A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

What a joke, the usual let's-get-some-really-good-players for some-of-our-guys-who-are-not-as-good proposal (typical from a site titled FANsided).

 

Any Red Sox fan who has been following Noah Song the past few months knows he has vaulted to the top of their meager list of pitching prospects. Now if only Uncle Sam would cooperate...

 

Do you really thing calling Song “the top of a meager list” is really an endorsement?

 

I’ve been telling you - the right to pay Mookie $30 mill for one year isn’t worth what you and others think it is, especially in a trade where you have to give up players...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Baseball Trade Values shows the Red Sox as the clear winners of the proposed trade, giving away a combined $55.3 million in surplus value in return for $64.3 million in surplus value:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

The site's conclusion: "Not accepted. Oops! At least one team in this trade is not giving up as much value as they should be. Try balancing it out with either more players or cash"

 

Great, the Boston front office would like to take a poll: all Sox fans in favor of trading our best player and best pitching prospect for Mitch Haniger and Kenta Maeda, please vote with your wallets and order season tickets today.

[Bellhorn04]

Great, the Boston front office would like to take a poll: all Sox fans in favor of trading our best player and best pitching prospect for Mitch Haniger and Kenta Maeda, please vote with your wallets and order season tickets today.

 

It makes the whole equation pretty simple. Don't trade him.

 

Trade him at the deadline, if we're out of it. That's simple too.

[Bellhorn04]

In other (non) news, Chris Sale has still not that had that second visit to the doc.

 

They may have to strap him up like Hannibal Lecter to get him there.

[Nick]

In other (non) news, Chris Sale has still not that had that second visit to the doc.

 

They may have to strap him up like Hannibal Lecter to get him there.

 

Lets hope not. If I recall, Dr. Lecter cut off his cuffed hand to escape.

[moonslav59]

Those amounts are significant, no question. And they could get you a worthwhile player or two, hopefully.

 

But they're not significant to the issue of signing Mookie or not.

 

Let's say we offer $320M/10 and someone else offers $340/10. That $28M could be used to keep Betts by countering with $341M.10 (in theory).

[moonslav59]

The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M.

 

That's $78M.

 

Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years?

 

He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's say we offer $320M/10 and someone else offers $340/10. That $28M could be used to keep Betts by countering with $341M.10 (in theory).

 

I do see your point, but I just can't see them basing such a huge decision on that.

[Bellhorn04]

The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M.

 

That's $78M.

 

Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years?

 

He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.

 

The simulator doesn't take into account the risk factor of paying a guy that much for that long.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M.

 

That's $78M.

 

Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years?

 

He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.

 

What the- ? An optimistic Mookie fan on talksox? Attaboy, Moon...

[notin]

The simulator doesn't take into account the risk factor of paying a guy that much for that long.

 

Sure it does. Check out Machado’s trade value...

[Bellhorn04]

Sure it does. Check out Machado’s trade value...

 

Can you just tell me? I'm staying away from that web site, I waste enough time as it is.

[oldtimer]

The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M.

 

That's $78M.

 

Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years?

 

He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.

 

The trade simulator says he is worth +$50M, so pay him $35M for 9 to 10 Years? So you want to pay 1/6th of the 40 man roster payroll to one player and accept that commitment to a 10 year period? Not for me and that doesn't mean I don't value Mookie as a player.

[notin]

Can you just tell me? I'm staying away from that web site, I waste enough time as it is.

 

$(-94)million

 

Basically over the next 9 years, he is owed $X million and is projected to get Y fWAR at a cost of $Zmill/fWAR. So in this case $Z*Y - X = $(-94) million, which becomes his surplus trade value on that site...

[Bellhorn04]

$(-94)million

 

Basically over the next 9 years, he is owed $X million and is projected to get Y fWAR at a cost of $Zmill/fWAR. So in this case $Z*Y - X = $(-94) million, which becomes his surplus trade value on that site...

 

Well, that says a lot about what an overpay his contract is.

 

And I suspect that after Year One of Mookie's next contract there will be a negative value.

[notin]

Well, that says a lot about what an overpay his contract is.

 

And I suspect that after Year One of Mookie's next contract there will be a negative value.

 

 

Of course.

