A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

The uncertain futures of Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi make for a challenging offseason for the Red Sox front office. The difficulties are compounded by the loss of Rick Porcello, the lack of promising starters in the pipeline and questions about whether Eduardo Rodriguez can repeat his 2019 success.

 

This outsider will follow with great interest.

 

Nobody wants to admit this. Everyone is saying sox fans need to "hope" Sale and Price are healthy. That isn't a good business model. Heck, you had a healthy Sale and Price for the first half and you weren't making the POs with them. What makes you think they can make the POs potentially without them?

[moonslav59]

Nobody wants to admit this. Everyone is saying sox fans need to "hope" Sale and Price are healthy. That isn't a good business model. Heck, you had a healthy Sale and Price for the first half and you weren't making the POs with them. What makes you think they can make the POs potentially without them?

 

2018.

[moonslav59]

Say what you will, but we added Eovaldi to 2018 staff for current season. But it was DD's fault right? I remember everyone talked about how our staff would be one of the best in majors. Sometime it just doesn't work out. It doesn't mean it won't work out in 2020. We're still a playoff contender if JD returns and Betts remains.

 

Very true, nick.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody wants to admit this. Everyone is saying sox fans need to "hope" Sale and Price are healthy. That isn't a good business model. Heck, you had a healthy Sale and Price for the first half and you weren't making the POs with them. What makes you think they can make the POs potentially without them?

 

This post doesn't even make sense. Of course we hope Sale and Price are healthy. Should we hope they're not healthy?

[oldtimer]

Nobody wants to admit this. Everyone is saying sox fans need to "hope" Sale and Price are healthy. That isn't a good business model. Heck, you had a healthy Sale and Price for the first half and you weren't making the POs with them. What makes you think they can make the POs potentially without them?

 

That is why many of us support a reset in 2020. The advocacy is for keeping our young core, being as competitive as possible while resetting, starting the rebuild of the farm and getting out from as many underperforming contracts as possible. It has now been discussed ad nauseum and the next moves will be up to the front office. Not much to discuss until a new GM is put into place. The FO will probably not state their business plan and we will have to guess at it by the moves they make and don't make. Any speculation now is just our guesses about what is about to unfold.

[jacksonianmarch]

This post doesn't even make sense. Of course we hope Sale and Price are healthy. Should we hope they're not healthy?

 

No, that’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that a plan to contend that starts with “I hope they’re healthy next year” isn’t a viable plan to contention. They haven’t been healthy and now they’re a year older.

[Bellhorn04]

No, that’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that a plan to contend that starts with “I hope they’re healthy next year” isn’t a viable plan to contention. They haven’t been healthy and now they’re a year older.

 

You're talking about it like it's a regular business.

 

It's baseball. 'Plans to contend' are regularly based on hopes.

 

The Red Sox have very little choice but to hope Sale and Price are healthy. They've got huge money invested in them. They can't trade them. They can't replace them.

[moonslav59]

No, that’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that a plan to contend that starts with “I hope they’re healthy next year” isn’t a viable plan to contention. They haven’t been healthy and now they’re a year older.

 

Like nobody their age ever improves or comes back from injury.

 

BTW, Sale pitched about as many innings as some Yankee pitchers this year and a couple more than Sevy. Price, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m not talking about fans. I’m talking about front office. Do you think it’s a viable front office plan to hope that two injured pitchers who are at least possible to end up on the OR table be relied upon in a title charge as centerpieces? Or is it a better option to rebuild? Fans are gonna hope no matter what. Owners and GMs need a bit more than hope

[notin]

I’m not talking about fans. I’m talking about front office. Do you think it’s a viable front office plan to hope that two injured pitchers who are at least possible to end up on the OR table be relied upon in a title charge as centerpieces? Or is it a better option to rebuild? Fans are gonna hope no matter what. Owners and GMs need a bit more than hope

 

Owners/GMs/etc. also work with a lot more and better information than we have here on message boards. If they have a plan - and they probably do - it might have 0 resemblance to anything discussed on these boards. But they definitely have a better idea of the health and condition of those pitchers than we have. We're all just assuming that those pitchers will be ready to go.

