A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

They saw him when he started the year. The report from his final 3 starts in AA were far different. Fastball hitting 98 in his last start. Slider considered plus

 

So it's based on 3 starts?

 

Bryan Mata's last 3 starts as good a Schmidt's last 3 starts. And Mata is 3 years younger...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Isn't there another place on this forum where the wondefulness of the NYY's is discussed?

 

I believe it's called Yankem Talk Forum.

[harmony]

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier writes about the 2020 Red Sox starting rotation:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/09/18/onball/Mm1wOjPvNDzbjEOushD6HI/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

[moonslav59]

They saw him when he started the year. The report from his final 3 starts in AA were far different. Fastball hitting 98 in his last start. Slider considered plus

 

Man, you really have a very selective and ever-changing criteria for judging Yankee talent levels.

[Bellhorn04]

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier writes about the 2020 Red Sox starting rotation:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/09/18/onball/Mm1wOjPvNDzbjEOushD6HI/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

 

Alex is a very smart guy, but he's basically saying the same thing as me:

 

Pray, brothers and sisters, pray.

[Slasher9]

Alex is a very smart guy, but he's basically saying the same thing as me:

 

Pray, brothers and sisters, pray.

 

if 2020 is the reset year...i'd just as soon have Sale blow his elbow out today and get the surgery.

2021 we are back in business.

[S5Dewey]

if 2020 is the reset year...i'd just as soon have Sale blow his elbow out today and get the surgery.

2021 we are back in business.

 

That was my thought early-on. Not to wish any bad luck on Sale, but if that's the case get him taken care of now. He can take our "lost" season off to recuperate, then come back strong in 2021.

[sk7326]

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier writes about the 2020 Red Sox starting rotation:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/09/18/onball/Mm1wOjPvNDzbjEOushD6HI/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

 

Speier is a very smart guy. Frankly (obviously I am just a guy on the internet), I think trading Betts is like a >50% possibility, and this will be one of the goals of said trade.

[moonslav59]

That was my thought early-on. Not to wish any bad luck on Sale, but if that's the case get him taken care of now. He can take our "lost" season off to recuperate, then come back strong in 2021.

 

If they know it's coming, can they just do the surgery before it blows?

[S5Dewey]

If they know it's coming, can they just do the surgery before it blows?

 

I have no idea about that but more importantly, how's the water situation in your part of Houston?

[moonslav59]

I have no idea about that but more importantly, how's the water situation in your part of Houston?

 

My wife was almost trapped at her school. She moved her van just in time to a higher part of the parking lot, and the water almost reached the doors!

 

She just got home. It took her 95 mins instead of 45.

 

We are not flooded here on the SW side.

 

Thanks for asking.

[notin]

That was my thought early-on. Not to wish any bad luck on Sale, but if that's the case get him taken care of now. He can take our "lost" season off to recuperate, then come back strong in 2021.

 

I thought you wanted the Sox to go for it one last time in 2020.

 

If 2020 becomes a “lost” season without Sale, the Sox should move Betts ASAP and there is zero point in tendering a contract offer to Bradley...

[notin]

Man, you really have a very selective and ever-changing criteria for judging Yankee talent levels.

 

Yankee fans can never say anything bad about any Yankee prospect. Unless it’s on the tail end of praising 3 other prospects...

[S5Dewey]

I thought you wanted the Sox to go for it one last time in 2020.

 

If 2020 becomes a “lost” season without Sale, the Sox should move Betts ASAP and there is zero point in tendering a contract offer to Bradley...

 

Obviously I have no control or personal knowledge about Sale's condition. Again obviously, I do not want for them to 'go for it' if Sale isn't going to be able to contribute. It's the same with JDM (if he opts out I don't want to "go for it"), Price - same thing.

 

Saying I wanted to go for it in 2020 was, of course, contingent upon our having a team with the talent to go for it.

 

 

If Sale is healthy and JDM and Price come back and it's not a lost season then there is every reason to not move Betts and there is a point in contending a contract offer to Bradley.

Edited September 20, 2019 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Yankee fans can never say anything bad about any Yankee prospect. Unless it’s on the tail end of praising 3 other prospects...

 

I've seen quite a few Sox fans get all gah-gah over young Sox prospects or players after a couple months, a couple weeks or even a couple ABs, so I guess it's not so unbelievable for a few Yankee fans to do the same.

 

I guess what bugs me is how the criteria always changes when he's evaluating Sox players & prospects. At least harmony uses the same criteria all the time, but some times modulates the time sample to make Sox players look worse.

[S5Dewey]

I've seen quite a few Sox fans get all gah-gah over young Sox prospects or players after a couple months, a couple weeks or even a couple ABs, so I guess it's not so unbelievable for a few Yankee fans to do the same.

 

 

I have no problem if he does that on a Yankees board or even on the Yankees forum here.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem if he does that on a Yankees board or even on the Yankees forum here.

