A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

After smashing 35 home runs this year (and 101 over three years), 31-year-old Mike Moustakas has posted 7.2 fWAR, valued at $57.9 million, over the past three seasons, trending upward from 2.0 fWAR to 2.4 fWAR to 2.8 fWAR.

 

These big sluggers haven't been getting paid much, including Moose, himself.

[kenmeister]

I look at the numbers and think this...

 

I doubt Moose gets $10M x 2. I think he gets $8M/1 or $14M/2.

 

I think Ozuna's $15M x 3 looks like the best in terms of quality vs price. (If we trade JD or Betts, maybe he might be an option. If we lose JBJ and can trade Price or Eovaldi, maybe he can be squeezed in, somehow.)

 

Sleeper pick: Lindblom

 

Most likely signings by the Sox: Strop & Calhoun

 

The Sox need a starter. If we're giving it one last go in 2020 like I hope we do by keeping Betts & JD and hoping the Sale/Price/Eovaldi trio returns to form, then rounding out the rotation with a 1 year starter makes sense (Rich Hill, Wacha, bring Porcello back on an incentive-laden deal, etc.). Ideally we win one more championship, then I see Betts riding off into the sunset for larger dollars elsewhere, JD opting out, Workman's gone, etc.

[notin]

The Sox need a starter. If we're giving it one last go in 2020 like I hope we do by keeping Betts & JD and hoping the Sale/Price/Eovaldi trio returns to form, then rounding out the rotation with a 1 year starter makes sense (Rich Hill, Wacha, bring Porcello back on an incentive-laden deal, etc.). Ideally we win one more championship, then I see Betts riding off into the sunset for larger dollars elsewhere, JD opting out, Workman's gone, etc.

 

If Moon's numbers are right or don't have another drastic change, that;s not possible if the Sox keep Betts and want to get under the tax threshhold. They would have only $1mill to spend and still need to replace a starting pitcher some arms in the bullpen and a get a player for CF. That cannot be done even with minimum wage players.

 

Someone has to be moved. And it would have to be one of Price, Eovaldi, Martinez, Sale, Bogaerts or Betts. From that set, Betts is simply the easiest piece to move...

[kenmeister]

If Moon's numbers are right or don't have another drastic change, that;s not possible if the Sox keep Betts and want to get under the tax threshhold. They would have only $1mill to spend and still need to replace a starting pitcher some arms in the bullpen and a get a player for CF. That cannot be done even with minimum wage players.

 

Someone has to be moved. And it would have to be one of Price, Eovaldi, Martinez, Sale, Bogaerts or Betts. From that set, Betts is simply the easiest piece to move...

 

I see your point. I hope ownership realizes one last championship with this core is within their grasp. Of course for that to happen, Sale needs to actually be Sale, so we'll have an idea after his checkup on the 15th.

[Nick]

I see your point. I hope ownership realizes one last championship with this core is within their grasp. Of course for that to happen, Sale needs to actually be Sale, so we'll have an idea after his checkup on the 15th.

 

Just as JD not opting out was a critical information but I also agree that Sale's checkup will be significant event. That may dictate team's viability for being competitive in 2020.

 

No way we compete with Sale and Porcello out of the starting rotation mix.

[Slasher9]

for those that have not been paying attention or have had their head in the sand.....welcome to the cliff......

[kenmeister]

for those that have not been paying attention or have had their head in the sand.....welcome to the cliff......

 

If Sale "seems" healthy, I say go for it in 2020. But if we stink, have a fire sale at the trade deadline.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see your point. I hope ownership realizes one last championship with this core is within their grasp. Of course for that to happen, Sale needs to actually be Sale, so we'll have an idea after his checkup on the 15th.

 

I don’t think ownership is as convinced as you are that they’re title level. I’m not either. Without major changes, I anticipate the Sox will be 3rd in the division at best. The health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is paramount to your success and I just don’t think there’s a good likelihood of either of them staying healthy and performing to the level you’d need them to

[kenmeister]

I don’t think ownership is as convinced as you are that they’re title level. I’m not either. Without major changes, I anticipate the Sox will be 3rd in the division at best. The health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is paramount to your success and I just don’t think there’s a good likelihood of either of them staying healthy and performing to the level you’d need them to

 

In all fairness, it's not my money so I'm not concerned with going over the luxury tax.

[Slasher9]

I I anticipate the Sox will be 3rd in the division at best.

 

what 2 teams do you have in front of them? lemme guess....the feckless yankees and paper tiger rays???

[moonslav59]

I don’t think ownership is as convinced as you are that they’re title level. I’m not either. Without major changes, I anticipate the Sox will be 3rd in the division at best. The health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is paramount to your success and I just don’t think there’s a good likelihood of either of them staying healthy and performing to the level you’d need them to

 

There may not be a high likelihood of everyone being healthy at once, but it is possible.

