A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[kenmeister]

we have 5 SP signed. let's not prepare any others!

 

5 starting pitchers? Sale/Price/Eovaldi/Rodriguez and who am I missing? Or was that just a sarcasm allegory?

[moonslav59]

rather see him at 1b in national league parks then OF. it's a no brainer to have him take some reps there. except WTF.

 

It's not a no brainer.

 

Him getting hurt would have destroyed any chance we had. Yes, NL parks in the OF is okay.

 

Had we known Moreland AND Pearce would get hurt, then maybe, just maybe, we should have had him practice 1B.

 

If he played 1B and got hurt, it would be like JF & Wright all over again here on this site. Book it.

 

[moonslav59]

5 starting pitchers? Sale/Price/Eovaldi/Rodriguez and who am I missing? Or was that just a sarcasm allegory?

 

Why it's Brian Johnson!

 

Or, Hector Velazquez.

 

Or, DHern, Shawaryn or Houck.

 

Somebody was swearing Weber was the man after one start.

[kenmeister]

Why it's Brian Johnson!

 

Or, Hector Velazquez.

 

Or, DHern, Shawaryn or Houck.

 

Somebody was swearing Weber was the man after one start.

 

I was so gung-ho about Johnson & Velazquez prior to the season. Now, looking at the Sox roster, if the man replacing Porcello's 32 starts is to come from within, I guess they should try out Darwinzon Hernandez and Josh Taylor. But Taylor at this point is one of the rare bullpen success stories so maybe you don't mess with that? DHern is a puzzle. 16.9 strikeouts per nine innings is jaw droppingly good, and a 1.75 walks + hits per inning pitched is jaw droppingly awful.

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors columnist Steve Adams hinted that his site may project the Red Sox landing soon-to-be 40-year-old lefthander Rich Hill:

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/ch-6267.html

[Kimmi]

The equivalent horse racing odds are first determined by an expert, who establishes the Morning Line Odds. Since there are many who bet that are not particularly sophisticated, those ML odds tend to sway the betting, however, right up to the time the horses go into the gates, the odds continue to change to reflect the money being bet. Since money that comes in at the last minute might be changing the final odds even after the horses leave the gate. The track gets their takeout and want greater amounts to be bet since they make money on each dollar bet. The only play where that doesn't work is where bettors go big on what is called bridge jumping by betting an odds on favorite to come in third and are guaranteed a minimum takeout.

 

 

I assume it is the same with Vegas odds except maybe not that immediate as games take a long time.

 

I don't follow betting odds very closely, and don't follow horse racing odds at all. But what you say makes sense.

[oldtimer]

Why it's Brian Johnson!

 

Or, Hector Velazquez.

 

Or, DHern, Shawaryn or Houck.

 

Somebody was swearing Weber was the man after one start.

 

There is a substantial risk with each of Price, Sale and Eovaldi. That means to me that it is very unlikely that all three will recover into top of the line starters. Brian Johnson was more of an emergency 6th starter and H Velazquez not even that good. Porcello gave us innings but will be gone. I expect us to reset so it is highly unlikely that we will add a front line starter. DHern is being slotted for a late inning reliever or closer. Hope he can do that.

 

That leaves us with 3 possibles from the Farm to try. Shawaryn, Houck and Mata. Maybe a new pitching coach will stress getting ahead of batters instead of nibbling and one or more of these kids will become valuable. With the reset, it is hard to see alternative paths without trading away one of our best players.

[Kimmi]

Here's a look back at the World Series winners and the runner- ups and their W-L league ranking that year (not that W-Ls sets who are the best teams):

 

2019

1HOU or 3WAS

 

 

2018

1BOS

2LAD

 

2017

2HOU

1LAD

 

2016

1Cubs

2CLE

 

2015

1KCR

5NYM

 

2014

5SFG

4KCR

 

2013

1BOS

1STL

 

2012

3SFG

7DET

 

2011

4STL

2TEX

 

2010

2SFG

4TEX

 

2009

1NYY

2PHI

 

2008

2PHI

2TBR

 

2007

1BOS

2COL

 

2006

5STL

3DET

 

2005

1CWS

3HOU

 

2004

2BOS

1STL

 

32 Teams made the WS in the last 16 seasons:

 

21 were a top 2 team in their league

11 were ranked 3 or worse in their league.