 

It does bug me, sometimes, and I can understand how it may bother others more than me, but I do find many of jacko's posts to be insightful, interesting or at least tolerable.

 

I don't really see him as a "troll" although some of his posts seem troll-like and certainly set several Sox fans off like they were trolled heavily.

[oldtimer]

I've seen quite a few Sox fans get all gah-gah over young Sox prospects or players after a couple months, a couple weeks or even a couple ABs, so I guess it's not so unbelievable for a few Yankee fans to do the same.

 

I guess what bugs me is how the criteria always changes when he's evaluating Sox players & prospects. At least harmony uses the same criteria all the time, but some times modulates the time sample to make Sox players look worse.

 

I think fans in all organizations recognize the need for refreshing the team roster each year with several low cost players moving up based upon merit. In the Sox case, we had traded away many our our best prospects while drafting low in the pecking order. Our minor leagues are rated 30th now because of those two thrusts. As fans, we still can hope that a few of our young players will develop beyond the general baseball projections for them and become viable major leaguers. Other options include trading and being smarter at it than those we deal with (pretty hard to find success there) or go into the FA market where we have exhausted our budget. I see the minors as our main hope for the next year or two.

[S5Dewey]

It does bug me, sometimes, and I can understand how it may bother others more than me, but I do find many of jacko's posts to be insightful, interesting or at least tolerable.

 

I don't really see him as a "troll" although some of his posts seem troll-like and certainly set several Sox fans off like they were trolled heavily.

 

I don't totally disagree with you. I have very few people on Ignore and all of them are obvious trolls except one. However, Jax isn't one of them. I agree that he has some good posts so I'll usually start reading what he's posted but once he starts his trolling routine it's ... and I move on. However, his trolling has become more and more prevalent now that the Yankees are being successful and (probably more important) the Sox aren't. Even his 'good' posts seem more and more like 'click bait'.

 

As someone said here recently, Yankees fans are good losers but horrible winners.

[kenmeister]

I'm still watching the Sox every 5 days for Eduardo Rodriguez. 18 wins!!! Two starts left, if he wins both, he gets to the heralded 20 wins.

[S5Dewey]

I'm still watching the Sox every 5 days for Eduardo Rodriguez. 18 wins!!! Two starts left, if he wins both, he gets to the heralded 20 wins.

 

It's nice to see ERod coming around, but in reality he's "coming around" to be a respectable #3-4 pitcher.

The good news is that he's 18-6 and averaging just a skrid under 6 innings per start.

The mediocre news is that his ERA is about 3.50 and his WHIP is 1.300.

The bad news is that he leads the league in walks.

 

If you look at his advanced metrics he's just about the same pitcher he's always been but his BB's and K's are up. That might be because he's also pitched more innings in 2019 than he ever has.

 

He's not going to be anybody's Ace but he can be a respectable #3 or 4 guy. However, in order for him to be a #3 he's going to have to have two very good pitchers ahead of him in the rotation.

 

I'm not putting him down, just being realistic. He's one of the few bright spots on this team, but being a bright spot is a fairly low bar this year.

[moonslav59]

It's nice to see ERod coming around, but in reality he's "coming around" to be a respectable #3-4 pitcher.

The good news is that he's 18-6 and averaging just a skrid under 6 innings per start.

The mediocre news is that his ERA is about 3.50 and his WHIP is 1.300.

The bad news is that he leads the league in walks.

 

If you look at his advanced metrics he's just about the same pitcher he's always been but his BB's and K's are up. That might be because he's also pitched more innings in 2019 than he ever has.

 

He's not going to be anybody's Ace but he can be a respectable #3 or 4 guy. However, in order for him to be a #3 he's going to have to have two very good pitchers ahead of him in the rotation.

 

I'm not putting him down, just being realistic. He's one of the few bright spots on this team, but being a bright spot is a fairly low bar this year.

 

In reality, looking at the state of pitching, these days, he's clearly a top 60 pitcher. In my opinion that makes him a strong #2. (30 teams- top 30 are #1's, next 30 #2's, etc...) One could argue he's a low #1.

 

2018-2019: 143 SP'ers with 150+ IP (just about 5 per team x 30 teams)

ERod ranks...

 

37th WAR 5.4 (The "washed up & injured Sale is 5th & Price 45th.)

 

ERA-

9. Sale 68

23. ERod 77

31. Price 83

 

WHIP

4. Sale 0.97

43. Price 1.21

76. ERod 1.29

 

xFIP-

1. Sale 59

39. Price 89

44. ERod 91

 

I'd say he's a solid #2, and if you look at how often he helps us win, win, win, he close to a top 30 pitcher in MLB, right now.

[jad]

It's nice to see ERod coming around, but in reality he's "coming around" to be a respectable #3-4 pitcher.

