A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[oldtimer]

One more nail currently being pounded into the coffin that is the 2019 season. Our defense, as lined up by Cora, let us down and our hitting looked absolutely baffled out there. Standing pat is not the best approach. I'll be interested to see what moves the Sox make.

 

The best teams in the American league have dangerous hitters 1-9 in the lineup and decent reserves to call upon. The Astros have great starting pitching while the Yankees aren't quite as good there, but have a very strong BP. Our plan going forward, has to address how we get there and a reasonable time frame in which to bring it off.

[illinoisredsox]

He's the Buchholz of everyday players.

 

I was a big defender of Buch back in the day, but then I wasn't.

 

As just about everyone knows, Moreland bugs the s*** out of me, despite being a good defender and raking RHPs often.

 

His injury issues and platoon status was the main reason we signed Pearce instead of a RP'er.

 

We overpaid him, too. Look what Moose got, and what he did.

 

I’ll disagree somewhat on the Buchholz analogy. Yes, they both get hurt s lot. But Clay seemingly would only want to pitch when he felt 100%. There is no indication of Moreland milking an injury or only going when perfect. He often played hurt to the detriment of the club and himself (remember that broken toe from a couple years ago that he tried to play through?).

[jacksonianmarch]

Moreland is a slow healer. He gets injured, the reports say 2 weeks to a month and he will miss 2 months

[jacksonianmarch]

One more nail currently being pounded into the coffin that is the 2019 season. Our defense, as lined up by Cora, let us down and our hitting looked absolutely baffled out there. Standing pat is not the best approach. I'll be interested to see what moves the Sox make.

 

The best teams in the American league have dangerous hitters 1-9 in the lineup and decent reserves to call upon. The Astros have great starting pitching while the Yankees aren't quite as good there, but have a very strong BP. Our plan going forward, has to address how we get there and a reasonable time frame in which to bring it off.

 

With the cash already on the docket, becoming competitive will be tough. Becoming a WS competitor will almost be impossible. What is the point of spending hard and winning a WC spot and getting shellacked either in the WC game or ALDS while making your farm weaker in that pursuit? Part of the genius of the DD hire was the TIMING. The Jays and O's were the talk of the division and were clearly at their top with a steep fall ahead. Everyone could see it. Nobody thought that this was the age of the birds in the AL East. Both teams had big FAs coming up and their talent was pricing itself out. The Yanks were in the process of winning a WC berth, but everyone under the sun could see that roster was on borrowed time. JH pounced because he saw a power vacuum in the division and knew that he had the money and the farm system to turn a moribund twice cellar dwelling team and turn them into a 3 time division champion and world champ. His timing was impeccable to bring in a win now GM. Now, look at the rest of the AL. The Astros and Yanks are far and away the top talents in the AL. The Yanks are on the upswing. The Astros, with Verlander, their pickup of Greinke, Whitley coming into form and McCullers on the way back have another year of dominance in front of them before they start to take on water with big FA's needing replacement. (Greinke was essentially a Cole replacement). Springer has another year, but maybe Tucker can replace him. Beyond that, Brantley hits the market again after next year and Correa hits the market after 2021. But still, the Astros aren't falling any time soon. The Yanks aren't falling any time soon. The sox don't have the farm to trade for controllable talent. They don't have the cap space for big time talent. Henry is a smart guy. He sees the writing on the wall. He will rebuild. The timing isn't right to spend more

[moonslav59]

I’ll disagree somewhat on the Buchholz analogy. Yes, they both get hurt s lot. But Clay seemingly would only want to pitch when he felt 100%. There is no indication of Moreland milking an injury or only going when perfect. He often played hurt to the detriment of the club and himself (remember that broken toe from a couple years ago that he tried to play through?).

 

I never thought Buchholz milked injuries, so no such analogy was intended.

 

Both Buch and Moreland got hurt a lot.