 

Of the 15 teams that won the WS:

 

11 were a top 2 team that year. (12 were top 3.)

4 were ranked 3rd or worse.

 

I'm just taking the top 4 teams vs the other 6 and look at the massive tilt to the better teams.

 

21 to 11 on just making it and 11 to 4 on winning it all.

 

If we gave the top 4 all equal odds, then those 4 should have gone to the WS 40% of 32... 12.8 times NOT 21.

 

If The Astros win, that means a top 2 team has won 12 out of 16 years, when the odds show 40% of 16 at 6.4 times.

 

It's really not even close.

 

Sure, a lowly ranked team can win every now and again, but it is far from a crap shoot.

 

 

 

There is more data to consider than just how many of the World Series were won by the top 2 teams. For instance, when the top team won the WS, maybe the 2nd best team was eliminated in the LDS in 3 games.

 

I'm sticking with the data provided in the chart that I posted, which encompasses all postseason teams in all eras. There is no statistical correlation between regular season wins and postseason wins.

[Kimmi]

Build a team that can get to the playoffs. Then add a big piece to get you over the top. That's how you do it.

 

You can't afford a kick ass team every year. It gets too expensive. You have to pick your spot.

 

I'd get under the cap in 2020 and reset.

 

Build a team that can get to the playoffs. What happens once there is largely a matter of luck.

[Kimmi]

which one of their medical histories gave you confidence that another 1bman would not be needed?

also, we just saw 2018 how bad JDM was at OF defense. with needing his bat in the lineup everyday (especially in national league parks) it would have been wise to give him some reps at 1b. certainly there was plenty of time in the offseason and ST to try this out.

 

It absolutely made sense to give JD some reps at 1B. There might be some valid reason why it was not done, but it's not like we would have had him playing 1B every day. Maybe they'll consider it this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Build a team that can get to the playoffs. What happens once there is largely a matter of luck.

 

But on the Yankee thread you just said that the Yankees beat the Twins because they're the Twins, and that the Yankees over-reliance on bullpen contributed heavily to them losing to the Astros - implying that luck had little to do with either result.

[Kimmi]

But on the Yankee thread you just said that the Yankees beat the Twins because they're the Twins, and that the Yankees over-reliance on bullpen contributed heavily to them losing to the Astros - implying that luck had little to do with either result.

 

No, that's not what I'm implying at all. Luck has a lot to do with the results. There was a lot more that went into the games than just the bullpen being overexposed.

 

The Twins won 101 games this season, only 2 fewer than the Yankees. Yet, they were steamrolled by the Yankees. Randomness.

 

You are often making posts about chalking it up to "s*** happens". Are you now just tossing randomness out the window?

[Nick]

Build a team that can get to the playoffs. What happens once there is largely a matter of luck.

 

That maybe true but I like both Houston/Nationals starters over Yankees.

[moonslav59]

There is more data to consider than just how many of the World Series were won by the top 2 teams. For instance, when the top team won the WS, maybe the 2nd best team was eliminated in the LDS in 3 games.

 

I'm sticking with the data provided in the chart that I posted, which encompasses all postseason teams in all eras. There is no statistical correlation between regular season wins and postseason wins.

 

That just can't be true. Show me that data.

 

(Look, I mentioned wins are not necessarily the best way to set the true rankings of who were the best teams making the playoffs, but the numbers I presented alone, shows a very cleat correlation between season wins and postseason wins. The numbers are clear.)

[moonslav59]

Build a team that can get to the playoffs. What happens once there is largely a matter of luck.

 

Luck does play a role, and sometimes teams that played poorly most of the year get it together or make a big trade and actually get better than their record indicates, but the larger aspect of who wins is who is better.