 

My guess is we stay just under the cap line until July (No JBJ) and decide what to do then.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Weird, is it just me or are you all seeing outside advertisements directly in other people's posts?

[moonslav59]

Weird, is it just me or are you all seeing outside advertisements directly in other people's posts?

 

I noticed it yesterday.

 

I guess the site has to make money somehow.

[jacksonianmarch]

There may not be a high likelihood of everyone being healthy at once, but it is possible.

 

My guess is we stay just under the cap line until July (No JBJ) and decide what to do then.

 

Well, that is the thing, everyone here sees 2018 and gets nostalgic. Well, in 2018 you had Kimbrel and Kelly. You had JBJ. You had a very good Porcello. You had a healthy Sale for 4 months. You had a healthy Price. You got one month of Eovaldi's ceiling during the playoffs. So much went right at the right time. Now, you're dealing with less talent in general and far more age related or injury related issues. Sale was otherworldly until August in 2018. He was pretty much unbeatable. Price was great all year with only a 2 week stint on the DL. Porcello was healthy all year. Yeah, Pom s*** the bed, but that is why you got Eovaldi and you wouldn't trade that. You got great production out of ERod. Your rotation was dominant. Your pen was led by Kimbrel and the guys upstream pitched better when they had a relief ace back there. You have lost a lot. You're gonna lose some more. And you're trying to keep up with teams that can add talent this year rather than subtract who were 20 games better than you in 2019? Your chances are small which is why Henry is choosing to cut costs. He can finish third under the LT or over. Under the LT resets the penalties for future seasons should he choose to spend more and that is more palatable

[Carpin]

I noticed it yesterday.

 

I guess the site has to make money somehow.

 

Thanks for the explanation, i just thought you were selling viagra as a side business

[notin]

Well, that is the thing, everyone here sees 2018 and gets nostalgic. Well, in 2018 you had Kimbrel and Kelly. You had JBJ. You had a very good Porcello. You had a healthy Sale for 4 months. You had a healthy Price. You got one month of Eovaldi's ceiling during the playoffs. So much went right at the right time. Now, you're dealing with less talent in general and far more age related or injury related issues. Sale was otherworldly until August in 2018. He was pretty much unbeatable. Price was great all year with only a 2 week stint on the DL. Porcello was healthy all year. Yeah, Pom s*** the bed, but that is why you got Eovaldi and you wouldn't trade that. You got great production out of ERod. Your rotation was dominant. Your pen was led by Kimbrel and the guys upstream pitched better when they had a relief ace back there. You have lost a lot. You're gonna lose some more. And you're trying to keep up with teams that can add talent this year rather than subtract who were 20 games better than you in 2019? Your chances are small which is why Henry is choosing to cut costs. He can finish third under the LT or over. Under the LT resets the penalties for future seasons should he choose to spend more and that is more palatable

 

Like the Yankees, where every player either had a career year or was injured again? You might consider dialing back your expectations, too. In a sport where every team wins between 40% and 60% of their games. these "big gaps' might not be as big as you think...

[jacksonianmarch]

Like the Yankees, where every player either had a career year or was injured again? You might consider dialing back your expectations, too. In a sport where every team wins between 40% and 60% of their games. these "big gaps' might not be as big as you think...

 

We were 19 games better than you and our team had injuries beyond any level seen before. Think about what would have happened if we were healthy?

 

Also, we have zero injuries outside of Hicks that are expected to linger into 2020. You’ve got your twin ace lefties recovering from arm procedures and both of them showing significant declines in stuff. Your number 4 guy in Eovaldi couldn’t stay healthy once again and while he comes into the year healthy, he essentially had his zipper elbow opened during the year. And you’ve got zero contingencies

[moonslav59]

We were 19 games better than you and our team had injuries beyond any level seen before. Think about what would have happened if we were healthy?

 

Also, we have zero injuries outside of Hicks that are expected to linger into 2020. You’ve got your twin ace lefties recovering from arm procedures and both of them showing significant declines in stuff. Your number 4 guy in Eovaldi couldn’t stay healthy once again and while he comes into the year healthy, he essentially had his zipper elbow opened during the year. And you’ve got zero contingencies

 

Think about what happened between 2018 and 2019.

 

Anything can happen.