 

Both Buch and Moreland were inconsistent when they were healthy.

 

That's two major similarities.

 

I still like the comp.

[moonslav59]

With the cash already on the docket, becoming competitive will be tough. Becoming a WS competitor will almost be impossible. What is the point of spending hard and winning a WC spot and getting shellacked either in the WC game or ALDS while making your farm weaker in that pursuit? Part of the genius of the DD hire was the TIMING. The Jays and O's were the talk of the division and were clearly at their top with a steep fall ahead. Everyone could see it. Nobody thought that this was the age of the birds in the AL East. Both teams had big FAs coming up and their talent was pricing itself out. The Yanks were in the process of winning a WC berth, but everyone under the sun could see that roster was on borrowed time. JH pounced because he saw a power vacuum in the division and knew that he had the money and the farm system to turn a moribund twice cellar dwelling team and turn them into a 3 time division champion and world champ. His timing was impeccable to bring in a win now GM. Now, look at the rest of the AL. The Astros and Yanks are far and away the top talents in the AL. The Yanks are on the upswing. The Astros, with Verlander, their pickup of Greinke, Whitley coming into form and McCullers on the way back have another year of dominance in front of them before they start to take on water with big FA's needing replacement. (Greinke was essentially a Cole replacement). Springer has another year, but maybe Tucker can replace him. Beyond that, Brantley hits the market again after next year and Correa hits the market after 2021. But still, the Astros aren't falling any time soon. The Yanks aren't falling any time soon. The sox don't have the farm to trade for controllable talent. They don't have the cap space for big time talent. Henry is a smart guy. He sees the writing on the wall. He will rebuild. The timing isn't right to spend more

 

It will be tough, but the wait could be shorter than you hope.

 

Reset in 2020.

 

Extend Betts for 2021.

 

Draft well in 2020 and 2021.

 

Do well with international signings.

 

Be careful with any other 2+ year big contracts.

 

We may need all of the above to go right, and that is very hard to do, but we still have a solid core of young players and an owner that is willing to spend VERY BIG to win.

 

It may take longer than 1 or 2 years, but I'm fine with a ring every 3-5 years.

[notin]

I had said that I don't think JDM will opt out but you also have to have a fall back plan if he does. With the potential $34 mil off the payroll (JDM & JBJ) we could recontruct the outfield with Castellnos and get a cheaper left handed bat for a short contract for DH unless we felt one of our youngsters could fill that void. JDM is a valuable player but the ball is still in his court. I think Castellanos currently gets $9 mil a year so your projection of approx $16 mil may be high.

 

If JD opts out, it will be after 2020 when his salary drops by about $4mill and he might be able to get a better deal.

 

As for Castellanos, he’s already more expensive than Bradley. I’d rather just bring Bradley back in that case. But if the plan is to reset, I think a much cheaper outfielder will be needed. Castellanos is 27 and is probably looking at a worst case scenario of a 4 year $60mill contract. Free agency is kinder the younger the player is. Just ask Jason Heyward...

[jacksonianmarch]

Moon, it is gonna be very long. I know you guys think the Yanks rebuilt in a trade deadline, but it took many years for that to happen. We retooled at that deadline and had a dominant farm system already. You have a dead farm system full of puke. You have to bring in the talent AND develop it. When we sold off in 2016, we already had the talent in the system and it was in the upper levels.

