A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

If we end up having a big sell-off and get way below the tax line, once option could be to give Rusney his chance.

[notin]

Erroneous numbers again. Drives me nuts. Just for one quick example, they've got Sale's 2020 AAV at 29 mill when it should be 25.6 mill.

 

Why they don't use the far superior Cot's Contracts I don't know.

 

It’s tough enough being labeled a “stats geek,” but I see a new brand of the numbers-obsessed fans have emerged - Budget Nerds.

 

We will call you “Budgies”...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s tough enough being labeled a “stats geek,” but I see a new brand of the numbers-obsessed fans have emerged - Budget Nerds.

 

We will call you “Budgies”...

 

I'm fine with being a Budgie. It's definitely a thing now.

 

It just amazes me that Spotrac and Roster Resource are using blatantly wrong AAV numbers, and yet are being quoted. Meanwhile Cot's Contracts numbers seem consistently bang on.

[Nick]

I'm fine with being a Budgie. It's definitely a thing now.

 

It just amazes me that Spotrac and Roster Resource are using blatantly wrong AAV numbers, and yet are being quoted. Meanwhile Cot's Contracts numbers seem consistently bang on.

 

I wrote to Cot's once and he responded and thanked me.....some minor error I saw....he's solid...

[moonslav59]

I wrote to Cot's once and he responded and thanked me.....some minor error I saw....he's solid...

 

Agreed. Cots is all I ever use, being a "budgie" and all.

[Slasher9]

color me Budgie.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm fine with being a Budgie. It's definitely a thing now.

 

It just amazes me that Spotrac and Roster Resource are using blatantly wrong AAV numbers, and yet are being quoted. Meanwhile Cot's Contracts numbers seem consistently bang on.

 

I don't know a lot about salaries (and am unqualified to be a budgie), but right now I'm thinking almost no player (Trout an obvious exception) can justify a salary of more than $25M/year in terms of value to the team. The current system, which keeps salaries artificially low for the first several years, still allows exceptional players to do well. Mookie Betts has now been paid $32.5M for his first six years, and average of $5M/year. Even in his tax bracket, he should already have a pretty nice nest egg. Next year, still under the Sox control, he will likely be paid $25M or more via arbitration.

 

Meanwhile, Scott Boras now has most baseball columnists and commentators pretty much agreeing with him that almost no salary is too high for a really good player. Thus the Phillies acquisition of Bryce Harper who improved their W-L record (2018 vs. 2019) by 1 game. Meanwhile, the losing team, the Nats, won the WS without Harper. This makes no difference because "great players" are still worthy whatever they ask for (thru Boras of course).

 

Also meanwhile, the Rays salaries this year were 1/3 ($69M vs. $213M) of the Sox while the Rays finished 12 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

All of the above are why I am unqualified to be a budgie.

[Maxbialystock]

If we end up having a big sell-off and get way below the tax line, once option could be to give Rusney his chance.

 

My thought is that a real sell off is hard to pull off right now because nobody wants the really pricey guys like Price and Sale. However, Mookie is likely to leave because his salary demands in 2020--let alone his long term contract--will be out of this world. JDM is sticking around at $22M/year, which I think is OK. Ditto Bogie at $20M/year. Eovaldi at $17M/yr is a problem because he is seems very injury prone. His most IP are 199 in 2014, then 154 in 2015, then 124 in 2016, and nothing higher since then. So who would want him? I don't really care which way the Sox go on JBJ. Either way, the Sox will do way better than the Yankees did when they "stole" Ellsbury for I think 7 years and $153M.

[moonslav59]

I don't know a lot about salaries (and am unqualified to be a budgie), but right now I'm thinking almost no player (Trout an obvious exception) can justify a salary of more than $25M/year in terms of value to the team. The current system, which keeps salaries artificially low for the first several years, still allows exceptional players to do well. Mookie Betts has now been paid $32.5M for his first six years, and average of $5M/year. Even in his tax bracket, he should already have a pretty nice nest egg. Next year, still under the Sox control, he will likely be paid $25M or more via arbitration.