[moonslav59]

Well, that is the thing, everyone here sees 2018 and gets nostalgic. Well, in 2018 you had Kimbrel and Kelly. You had JBJ. You had a very good Porcello. You had a healthy Sale for 4 months. You had a healthy Price. You got one month of Eovaldi's ceiling during the playoffs. So much went right at the right time. Now, you're dealing with less talent in general and far more age related or injury related issues. Sale was otherworldly until August in 2018. He was pretty much unbeatable. Price was great all year with only a 2 week stint on the DL. Porcello was healthy all year. Yeah, Pom s*** the bed, but that is why you got Eovaldi and you wouldn't trade that. You got great production out of ERod. Your rotation was dominant. Your pen was led by Kimbrel and the guys upstream pitched better when they had a relief ace back there. You have lost a lot. You're gonna lose some more. And you're trying to keep up with teams that can add talent this year rather than subtract who were 20 games better than you in 2019? Your chances are small which is why Henry is choosing to cut costs. He can finish third under the LT or over. Under the LT resets the penalties for future seasons should he choose to spend more and that is more palatable

 

Quite a few people had off years and were hurt. Some sucked badly even in the playoffs. Some of us were arguing Kelly shouldn't even be on the playoff roster. Don't tell me everything went right. A lot did, yes, but it can also go right again. We have almost the same exact team back, and if you look at who we lost to free agency- most will be addition by subtraction.

 

I would not bet on it. In fact, I'm leaning towards trading off some pieces to make the rebuild better and quicker, but we have a core capable of putting it all together in 2020.

[jacksonianmarch]

What happened between 18 and 19 was your team got worse then got hurt. Your competitors got better

[moonslav59]

What happened between 18 and 19 was your team got worse then got hurt. Your competitors got better

 

And that can't happen this winter (in reverse)?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Quite a few people had off years and were hurt. Some sucked badly even in the playoffs. Some of us were arguing Kelly shouldn't even be on the playoff roster. Don't tell me everything went right. A lot did, yes, but it can also go right again. We have almost the same exact team back, and if you look at who we lost to free agency- most will be addition by subtraction.

 

I would not bet on it. In fact, I'm leaning towards trading off some pieces to make the rebuild better and quicker, but we have a core capable of putting it all together in 2020.

 

Boston's 2018 postseason went right in spite of Kimbrel, not because we had him. The Sox defense saved him as much as the winds of fate: Nunez-Pearce on Torres' roller, Betts' perfect throw to nail Kemp, Beni's dive... and fly balls that barely stayed in the park by Sanchez, Bregman and McCann.

 

This past year was a miracle for the Yankees, when everybody went right. Does any fan, even Yankee fans, think they would've done better with a defense of Stanton instead of Tauchman, Andujar instead of Urshela, and Sanchez instead of Romine?

 

I don't think the average fan appreciates how special New York's 2019 was, when their replacement players won 103 games. It's a stretch to expect the exact same mix to repeat such success (see Boston, 2018-19), but it's also unlikely an entirely different crew will win as many the very next year. They may upgrade on the mound and some positions and win it all, but 103 in the regular season is hard for any powerhouse to duplicate. The Yankees have never won 103 two years in a row.

[moonslav59]

Boston's 2018 postseason went right in spite of Kimbrel, not because we had him. The Sox defense saved him as much as the winds of fate: Nunez-Pearce on Torres' roller, Betts' perfect throw to nail Kemp, Beni's dive... and fly balls that barely stayed in the park by Sanchez, Bregman and McCann.

 

This past year was a miracle for the Yankees, when everybody went right. Does any fan, even Yankee fans, think they would've done better with a defense of Stanton instead of Tauchman, Andujar instead of Urshela, and Sanchez instead of Romine?

 

I don't think the average fan appreciates how special New York's 2019 was, when their replacement players won 103 games. It's a stretch to expect the exact same mix to repeat such success (see Boston, 2018-19), but it's also unlikely an entirely different crew will win as many the very next year. They may upgrade on the mound and some positions and win it all, but 103 in the regular season is hard for any powerhouse to duplicate. The Yankees have never won 103 two years in a row.

 

I think the Yanks could repeat or even improve on 2019, but my point is about the sureness of Jacko's points. He acts like it's all pre-ordained. Every year, there are surprises- good & bad.

 

Yes, many Sox players had great years and some had career years, but not even close to everyone.

 

Kimbrel fell off a cliff at season's end. Kelly sucked for 3 months before rebounding in October. Losing K & K should not have caused such a massive drop-off.

 

Here's a look at Sox players who did worse in 2018 than 2017:

 

2017 OPS> 2018

.892>.677 Nunez

.819>.731 Devers (.916 in 2019)

.769>.758 Moreland (close to even)

.735>.540 Vazquez (.798 in 2019)

.726>.717 JBJ (close to even)

.644>.511 Leon

 

2017 ERA-> 2018

31>71 Kimbrel

61>98 Kelly

69>73 Workman (39 in 2019)

72>136 Pomeranz

74>80 Price

 

Sure, some of these numbers distort the true value as PAs or IP might be vastly different from 2017 to 2018.