 

Judge- drafted in 2013, debut cup of coffee 2016

Sanchez- signed as a 16 yr old in 2009, debut in 2016

Severino- signed as a 16 yr old in 2011, debut in 2015

Montgomery- drafted in 2014, debut in 2017

Andujar- signed in 2011, cup of coffee in 2017

 

We tore down

Dealt Chapman for Warren, Torres, McKinney, Crawford

Dealt Miller for Feyereisen, Heller, Sheffield and Frazier

Dealt Beltran for Tate, Green and Swanson

Dealt Nova for Tito Polo and Stephen Tarpley

 

We also rebuilt with young talent via value type deals

Shane Green for Didi

JR Murphy for Hicks

Gallegos and Shreve for Voit

Diehl for Tachman

 

We also dealt veterans or AAA talent for IFA money

Warren, Feyereisen, McBroom, Wotherspoon, etc

 

We dealt off Gray for a draft pick and Stowers

 

We dealt Rumbelow for Then. We also dealt Cave for Gil

 

All of these moves were in conjunction with signing talent and drafting talent. DD has done literally NONE of this. Yes, the roster still has talent. But you've got bloated and long term contracts for underperforming players. You have cheaper players headed for big paydays. And you have NOTHING behind them. It took the Yankees 5 years to accumulate their home grown talent. It took more time to develop it. It took years of shrewd trades. It also took major contracts expiring. The sox are in a position that they haven't seen since the departure of Cherington. Your farm is bereft of talent. It may take 5 years just to bring in the talent needed. It will take 5 years for all the contracts to fall off the ledger (outside of Bogey). With the way the sox have done business since DD came, I expect the sox to have a LONG rebuild. And if Henry allows the process to happen, he can actually have a big winner again and open up an even bigger window. Where I think Henry has trouble is when the fans stop coming, then he opens up his wallet again. That is not wise when rebuilding until the process is almost complete

[jacksonianmarch]

And that doesn't count the trades from the farm we had to make to get good.

 

Rutherford was a 1st rounder. He and Polo from the Nova deal went to CWS for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle

We dealt 3 one time top 100 prospects for Gray in Fowler, Kaprielian, and Mateo

We dealt Sheffield and a few others for Paxton

We dealt Tate and Carroll for Britton

We dealt Solak and Widener for Drury

We dealt Drury and McKinney for Happ

 

All those guys took years of drafting and developing

[moonslav59]

Moon, it is gonna be very long. I know you guys think the Yanks rebuilt in a trade deadline, but it took many years for that to happen. We retooled at that deadline and had a dominant farm system already. You have a dead farm system full of puke. You have to bring in the talent AND develop it. When we sold off in 2016, we already had the talent in the system and it was in the upper levels.

 

Judge- drafted in 2013, debut cup of coffee 2016

Sanchez- signed as a 16 yr old in 2009, debut in 2016

Severino- signed as a 16 yr old in 2011, debut in 2015

Montgomery- drafted in 2014, debut in 2017

Andujar- signed in 2011, cup of coffee in 2017

 

We tore down

Dealt Chapman for Warren, Torres, McKinney, Crawford

Dealt Miller for Feyereisen, Heller, Sheffield and Frazier

Dealt Beltran for Tate, Green and Swanson

Dealt Nova for Tito Polo and Stephen Tarpley

 

We also rebuilt with young talent via value type deals

Shane Green for Didi

JR Murphy for Hicks

Gallegos and Shreve for Voit

Diehl for Tachman

 

We also dealt veterans or AAA talent for IFA money

Warren, Feyereisen, McBroom, Wotherspoon, etc

 

We dealt off Gray for a draft pick and Stowers

 

We dealt Rumbelow for Then. We also dealt Cave for Gil

 

All of these moves were in conjunction with signing talent and drafting talent. DD has done literally NONE of this. Yes, the roster still has talent. But you've got bloated and long term contracts for underperforming players. You have cheaper players headed for big paydays. And you have NOTHING behind them. It took the Yankees 5 years to accumulate their home grown talent. It took more time to develop it. It took years of shrewd trades. It also took major contracts expiring. The sox are in a position that they haven't seen since the departure of Cherington. Your farm is bereft of talent. It may take 5 years just to bring in the talent needed. It will take 5 years for all the contracts to fall off the ledger (outside of Bogey). With the way the sox have done business since DD came, I expect the sox to have a LONG rebuild. And if Henry allows the process to happen, he can actually have a big winner again and open up an even bigger window. Where I think Henry has trouble is when the fans stop coming, then he opens up his wallet again. That is not wise when rebuilding until the process is almost complete

 

1) You guys haven't won crap, yet, so it's kind of comical you use your team as an example on how to rebuild. Like it's the only way to rebuild!

