Yes, we will be a playoff team this year

[moonslav59]

I'm not entirely sure how the draft works, but I believe choosing first rather than last, nets you precisely 1 extra player. You get that player, and after that, you are last in the queue. So that does not amount to boatloads of players: it amounts to one. In the NBA, this might be a game-changer, but not in MLB.

 

That's one way to look at it, but the same is true for the second pick. After they select, they are last in the queue.

 

I look at it this way: I'd rather have the 10th pick in every round than the 30th pick every round, if I am looking to rebuild my farm.

 

(Of course, having the 30th pick means you had the best record, so of course, I'd rather have that, but we are talking about farm building, here.)

 

We may end up with the 18th pick next year and maybe the 12th the year after. That does improve our odds of improving the farm than if we had the 28th and 29th picks both years. Plus, we'll get more international pool money to spend for 2 years.

 

I'm not saying we'll go from the 30th farm to number 10 in 2 years, but any improvement is welcome.

[bosoxmal]

a/o Close 8/28/2019 (I think!)

 

MINN-----80-51

 

CLEVE----77-55

 

TBAY-----76-57

 

OAK------76-55

 

SOX------71-62

[moonslav59]

a/o Close 8/28/2019 (I think!)

 

MINN-----80-51

 

CLEVE----77-55

 

TBAY-----76-57

 

OAK------76-55

 

SOX------71-62

 

7 in the loss column with the A's playing just 31 more games is a very long shot by itself. Then, we need TB, CLE or MN to totally meltdown while playing pretty easy schedules.

 

It's over.

[OH FOY]

Got ya, Thanks.

[OH FOY]

Keep the Rally Caps on, and keep hoping.

Harmony's Mariners will knock out the A's the final weekend.

[jad]

That's one way to look at it, but the same is true for the second pick. After they select, they are last in the queue.

 

I look at it this way: I'd rather have the 10th pick in every round than the 30th pick every round, if I am looking to rebuild my farm.

 

(Of course, having the 30th pick means you had the best record, so of course, I'd rather have that, but we are talking about farm building, here.)

 

We may end up with the 18th pick next year and maybe the 12th the year after. That does improve our odds of improving the farm than if we had the 28th and 29th picks both years. Plus, we'll get more international pool money to spend for 2 years.

 

I'm not saying we'll go from the 30th farm to number 10 in 2 years, but any improvement is welcome.

 

The improvement is inconsequential. It's not like you keep gaining round by round by virtue of being #1. That's why I prefer to look at it the way I did: you get one free player. One. Then the draft begins, and you are LAST for every subsequent round. (That's exactly what having thte first pick each round amounts to). That's just the mathematics of it. When you realize that, and you take into account that young baseball players are much more difficult to evaluate than, say, young basketball players, you also realize that there is no way you are going to "rebuild the farm system" by tanking unless you plan on doing that (struggling to get that lastt place position) for 10 or 15 years. What is far more important is properly evaluating young players--thatt's where your resources and energy should go.

[bkzwhitestrican]

The Red Sox odds at reaching the WC game on 8/21 were 1.8%. As of today those odds are 7.1%. It's not likely that they make it, but as a fan who has burned before by s*** that has never happened before in baseball history, I won't discount them until that number drops to 0%.

[harmony]

Keep the Rally Caps on, and keep hoping.

Harmony's Mariners will knock out the A's the final weekend.

On this date a year ago the Seattle Mariners were 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race with an 11.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2018-08-28&dateDelta=

 

Today the Red Sox are six games back in the Wild Card race with a 7.1 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc

 

The Red Sox are projected to fall just short of the 89 wins posted by the Mariners last year.

[Bellhorn04]

The improvement is inconsequential. It's not like you keep gaining round by round by virtue of being #1. That's why I prefer to look at it the way I did: you get one free player. One. Then the draft begins, and you are LAST for every subsequent round. (That's exactly what having thte first pick each round amounts to). That's just the mathematics of it.

 

That's one way to look at it but I don't think it's necessarily correct. I would much rather have picks 1 and 31 than picks 30 and 60. It's pretty much the same as having pick 1 instead of pick 60 when you look at it this way.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox odds at reaching the WC game on 8/21 were 1.8%. As of today those odds are 7.1%. It's not likely that they make it, but as a fan who has burned before by s*** that has never happened before in baseball history, I won't discount them until that number drops to 0%.

 

Right. And I always feel the same way when it's you fellas.

[TylerD]

Keep the Rally Caps on, and keep hoping.

Harmony's Mariners will knock out the A's the final weekend.

 

The team isn't quitting.... I will give them that, as they have won 7 of their last 10 games and doing it with a horribly broken rotation (Price and Sale hurt) but we haven't gained any ground. That sweep back to back by Tampa and the Yankees killed our season. I still hope this team finishes the season strong but playoffs are looking very small right now.

 

I will be cheering for Oakland in the playoffs if they make it and we don't... Would be cool to see an under dog like that knock off the Yankees.

[kenmeister]

The Red Sox odds at reaching the WC game on 8/21 were 1.8%. As of today those odds are 7.1%. It's not likely that they make it, but as a fan who has burned before by s*** that has never happened before in baseball history, I won't discount them until that number drops to 0%.

 

If our starters were firing on all cylinders, I'd be more optimistic, but right now we have E-Rod and Porcello and that's it.

[dgalehouse]

The Rays are fading . Oakland is looking at three in Yankee Stadium followed by four in Houston. Last call for the faint hearted , fickle minded , Fenway ( un ) faithful to climb back aboard the bandwagon . Otherwise , it will be leaving without you .