 

Meanwhile, Scott Boras now has most baseball columnists and commentators pretty much agreeing with him that almost no salary is too high for a really good player. Thus the Phillies acquisition of Bryce Harper who improved their W-L record (2018 vs. 2019) by 1 game. Meanwhile, the losing team, the Nats, won the WS without Harper. This makes no difference because "great players" are still worthy whatever they ask for (thru Boras of course).

 

Also meanwhile, the Rays salaries this year were 1/3 ($69M vs. $213M) of the Sox while the Rays finished 12 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

All of the above are why I am unqualified to be a budgie.

 

Betts likely makes over $50-60M for the Sox, alone. Of course he's justified to make $30M+.

[Bellhorn04]

Also meanwhile, the Rays salaries this year were 1/3 ($69M vs. $213M) of the Sox while the Rays finished 12 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

That's going to happen some years. The Rays have done a great job turning low payroll into good players.

 

But I'll still take the 4 titles to their goose egg any time...

[Slasher9]

That's going to happen some years. The Rays have done a great job turning low payroll into good players.

 

But I'll still take the 4 titles to their goose egg any time...

 

parades are a crapshoot!!!!!

[notin]

I expect a few trades. Bloom made 65 trades since joining the Rays. Dombrowski made 21 in that same timeframe.

 

In fact, I expect Bloom to make a couple trades with the Rays...

[Nick]

I expect a few trades. Bloom made 65 trades since joining the Rays. Dombrowski made 21 in that same timeframe.

 

In fact, I expect Bloom to make a couple trades with the Rays...

 

I agree....He always thinks outside of the box.

 

Rather than moving heavy objects, read Davis Price and his $93M, Bloom is more likely to trade E Rod for a two young almost major league players. That's how he builds the farm and stays away from having several monstrous contracts.

 

I'll duck because inside the box thinkers will tell me how in the hell do you trade away our only young pitcher? E Rod has only two years left folks. This is the best time to trade him.

 

Now I'm beginning to think like the second wife that has to clean up the financial ruin that the first wife left the husband in. "Honey, here's your sandwich. Nope, you can't go out with your colleagues. Only on Fridays."

Edited November 8, 2019 by Nick

[Nick]

Agreed. Cots is all I ever use, being a "budgie" and all.

 

Hey Cot has plugged in projected arbitration numbers........sweet!

 

Group huggie for budgies.

 

PS we're almost at $221M, $13M over.....

[Bellhorn04]

Hey Cot has plugged in projected arbitration numbers........sweet!

 

Group huggie for budgies.

 

PS we're almost at $221M, $13M over.....

 

Budgies unite!

[notin]

Hey Cot has plugged in projected arbitration numbers........sweet!

 

Group huggie for budgies.

 

PS we're almost at $221M, $13M over.....

 

Does that include Bradley?

[Maxbialystock]

Betts likely makes over $50-60M for the Sox, alone. Of course he's justified to make $30M+.

 

Do you mean $50-60M per year? How do you figure that? I ask because the attendance this year, when the Sox did poorly and Mookie wasn't nearly as good as last year, was slightly higher than the attendance last year when Mookie was MVP and the Sox won everything. I would argue that Sox attendance is only mildly affected by individual performance or even overall team performance. I do not know about TV ratings, however.

 

Remember Albert Pujols in his heyday with the Cardinals? He's long gone and their attendance is still 2d highest in MLB.

[notin]

Do posting fees count towards the luxury tax?

 

While I doubt the Sox get too involved in free agency, if those fees do not count, they do give teams exclusive negotiating rights that prevent bidding wars...

[Nick]

Does that include Bradley?