 

2) You want to believe Sale is toast, Price is done and Eovaldi will never be healthy. You may end up being right, but they are better than your top 3 going into next year, and I'm not even counting ERod in the mix.

 

3) We have a solid young core, still, and if we keep Betts, we'd have him, Devers, Bogey, Beni and Vaz.

 

4) We have something your owner doesn't have, the willingness to spend to win.

 

5) We have a much better manager than your team.

 

Yes, we have current budget issues and a low ranked farm. When I mentioned drafting well and signing international FAs well in the next two years, I didn't mean it as something that was going to help us in 2021 or 2022. I doubt even 2023, but building it back up might help us win in 5 years- hence my liking to win every 3-5 years.

 

If we reset in 2020 and spend near or over the max line in 2021, it is certainly not "almost impossible" to imagine a team that could be a top contender.

 

I didn't say we would be. I didn't say it would be easy. I actually said almost every move we make going forward will have to work for us to be back on top by 2021, but that is far from impossible.

 

More likely, we may be able to be back on top after Pedey's deal runs out and we're looking at the final years of Price, JD, Vaz, Eovaldi and JD (if he doesn't opt out by then).

 

If we can't win in 2021 or 2022, we'll have a boatload of money to spend in 2023, and hopefully some infusion from the farm that we had improved from 2020-2021.

 

[moonslav59]

And that doesn't count the trades from the farm we had to make to get good.

 

Rutherford was a 1st rounder. He and Polo from the Nova deal went to CWS for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle

We dealt 3 one time top 100 prospects for Gray in Fowler, Kaprielian, and Mateo

We dealt Sheffield and a few others for Paxton

We dealt Tate and Carroll for Britton

We dealt Solak and Widener for Drury

We dealt Drury and McKinney for Happ

 

All those guys took years of drafting and developing

 

Tearing down is not the only way to get back to the top.

 

We won on 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018 without any total tear downs.

 

Yes, we had the Dodger dump.

 

Yes, we had the rotation sell off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy & Doubront.

 

Yes, we had some decent farm systems here and there, and I know it's harder to rebuild the farm, these days, when you keep winning and spending like we have, but if Henry is willing to spend near or over the max line from time to time, or most of the time, we can get back to the top quicker than teams unwilling to do so.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You’d take now Sale, now Price and now Eovaldi over anyone in our rotation for 2020? That’s a homer statement and you know it. Sale and Price might not even be available for 2020. Eovaldi cannot stay healthy.

 

Yes, you’ve got a young core on the offensive side. That’s going to get expensive. Outside of Bogey, they aren’t cost controlled. And you’re already up against it.

 

I know the Yanks haven’t won a title, but they rebuilt from a decade of doing what DD did. Spend and spend and spend and trade off everything in the minors that has a pulse. And we got back to the ALCS with a young core and are currently crushing your squad with our backups! We may not win a title. But it doesn’t mean our march to 100+ wins for the second year in a row and the absolute humiliation of your squad at our hands this year isn’t meaningful.

 

And saying the Steinbrenner’s don’t spend is dumb. They’re just not spending like a drunken sailor anymore. It sustains title contention or so they say

[notin]

You’d take now Sale, now Price and now Eovaldi over anyone in our rotation for 2020? That’s a homer statement and you know it. Sale and Price might not even be available for 2020. Eovaldi cannot stay healthy.

 

Yes, you’ve got a young core on the offensive side. That’s going to get expensive. Outside of Bogey, they aren’t cost controlled. And you’re already up against it.