 

And Betts (or any player) on a 10 year $320 mill contract is likely to see remaining value decline with each passing year...

[moonslav59]

Sure it does. Check out Machado’s trade value...

 

It will be interesting to see what Betts's trade value is the day after he signs.

[moonslav59]

The trade simulator says he is worth +$50M, so pay him $35M for 9 to 10 Years? So you want to pay 1/6th of the 40 man roster payroll to one player and accept that commitment to a 10 year period? Not for me and that doesn't mean I don't value Mookie as a player.

 

The trade simulator says he's worth $50M, while he's getting paid about $28M.

 

I get the low risk- 1 year number, but the number represents a net plus $50M, meaning they think he's really worth about $78M in 2020.

 

That number is certainly debatable, but if he's worth anywhere near that in 2020, one has to think he'd be worth a lot in 2021, 2022 and 2023. He'd likely be worth more than $33M a year in 2024, 2025 & 2026. He might be worth near $33M in 2027 and maybe 2028. He may be worth less in 2028, 2029 and 2030.

[moonslav59]

Here are some interesting numbers from the Trade Values website:

 

120.8 Moncada

30.7 Kopech

8.8 Logan Allen

8.2 M Margot

8.1 Buttrey

7.7 M Dubon

6.0 Basabe

5.2 Shaun Anderson

4.0 Basabe

2.8 Quiroz

1.9 A Espinoza

0.5 G Bautista

0.5 Beeks

 

24.5 Casas

18.8 Dalbec

17.7 Chavis

14.0 Duran

13.7 Mata

10.6 D Hernandez

6.6 Jimenez

5.3 Song

4.6 Lugo

4.4 Ward

4.3 Groome

3.6 Decker

3.3 Houck & Cannon

2.9 Flores

2.5 Gonzalez

2.3 Diaz & Howlett

2.2 Lopez

2.1 Northcut

1.7 Chatham & Wilson

1.0 Netzer, Ockimey & Reyes

 

 

 

I kind of expected some feedback from this post, so here it is again.

 

Value wise, this site says Dalbec, Chavis and Duran would be the same trade value needed to trade for Betts ($50M).

[moonslav59]

Well, that says a lot about what an overpay his contract is.

 

And I suspect that after Year One of Mookie's next contract there will be a negative value.

 

While Bogey's deal was no where near 10 years, he still has a net plus value of $90.6.

[moonslav59]

Trade simulator values the Sox top players as such:

 

$Millions

127.2 Devers

90.6 Bogaerts

50.0 Betts

35.9 Beni

28.0 ERod

24.6 Barnes

24.5 Casas

22.9 Vazquez

18.8 Dalbec

17.7 Chavis

14.0 Duran

13.7 Mata

10.6 D Hernandez

6.6 Jimenez

6.0 JD Martinez

5.8 Taylor

5.8 Walden

5.3 Song

5.3 Workman

4.6 Lugo

4.4 Ward

4.3 Groome

3.6 Decker

3.3 Houck & Cannon

2.9 Flores

2.5 Gonzalez

2.3 Diaz & Howlett

2.2 Lopez

2.1 Northcut

2.0 JBJ

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Seam McAdam article this morning of 3 FA's the Sox might target.

1st base Jose Aguilar (Bloom Traded for him)

1st base Greg Bird-(Minor League Contract)

3rd base moved to 2nd. Jonathan Villar, maybe take a cheaper 1 year deal.

According to him they will be moving Dalbec to 1st Base, to learn it. And told Josh Ockimey if he finds another club, they will release him.

Edited November 30, 2019 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

Sox have one advantage over all the teams in Boston, they have no competition, nothing but Baseball, in the summer. Fans will always show up, its generational.

If Boston had another ML Baseball team, then it would be interesting.

Maybe the Celtics if they get to Finals, now that that the NBA schedule seems to end in July now.

 

I'm not sure I totally agree. I think that there will likely be quite a few regulars so to speak who might certainly be waiting and watching to see what ownership decides. Ticket prices are already quite costly for decent seats. Maybe it is worth it to some regardless of the product I guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I understand why low-paid youngsters with star potential are sought-after. But an established player about to enter his prime has to have more value to GMs trying to boost contending teams to the next level. Any trade is based on speculation, of what could be vs. what will be, with the goal to improve and at least get what you pay for.