 

 

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

What happened between 18 and 19 was your team got worse then got hurt. Your competitors got better

 

No man what happened is we took a year off .The ball was juiced and your Yankees failed again .Good luck in 2020 you will need it .The ball will be normal and we are winning the Division .

[moonslav59]

No man what happened is we took a year off .The ball was juiced and your Yankees failed again .Good luck in 2020 you will need it .The ball will be normal and we are winning the Division .

 

Are we sure they will change the ball back?

[kenmeister]

Are we sure they will change the ball back?

 

If they do change the ball back, I bet Porcello is effective again.

[Bellhorn04]

Are we sure they will change the ball back?

 

There was a lot of speculation it was a different ball in the postseason. In other words, it may already be changed.

[jacksonianmarch]

I thinks it pre-ordained that the Sox pitching staff will struggle. Now ours isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at the moment, but our pen is deep and pretty much entirely returning (minus Betances’ 0.2IP). I don’t say that because I think they’re horrible pitchers.

 

I say that because Sale has a shoulder issue that’s clearly chronic and sapped him of his power. This left him almost entirely destroyable against us. As a matter of fact, anytime the Sox could kick us while we were down in a series, Sale’s turn came up and he couldn’t get us out. Now he has an elbow injury that’s clearly more serious than they let on, one that was treated with PRP instead of surgery and one that hasn’t even cleared the healing process. There’s a good chance Sale needs TJS. There’s also a good chance he returns in 2020 with even further diminished velocity due to the PRP repair process. Sale also has missed the final months of the regular season two years in a row. His body type and mechanics scream injury, as many have said on her a lot, and now it’s here, the first year of a brand new contract handed out by DD.

 

Then there’s David “special elbow” Price. David’s special elbow has forced him to the IL three years in a row. His velocity has been falling as expected due to his age and now he’s got this wrist issue in his throwing arm. Price has missed considerable time two of the last three seasons and he enters this one coming off surgery and poor performance. Price has a lot of miles on his treads and his arm is finally showing the wear and tear.

 

In order to keep up with the Yanks and the deep Rays, you need the above two to find their vintage form. Their injuries of late and their sapped arsenal make that impossible. This is why I’m so certain of the outcome this year barring the Sox sneaking Gerrit Cole in under their Christmas tree.

[Bellhorn04]

Some weaknesses in the Yankees pen were exposed in the postseason. Ottavino and Green were brutal.

[moonslav59]

I thinks it pre-ordained that the Sox pitching staff will struggle. Now ours isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at the moment, but our pen is deep and pretty much entirely returning (minus Betances’ 0.2IP). I don’t say that because I think they’re horrible pitchers.

 

I say that because Sale has a shoulder issue that’s clearly chronic and sapped him of his power. This left him almost entirely destroyable against us. As a matter of fact, anytime the Sox could kick us while we were down in a series, Sale’s turn came up and he couldn’t get us out. Now he has an elbow injury that’s clearly more serious than they let on, one that was treated with PRP instead of surgery and one that hasn’t even cleared the healing process. There’s a good chance Sale needs TJS. There’s also a good chance he returns in 2020 with even further diminished velocity due to the PRP repair process. Sale also has missed the final months of the regular season two years in a row. His body type and mechanics scream injury, as many have said on her a lot, and now it’s here, the first year of a brand new contract handed out by DD.

 

Then there’s David “special elbow” Price. David’s special elbow has forced him to the IL three years in a row. His velocity has been falling as expected due to his age and now he’s got this wrist issue in his throwing arm. Price has missed considerable time two of the last three seasons and he enters this one coming off surgery and poor performance. Price has a lot of miles on his treads and his arm is finally showing the wear and tear.

 

In order to keep up with the Yanks and the deep Rays, you need the above two to find their vintage form. Their injuries of late and their sapped arsenal make that impossible. This is why I’m so certain of the outcome this year barring the Sox sneaking Gerrit Cole in under their Christmas tree.

 

Nothing is pre-ordained until you have surgery. I'm not saying the odds favor Sale and Price being healthy enough for 2020, and asking for both seems to be a long shot, but it certainly could happen.

 

When Sale came back, he showed some extended periods of greatness, even without the velocity. His K rate actually went up. Price has been babied for years, but every now and then, he gives significant and plus innings. Eovaldi is another story.

 

Nothing is all that certain in baseball. Let's see what Dr. Andrews says. Let's see how Price looks in ST'ing, if he's still here.

 

Let's see what SP'ers the Yanks acquire.