[kenmeister]

The Rays are fading . Oakland is looking at three in Yankee Stadium followed by four in Houston. Last call for the faint hearted , fickle minded , Fenway ( un ) faithful to climb back aboard the bandwagon . Otherwise , it will be leaving without you .

 

Eovaldi and Johnson are still in the starting rotation, and neither are effective. I don't even know who the 5th starter is right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi and Johnson are still in the starting rotation, and neither are effective. I don't even know who the 5th starter is right now.

 

With the off days we've only needed 4 starters. Price is expected to pitch on Sunday at last report.

[bosoxmal]

If our starters were firing on all cylinders, I'd be more optimistic, but right now we have E-Rod and Porcello and that's it.

I would, too, except the other teams involved are having the same problem. Last night's Ray's pitcher has been one of thr very top AL pitcjer's all year/ I watched the first 4 innings of that game and he had nothing. Colorado had 2 starters on the field who were playing in their firstML gamr.T

 

The good are gettimg netter, and the worst are getting worse.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox have been rolling but have gained no ground on the A’s. The Rays are fading as expected without their two aces. The A’s and Guardians schedules are jokes from here on out. While I understand the premise of the initial post, everyone seems aware of the position you’re in

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have been rolling but have gained no ground on the A’s. The Rays are fading as expected without their two aces. The A’s and Guardians schedules are jokes from here on out. While I understand the premise of the initial post, everyone seems aware of the position you’re in

 

The Guardians schedule isn't really a joke.

 

6 vs Min

3 vs TB

3 vs Phil

3 vs Wash

 

7 vs CHW who the Guardians are 5-7 against so far.

 

The Tiggers are the only real joke.

[oldtimer]

The Sox have been rolling but have gained no ground on the A’s. The Rays are fading as expected without their two aces. The A’s and Guardians schedules are jokes from here on out. While I understand the premise of the initial post, everyone seems aware of the position you’re in

 

It looks good for a win tonight but then the Angels will be competitive and then Minnesota and the Yankees will be a stuggle with Price just returning and Eovaldi not back to par. The offense is decent but hard to overcome the lack of pitching when trying to make up 7 in the loss column.

[Slasher9]

we got this.

i dont blame anyone that either recently or long ago quit on the season and the Red Sox.

but i sure as f*** wouldnt want to share a foxhole with you.....

 

1980, buster douglas, toms river nj LL, 2004 ALCS, lyle lovett marrying julia roberts in her prime, 2019 Red Sox....

[kenmeister]

we got this.

i dont blame anyone that either recently or long ago quit on the season and the Red Sox.

but i sure as f*** wouldnt want to share a foxhole with you.....

 

1980, buster douglas, toms river nj LL, 2004 ALCS, lyle lovett marrying julia roberts in her prime, 2019 Red Sox....

 

I wouldn't want to share a foxhole with me either, but where is your optimism coming from?

[Slasher9]

I wouldn't want to share a foxhole with me either, but where is your optimism coming from?

 

lol.

the players. they havent quit. so i'm not gonna quit on them. every night they have a good chance to win.

[fxkatt]

Cleveland is a dogged team. Oakland has talent and a schedule which ain't bad. TB needs a couple of fresh arms--little miracles from their farm system, but damn after Houston, they have 10 nice home games.

 

Let's face it, this is the 2019 AL, so not a lot of teams to rely on to beat the teams you want beaten. RedSox just got to go on a real tear, take two from the Angels, walk all over the Twins and Yanks. And then tighten your seat-belt.

[moonslav59]

lol.

the players. they havent quit. so i'm not gonna quit on them. every night they have a good chance to win.

 

They quit during those two sweeps. Now that the pressure is off and the games don't count, they look good.

[Bellhorn04]

They quit during those two sweeps. Now that the pressure is off and the games don't count, they look good.

 

If true, that really reflects badly on the character of the 2019 Sox, and on Cora as well.

[moonslav59]

If true, that really reflects badly on the character of the 2019 Sox, and on Cora as well.

 

Yup.

 

Is it proven "true," if we don't make the playoffs, and even if we win 80% of our remaining games, does that erase those two sweeps that put us out of it?

[Bellhorn04]

Yup.

 

Is it proven "true," if we don't make the playoffs, and even if we win 80% of our remaining games, does that erase those two sweeps that put us out of it?

 

Personally, I don't think it's something that can be proven.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Personally, I don't think it's something that can be proven.

 

That's what I was thinking, but I was curious how you and others view it.

 

To me, this whole stretch of good play is too little- too late and doesn't erase the fact that we blew it when we got swept twice.

[Bellhorn04]

That's what I was thinking, but I was curious how you and others view it.

 

To me, this whole stretch of good play is too little- too late and doesn't erase the fact that we blew it when we got swept twice.

 

The only thing I can really put forth is that you and I have both been saying that it's our starting pitching that killed us this year, and in those 7 games our starting pitching was dreadful.

[moonslav59]

The only thing I can really put forth is that you and I have both been saying that it's our starting pitching that killed us this year, and in those 7 games our starting pitching was dreadful.

 

Yes, and although I am not letting the pen off the hook, I think they have been blamed a lot more than they deserve.

 

Blown saves suck, and we've had way more than our share and way more than last year, but our pen also carried us to wins n many games our starters sucked in. Plus, the starters lost more games than the pen "lost" for us.

 

Simply put:

 

Pen responsible for more wins.

 

Starters responsible for more loses.

 

The game by game analysis shows this is clearly the case.