 

Baseball is a business, and building a winner is costly. But proven commodities have to be more attractive to a GM whose club can afford to pay for quality. For example, to a team looking for a Gold Glove finalist catcher who can hit, a veteran like Vazquez has to have more value than a teenage power-hitter like Casas who hasn't even made it to Double A.

 

According to the list, Devers is worth 2.5 times on the trade market than Betts. Devers, 23, has had one great year. Betts is 27 and has six good to great years. Young studs like Devers, Soto, Acuna, Torres, etc. may have generational potential, but they still have half a decade to stay clean, stay in shape, and produce before matching Mookie’s output so far (and when most boy millionaires are out at late night parties, how many will be wearing hoodies, trying not to be noticed, while feeding the homeless?).

 

If you're the GM of the Red Sox and you could actually acquire two and half more Mookies, wouldn't you rather trade Rafie?

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m sure Bloom would love to keep the entirety of his offense and move on from 4/5 of his rotation, but contract cost is a bitch.

 

If the “get under the line” comment is actually a mandate, then dealing Betts is an absolute must. No point in keeping him for a costly season while you’re shedding talent from an 85 win club. Might as well get what you can and if you really want him when you can spend again, go get him on the open market.

 

The best 1b option is Aguilar. Bird hasn’t been healthy in forever. Dalbec is a wild card. Aguilar has a prior history of success and has huge power. Not sure what happened last year, but being in a good lineup and at Fenway cannot hurt

[Bellhorn04]

If you're the GM of the Red Sox and you could actually acquire two and half more Mookies, wouldn't you rather trade Rafie?

 

No. Because those trade values are based on the years of control the team has.

 

Mookie's trade value is 'only' 50 mill because he's only under control for one year.

 

Devers is under control for 4 more years.

[OH FOY]

I think we think its all about Bloom. Me I think its Henry.

He sort of said it last year, if we cant win with the High Cost were spending now, it makes no sense, to keep adding money, and not getting better.

Won one WS, yes, but the decline on last years team, with so much money into it, his philosophy might have changed.

Maybe we invest more into development.

In Baseball today if done right you should be able to do both. Contend and develop.

You spend right to the Cap, without going over, you should have a pretty good team.

Bloom has never had that much money available, all the way to the Cap.

You should never go over I feel. That's a huge Cap.

Edited November 30, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

 

 

The best 1b option is Aguilar. Bird hasn’t been healthy in forever. Dalbec is a wild card. Aguilar has a prior history of success and has huge power. Not sure what happened last year, but being in a good lineup and at Fenway cannot hurt

 

1) Matt Adams is better.

 

2) If the Brewers non-tender Travis Shaw, which is quite possible, then he moves up near the top of the list...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading prospects is always one big roll of the dice. A lot of guys' worth peaks before they ever play one game in the majors. It's like the game show: would you rather keep the cash or find out what's behind the curtain? In baseball card context, would you rather have an autographed Clemente or an unopened pack with the longshot chance of finding a Mantle rookie?

 

In hindsight, who wouldn't have swapped Swihart for Hammels? For the record, I was totally against trading our number one pitching prospect for Pomeranz, but Espinoza never got out of A ball and hasn't played in three years. I was happy to deal Hanley for Beckett and glad we got Sale for Moncada instead of Benintendi.

 

Control can be overrated, too. After signing Sandoval, Boston "controlled" the Panda for five more years (or was it the other way around?).

[notin]

Trading prospects is always one big roll of the dice. A lot of guys' worth peaks before they ever play one game in the majors. It's like the game show: would you rather keep the cash or find out what's behind the curtain? In baseball card context, would you rather have an autographed Clemente or an unopened pack with the longshot chance of finding a Mantle rookie?

 

In hindsight, who wouldn't have swapped Swihart for Hammels? For the record, I was totally against trading our number one pitching prospect for Pomeranz, but Espinoza never got out of A ball and hasn't played in three years. I was happy to deal Hanley for Beckett and glad we got Sale for Moncada instead of Benintendi.

 

Control can be overrated, too. After signing Sandoval, Boston "controlled" the Panda for five more years (or was it the other way around?).

 

I don’t think Bloom will be trading too many prospects...,