 

And a rebuild plan really isn't in order. The Sox might take some steps - like dealing Betts - to get cheaper help. But they are going to have a high payroll and are going to try to stay competitive, and if they reset, will be able to spend big in 2021 (and bring back Betts if they deal him). So any trades will probably be for MLB-ready types to fill gaps.

 

Like many, you are overlooking 2 very big factors. 1) The Sox are not a bad team, just a disappointing one. There is a big difference. And 2) the difference between the top and bottom in MLB isn't that big. Best teams win bout 60% of the time. Worst teams win about 50% of the time. While fans like to look at a team and spot flaws and say "Well this team has no second baseman and no fifth starter, so they going to be a .500 team at best, that kind of assessment simply isn't realistic. There is no winning magic formula that needs to have all the boxes checked. Turning a bad team around can happen quickly if you're lucky. And the Sox aren't even a bad team...

[fxkatt]

I’m not talking about fans. I’m talking about front office. Do you think it’s a viable front office plan to hope that two injured pitchers who are at least possible to end up on the OR table be relied upon in a title charge as centerpieces? Or is it a better option to rebuild? Fans are gonna hope no matter what. Owners and GMs need a bit more than hope

 

Yeah, I get what you're saying. I think the backup plan has to focus more on Sale because I do believe Price is the more predictable of the two. They can fairly well expect that Price will give the team about 150 fairly solid innings but not beyond that. Sale is the bigger worry because of the new contract... the team has to be on top of this situation and be ready with some kind of alternative game plan, which they hope not to have to employ.

 

Whatever, I agree that "hope" is a better fit for fans, and that hope/plan is better for the front office.

[moonslav59]

I’m not talking about fans. I’m talking about front office. Do you think it’s a viable front office plan to hope that two injured pitchers who are at least possible to end up on the OR table be relied upon in a title charge as centerpieces? Or is it a better option to rebuild? Fans are gonna hope no matter what. Owners and GMs need a bit more than hope.

 

I'm sure management knows more about their injuries and the future possibilities of health and meaningful innings. If they view Sale and Price as probably pitching 300-350 IP combined, next year, then I'm sure you'd call it hope not science. If they are relatively certain of 350 IP, then their plan will reflect that fact. If their relatively certain of 200-350, they'd probably plan on getting starter depth, if they are going for a ring.

 

It's interesting to note that the IP leader from 2018-2019 is Justin Verlander- the old man.

 

One could argue, the Sox limited Sale's IP last year, even though he might have been able to pitch more, if needed, but let's go by just IP'd. 2018-2019 IP in the AL- Yanks vs Sox:

 

5. Porcello 354 (Likely not on the Sox, next year)

17. Tanaka 328

21. ERod 315

25. Sale 305 (More than Paxton)

26. Paxton 304 (Who next year, astonishingly, will be one year younger!)

28. Price 283 (15 teams in AL, so top 20 is in 2nd tier out of 5.)

35. CC 257 (Retiring)

42. German 226 (some as RP'er)

51. Severino (The iron man)

67. Eovaldi 164

85. Green 140

88. Velazquez 137

92. Johnson 134

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Convenient sampling, but it goes to show you that DEPTH is your most important tool to be a title contender. Pitchers go down all the time. That being said, where is your depth? And the bogeyman nobody wants to encounter here is the possibility that Sale misses 2020. You don't PRP an elbow nothing. You don't PRP standard, run of the mill elbow inflammation. He had a partial tear in there. And, he hasn't been able to get past 160 innings each of the past 2 years. He lost velocity this year. He lost effectiveness this year. He had a procedure with a history of working, but returning the player to a lower standard of performance. If the goal is to be a title contender, then you cannot count on Sale for anything. If the goal is to stay competitive, but step back, then Sale being counted on is reasonable. Same with Price. He is already losing to Father Time, and now he has posted 2 seasons of sub 108IP in the last 3. He finishes the year with an injury that likely will require wrist surgery on his throwing hand. He's also 34 and on the decline with a TON of miles on his arm. Counting on him again is not really smart. Then there is Eovaldi. The guy has been a house of horrors when he took the mound this year, but he hasn't done that much due to injury. That's 3/5 of your rotation. You have one guy in ERod who is good. Not an ace, but good. Then there is the open space. Hmmmm. Who do they get there. Is it Johnson? Do the sox dumpster dive and try to find someone to take the bump? Who knows. The rotation for the sox went from a lead pipe lock strength to an absolute weakness with no depth whatsoever. Counting the sox rotation as anything but a problem is sox fanboy s***.

