are less of a risk, but even then the long term contracts foor those players have significant risk and should be entered upon with the realization they could backfire.

[Nick]

He had a 4+ ERA after May. sub 2 ERA the rest of the way. I don't think there will be panic in the streets

 

 

Yankees now have positioned themselves to dominate next three or four years. If it wasn't for Ellsbury, they could've have signed another starter. Scary thought.

 

We're fighting for a wildcard spot.

[Bellhorn04]

He had a 4+ ERA after May. sub 2 ERA the rest of the way. I don't think there will be panic in the streets

 

There would be some angst, with scribes and message board wizards pointing out that he threw 249 innings last year and 462 innings the last 2 years-massive totals by today's standards-and suggesting it may have caught up to him.

[Slasher9]

You are correct, but with an investment like this no one will let some prospects to stay in the way of a WS ring, Cashman has been cautious in dealing prospects, but if we get closer to the trade deadline and we have one clear weakness and dealing prospects will fix it, then you deal those prospects for the missing parts

 

like last years trade deadline and your clear weakness was SP?

[Slasher9]

He had a 4+ ERA after May. sub 2 ERA the rest of the way. I don't think there will be panic in the streets

 

are you kidding me? when he gives up a bomb in his first start there will be pinstripe fans jumping from the GW....

[Tedballgame]

GERRIT COLE=ED WHITSON=KEVIN BROWN=SONNY GRAY=A.J. BURNETT=Kei Igawa=Hideki Irabu=Jaret Wright=Kenny Rogers=CARL PAVANO

[Slasher9]

does Cole have a pilots license?

[moonslav59]

Porcello to sign with Mets.

[Carpin]

like last years trade deadline and your clear weakness was SP?

 

there was no SP available which was a "game changer", everybody was asking for Torres on any trade for a front line starter; just imagine another team asking for Devers in a trade, you just slam the door on their face and stop communications

[Swiharts Ghost]

Gammons saying deal with Benny and price to White Sox in ralks

[Slasher9]

there was no SP available which was a "game changer", everybody was asking for Torres on any trade for a front line starter; just imagine another team asking for Devers in a trade, you just slam the door on their face and stop communications

 

OK. so this July you do it then? i am confused on your stance.

[Slasher9]

Gammons saying deal with Benny and price to White Sox in ralks

 

IN.

[jacksonianmarch]

OK. so this July you do it then? i am confused on your stance.

 

Yanks had a choice. Roll with what you’ve got and see if chance takes you to the promised land or sell now assets for non ace pitchers. I go with option 1, especially when you know a guy like Cole is hitting the market

[Jack Flap]

Gammons saying deal with Benny and price to White Sox in ralks

 

I'm not sure how reliable a source Gammons is these days, and I've not been able to find a link to what precisely he said...but apparently it was something about Price and Benintendi to Chicago for Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn. Many grains of salt on that one.

 

(Everyone's favorite trade simulator has that as +90.4 value for Boston and -24.1 for Chicago...lol.)

[notin]

I'm not sure how reliable a source Gammons is these days, and I've not been able to find a link to what precisely he said...but apparently it was something about Price and Benintendi to Chicago for Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn. Many grains of salt on that one.

 

(Everyone's favorite trade simulator has that as +90.4 value for Boston and -24.1 for Chicago...lol.)

 

I’d be surprised if that was the deal...

[Jack Flap]

I’d be surprised if that was the deal...

 

Yeah, I can't imagine that's legitimate.

[harmony]

I'm not sure how reliable a source Gammons is these days, and I've not been able to find a link to what precisely he said...but apparently it was something about Price and Benintendi to Chicago for Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn. Many grains of salt on that one.

 

(Everyone's favorite trade simulator has that as +90.4 value for Boston and -24.1 for Chicago...lol.)

Nick Madrigal is penciled in as the second baseman on my defending champion team in a limited keeper fantasy league.

 

Madrigal and Dustin Pedroia have parallels: short, righthanded second basemen, California birthplaces 20 miles apart and high schools separated by 35 miles, college standouts in the Pac 12 Conference, (likely) rapid advances through the minors with more walks than strikeouts.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns a surplus value of $38.4 million to Madrigal, who is the 40th-ranked prospect at MLB Prospect Watch:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/467/

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

[Tedballgame]

Gammons saying deal with Benny and price to White Sox in ralks

If there is any truth to that, and I doubt its true, they had better get value back for giving them Benintendi.

[Tedballgame]

Porcello to sign with Mets.

 

 

I wish Rick good luck with the Mets. He liked pitching in Boston and never complained or made excuses. He helped them win a championship.

[harmony]

If there is any truth to that, and I doubt its true, they had better get value back for giving them Benintendi.

According to Baseball Trade Values, David Price has a negative value of $60 million and Andrew Benintendi a surplus value of $35.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/