 

I know the Yanks haven’t won a title, but they rebuilt from a decade of doing what DD did. Spend and spend and spend and trade off everything in the minors that has a pulse. And we got back to the ALCS with a young core and are currently crushing your squad with our backups! We may not win a title. But it doesn’t mean our march to 100+ wins for the second year in a row and the absolute humiliation of your squad at our hands this year isn’t meaningful.

 

And saying the Steinbrenner’s don’t spend is dumb. They’re just not spending like a drunken sailor anymore. It sustains title contention or so they say

 

I have to agree with you, but only because I think of you as an expert on homer statements

[moonslav59]

You’d take now Sale, now Price and now Eovaldi over anyone in our rotation for 2020? That’s a homer statement and you know it. Sale and Price might not even be available for 2020. Eovaldi cannot stay healthy.

 

Yes, you’ve got a young core on the offensive side. That’s going to get expensive. Outside of Bogey, they aren’t cost controlled. And you’re already up against it.

 

I know the Yanks haven’t won a title, but they rebuilt from a decade of doing what DD did. Spend and spend and spend and trade off everything in the minors that has a pulse. And we got back to the ALCS with a young core and are currently crushing your squad with our backups! We may not win a title. But it doesn’t mean our march to 100+ wins for the second year in a row and the absolute humiliation of your squad at our hands this year isn’t meaningful.

 

And saying the Steinbrenner’s don’t spend is dumb. They’re just not spending like a drunken sailor anymore. It sustains title contention or so they say

 

You'd take Tanaka (4.42), Happ (5.34) and Paxton (4.16)?

 

And, I'm the "homer?"

 

I did not say I'd take any one of our SP'ers over yours, I said those 3 vs your 3. (Add ERod and Severino and I'll take our 4 over your 4.)

 

Stick to gloating over your pen, where your top 3 are all over 31.

 

Look, you guys have a better farm. You have a better 25, this year. You have a better team, on paper, than us next year.

 

I'm not talking about 2020, except for our rotation over yours.

 

Let's see how your vaunted rebuild works out. My guess is, after you lose to the Astros, you'll be roasting Cashman for not getting SP'er help at the deadline.

 

There are times when strategic spending, even known to be overpays, are needed to get you over the top.

 

The "drunken" Price & JD signings won us a ring.

 

Maybe the "drunken" Sale, Bogey and pending Betts signing maybe will in 2021 or 2022.

 

If not, maybe we retool for 2023 or 2024.

 

Spending big helps.

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

It's funny how Sale's injury means he's toast, but Severino is expected to be great next year.

 

Sale still had one of the best xFIPs in MLB, this year. If he didn't have such horrible run support, we'd not be so down on him. He still has almost the same IP'd this year as "inning eater" Porcello.

 

Yes, Price and Eovaldi are huge question marks, but both are not so old that they can't still have some great years in them.

 

ERod is stepping up and could get even better.

 

No doubt, 3 of our starters had down years, but there's no reason to think all 3 will repeat the 2019 season in 2020.

 

Happ will turn 38 next fall. His ERA+ has gone 134>127>116>83.

Paxton turns 32 next November (140>108>107) and has yet to pitch over 161 IP.

Tanaka turns 32 next November (140>95>112>100) and hasn't been over 179 IP since '16.

Severino will likely be a beats, if he can get healthy.

 

Sox:

Sale will turn 31 early next year and has missed time for 2 straight years, but his numbers are still better than the first 3 on list above (121>157>209>110). He's got just about the best K/9 and K/BB in MLB history.

Price will turn 35 next year, and doesn't look like Justin Verlander. I get that. He did come up with some money games less than a year ago. His ERA+ has been better than the 3 on the Yankee list: 164>112>135>123>113. His K rate has been better than his career 8.8 all 4 years in Boston. (Career high, this year, at 10.7)

Eovaldi is a stretch, I admit. His first full season, like Paxton, will be his first. (112>84), Career K/9 is 6.9. 2019: 9.1. It's all about health.