 

I know you like to point to the Yanks and their rotation as an issue as it has been this year. But two guys return for 2020. Severino had 11WAR from 17-18. He had a lat issue that kept him out that is clearly healthy now. The Yanks didn't have to rush him back since we dominated the division. Then there is Montgomery, who didn't go the PRP route, and had the full TJS. His last full season was a solid 2.6WAR debut season before succumbing early in 2018. Add that to Paxton and Tanaka and the top 4 next year looks pretty good. Happ is who he is, but he's better than an open slot. And who the heck knows, maybe Cole is there and Happ is history. We also follow that with 3 great pitching prospects in Garcia, Schmidt and Gil, the first two will be starting in AAA next yr.

[moonslav59]

Convenient sampling, but it goes to show you that DEPTH is your most important tool to be a title contender. Pitchers go down all the time. That being said, where is your depth? And the bogeyman nobody wants to encounter here is the possibility that Sale misses 2020. You don't PRP an elbow nothing. You don't PRP standard, run of the mill elbow inflammation. He had a partial tear in there. And, he hasn't been able to get past 160 innings each of the past 2 years. He lost velocity this year. He lost effectiveness this year. He had a procedure with a history of working, but returning the player to a lower standard of performance. If the goal is to be a title contender, then you cannot count on Sale for anything. If the goal is to stay competitive, but step back, then Sale being counted on is reasonable. Same with Price. He is already losing to Father Time, and now he has posted 2 seasons of sub 108IP in the last 3. He finishes the year with an injury that likely will require wrist surgery on his throwing hand. He's also 34 and on the decline with a TON of miles on his arm. Counting on him again is not really smart. Then there is Eovaldi. The guy has been a house of horrors when he took the mound this year, but he hasn't done that much due to injury. That's 3/5 of your rotation. You have one guy in ERod who is good. Not an ace, but good. Then there is the open space. Hmmmm. Who do they get there. Is it Johnson? Do the sox dumpster dive and try to find someone to take the bump? Who knows. The rotation for the sox went from a lead pipe lock strength to an absolute weakness with no depth whatsoever. Counting the sox rotation as anything but a problem is sox fanboy s***.

 

I know you like to point to the Yanks and their rotation as an issue as it has been this year. But two guys return for 2020. Severino had 11WAR from 17-18. He had a lat issue that kept him out that is clearly healthy now. The Yanks didn't have to rush him back since we dominated the division. Then there is Montgomery, who didn't go the PRP route, and had the full TJS. His last full season was a solid 2.6WAR debut season before succumbing early in 2018. Add that to Paxton and Tanaka and the top 4 next year looks pretty good. Happ is who he is, but he's better than an open slot. And who the heck knows, maybe Cole is there and Happ is history. We also follow that with 3 great pitching prospects in Garcia, Schmidt and Gil, the first two will be starting in AAA next yr.

 

Convenient sampling?

 

I chose the 2 year sample size not three or 4 like I usually use to make it look worse for us.

 

3 "great" pitching prospects? How many are top 100? Even top 100 are often not called "great."

 

Your view on Sale's ineffectiveness is very telling. Of course there is a huge worry about his health, but the guy has pitched very well over these last 2 years, and pitched more innings than Paxton, despite the injuries.

 

Sale's11.1K/9 career rate is the best in history. His last 2 years: 13.5 and 13.1- both his career best. (Maybe velocity isn't everything.)

K/BB: career 5.37 is the best in MLB history. Last 2 years? 6.97 & 5.89- both above his career number.