The good news is that he's 18-6 and averaging just a skrid under 6 innings per start.

The mediocre news is that his ERA is about 3.50 and his WHIP is 1.300.

The bad news is that he leads the league in walks.

 

If you look at his advanced metrics he's just about the same pitcher he's always been but his BB's and K's are up. That might be because he's also pitched more innings in 2019 than he ever has.

 

He's not going to be anybody's Ace but he can be a respectable #3 or 4 guy. However, in order for him to be a #3 he's going to have to have two very good pitchers ahead of him in the rotation.

 

I'm not putting him down, just being realistic. He's one of the few bright spots on this team, but being a bright spot is a fairly low bar this year.

 

While I agree totally on E-rod, I'm not sure those 'bright spots' are that few. E.g., Devers, Bogaerts, Vasquez, Workman, JDM, Holt, are all having good years. Mookie, ok, but not MVP-like. Benny and JBJ--disappointing, but not shockingly bad. That certainly should have gotten the job done (if, say, the nos. 1-3 starters had managed to win another dozen or so games, that is, even if they had had mediocre to disappointing years, which they did not).

[Bellhorn04]

It's nice to see ERod coming around, but in reality he's "coming around" to be a respectable #3-4 pitcher.

The good news is that he's 18-6 and averaging just a skrid under 6 innings per start.

The mediocre news is that his ERA is about 3.50 and his WHIP is 1.300.

The bad news is that he leads the league in walks.

 

If you look at his advanced metrics he's just about the same pitcher he's always been but his BB's and K's are up. That might be because he's also pitched more innings in 2019 than he ever has.

 

He's not going to be anybody's Ace but he can be a respectable #3 or 4 guy. However, in order for him to be a #3 he's going to have to have two very good pitchers ahead of him in the rotation.

 

I'm not putting him down, just being realistic. He's one of the few bright spots on this team, but being a bright spot is a fairly low bar this year.

 

I think you're shortchanging the season he's having, Dewey.

 

Old School measures - a 3.53 ERA, when you pitch half the time in Fenway, in the season of the Manfred Missile, and do it over 191 innings, is outstanding.

 

New School measures - his bWAR of 6.2 is 4th best in the league.

[moonslav59]

I think you're shortchanging the season he's having, Dewey.

 

Old School measures - a 3.53 ERA, when you pitch half the time in Fenway, in the season of the Manfred Missile, and do it over 191 innings, is outstanding.

 

New School measures - his bWAR of 6.2 is 4th best in the league.

 

23rd in ERA- reflects the park adjustments.

 

He may still nibble a bit too much. He may still walk too many guys, but he gets out of the messes he creates, and keeps his team in almost every game he pitches.

 

He's let up 5 or 6 ERs (never more) only 10 times in his last 56 starts. (Porcello's done that in just 30 games, this year.)

 

Last 7 starts: 1.00 ERA and .549 OPS against. The team is 6-1.

[notin]

I think you're shortchanging the season he's having, Dewey.

 

Old School measures - a 3.53 ERA, when you pitch half the time in Fenway, in the season of the Manfred Missile, and do it over 191 innings, is outstanding.

 

New School measures - his bWAR of 6.2 is 4th best in the league.

 

And while his peripherals are worse, the changes aren’t exactly catastrophic. His walks are up by .2BB/9IP, or 1 walk for every 45 innings. His strikeouts are down by 0.7K/9IP, or 7 strikeouts per 90IP. His WHIP is up by 0.035, or 7 baserunners per 200 IP.

 

I’ll take all of that considering he stayed healthy all year for once and finally had a season where he should finish close to 200 IP.

 

Also, he’s still only 26...

[kenmeister]

 

Last 7 starts: 1.00 ERA and .549 OPS against. The team is 6-1.

 

I was going to point that out if you hadn't. He's ending the season on fire. He's lowered his ERA all the way down from the mid 4s to the mid 3s.

 

Let's go 20 wins!!!

[OH FOY]

Gets to start the arbitration process. Made 4.3, I expect Double.

[harmony]

Eduardo Rodriguez has enjoyed a fabulous year but has a wide disparity of values by bWAR and fWAR.

 

The Boston lefthander and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales have each made 32 starts this year, Rodriguez totaling 191 innings and Gonzales 189 innings.

 

Rodriguez with 6.2 bWAR has more than doubled the 2.7 bWAR posted by Gonzales.

 

However, Rodriguez with 3.4 fWAR trails Gonzales with 3.6 fWAR.

 

One website gives Rodriguez a surplus trade value of $26.9 million and Gonzalez a surplus trade value of $39.6 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Rodriguez is one year younger than Gonzales but has only two more years of team control while Gonzales has four more years of team control.

[dgalehouse]

Gets to start the arbitration process. Made 4.3, I expect Double.

 

And that is the rub . The better guys are , the more they get paid .