 

The better teams have a better chance of winning a 5 or 7 game series.

[moonslav59]

We have a good chance at getting a lot younger, next year.

 

Here were our oldest players this season:

 

36 Pearce- gone

35 Pedroia- not part of our long term plans

34 Wright- gone

33 Moreland- gone

33 Price- 3 years undercontract

32 Nunez- gone

32 Cashner- gone

31 Holt- likely gone

31 JD- may opt out or be traded

31 Gorkys Hernandez- gone

31 R Brasier- probably not part of our long term plans

31 Josh Smith- gone

31 J Chacin- who knows?

30 Porcello- likely gone

30 Leon- maybe gone

 

 

[moonslav59]

2020 Forty Man Roster Look (Listed by seniority on the 40 man roster)

 

Red= May not be on 40 Man Roster next year

 

Pedroia (Can place on 60 day IL next year)

Vazquez

Bradley (May be non tendered or traded)

Workman

Bogaerts

Betts (May be traded)

Hembree (May be non tendered or traded)

Barnes

Rodriguez

Johnson (May be traded)

M Hernandez

Price

Benintendi

Sale

Velazquez (May be traded)

Travis (May be traded)

Lin

Devers

Martinez (May opt out or be traded)

Poyner (May be traded or non tendered)

Walden

Brasier

Eovaldi

Brewer

Chavis

Lakins

Taylor

DHernandez

Reyes

Leon (may be traded or non tendered)

Weber

Shawaryn

Kelley

Cashner

Centeno

JChacin

 

Rule 5

 

Christopher Acosta

Fabian Andrade

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Eduard Bazardo

Gary Calvo

Marino Campana

Pedro Castellanos

Rusney Castillo

CJ Chatham

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Bobby Dalbec

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Devon Fisher

Matthew Gorst

Kyle Hart

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Adam Lau

Nick Lovullo

Everlouis Lozada

Tate Matheny

Samuel Miranda

Oddanier Mosqueda

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Keibert Petit

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Kleiber Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Jagger Rusconi

Alberto Schmidt

Andrew Schwaab

Nick Sciortino

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Kervin Suarez

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Marcus Wilson

[notin]

Think they will protect Ockimey this year?

[moonslav59]

Think they will protect Ockimey this year?

 

Look at the 40 man roster. I see about 18 guys that will almost certainly be here next year. Maybe 5-7 more will likely be here. Maybe 3-5 of the rest wilkl still be here. That leaves about 10-12 openings.

 

I'm thinking, "Why not?" He kills RHPs, and we may need a DH and 1Bman, next year.

 

If we think he won't be selected, we may not protect him, but I don't see anyone in danger of being selected by us keeping Ockimey, instead.

[notin]

I’m not sure how many 40 man roster spots, but the ones I’d protect over Ockimey include Dalbec, Wilson, Chatham, Bazardo, Hart and De La Guerra.

 

Maybe Raudes. And just possibly and very oddly, Tate Matheny. The Sox do need outfielders...

[moonslav59]

I’m not sure how many 40 man roster spots, but the ones I’d protect over Ockimey include Dalbec, Wilson, Chatham, Bazardo, Hart and De La Guerra.

 

Maybe Raudes. And just possibly and very oddly, Tate Matheny. The Sox do need outfielders...

 

There is room for all of them, and I doubt some of these guys would be picked and need to be protected.

[oldtimer]

We have a good chance at getting a lot younger, next year.

 

Here were our oldest players this season:

 

36 Pearce- gone

35 Pedroia- not part of our long term plans

34 Wright- gone

33 Moreland- gone

33 Price- 3 years undercontract

32 Nunez- gone

32 Cashner- gone

31 Holt- likely gone

31 JD- may opt out or be traded

31 Gorkys Hernandez- gone

31 R Brasier- probably not part of our long term plans

31 Josh Smith- gone

31 J Chacin- who knows?

30 Porcello- likely gone

30 Leon- maybe gone

 

 

 

I can see us extending a low cost one year to Moreland as a backup to our rookie 1st baseman, whether it be Chavis or Dalbec. We have MHern, Chatham and Chavis for 2nd so it is less likely that we can keep that glue guy Holt. The rest are probably gone, although Leon is not costly and we will need a backup catcher. I prefer looking for a replacement, but I have to admit, there isn't a lot out there at low cost.