Career WHIP: 1.04-- last 2 years combined: 0.97.

xFIP- in 2019: 64 (second in all of MLB to G Cole)

xFIP: 2.94 in 2019 and 2.91 career.

 

These aren't"convenient fact choices. I use these stats all the time and more than any others for all pitchers. (Okay, I used ERA- a lot, too, and his is 91 this year, which is still pretty decent but is way below his career norm of 71, but using your favorite stat, BAbip, maybe it's partially a fluke (.309 in 2019)

 

 

 

[notin]

Convenient sampling?

 

I chose the 2 year sample size not three or 4 like I usually use to make it look worse for us.

 

3 "great" pitching prospects? How many are top 100? Even top 100 are often not called "great."

 

 

They're Yankee pitching prospects, That alone makes them great. Don't you know how this game is played?

[notin]

Convenient sampling, but it goes to show you that DEPTH is your most important tool to be a title contender. Pitchers go down all the time. That being said, where is your depth? And the bogeyman nobody wants to encounter here is the possibility that Sale misses 2020. You don't PRP an elbow nothing. You don't PRP standard, run of the mill elbow inflammation. He had a partial tear in there. And, he hasn't been able to get past 160 innings each of the past 2 years. He lost velocity this year. He lost effectiveness this year. He had a procedure with a history of working, but returning the player to a lower standard of performance. If the goal is to be a title contender, then you cannot count on Sale for anything. If the goal is to stay competitive, but step back, then Sale being counted on is reasonable.

 

Actually Sale went a long way to showing he could pitch very well with his lower velocity. Unless W-L and ERA are the only measures you like...

[moonslav59]

They're Yankee pitching prospects, That alone makes them great. Don't you know how this game is played?

 

I've been trying to defend the guy, but he's making it harder.

[jacksonianmarch]

Let’s wait til the end of year rankings before you judge. Garcia will be top 100. Schmidt and Gil won’t be far behind

[moonslav59]

Let’s wait til the end of year rankings before you judge. Garcia will be top 100. Schmidt and Gil won’t be far behind

 

Okay, but even 50 or 99th are usually not called "great," apparently unless they are a Yankee.

[moonslav59]

Back to the Sox and 2020, how many here think 1B or 2B is a higher need area?

 

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham (Dalbec?)

 

If Dalbec ends up showing he can hit MLB pitching, is anybody for moving Devers to 1B so Dalbec can play a better defensive 3B, or does it make sense to trade Dalbec for a pitcher, 1Bman, 2Bman or CF'er, if we let JBJ walk?

[Slasher9]

Let’s wait til the end of year rankings before you judge. Garcia will be top 100. Schmidt and Gil won’t be far behind

 

hopefully they have strong Achilles.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe I went a little far on the “great” comment. How about very good prospects with close proximity and very good stuff?

[jacksonianmarch]

hopefully they have strong Achilles.

 

No s***, right?

[notin]

Let’s wait til the end of year rankings before you judge. Garcia will be top 100. Schmidt and Gil won’t be far behind

 

Garcia is top 100 now. But everyone except Baseball Prospectus has him outside of 60.

 

Luis Gil was less effective in the Sally League this year than Sox prospect Thad Ward. Ward is one year older, but at what point do you rectify the "Yankees have great pitching prospects and the Sox have nothing" commentary vs reality? Same league. Same hitters. Gil wasn't as good. Why is he a better prospect than Ward?

 

Clarke Schmidt is far from a "great" pitching prosect. He is 23 and did throw 19 good innings in AA, but he isn't going to jump to AAA and MLB any time soon. This great pitching prospects AA numbers were similar to the completely unranked and similar-aged Eduard Bazardo in Portland, except Bazardo did it for 32 IP. But Schmidt is "great" despite being 23 with only 19 IP above A ball.

 

I think Bryan Mata is a better prospect than either Schmidt or Gil. While his AA numbers were certainly not impressive, he is only 20.

[oldtimer]

Back to the Sox and 2020, how many here think 1B or 2B is a higher need area?

 

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham (Dalbec?)