ERod has become the horse we hoped he'd be. He turns 27 next year- peak prime. (95>109>116>127: constant improvement) He's on pace for 190+ IP.

 

I know I'm a homer, but thinking that all 3 starters with down years will continue being down is Yankee homerism.

[Nick]

It's funny how Sale's injury means he's toast, but Severino is expected to be great next year.

 

Sale still had one of the best xFIPs in MLB, this year. If he didn't have such horrible run support, we'd not be so down on him. He still has almost the same IP'd this year as "inning eater" Porcello.

 

Yes, Price and Eovaldi are huge question marks, but both are not so old that they can't still have some great years in them.

 

ERod is stepping up and could get even better.

 

No doubt, 3 of our starters had down years, but there's no reason to think all 3 will repeat the 2019 season in 2020.

 

Happ will turn 38 next fall. His ERA+ has gone 134>127>116>83.

Paxton turns 32 next November (140>108>107) and has yet to pitch over 161 IP.

Tanaka turns 32 next November (140>95>112>100) and hasn't been over 179 IP since '16.

Severino will likely be a beats, if he can get healthy.

 

Sox:

Sale will turn 31 early next year and has missed time for 2 straight years, but his numbers are still better than the first 3 on list above (121>157>209>110). He's got just about the best K/9 and K/BB in MLB history.

Price will turn 35 next year, and doesn't look like Justin Verlander. I get that. He did come up with some money games less than a year ago. His ERA+ has been better than the 3 on the Yankee list: 164>112>135>123>113. His K rate has been better than his career 8.8 all 4 years in Boston. (Career high, this year, at 10.7)

Eovaldi is a stretch, I admit. His first full season, like Paxton, will be his first. (112>84), Career K/9 is 6.9. 2019: 9.1. It's all about health.

ERod has become the horse we hoped he'd be. He turns 27 next year- peak prime. (95>109>116>127: constant improvement) He's on pace for 190+ IP.

 

I know I'm a homer, but thinking that all 3 starters with down years will continue being down is Yankee homerism.

 

Our pitchers as a group pitched well when it mattered the most. I'd be surprised if Yankees get the job done this year. A division title? We did it three straight years. Not a big deal without the World Series ring.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale had the same procedure Tanaka did. Inflammation (read as small tear) in the UCL, PRP and shutdown for 6-8 weeks. He returned without the upper part of his velocity. Looking at fan graphs, you’d think Tanaka lost nothing as his average bell hasn’t changed, but that’s not true. Tanaka had a fastball that he could throw from 90-97 when he came here. He’s locate 90-93 early in counts and then juice up for the K. When he came back after the rehab of the small tear, he lost the 95-97 range. His top FB velo was now 94. Losing the upper range on that FB took away the FB as a K pitch and turned him into a junker. Sale already has been having trouble attaining that upper level velocity that he needs to succeed. And the other thing you need to realize is that the PRP doesn’t always work (see Garrett Richards). He very well may end up with TJS. He was a question mark from the shoulder coming into this year. Now he’s a major question mark with the elbow going into next year. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Yanks have used him as a whipping post this year

 

And yes, Severino has his question marks, but he’s throwing with velocity (95-97 in his rehab start) and had a non surgical injury. He’s likely to pitch for the Yanks this week. I’d take the healthy guy throwing hard over the guy on the shelf any day.

 

You have to be kidding me with Price. He’s missed considerable time two of the last three seasons. This year, he couldn’t even average 5 inning per start. He’s perpetually hurt with arm related complaints and now will likely head into the offseason coming off surgery on his wrist at 34 with velocity falling. He’s done being a top level contributor. And it doesn’t help that we own him too.

 

I’ve seen the Eovaldi stuff before. He had a magical playoff last year, but I’ve seen him dominate for a month at a time before. His stuff is great and at times he can overwhelm guys with it. But he loses command or bite and he gets slaughtered then he gets hurt. He’s a middling pitcher on a middling team heading downward.