[oldtimer]

2020 Forty Man Roster Look (Listed by seniority on the 40 man roster)

 

Red= May not be on 40 Man Roster next year

 

Pedroia (Can place on 60 day IL next year)

Vazquez

Bradley (May be non tendered or traded)

Workman

Bogaerts

Betts (May be traded)

Hembree (May be non tendered or traded)

Barnes

Rodriguez

Johnson (May be traded)

M Hernandez

Price

Benintendi

Sale

Velazquez (May be traded)

Travis (May be traded)

Lin

Devers

Martinez (May opt out or be traded)

Poyner (May be traded or non tendered)

Walden

Brasier

Eovaldi

Brewer

Chavis

Lakins

Taylor

DHernandez

Reyes

Leon (may be traded or non tendered)

Weber

Shawaryn

Kelley

Cashner

Centeno

JChacin

 

Rule 5

 

Christopher Acosta

Fabian Andrade

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Eduard Bazardo

Gary Calvo

Marino Campana

Pedro Castellanos

Rusney Castillo

CJ Chatham

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Bobby Dalbec

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Devon Fisher

Matthew Gorst

Kyle Hart

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Adam Lau

Nick Lovullo

Everlouis Lozada

Tate Matheny

Samuel Miranda

Oddanier Mosqueda

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Keibert Petit

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Kleiber Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Jagger Rusconi

Alberto Schmidt

Andrew Schwaab

Nick Sciortino

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Kervin Suarez

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Marcus Wilson

 

A key for the team will be decided within 5 days after the end of the WS when JDM will decide whether to opt out. Many other decisions will be impacted by that one.

[Bellhorn04]

No, that's not what I'm implying at all. Luck has a lot to do with the results. There was a lot more that went into the games than just the bullpen being overexposed.

 

The Twins won 101 games this season, only 2 fewer than the Yankees. Yet, they were steamrolled by the Yankees. Randomness.

 

You are often making posts about chalking it up to "s*** happens". Are you now just tossing randomness out the window?

 

No, I agree that randomness is a big factor.

 

I just think saying it's all luck once you get to the playoffs is overstating it.

[S5Dewey]

For some the regular season is all about physical talent with others believing it's about physical talent + the human element.

For some the playoffs are a crapshoot. For others the playoffs are a combination of luck, physical talent + the human element.

 

For some, "Oversimplification is us".

[kenmeister]

MLB Trade Rumors columnist Steve Adams hinted that his site may project the Red Sox landing soon-to-be 40-year-old lefthander Rich Hill:

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/ch-6267.html

 

I was hoping for that. Should never have let him go in the first place.

[notin]

I was hoping for that. Should never have let him go in the first place.

 

Yes, Rich Hill is the perfect solution for the Sox injury-plagued rotation...

[cp176]

For some the regular season is all about physical talent with others believing it's about physical talent + the human element.

For some the playoffs are a crapshoot. For others the playoffs are a combination of luck, physical talent + the human element.

 

For some, "Oversimplification is us".

 

In some respects, it is all about the human element. You know - those folks actually playing the games that produce the stats.

[Bellhorn04]

For some the regular season is all about physical talent with others believing it's about physical talent + the human element.

For some the playoffs are a crapshoot. For others the playoffs are a combination of luck, physical talent + the human element.

 

I pretty much agree. Baseball is a complex game at the major league level. Especially now with all the analytical and game-planning stuff.

 

The "cheating" element can't be overlooked either-detecting pitch-tipping and stealing signs. That has become huge, for better or worse.

[moonslav59]

Yes, Rich Hill is the perfect solution for the Sox injury-plagued rotation...

 

I thought the same thing. This guy is always hurt. He's worse than Buchholz.