 

If Dalbec ends up showing he can hit MLB pitching, is anybody for moving Devers to 1B so Dalbec can play a better defensive 3B, or does it make sense to trade Dalbec for a pitcher, 1Bman, 2Bman or CF'er, if we let JBJ walk?

 

Maybe it makes more sense to play Dalbec at 1st, Chavis at 2nd and bring Chatham in for one of the utility players. Chatham can handle any infield position, can probably handle an outfield postion (good arm and adequate speed) and may add some power if he can add 10 to 15 pounds. The thing is we may have another budding first baseman coming along in 2021. How we look at Dalbec and Ockimey may be impacted by that.

 

Our outfield is where we may need moore help. JBJ may go due to his cost vs value, Mookie is a keeper, but can we compete for him at what he may be offered by others. Beni is also worrisome. He is a sliightly above average defensive player. His main value is as a high on base % guy. He is in a major funk now and may be subject to some kind of depression which impacts his performance. Either he needs different coaching or he is developing into a player who will not be as good as expected. Hope not but his trajectory is downward.

[jacksonianmarch]

Using minor league stats can be quite deceiving, especially with pitchers. Arsenal is a more useful dictator of future success. The three stats that I do look at are the BB/9IP, K/9IP and HR/9IP. Gil beats Ward in two of those categories.

 

Gil 2019- 11.5K/9IP, 4.40BB/9IP, 0.09HR/9IP

Ward 2019- 11.1K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 0.42HR/9IP

 

Then there is arsenal between the two.

Gil tops out at 102mph. He sits 98-99. He also has a curve that scouts rate at 65/80 (that's very, very good) and a changeup that's more average than anything. If the change comes around, he projects at the top of a rotation. If not, he projects as a closer

Ward is a 5 pitch pitcher sitting in the low 90s, throws a cut, a curve, and a change. He is projected as a swing man per the ever optimistic soxprospects site.

 

So the comparison between the two isn't really a comparison at all. Throw in the age difference and no lost time due to injury and it isn't very close at all.

 

For most players, age is a useful qualifier, but not very useful on its own without context. Clarke Schmidt was drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft even though he was a month into his recovery from TJS. He barely pitched in 2018 because he was working his way back from the injury. His year 23 season was his first full year as a professional pitcher. So 23 or not, he is a new pro arm. And he didn't disappoint. He also finished the year in AA and showed his best stuff as a Yankee prospect to finish the year before hitting his innings cap. He's a 4 pitch mix guy who throws a fastball that now tops out at 98mph. He's got command, a wipeout slider, a decent curve and a good change. He can run his fastball as well to keep the HR rate down. Provided good health, he's an ace level prospect.

[S5Dewey]

Isn't there another place on this forum where the wondefulness of the NYY's is discussed?

[notin]

Using minor league stats can be quite deceiving, especially with pitchers. Arsenal is a more useful dictator of future success. The three stats that I do look at are the BB/9IP, K/9IP and HR/9IP. Gil beats Ward in two of those categories.

 

Gil 2019- 11.5K/9IP, 4.40BB/9IP, 0.09HR/9IP

Ward 2019- 11.1K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 0.42HR/9IP

 

Then there is arsenal between the two.

Gil tops out at 102mph. He sits 98-99. He also has a curve that scouts rate at 65/80 (that's very, very good) and a changeup that's more average than anything. If the change comes around, he projects at the top of a rotation. If not, he projects as a closer

Ward is a 5 pitch pitcher sitting in the low 90s, throws a cut, a curve, and a change. He is projected as a swing man per the ever optimistic soxprospects site.

 

So the comparison between the two isn't really a comparison at all. Throw in the age difference and no lost time due to injury and it isn't very close at all.

 

For most players, age is a useful qualifier, but not very useful on its own without context. Clarke Schmidt was drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft even though he was a month into his recovery from TJS. He barely pitched in 2018 because he was working his way back from the injury. His year 23 season was his first full year as a professional pitcher. So 23 or not, he is a new pro arm. And he didn't disappoint. He also finished the year in AA and showed his best stuff as a Yankee prospect to finish the year before hitting his innings cap. He's a 4 pitch mix guy who throws a fastball that now tops out at 98mph. He's got command, a wipeout slider, a decent curve and a good change. He can run his fastball as well to keep the HR rate down. Provided good health, he's an ace level prospect.