[jacksonianmarch]

And the other thing you’re missing here is that Paxton has been getting better. He’s here next year and has absolutely lights out stuff. And we will have money available with a lot coming off the books and two big contracts coming off after 2020, one that’s entirely useless (Ells). We are going to be in on the Cole sweepstakes. I know Cash took heat for passing on Corbin, but Cole is the type of guy you break the bank on.

[moonslav59]

Sale had the same procedure Tanaka did. Inflammation (read as small tear) in the UCL, PRP and shutdown for 6-8 weeks. He returned without the upper part of his velocity. Looking at fan graphs, you’d think Tanaka lost nothing as his average bell hasn’t changed, but that’s not true. Tanaka had a fastball that he could throw from 90-97 when he came here. He’s locate 90-93 early in counts and then juice up for the K. When he came back after the rehab of the small tear, he lost the 95-97 range. His top FB velo was now 94. Losing the upper range on that FB took away the FB as a K pitch and turned him into a junker. Sale already has been having trouble attaining that upper level velocity that he needs to succeed. And the other thing you need to realize is that the PRP doesn’t always work (see Garrett Richards). He very well may end up with TJS. He was a question mark from the shoulder coming into this year. Now he’s a major question mark with the elbow going into next year. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Yanks have used him as a whipping post this year

 

And yes, Severino has his question marks, but he’s throwing with velocity (95-97 in his rehab start) and had a non surgical injury. He’s likely to pitch for the Yanks this week. I’d take the healthy guy throwing hard over the guy on the shelf any day.

 

You have to be kidding me with Price. He’s missed considerable time two of the last three seasons. This year, he couldn’t even average 5 inning per start. He’s perpetually hurt with arm related complaints and now will likely head into the offseason coming off surgery on his wrist at 34 with velocity falling. He’s done being a top level contributor. And it doesn’t help that we own him too.

 

I’ve seen the Eovaldi stuff before. He had a magical playoff last year, but I’ve seen him dominate for a month at a time before. His stuff is great and at times he can overwhelm guys with it. But he loses command or bite and he gets slaughtered then he gets hurt. He’s a middling pitcher on a middling team heading downward.

 

And yet with the limited injuries, Price or Sale or both ended up with better ERA-, xFIP and WAR. Who's kidding who?

 

(Remember, German & ERod were not part of the equation, but they are listed below)

2019:

WAR

3.6 Sale

2.9 Paxton

2.9 Tanaka

2.6 ERod

2.3 Price

1.7 German

1.0 Happ

 

ERA-

79 ERod

89 Price

90 Paxton

91 Sale

91 German

96 Tanaka

111 Happ

 

xFIP

2.93 Sale

3.73 Price

3.92 Paxton

4.19 German

4.30 ERod

4.32 Tanaka

4.84 Happ

 

K/9

13.3 Sale (Best ever and while injured)

11.5 Paxton

10.7 Price

9.6 German

8.8 ERod

7.6 Happ

7.3 Tanaka

I've admitted health is a huge concern, as it is with Sevy, Paxton and Tanaka, but even with our top 3 having "down years," they still did better than yours. Expecting down years again may turn out right, but I like our odds better on the rotation ONLY.

 

Plus, even if they have down seasons, they may still end up better, AGAIN!

 

[moonslav59]

And the other thing you’re missing here is that Paxton has been getting better. He’s here next year and has absolutely lights out stuff. And we will have money available with a lot coming off the books and two big contracts coming off after 2020, one that’s entirely useless (Ells). We are going to be in on the Cole sweepstakes. I know Cash took heat for passing on Corbin, but Cole is the type of guy you break the bank on.

 

Paxton is getting better? Lights out stuff? Like Sale, ERod and Price don't have lights out stuff? Look at the K rates and xFIP.