 

yes, along with Sandy, Hembree and others arbitration eligible

[moonslav59]

Do you mean $50-60M per year? How do you figure that? I ask because the attendance this year, when the Sox did poorly and Mookie wasn't nearly as good as last year, was slightly higher than the attendance last year when Mookie was MVP and the Sox won everything. I would argue that Sox attendance is only mildly affected by individual performance or even overall team performance. I do not know about TV ratings, however.

 

Remember Albert Pujols in his heyday with the Cardinals? He's long gone and their attendance is still 2d highest in MLB.

 

Yes, per year, easily. People come to see him and the others play. They don't come to see Henry. Many come just to see Betts. They buy his jersey. They watch NESN, because of him, or even if just to watch all 25 players, he's worth 1/25th of that revenue per year.

 

I'm estimating, but I'm pretty sure Betts brings in way more money than Hembree.

[notin]

Yes, per year, easily. People come to see him and the others play. They don't come to see Henry. Many come just to see Betts. They buy his jersey. They watch NESN, because of him, or even if just to watch all 25 players, he's worth 1/25th of that revenue per year.

 

I'm estimating, but I'm pretty sure Betts brings in way more money than Hembree.

 

The question that arises - can the Sox reset and still keep Mooikie? And who can they realisitically trade to make that happen?

 

To me, trading Price, Sale or Eovaldi is very liekly to clear only a small sum of space, because either the Sox or going to pay a big chunk or take back another loathsome contract.

 

Would they have to deal Bogaerts? Can Martinez actually be traded? Should either go?

 

If they keep the status quo, I expect the status quo, or possibly worse...

[OH FOY]

Cardinals have been one of the strongest Fan Bases for many years, not just because of Pujols. Long, long time.

[moonslav59]

The question that arises - can the Sox reset and still keep Mooikie? And who can they realisitically trade to make that happen?

 

To me, trading Price, Sale or Eovaldi is very liekly to clear only a small sum of space, because either the Sox or going to pay a big chunk or take back another loathsome contract.

 

Would they have to deal Bogaerts? Can Martinez actually be traded? Should either go?

 

If they keep the status quo, I expect the status quo, or possibly worse...

 

We only have to make budget room for 2021. We can reset in 2020 with Betts or without him. JD will opt out after 2020, but I'd trade him now.

 

We can let Leon & Hembree go. We can trade Price and Eovaldi for some relief, but from the rumors I saw, some of the players we'd get back drop off the budget after 2020 or 2021, so that would help, if we sign Betts after 2020.

 

Once we reset, my assumption is we can go over again- just not the max line (probably).

 

We lose Pedey's deal after 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The more I read about Bloom's history with Tampa, the more I suspect that his first year running the anti-Rays will be a big adjustment. I hope he gets to recruit some of the prospects with upside that were on his radar down South but not yet acquired. I have to think this was one of Bloom's draws for Boston; he's already coming in with partial plans that were earmarked for a rival, and now the Sox may improve two-fold by grabbing some depth while keeping the same players out of Florida.

 

I can also see him making a few deals that The Nation is unaccustomed to, like trading established big leaguers in or before their primes for even more depth (and salary relief). This is one of Bloom's specialities that may cause him to take some early heat that he is not use to, either. A lot of fans may seem to welcome such radical changes, but think back to the uproar just last Spring on the boards and talk shows when Swihart, the third-string catcher, was shipped off to Arizona.

 

Imagine the overall reactions of the general public if Bloom opts to swap -- say, EdRod and Vazquez -- for less-proven youngsters with only the potential to upgrade (not every fan can appreciate the Archer for Glasnow and Meadows deal like we do here... and very few transactions immediately strike gold, if ever, like that one).

[kenmeister]

 

Would they have to deal Bogaerts? Can Martinez actually be traded? Should either go?

 

 

When we jettisoned Beckett and Crawford, we had to give up Gonzalez. If we want to get rid of Sale, Price, and Eovaldi, then E-Rod, JD, Workman, Devers, and Bogaerts will have to be shopped with them. Betts may end up being the ONLY star we're left with ...