 

But HR/9IP is also a function of the ballpark.

 

If you look st the xFIP for both pitchers, which incorporates all the same stats and doesn't make stupid distinctions (like awarding one pitcher better on the basis of 4 more strikeouts per 90 IP), you see the two are very close. Gil had a 3.06 xFIP and Ward had a 3.48 xFIP. This difference only translates to about 42 earned runs per 900 IP, or maybe 8 ER per 180 IP season.

 

Using velocity as any sort of guide is always misleading. Radar gun readings are tempting, and you simply cannot teach someone to throw harder. But velocity isn't the tell-all for a pitcher. There is a reason Reynaldo Lopez isn't better than Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, despite throwing harder.

 

And soxprospects.com isn't as optimistic as it used to be, back in the days when it offered MLB Comparisons (and Lars Anderson failed to be the next Justin Morneau.) They've actually gotten a lot more realistic and could even be considered pessimistic sometimes. This is a site that said Ty Buttrey was a potential middle reliever and Frankie Montas might never make it past AA.

 

And if we disregard the contingency of health, I would think Jay Groome would also be an ace level prospect as well, right?

Edited September 18, 2019 by notin

[notin]

Clarke Schmidt was drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft even though he was a month into his recovery from TJS. He barely pitched in 2018 because he was working his way back from the injury. His year 23 season was his first full year as a professional pitcher. So 23 or not, he is a new pro arm. And he didn't disappoint. He also finished the year in AA and showed his best stuff as a Yankee prospect to finish the year before hitting his innings cap. He's a 4 pitch mix guy who throws a fastball that now tops out at 98mph. He's got command, a wipeout slider, a decent curve and a good change. He can run his fastball as well to keep the HR rate down. Provided good health, he's an ace level prospect.

 

2080baseball has a very different assessment of Clarke Schmidt. They certainly do like him, but not as much as whatever overly optimistic Yankee prospect site you use.

 

"Showing four pitches, Schmidt impressed in his return from Tommy John surgery in 2018. He throws his 92-94 mph fastball for strikes to work ahead, then mixes his three secondaries for whiffs and weak contact, including a future above-average change-up to neutralize lefties. His slider works well for chases to same side hitters, and an average curveball rounds out the repertoire. His arm action isn’t the prettiest, but he repeats his low-effort delivery with a sturdy lower half. While there isn’t a true plus pitch in the arsenal, the control/command of a wide repertoire could make Schmidt a backend starter."

 

Certainly being called a backend starter while in the low minors is very good. But apparently they were less impressed by the degree of wipeout on his slider. And really, he is just sort of a slight step up from Tanner Houck, who also gets the ceiling of a backend starter.

 

On the Sox p[rospects side, we haven't even gotten into Darwinzon Hernandez...

[jacksonianmarch]

2080baseball has a very different assessment of Clarke Schmidt. They certainly do like him, but not as much as whatever overly optimistic Yankee prospect site you use.

 

"Showing four pitches, Schmidt impressed in his return from Tommy John surgery in 2018. He throws his 92-94 mph fastball for strikes to work ahead, then mixes his three secondaries for whiffs and weak contact, including a future above-average change-up to neutralize lefties. His slider works well for chases to same side hitters, and an average curveball rounds out the repertoire. His arm action isn’t the prettiest, but he repeats his low-effort delivery with a sturdy lower half. While there isn’t a true plus pitch in the arsenal, the control/command of a wide repertoire could make Schmidt a backend starter."

 

Certainly being called a backend starter while in the low minors is very good. But apparently they were less impressed by the degree of wipeout on his slider. And really, he is just sort of a slight step up from Tanner Houck, who also gets the ceiling of a backend starter.

 

On the Sox p[rospects side, we haven't even gotten into Darwinzon Hernandez...

 

They saw him when he started the year. The report from his final 3 starts in AA were far different. Fastball hitting 98 in his last start. Slider considered plus