 

Paxton turns 31 next month, has still never pitched over 161 innings and won't this year either and has seen these numbers decline (somehow, I know if he was a Sox pitcher, you'd be pointing out his age, his lack of durability and decline):

 

WAR

4.4 '17

3.7 '18

2.9 '19 (should go up some but not to 3.7)

 

xFIP

3.25 '17

3.02 '18

3.92 '19

 

ERA-

71

92

90

 

ERA+

140

108

106

 

K/9

10.3

11.7

11.5

 

You see improvement: I see decline and age and lack of durability. Things you only see in Sox pitchers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Health is a huge question. As is age for Price. As is declining velocity. Pitchers don’t accumulate WAR if they cannot pitch.

 

And now you inject ERod into the discussion. Lol. Your initial point was Sale-Price-Eo over anything we had. Now you add in your best guy. I like ERod, he’s pretty good.

[jacksonianmarch]

And my Paxton comment was on his last month. He was dominant to start the year. He had a knee issue that cost him three weeks. He was awful for a month or two after and has been nails since his bad Yanks-Sox start. He’s also young and his velocity is premium still

[moonslav59]

Health is a huge question. As is age for Price. As is declining velocity. Pitchers don’t accumulate WAR if they cannot pitch.

 

And now you inject ERod into the discussion. Lol. Your initial point was Sale-Price-Eo over anything we had. Now you add in your best guy. I like ERod, he’s pretty good.

 

The funny thing is, even with less innings, they do have better WARs!

 

Yes, I injected ERod and German and Sevy, but I'll stick to the Sale+Price+Eovaldi>Tanaka+Paxton+Happ in 2020 position.

 

I know I'm putting a lot of faith in their health, and all 3 have "issues", but so do your 3.

[harmony]

And my Paxton comment was on his last month. He was dominant to start the year. He had a knee issue that cost him three weeks. He was awful for a month or two after and has been nails since his bad Yanks-Sox start. He’s also young and his velocity is premium still

James Paxton turns 31 years old in November.

[moonslav59]

And my Paxton comment was on his last month. He was dominant to start the year. He had a knee issue that cost him three weeks. He was awful for a month or two after and has been nails since his bad Yanks-Sox start. He’s also young and his velocity is premium still

 

Oh, so now you "inject" one month sample sizes.

 

No, it was Sale-Price-Eo over Happ, Tana & Pax not Sevy or German or "anything you had."

 

If you want to go 1 by 1:

 

Sale> Pax

Price> Tan (close)

Eo=Happ

[moonslav59]

James Paxton turns 31 years old in November.

 

Apparently, 31 is only old, if it's a Sox player.

 

This "kid" has never pitched over 161 innings, and he's about to turn 31. He won't pitch 150 this year.

 

Somehow, he's going to magically get better and stronger as he ages.

[notin]

Apparently, 31 is only old, if it's a Sox player.

 

This "kid" has never pitched over 161 innings, and he's about to turn 31. He won't pitch 150 this year.

 

Somehow, he's going to magically get better and stronger as he ages.

 

The pinstripes can be rejuvenating. The dye is laced with stanislozol...

[moonslav59]

The pinstripes can be rejuvenating. The dye is laced with stanislozol...

 

They don't call 'em "pin stripes" for nothing. Each stripe has tiny needles to deliver the juice.

[moonslav59]

Yankee ERA- Since July 21st

98 Paxton

102 Green

119 Tanaka

122 Happ

124 German

192 Sabathia

 

The Sox are worse:

56 ERod

116 Eovaldi

118 Porcello

120 Sale

123 Cashner

133 Johnson

174 Price

[moonslav59]

2019 IP'd By Returning SP'ers:

Boston

173 ERod

147 Sale

107 Price

48 Eovaldi

50 Velazquez

34 Johnson

 

NYY

163 Tanaka

146 Happ

137 German

132 Paxton

58 Green

22 Loaisiga

0 Severino