[notin]

The more I read about Bloom's history with Tampa, the more I suspect that his first year running the anti-Rays will be a big adjustment. I hope he gets to recruit some of the prospects with upside that were on his radar down South but not yet acquired. I have to think this was one of Bloom's draws for Boston; he's already coming in with partial plans that were earmarked for a rival, and now the Sox may improve two-fold by grabbing some depth while keeping the same players out of Florida.

 

I can also see him making a few deals that The Nation is unaccustomed to, like trading established big leaguers in or before their primes for even more depth (and salary relief). This is one of Bloom's specialities that may cause him to take some early heat that he is not use to, either. A lot of fans may seem to welcome such radical changes, but think back to the uproar just last Spring on the boards and talk shows when Swihart, the third-string catcher, was shipped off to Arizona.

 

Imagine the overall reactions of the general public if Bloom opts to swap -- say, EdRod and Vazquez -- for less-proven youngsters with only the potential to upgrade (not every fan can appreciate the Archer for Glasnow and Meadows deal like we do here... and very few transactions immediately strike gold, if ever, like that one).

 

While you might be right, sometimes you have to take into account the Dan Duquette Factor.

 

DD came to boston with a history of winning with a low budget and replenishing his farm by dealing off vets with 5 years for more farm pieces. When he came to Boston, having an ectual working budget drastically changed his MO.

 

Certainly we shouldn't expect Bloom to be nearly as extreme, but I do expect some differences. If he does make some deals like you say, one player on the block might be the positionless Chavis...

[harmony]

I expect a few trades. Bloom made 65 trades since joining the Rays. Dombrowski made 21 in that same timeframe.

 

In fact, I expect Bloom to make a couple trades with the Rays...

If not mistaken, Seattle was Tampa Bay’s most frequent trade partner.

[moonslav59]

If not mistaken, Seattle was Tampa Bay’s most frequent trade partner.

 

So, JBJ to the M's for....

 

(Oh, NO! Not again!)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While you might be right, sometimes you have to take into account the Dan Duquette Factor.

 

DD came to boston with a history of winning with a low budget and replenishing his farm by dealing off vets with 5 years for more farm pieces. When he came to Boston, having an ectual working budget drastically changed his MO.

 

Certainly we shouldn't expect Bloom to be nearly as extreme, but I do expect some differences. If he does make some deals like you say, one player on the block might be the positionless Chavis...

 

Good point about Chavis. I posted somewhere how shifting has made second basemen less vital these days, as it's almost a waste to stick a gifted defender like Pedroia used to be out in rightfield half the time, and leave what's left of turning two to the shifted shortstop and third basemen (while those good hot cornermen just get more valuable as roving infielders). Chavis was ok in every aspect at second -- except starting the 4-6-3 from the normal position... but that's a play contenders have to have to stay in contention.

 

Plus, I expect at least one of Chavis or Dalbec has to be dealt this winter as part of a deal to entice a team to take one of our big money starting pitchers (even if they are partially subsidized by the Sox).

[notin]

Good point about Chavis. I posted somewhere how shifting has made second basemen less vital these days, as it's almost a waste to stick a gifted defender like Pedroia used to be out in rightfield half the time, and leave what's left of turning two to the shifted shortstop and third basemen (while those good hot cornermen just get more valuable as roving infielders). Chavis was ok in every aspect at second -- except starting the 4-6-3 from the normal position... but that's a play contenders have to have to stay in contention.

 

Plus, I expect at least one of Chavis or Dalbec has to be dealt this winter as part of a deal to entice a team to take one of our big money starting pitchers (even if they are partially subsidized by the Sox).

 

I’ve frequently posted Dalbec as trade bait. But if the Sox move Devers to 1b, put Dalbec at 3b, and deal Chavis for a useful piece (pitcher? Outfielder?), that makes sense too